🚨 BE PREPARED! Peter Schiff's Bold Predictions For The Global Economy - Latest Update

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결론: 일본과 미국의 인플레이션·금리 구조 한계로 중앙은행과 금융권에 큰 압력이 가해지며, 금융 취약성과 생활비 부담이 악화될 것이라는 비관론. 일본: 6월 CPI 전년비 3.3%(5월보다 0.1%p 상승), 근원 4.2%. 일본은행은 여전히 마이너스 단기금리(-0.1%)와 10년물 금리 0.5% 상한(YCC)을 고수하며 인플레이션 목표 2%를 강조. 금리 정상화 시 국채 금리 급등과 재정 위기가 불가피하다고 주장. 엔화는 발표 후 약 1.25% 하락했으나 붕괴는 아직 아님. 일본 vs 미국: 일본은 무역흑자와 채권국 지위가 있으나 미국은 쌍둥이 적자와 최대 채무국. 일본이 미국채를 매각해 부채를 줄일 수 있지만 미국은 그럴 여력이 없다고 평가. 미국 금리·은행: 연방준비제도가 금리를 약 5%까지 올렸으나 추가 인상은 어렵다고 진단. 대형은행 3~4곳 실패, 정부 지원 없이는 더 많은 은행이 무너질 수 있음. 상업용 부동산 연체 확대(예: 호텔 운영사 대출 상환 불능), 수년간 수억 달러 규모 부채 만기 도래. 금리 상승이 은행 자산(장기 대출·국채·MBS)을 훼손한다고 경고. 주거·임대: 임대료가 소득의 30%(역대 최고)로 상승, 공과금 등 추가 비용으로 생활수준 하락, 제2·제3 일자리 증가. 주택 거래는 매도자 호가와 매수자 구매력 간 괴리로 역대 최저 거래량. 30년 고정금리 주택담보대출 보유자는 이사 시 금리 상승 때문에 집을 팔기 어려움. 표현의 자유: 정부 비판 발언 보호의 중요성 강조, 소셜미디어의 정부 입장 억압 공조 비판.

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01. and if the government knows that they can't be criticized then that opens the government up they have a lot more opportunity to be oppressive if they don't think there's any way to speak out against it but if the FED continues on this trajectory uh the government might not be able to provide this support and a lot of these banks that have you know gotten a reprieve are going to fail [ I'm talking about inflation in Japan and the most recent data coming out of Japan for CPI in June is a year-over-year increase of 3.3 percent and that is actually a tenth higher than the year-over-year rate in May So based on the Japanese CPI we're we're getting even higher inflation so inflation is going up and it on the um on the core though there was a slight decline in the June numbers from 4.3 to 4.2 but still now you're talking about core inflation right in Japan better than four percent now for years the Japanese government was telling the Japanese people that the problem in Japan was not enough inflation of course that wasn't the problem that was one of the bright spots of the Japanese economy that at least they didn't have a rising cost of living or at least the cost of living was Rising uh very slowly but the Japanese government said no no we need more inflation the only reason we don't have a stronger economy is inflation was too low that was the lie that they continued to tell and under the pretext of that lie the bank of Japan printed tremendous amounts of Japanese Yen and use that Japanese yen to buy up government bonds and that enabled the Japanese government to go into debt selling those bonds to the jgb the problem now is that they've succeeded Beyond uh you know their expectations in raising the inflation rate because their goal was two percent well they've clearly overshot it in fact based on the official numbers this is the first time in eight years that headline inflation in Japan is higher than the us because our headline number not our core just a headline is three percent so in Japan you're at 3.3 that's 10 percent greater but what happened the other day is the Japanese government or the bank of Japan came out and reiterated their commitment to achieving their two percent inflation goal as if they haven't done it yet apparently the bank of Japan is still not convinced that inflation is high enough to qualify for two percent even though we're at 3.3 and rising and so to make sure that we've got two percent inflation and it's here to stay even though it's 50 higher than that the bank of Japan is committing itself to maintaining negative interest rates they still have short-term interest rates negative 10 basis points in the face of rising inflation well north of two percent they still have the pedal to the metal saying we need more inflation we're not convinced that inflation is here to stay and in fact the bank of Japan reiterated their commitment to control the yield yield curve control on the 10-year jgb to keep yields below half a percent now the yields half a percent inflation is 3.3 what idiot would lend money to the Japanese government for 10 years at 40 basis points when inflation is 330 basis points well no idiot that's the problem the only one is dumb enough to buy those bonds is the Bank of Japan but they know that if they take away the yield curve control if they stop creating more inflation then yields are going to spike and that's going to force the Japanese government into a untenable predicament because they won't be able to make the payments on the debt and there's going to have to be a massive Day of Reckoning in Japan and So to avoid that political decision the bank of Japan is continuing to create more inflation claiming that there's not enough now at some point the markets are gonna Stop Believing the bank of Japan in fact the Japanese Yen fell about you know one and a quarter percent on on this announcement but we haven't had a complete collapse yet of of the Japanese Yen but as the markets start to see through this charade it is going to put tremendous pressure on the bank of Japan but the reality is the United States isn't even a worse predicament that is Japan because of our twin deficits Japan still operates with the trade surplus and Japan is still a creditor Nation the United States is the world's biggest debtor Nation we owe a fortune to Japan the Japanese government holds over a trillion of U.S treasuries so one way the Japanese can try to alleviate their problem is by dumping those treasuries they can sell those treasuries and then use the proceeds to pay down some of their own debt we don't have that luxury you know we owe everybody we're not we're not a creditor like Japan but the bank of Japan is already trying to spare Japanese politicians from having to make these difficult choices that they would have to make if the bank of Japan were to allow rates to rise well the FED is going to be in a similar predicament soon yes the FED has been able to raise rates we got interest rates up to five percent but we really can't move them much higher because we've already seen the adverse consequences in the banking sector we've already seen the failure of three or four major Banks many more Banks would have also failed but for the government backstops but if the FED continues on this trajectory uh the government might not be able to provide this support and a lot of these banks that have you know gotten a reprieve are going to fail in fact more negative news in the commercial real estate market I was reading about more high-profile defaults uh on Commercial Real Estate um Sterling of what is it um green light I forget for uh the name of the company that they operate all these you know hotels and um they you know just couldn't make their payments on a couple hundred million dollar uh loan uh on a piece of property uh with big warnings out there about the commercial real estate sector and all of this debt I think it's like a half a billion dollars of debt coming due in the next year several billion over the next few years and there's not going to be any way to finance this because the value of the collateral has already collapsed and again I've been warning about that for years and years when so many people on Wall Street were looking forward to Rising interest rates because they thought that Rising interest rates would help the banks earn more money because they could charge higher rates I was one of the few people pointing out the damage that higher rates was going to do to their balance sheets to their assets to the loans uh the long-term loans that they had already committed to all of the treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that were on their books and so all of these chickens are coming home to roost right now and this is putting a lot of pressure on the FED in fact I was reading an article today on on rents and Moody's uh you know has been tracking rents for about 20 years and they're looking at um you know what the typical homeowner uh pays in in interest on are not an interest in rent as a percentage of of of of his income and when they first started keeping track about 20 years ago the average renter spent 23 percent of his income on rent and 10 years ago that was up to 26 percent today it's now a record 30 percent of monthly income going to pay the rent now this is also pre-tax income so obviously your after-tax income is diminished but they're just looking at your pre-tax income which is not really your take-home pay but of your pre-tax income people are spending 30 percent of that on their rent now what does this mean this means that people have less money left over for other things or if they're trying to save up a down payment to buy a home well they have less money available to do that if they're spending more on their rent but that's not your only cost if you're you know renting renting an apartment is is the rent because you also have to pay utilities and those uh rates have been going up so there's other costs that a renter is going to have to pay that relate to renting a place and all that stuff is going up and this is evidence of a diminishing standard living that is why a lot more people have to take second and third jobs because more of their income is going to rent now 30 percent is the average that means that there are some people who are actually paying a lot more then 30 percent of their income on rent and that is a that is a big number but you know I was reading this article too it was more of an advertisement really disguised as an article from a company that's in the mortgage business and they're trying to persuade people to buy homes because of course when you buy a home you take out a mortgage now I did read too that turnover in the housing market is now also at a record low because there's a huge spread right now between what sellers want for their homes and what buyers can afford to pay because the sellers are still looking at prices from a year or two ago but buyers can't afford those prices because mortgage rates are so much higher than they were a year or two ago so there's a big disconnect between what sellers think their homes are worth and what buyers can actually afford to pay for those homes so it's a huge spread and so right now what's happening is just there's no transactions because the sellers don't want to come down the buyers can't come up right so it's like a deadlock and so you're seeing minimal turnover in in houses and again another thing and I pointed this out was that a lot of people one of the reasons they don't want to sell their homes is because they can't buy another one because they can't Port their mortgage if you've got a 30-year fixed rate mortgage on a home the only way you can keep that mortgage is to stay in your home if you sell and try to buy a different home well you're gonna have to get a brand new mortgage at a much much higher rate so that is really Frozen a lot of people in their in in their current homes and that may be a reason too that people may even pay a mortgage if they're under water because what they're really trying to preserve is not their home but their mortgage that's their great asset in that they've borrowed all this money on the cheap and they have you know 25 years or how many years left to pay it back and and so I'm a free market libertarian so we really are at odds with one another uh with that respect but where we have some strong common ground is freedom of speech freedom of expression and we both know that the most important speech that needs protection is political speech in particular speech that is critical of the government that's when free speech is the most important your freedom to criticize the government and also free speech is about protecting unpopular speech because popular speech that doesn't need any protection if you're just gonna say something that everybody likes well fine you you can say it where you need protection is when you want to say something that a lot of people don't like right there is an old expression I may disagree with what you say but I will defend uh your right to say it today it's the opposite I disagree with what you're saying and you have no right to say it right that's what the left is now all about in fact on the panel somebody pointed out and then Robert Kennedy Jr reiterated uh because one of the women that was up there was from the American civil liberties Union and I again I I I I disagreed with a lot of what they did but at least they were on the right page when it came to freedom of speech I mean they would they would defend the right of a Nazi to free speech and you have to do that you have to defend speech that you don't like because if you're not willing to defend speech that you don't like that you don't believe in freedom of speech and eventually it's your speech uh that's not going to be allowed but again the most important speech that needs to be uninhibited is when you're critical of the government so when the government says something or does something you have to be able to criticize it and what's been going on with social media was the coordinated effort on the part of government and social media to suppress speech that contradicted the government or government narrative and that's precisely the type of speech that needs to be protected the most even if the government is right even if what the government is saying is right you have to be able to criticize the government because if you can't criticize the government when they're right well then you definitely won't be able to criticize them when they're wrong and if the government knows that they can't be criticized then that opens the government up they have a lot more opportunity to be oppressive if they don't think there's any way to speak out against it so you always have to be able to question the government you can't say well it's so important this piece of information like when it comes to covet it's so important that nobody should be able to criticize the government during this important time you cannot give up that principle just because it's convenient