저자: DanIves · 외국인
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애플이 아이폰 가격을 약 150달러 인상한 것은 메모리 가격 급등 때문이며, 시장이 과잉 반응했다고 봄. 인상폭은 이익률 방어 수준이고 이탈률은 최대 1~2%에 그쳐 EPS 영향은 2~3% 수준으로 추정. 애플은 3년짜리 하드웨어 사이클 초입이며 공급망 대응 능력이 있음. 메가캡 조정은 AI 설비투자 자금조달 부담 때문이고, 6~9개월 내 수익화가 확인되면 반전 가능. 메모리·칩·공급망 수혜주는 긍정적.
다듬은 글
Now, let's bring in Wedbush's Dan Ives for more on this. How do you read this today? What is the impact going to be on Apple? It feels like there's a lot of pain here. I'm looking at a quote from Tim Cook to the Wall Street Journal in mid-June where he said, "Quote, this is a 100-year flood. I've never seen anything like it in any area in over 40 years."
Yeah, look, they they had to do this and and it's our view a $150 price increase in the iPhone as well. But when you put it and you look at gross margins and what this also We're talking about 1 2% churn, maybe, on some of the high-end products. And I just think they're trying to get ahead of this. Now, ultimately, Intel and other partnerships they'll have, they'll be able to sort of navigate this.
They're supply chain tacticians. But it just speaks to it was sort of a no-ma. They had to now raise the prices. This was the right time to make sure they do it that margins do not degrade. Trying to get ahead of it. I mean, they're reacting to it. How are they How are they getting ahead of something?
They're They're reacting to what they're seeing in the marketplace. Yeah, Scott, I think at these price increases, I I would actually view it they waited as long as they could. I mean, you could argue they could have done this 6 9 months ago. And the reason they're doing this now is that they realized when it comes to, you know, their elasticity and what they believe churn could be at.
When you look at the actual increases, we're talking, like we said, max 1 2% churn. So, I think they recognized, despite what's happened with the stock, and I view it as an overreaction relative to what it's going to actually be from a demand perspective. The supply chain dictated they held off as long as they could, but I think there'll be less price increases relative when it comes to iPhone.
And they're going into a 3-year massive hardware cycle. They need to do this at the beginning of it. Sure, but there's Why is there an overreaction in the stock if there's going to be a reaction to gross margins? Whatever they do from a pricing standpoint, as you mentioned what the increases are, that's not going to fully make up or offset for the cost of what they have to pay for memory.
Yeah, I'd say I think when you put it through numbers, I mean you're talking maybe from an EPS perspective, like I said like less than 2 3%. So what when you actually flow that through the model and there's flexibility in there relative to street numbers as well going into next 12 18 months. And I just think we sit here a year from now and the question will be how come we have not seen the degradation so far that we expected based on the the sell-off in gross margins and in EPS.
They are supply chain tacticians. Cook's handing in the baton to turn us, but he will still be there in terms of and his team in terms of navigating the supply chain and that's important because of what they need to do to make sure that they keep margins essentially where they are. I mean it's not just an Apple problem.
We had news this afternoon. In fact, Microsoft reaching session lows today on news that they're raising Xbox prices. Quote, "Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than two and a half X and we we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027." That that tells you that this issue isn't going away anytime soon and Apple is far from the only one that's having to deal with these problems.
Look, we're talking about the historic price increases that we're seeing in memory. You see it to the benefit of Micron as can Samsung, but you know, Apple, Microsoft, many others throughout the supply chain, they're going to need to navigate. But I think the most important thing here is what is it going to translate to in numbers?
And I think when you actually look at the next 1 2 3 years going into what's going to be just a massive hardware cycle for for Apple. I think they've done it sort of baby steps here when you actually look at the overall price increases and that's the smartest move. But, Apple's been here before. It's not their first rodeo.
They will be able to navigate. They'll have other partnerships and then then they'll be on the other side of this. And I think that's why we will look at this as an overreaction relative to to this news. What do you make of what's happened with the mega caps? I mean, you've got some of these names in a full-fledged bear market.
You have others that are decidedly in correction territory. Now, I'm talking from their most recent 52-week highs. You've got to be concerned about that. Are we entering an environment where investors think they've squeezed all they can out of these names for the time being and they're just going to rotate into other areas and then over the second half of this year, those names are going to underperform?
Look, I think there's definitely concerns. I mean, my you know, the calls that we're getting from investors obviously is is massively up relative to what we're seeing on on large cap. I think part of it is that AI is being funded by all the hyperscalers. From Microsoft to Oracle to you know, to Google to everyone.
But, the reality is the stocks underperform because it's almost like they're funding the AI party. But, the ones that are benefiting are from memory to chip to supply chain to some of the infrastructure plays. I think investors are right now it's we're in this CapEx we see, but we haven't seen monetization.
Next 6 to 9 months, we see that. As we see that, I think you see a huge reversal. And then you start to get some of their pricing power back. And I think the sell-off you've seen here is I think some of it's misguided, but some of it is just a fear of that this is going to continue as they fund it, everyone else benefits, but they're ultimately from a large cap perspective, they're the ones that the CapEx, the trillions of dollars, that's ultimately what the ripple effect that we're seeing in terms of this AI revolution play out.
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