NVIDIA Risk Alert 🚨 Big Drop Ahead? Jim Cramer’s Warning & My NVDA Analysis

요약 보기

Cramer는 아마존의 3PL 서비스 발표가 페덱스의 실제 네트워크 사업과 달라 페덱스에 큰 위협이 아니라고 주장. 아서 브룩스 인터뷰는 AI 일자리 충격과 소셜미디어 규제(16세 연령제한, 학교 내 개인기기 금지)를 다룸. 후반부 내레이션은 엔비디아가 매출 85% 성장, 데이터센터 매출 거의 두 배, 가이던스 상회, 최대 180억 달러 자사주 매입에도 주가가 거의 횡보했다고 지적하며 포워드 PER 10원대~20원대 중후반 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Okay, so we're at Amazon last week, and obviously they use AI, and they came out with this competition to you is what they said, and they used one of the more key clients, Procter & Gamble, which you're on the board, and it looked like to me that well, look out, FedEx. This is this is very worrisome, but in reality, these are two different businesses entirely.

02. Very much so. I think you know, last last week's announcement versus what FedEx operates is completely different. FedEx is a true and that means if you look at the services that we offer and the word network sometimes gets misused. The true network is something you can pick up in any one part of the world and get it to any other part of the world in a couple of days.

03. And for that, you need a system like what we have here and the networks in around the world. That's not what was announced at all, and they're talking about some kind of 3PL service, which is a non-asset play. We have a 3PL business. Yeah, third party logistics, yeah. And you know, our business we're a $2 billion business.

04. That's a you know, it's Harvard Professor Arthur Brooks, he is host of the Office Hours podcast, and his latest column for the Free Press is titled Inside the Mind of an internet troll. Is that you? No. Oh, no. No, no. I'm a I'm a troll critic. I mean, it's you know, I've been writing for a long time

05. Is it autobiographical? No, no, no, no. This is just the the comment sections. They are a perfect ecosystem for people who have dark triad personality characteristics. It's where narcissists go to make other people's lives miserable. Yeah. Twitter. But I see it. With all the things we now have in in modern society to worry about.

06. Right. Is AI we're going to layer that over the top job losses from AI? I guess we are. thing. Anything that makes any technological advance that makes us feel like we're out of control, that makes it look like something's going to come along that we can't understand entirely that actually might take our jobs or

07. Relationships is going to freak us out, but there's nothing new about that. We've been freaking out about something for, you know, generations. It turns out that this one is just a little bit more advanced, a little bit more down the road is the way that that works. But, what we can probably expect is that, yeah, there will be displacement, there will be a lot of trouble from it, but within a not too long a future, we'll figure out how to use it.

08. And once we figure out how to use it, it's going to make our life a lot better. So, in figuring out how to use it, can can the government help with with guardrails, or will the free market handle it? Will there be uh pains, growing pains as we uh you know, try certain things and we realize they don't work.

09. I mean, we really didn't manage social media very well with our kids and It's a very, very hard thing to to very hard thing to regulate, but the key thing thing to keep in mind is that the the way that artificial intelligence works, people think that it's extremely human, it's not. The essence of humanity, the essence of what it means for us to be human is something that occurs in the right side of our brains, the right hemisphere of our brains.

10. That's where mystery and meaning exist, that's where love and and happiness exist. The left side of our brain is analysis and engineering and technology. And what AI is really good at is helping us solve very complicated left brain problems. The problem right now is that people are using it for these right brain things.

11. They're using it to get advice as if it were their therapist. They're using it for the girlfriend experience or to be their buddy, and that's why they feel lonelier and lonelier. When a technological phenomenon actually is used to solve your loneliness, you're going to get lonelier is the bottom line.

12. Just ask anybody who's gotten stuck on social media or a dating app to find the perfect partner. Well, you know, AI didn't replace social media, so we we're That was my point. We're layering layering more and more of these potentially depressing things that cause depression or cause inadequacy or insecurity.

13. It it's hitting us from all sides. Yeah, but if we use it wrong, that's exactly the case. You know, social media's promise is that it would wipe out loneliness. It made loneliness worse, of course, except for people who use it appropriately. And we're finding that younger People today are actually better at social media than people slightly older than them.

14. My kids are 28, 26, and 23. Now, two of them are US Marines, so they have restrictions on how they can use social media, but all of my kids use it in such a way that it doesn't make them lonelier. It doesn't cut them off from other people. And the younger you are, the more likely you are to have figured out how to use that.

15. And that same thing will happen with AI. There can be problems getting from here to there. Right. Well, what is the proper way that to use it then? The proper way to use AI is to do the things that you actually that employ the left side of your brain, the complicated the tasks where do you go for the other side?

16. For the other side, you go to your family. family. You go to church. You actually hang out with your friends. You do all the stuff that people actually find love in their life. Animals. Maybe comfort. If dogs are your thing, absolutely. But the whole point is, look, But not cats. You know perfectly what makes you happy.

17. I know what makes you happy is being with your family, is being with the people that you actually love. And there's no technological intermediation for that. AI will never substitute for that. The more you try, the worse it gets. And so, what do you expect at this point in terms of guardrails? What what what what If you could design them for the government to not screw things up?

18. Yeah, I mean, probably we we should start with what people are talking about with proper guardrails for social media and take some lessons from that. And and what we're learning is that, you know, proper um you know, age guardrails, making sure that we are we're not using them inside institutions where people are supposed to be talking to each other in real life.

19. age cutoff? So, Rahm Emanuel's out there saying that we should be like Australia and some other countries in Europe, 16 years old. that's right to begin with. And that's Jonathan Haidt, you know, from from NYU. He talks about that. I think that's the best way to do it is to start with 16. 13 is too young.

20. But actually, they they the better institutional guardrail for all these technologies is out of the schools. I mean, there shouldn't be a classroom in America from from kindergarten through PhD where you're allowed to use your personal devices. You shouldn't have them in there. And But it's not it's not just personal devices.

21. At this point, every kid is issued a laptop from the school. And by the way, that's probably & any time, let's start the video. Nvidia just delivered another monster quarter, and yet the stock barely moved afterward. That's the how became one of the strangest pattern on the Wall Street. Yeah, every quarter annual report number that would send almost any other company scoring 20% to 13% and every quarter investors somehow act like it's a normal.

22. But the reality is these numbers are not normal. Revenue grew by 85% year over the year. Data centers revenue nearly doubled, and the gross margin is still around 25%. The company guided several billion dollars above the expectation again. And Nvidia authorized another massive 18 billion dollars buyback while also increasing its dividends dramatically.

23. For most companies, that kind of news would trigger absolute euphoria in the stock. Instead, Nvidia traded almost flat. Why? Because the market has become so accustomed to Nvidia dominating that incredible result are now treated as expected. Analysts are calling this the law of large number problem.

24. When a company become worth nearly 5 trillion dollars, investors begin to assuming growth must eventually slow. Expectation become harder and harder to exceed because the company is already operating at almost unimaginable scale. But Nvidia keep breaking those assumptions anyway. Even analysts covering the stock closely admitted this quarter was stronger than usual.

25. Several called it the one of the Nvidia better earning reports in the recent memory because both the beat and forward guidance exceed the expectation by wider margin than the normal. The company beat some forecast by roughly 2 billion dollars and guided around 4 billion dollars higher than consensus.

26. That's extraordinary for a company of this size. and yet the stock barely reacted. Some analysts now believe Nvidia is actually one of the cheapest AI stock in the market despite being the most valuable company in the world. That sound insane until you look at the number. Many analysts say that Nvidia is trading in the high teens or low 20s or forward earning while still growing revenue above 80%.

27. That combination almost never exists in the market history. One analyst put it bluntly, there may be not another multi-trillion dollar company on earth anywhere close to this fast. And what make Nvidia even more unique is that growth is actually accelerating, not slowing down. That's the part many investors still struggle to process.

28. Normally massive companies eventually hit growth ceiling. Nvidia keep moving the ceiling higher and the center of this entire story remains artificial intelligence infrastructure. And according to nearly every major analyst on Wall Street, the AI trade is still very much alive. The , enterprise adoption continue accelerating.

29. So what is in AI projects are expanding globally and entirely a new categories like robotics, edge AI, physical AI, and isogenetic AI are the only beginning to emerge. That's why many analysts believe the Nvidia opportunity extend far beyond the current expectation. One of the most interesting development from this earning report was Nvidia growing CPUs business.

30. Management revealed that CPUs alone could generate around 20 billion dollars in annual revenue. Think about that for a second. For the most semiconductor companies, 20 billion dollars CPUs business will define