저자: BillFleckenstein · 외국인
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결론: 달러 반등이 끝나가고 금이 1,300달러로 오를 수 있으나, 2018년에는 연준 QT와 일본은행 QE 축소로 시장의 큰 반전이 예상된다. [달러·금·원자재] 달러 강세(반등)가 막바지에 이르렀고 약세로 되돌아갈 가능성이 있다고 봄. 유가는 2% 상승, 채권은 강세, 귀금속(은·금)은 각각 1% 상승. 금은 1,300달러 부근이 큰 움직임의 핵심 레벨로 언급됨. [주식시장] 당일 증시는 보합 마감. 특별히 흥미로운 흐름은 없으나 주식시장 전반에 대한 긍정적 통찰은 부족하다고 평가. 그린 페이퍼(블록체인 관련) 등 일부 종목에서 투기적 움직임이 있었음. [2018년 전망] 연준의 QT 확대와 일본은행의 QE 축소로 2018년 시장에 큰 반전이 있을 가능성이 높다고 봄. 중앙은행이 돈을 찍어낸 결과로 현재 시장 수준이 형성되었으므로, 유동성 회수 시 실제 문제가 발생할 것. [비트코인] 비트코인 매수자들은 주로 가격을 추격하는 것이며, 과거 초기 투자로 큰 돈을 번 사람들은 투자 천재라기보다 운이 좋았던 것이라는 취지. 비트코인 수익을 금 보유자가 가져야 한다는 주장은 근거가 없다고 반박. [질의응답] 중앙은행 대차대조표 확대는 전례 없는 현상이며, 연준이 QE를 시작했더라도 유동성을 회수하는 과정은 불가능에 가까움. 개인 투자자의 GDX/DIA 포지션 관련 질문에 대해 GDX 30달러는 중요한 저항선이 아니며, 25~26달러를 돌파하면 큰 움직임이 시작될 것이라고 답변. [리스크] 중앙은행 유동성 축소 시 시장 붕괴 가능성, 인위적 통화 공급에 기댄 자산 가격 상승의 지속 불가능성.
다듬은 글
cursing a scold surges toward $1,300 plus the key level for the big move today the US dollar appeared in danger of reversing its counter trend rally as gold surged toward $1300 plus the key level for the big move by Bill Fleckenstein president of Fleckenstein capital November 22nd economic predictions the stock market was an eventful all day and closed about flat however there was some intense speculation beneath the surface for example right blockchain away from stocks green paper was about the only interesting feature of today's trading as it was quite a bit weaker the action makes me feel like the recent dollar rally has run its course as it perhaps gives way to renew the weakness oil gained 2% fixed income was higher and the metals rallied with silver and gold gaining 1% of peace they won't miss their water till the well runs dry there is still not a lot to say about the stock market that is newer insightful that said I also feel like 2018 is liable to see a big reversal given the increase in Qt on the part of the Fed and the cutting back of QE on the part of the Bank of Japan we must remember that the only reason the markets are where their is because central banks have printed as much as they have thus there is no chance they are going to get very far with their cutting back slash withdrawals schemes before there are real problems included below are three questions and answers from the queue and us with Bill Fleckenstein confidences key question just read an article about these young people who bought bitcoins back in 2011 and now our millionaires and just as how much of an investment genius there versus perhaps how lucky they are there is also story an article about how one person won't sell since he knows it will go more and more reminds me of my brother who bought $500 share of the can my stock at around 20 dollars for IPO and it went to something like four hundred and fifty dollar but he didn't sell since he thought it would go up more or my cousin who owns a house in Fort Lauderdale he bought for three hundred and fifty dollars Kay it was appraised by a real estate agent at seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars around 2006 a year later when value had gone down to seven hundred thousand dollars he thought of selling but didn't want to leave fifty thousand dollars on the table so figure to heat so when it went back up now it's back to around three hundred and fifty thousand dollars so lots of stories but the reader who sent in the comment that the Bitcoin returns should be ours as gold holders that did hit a nerve answer from Fleck why should they be ours bitcoin buyers are largely chasing price like Fang buyers should Fang money belong to gold holders to gold will do very well when confidence and central bank swans that will be impossible question bill what is being done by the Seabees is unprecedented at a normal market exhaustion leads to the downturn but if your source of capital is printed out of thin air can you not buy indefinitely just crazy how long this has gone on at the expense of savers answer from Fleck but the Fed has started QE part of the magic is the fact that you are supposed to declare victory and withdraw all the liquidity that will be impossible key level for big move question bill I have two minor heavy accounts and about six months ago and one of them swapped GDX for Dia in essence 15% net Delta positive for me using blind squirrel stock market purchase I just want it to feel like the mignonette twits that are making gobs of cash in the market I kept the other minor account and really just want to break even as they say breakeven is GTX 30 roughly there must be tons of hackers minor investors also looking to just get out maybe at that same obvious recent peak would you agree that that gtx proxy level of 30 or so will be difficult to pierce and stay above should we get there and say a year or two that level stands out like a mountain top thanks much answer from fleck no I don't think 30 will matter that much I think once we finally clear 25-26 I think the big move will be underway I don't see 30 as a big deal just because it matters to you doesn't mean much in reality and it isn't a big spot on the charts either Imoh you a year later when value had gone down to $700,000 he thought of selling but didn't want to leave $50,000 on the table so figured to heat sell when it went back up now it's back to around three hundred and fifty thousand dollars so lots of stories but the reader who sent in the comment that the Bitcoin returns should be ours as gold holders that did hit a nerve answer from Fleck why should they be ours Bitcoin buyers are largely chasing price like Fang buyers should Fang money belong to gold holders to gold will do very well when confidence in central bank swans that will be impossible question bill what is being done by the CPC is unprecedented at a normal market exhaustion leads to the included below are three questions and answers from the queue and as with Bill Fleckenstein confidences key question just read an article about these young people who bought bitcoins back in 2011 and our millionaires and just as how much of an investment genius there versus perhaps how lucky they are there is also story an article about how one person won't sell since he knows it will go more and more reminds me of my brother who bought five hundred dollars share of the can buy stock at around 20 dollars for IPO and it went to something like four hundred and fifty dollar but he didn't sell since he thought it would go up more or my cousin who owns a house in Fort Lauderdale he bought for three hundred and fifty dollars K it was appraised by a real estate agent at seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars around 2006 downturn but if your source of capital is printed out of thin air can you not buy indefinitely just crazy how long this has gone on at the expense of savers answer from Fleck but the Fed has started QE part of the magic is the fact that you're supposed to declare victory and withdraw all the liquidity that will be impossible key level 4 big move question bill I have two minor heavy accounts and about six months ago and one of them swapped EDX for Dia in essence 15% net Delta positive for me using blind squirrel stock market purchase I just want it to feel like the mignonette twits that are making gobs of cash in the market I kept the other minor account and really just want to break even as they say cursing the scold surges toward $1300 plus the key level for the big move today the US dollar appeared in danger of reversing its counter trend rally as gold surged toward $1300 plus the key level for the big move by Bill Fleckenstein president of Fleckenstein capital November 22nd economic predictions the stock market was an eventful all day and closed about flat however there was some intense speculation beneath the surface for example right blockchain away from stocks green paper was about the only interesting feature of today's trading as it was quite the bit weaker the action makes me feel like the recent dollar rally has run its course as it perhaps gives way to renew the weakness oil gained two percent fixed income was higher and the metals rallied with silver and gold gaining one percent of piece they won't miss their water till the well runs dry there is still not a lot to say about the stock market that is newer insightful that said I also feel like 2018 is liable to see a big reversal given the increase in Qt on the part of the Fed and the cutting back of QE on the part of the Bank of Japan we must remember that the only reason the markets are where they're is because central banks have printed as much as they have thus there is no chance they are going to get very far with their cutting back slash withdrawals schemes before there are real problems
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