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All right, ladies and gentlemen, I hope you're having a wonderful morning. It is April 29th, 2026, and you have one of the biggest days ahead. It is not too often all of your mega caps report except Apple. They're going to come the next day. You have the last Jerome Powell and you have the last Jerome Powell and
Oh, wait, wait. Is this going Hold on. This one went a little too quick. Hold on. My bad. Uh but yeah, the first part is uh we have all of this stuff going on today. You're going to have your Jerome Powell, but then oil is actually hitting a new high right now. Not on WTI, but Brent is hitting a new material high.
So that is one of the pillars that we talked about. You got to watch out for that. But then you also had comments out of Trump today saying no more Mr. Nice Guy. And this is the thing I was telling everybody, man. Very simple. What you got to be looking out for is that you are literally dealing with a no timeline situation.
That is a big difference as this war has started. You're not hearing them say tomorrow, the next day, we're going to go here on this day. So, it is creating quite the interesting scenario. So, Chattonia, I hope you're ready for all of it. I hope you're feeling good and have a wonderful good morning.
It's game time, baby. So on that note, you guys know the vibes. Before we chase a dollar, before we try to enrich ourselves, we must pay homage to a very special group of people. One that has made a sacrifice that most of us never have and ever will. And I am talking about the veterans of the United States of America.
So on behalf of the cult, the people here, the people not here, want to give a huge special shout out all the active service, past service, anybody who has served this great nation. I don't know, man. I don't know what you feel about the war, the conflict, but the fact you could even express that however you feel with all the freedom you got, man.
I hope you never take it for granted. And I hope you never try to take away the honor of somebody and all the great people who have given so much for their nation and the people that they have never met. So, for real veterans, thank you guys for everything. God bless every single one of you. I hope you guys are a good I hope you get the benefit off all this.
I hope y'all are understanding how much we love and appreciate you and I hope none of you ever forget your freedom and you always use that baby. So, God bless you and your families and big shout out to everybody else out there giving back to their local communities. All the doctors, nurses, teachers, firefighters, police officers, the janitors, the coaches, the garbage men, everybody making their communities run, baby.
God bless you and thank you. But ladies and gentlemen, please rise. Place your right hand over your heart. Say it with me. I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America and to the republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all. Baby.
Oh, it's game time, Chattadonia. Hard. Oh my goodness. Happy Wednesday. Happy POW day. The last POW. The last POW. The big earnings. Oil. Oil. Oil, bro. Oil. Oh, man. And so it's not crude oil. Nobody can crude oil. Remember, we got a lot of crude oil. I know. Even though oil is at 104, again, Brent crude has hit a new high at throughout all this conflict.
So again, it kind of relates to uh some of the stuff we brought up there with uh uh what's it called with the uh Brent crude export ban or the WTI export ban. We talked about that, but it's like you have you're watching an interesting dynamic. So, out of those pillars we've been talking about the last couple of weeks, you got to be mindful of that because you did have way better earnings today, but yeah, that is creating quite the dynamic uh oil will make Staples not run for a little bit.
I mean, until uh unless that gap comes back up. If WTI goes up more, I think that'll start affecting the staples. But, I mean, it def it's definitely a headwind uh without a doubt. But it as far as like the severity of it, I think that'll depend on WTI versus Brent. So, let's get it, baby. Uh, we got about 2 minutes.
I have a couple plays. Uh, Meta, Microsoft, NXPI, Bloom Energy, uh, Wheat, and Visa. And then you got to manage any of those other earnings plays. I think those will be critical. Uh, again, I think, uh, who is the most? Google is the most crowded earnings trade, and then, uh, Microsoft is the least crowded.
We'll see what our NiveDAS do and we'll have a good time. And now you got a minute, man. You got a minute and 30. Get ready, bro. Are you ready? I I hope you're ready. Uh, you should be ready. Did you wake up early today? You got to wake up now, bro. I don't know. You just had your [crying] Trump oil companies discussing the uh continuing the blockade.
I don't know about Oh, I just want to hear it, bro. I'm Ready? So yeah, there's only two things I want to hear. That's it, man. He wants to fight you, man. Oh, sad. All right, man. Don't pump on your homies. Get some good info. They hate AI art cuz it's not really art. Okay. Wow. All right, man. 30 seconds.
Uh if you need anything, let me know. Again, I do think uh you're going to have a ton of post earnings plays. Uh again, some of them gapped up pretty big like Bloom Energy, NXPI, and then uh what's the other one? Uh it was STX uh yesterday. And then we're going to see the main ones that are reporting.
But yeah, you got to make up your decision. And I think a lot of management and probably after the first hour or two, we're going to do nothing. Uh you'll do you'll probably have activity here in the morning, but remember it's going to be Powell. 3 2 1 round one fight. Alrighty. So Spy only up uh down by 008.
Everything 008 on the SPY. Uh.19 on the Russell and then the Dow is down by 008. I think NASDAQ was green earlier. Did that flip? No, NASDAQ actually opened up green. So not bad. Again, oil is still climbing again. I'm not worried about this one. still 20% from the highs, but essentially one of your danger zones already broke on Brent.
I again I've said that like three times already this morning. So that should uh tell you the gravity of this situation, but all nonviolent escalation. All right, Apple down one, Microsoft one. Oh, where's your boy Niveda? Niveda down.5. Uh let's see. I don't know where those premiums are at. see Jesus from the start.
Uh, one of the further out the monies came back to the same price. Same thing with the lottos. They're actually moving down now or at least on the bid. All right. And then Microsoftian, where's the other one? Bloom Energy. They're up 25. Gez. And then NXPI. That's another 20% post earnings right now.
Uh and then who's the other one? STX up 16. Let's see these. Oh, and watch healthcare, too. I don't know if they're going to do day two, but they're actually healthcare, I think, is running because it's underpositioned. That's actually been one of the the least favorable trades. So when you look at that kind of crazy runup then Meta.
Yeah. I don't know. I still don't know what happened there with Quali World. GSK. Uh GSK is down six. Remember them with Fizer. Uh but who was it? XLP is down. IGV is down 17. That could be a mix of all of them. Even Palant, all the big ones are down actually. Oh yeah, you had Robin Hood earnings. They're down 11.
And then Coca-Cola's continuing from yesterday. Nokia 52- week high. NXPI, that one's still going, dude. Again, you have three 20enters is kind of nuts. And then Spy, first couple candles are down. Yeah, Visa's even up 92 actually. That's actually very big for them. That's definitely two standard deviations.
Visa does not move like that. Seek Jesus from the start. I don't think those will hit. But let's see. Oh, where's wheat as well? Let's see where Visa is at. Oh, maybe they do actually. It's very big gap up. Wow. So very big. Very very big. or crafts. Please hold while we connect your call. I'm going give that one a second.
Dude, a lot of these post earnings ran up way too fast. 20%. So many of them. Intel. Wait, what the [ __ ] Intel 87 bucks. My goodness. My goodness. And then Coreweave. So, yeah. Again, I'm looking at a couple of the pre-ear. They're all up a lot. I mean, you guys know the vibes on some of these. They're going to gap up there.
So, if some of them keep going and take extra couple percents, they are going to rip, but at the same time, it might be better to wait. Nvidia lower the premiums rising. They started off low this morning. That's why I said I looked at those first thing. Oh yeah, I let I let one of those other premiums go.
They already doubled. Boom. The direction on today. I mean, it's going to get impacted here by the oil stuff, but I do think uh after the first like two hours, we're probably going to stay pinned uh just as everybody's getting ready for the big ones. Again, all MAG 7 is down right now, too. So, keep that in mind.
Most of your big cap uh earnings names, they are literally down a ton. I do think the money is pulling into these uh these 20enters and everything else in between. So, you're getting some of that. There's one other buyout offer, too. I think it was Intertech or something like that. That was in the morning.
White House to Trump uh or from officials companies discuss steps. Yeah, that was before the bell. Qualcomm. See, I don't know. Again, Qualcomm could be benefiting from all those other ones. Let me check one more. Oh, bro, they're scammers. Oh, what did those STXs do? Cuz remember we talked to you, I was telling you that was going to be one of the bigger movers, but you actually had like three of them.
Uh, even some of the out of the money's doubled up for crying out loud. It just depends on what price they filled, but then if you were able to get mid money, you killed it on those. Yeah. No, some of you had to pay like 200 bucks, but then you would have made 500%. So they weren't like cheap earnings plays, but they hit Oh, Qualcomm earnings today.
B A KFC. The hell's this little small cap? 17. Bro, there are so many double digit moves on some of these, man. A gun and young longterm trying to take it easy. on the way to hold and so uh SanDisk. All right. Spy a VWAP Visa. That one got away. All of these have gotten away, man. So again, if it's not if it's post earnings, they're actually looking great to start off.
I think NXPI lagged and so did Bloom Energy, but some in the mid, they did actually very good. And then again, you have your Sandis going up. Oh, F cell is the sympathy to uh Bloom Energy. That makes sense, actually. That's what I was saying. I was like, bro, that one's kind of nutty. All right, Spy, VWOP, uh, Visa, even T-Mobile.
Let's see the Staples again cuz again, today was less staples reporting. Actually, Starbucks did good, but that's more discretionary. But yeah, you had a lot there. STX a thou Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Oh, I look it got confused. That was Sandis. I was like, no way it hit a thousand. No, Visa killed it.
There was some premiums on Visa in the morning, but they were they ran away. You either need a pullback cuz like I'm telling you, Visa does not usually move 10%. That's uh very unusual. So, that right there, I think, is continuing, but that's why the premiums are so jacked up. Oh, SanDisk earnings tomorrow, too.
Gez, they're all here. SanDisk and then Apple. So, again, we're out of all the Mac 7, Apple's the only one that reports tomorrow. But yeah, it's not too often you get all of them. But then also too, notice how they are all down. And then wheat's up another5. Natural gas isn't moving with any of the energy.
Again, it's been straight up even here too on oil. Uh it's one thing for crude, but like I'm saying, Brent, seek Jesus from the start. There's a Microsoftian. Hold on. Those aren't going to hit. Dips get bought, my friend. Dips get bought. So notice the spy is barely moving. That's probably because the Mag Seven effect, but there's a lot of names that are individually moving.
I don't know if you noticed this. Last stock to the lawn term was uh Oracle. So it's on the Trading Fraternity channel if you want the full breakdown. It's good to see you, bro, after two months. But yeah, stay stay up to date with it. Good morning. So, Dow Jones six in the green, 24 in the red to start off.
That's what I'm saying. And then SPY 329 in the red, 167 in the green. So, that's actually kind of ugly. 29 in the green, 71 in the red on the NASDAQ. There's actually everything down, believe it or not. I'm saying spies like not really moving. there seems to be a lot more individual news but yeah it's or individual moves but yeah you have about like 70% of the market down again on pretty much all indexes Dow is even doing pretty shitty surprisingly the NASDAQ is still green but then again you got 20% STX and a couple of other ones yeah all the memory stock NXPI is even up 23 that one's not getting as much attention I mean metaphorically but it's up 25% % Microsoft.
Yeah, they gap down too again. Oracle, uh, Palanters down too. There is the UNH healthcare rally fastly. Hi. I guess net. Where's team? Team is actually still up again. Unh doing what it did yesterday. Where's Niva? But the best chip company in the world. Intel is on the high. Well, Starbucks did good.
Boil is going up. Interesting again. Uh, which one was the other one? Wheat. So, you're kind of chilling, man. Israeli PM office Netany and Yahoo will [clears throat] not travel to Washington next week. Yeah, why is there dude? There's two. So, a headline just came out saying that he may head to Washington and then uh the literal [clears throat] Israeli prime minister office, they're saying that he will not.
Interesting. And then Quali World once again UCO. Where's BNO? So again, I think that's the one you should be watching or anything. Uh not BNO. What's the uh why am I blanking on that? What's the ETF for Brent crude? Because that is the one that that's the thing that shocked me this morning. So you're actually at a new price with all that car halted BNO.
Thank you. Thank you. No, is it? I type BNO. I guess so. I guess it's priced different as a ETF. Maybe a future might be better. But yeah, you're already breaking out. It's a fat gap up. Like I'm telling you now, you have a material price, which is kind of crazy. Yeah, Google. Remember, Google is the most crowded, but they are actually expected to do the best.
So people are much more favorable on that one than not. Uh those premiums are still kind of jacked. Mo earnings. I should I'm actually I don't know how excited I would be about MMO. Like I was telling you guys, a lot of data on smokeless has been terrible. And then uh the UK banning the Isn't it like even if you are 21 or something, you can never smoke or they'll never sell you anything.
But then I'm really worried about smokeless trends because that's what lifted a lot of these tobacco companies. I mean, I like it as uh Hood's going up. You guys said Vlad's on CNBC, but yeah, that's moving up. They're still down 10. But yeah, I am uh I'm worried about the smokeless trend because that gave a lot of growth to these tobacco names, but it has actually been on the low.
Okay, there's Amazon now. So, two of them, Google and Amazon. And those are your first Mag 7s that report today that are willing to gas. What's the date today? Oh, they have dailies. Jeez. My goodness. May 1st Friday, Bank of Interest rate cut in Canada. So, yeah, Google and Amazon. Now, Humanana, they were supposed to report.
They're actually down. I'm surprised UNH still lifted off of that. Now, booking, that's post earnings. They did bad, but they're coming up. Uh, SPY is actually hitting a little lower. You're getting, again, you're getting a weird mix of uh of what's kind of holding you up. Mostly everything is down.
The Dow is even down by 0.5 right now. SPY is down now by a quarter, which isn't too big. And like I'm telling you, this first like hour or two is where you're probably going to get the most activity. And then before you know it, we're going to play the what's behind door number Powell. EXTR. I would get Starbucks if it went low enough.
NXPI still going. Again, some of these earnings, Visa chilled out. NXPI was the one lagging in the beginning, but that one started to move. And then again, Google's actually still red. Amazon, I think, is the only one that hit uh hit green. And now Apple. Oh, I like the Amazons, but they're already up like 30%.
Unfortunately. All right. Yeah. Or we'll start small on one of them. Oh, where is Microsoftian? That's why I think you got to manage and decide. But I'm going to let those sit for a little. So that's what you got to watch out for. Not a recommendation. But yeah, that one's in the middle. It's not the most crowded.
It's not the least crowded. But yeah, that but I think the premiums are already reflecting it. Car, I haven't looked at car. Carb is still 160, man. Not bad. Not bad. Uh CRM on the high. That's odd. They're down by.7 again. A couple of software names are doing good. Yeah, bro. If you captured the car, bro, the puts, man, they that one day, the first day down, they didn't hit.
But then after that, bro, that was a banger. Good work. Just from the start, then you'll be real smart. You did you did short shares even better. Dollar for dollar. Now Apple's starting to go up again. Unh. Oh [ __ ] bro. CNC's up another 8%. Jeez. So, yeah, that one's actually really going. That could have been off of U Humanana's lack of performance.
And then again, Spy just hit a low. Oil keeps climbing. And then now there's Googly again. The Google ones are decent, too. But they all all of them all the ones that are actually able to lead right now or if any of these Mag Sevens flip, they have been juiced up. It's funny they don't do the dailies on Google, but they do it on the other ones.
Fascinating. Low ticker is still going. Rambis, there's Amazonian again. Where's Microsoftian? Microsoftian's holding up. Again, the premium still that ghetto spread has just remained. So yeah, like I said, you got to decide something to do with it. You are either going to push it for the big one or take the money and run CRM, TTD.
You got a couple of software names, even though the index isn't really moving on the ones. Oh, I guess you're right, huh? Yeah, cuz No, wait. Amazon. Or is Apple the one on Thursday? But yeah, Amazon had the dailies. They're just a [ __ ] up price. Maybe that could explain that weirdass move now that I think about it.
No. Yeah, Amazon might be the only one. I don't think that would work. Oh [ __ ] Oh [ __ ] They won't accept the order. I was going to do it, bro. I was like, "Wait a minute, dude." No, come on. It's [ __ ] Yeah, dude. You can't buy them. The only one that existed was Amazon. I was like, "No [ __ ] way." No, no, no.
They're just saying they're not accepting uh they're not accepting orders on it cuz someone just said that the uh that there's no dailies on the uh Mag 7 that reports. And I was like, "Well, wait a minute. Amazon's the one only one I see with it." So, I just try to buy one on Amazon, but it won't they won't take any orders on it.
If it doesn't matter the price, lowball, even at the at the money or at at the ask, it just won't do it. Pretty funny. I was like, man, if that's the only one, bro. If that's the only one kind of nuts rejected BNO high IMSR Adams report out Safety evaluation appears to be positive. I have no idea what that is.
Oh [ __ ] that's up uh that looks to be 670 to 720. That's a couple percent. Striker on the low. GE now on the low. So watch out if again that could remember even after yesterday's AI scare, some of these energy names went down with all of it. So yeah, it's weird. So, you would think they would get some winners.
IAEA has talked to Russia and others about taking Iran's highlyenriched uranium AP. Interesting. What if that's part of the deal? Give the uranium. But why would you give it to Russia? I don't know. I don't know how how well received that would be. Seek Jesus from the start. Amazon. Why give it to Russia?
I mean, at least Iran gives it up, but yeah, that's why I don't know. It kind of sounds like an idea, but then it's like, not really. It's like when they're like, Josh, I don't want to trade the long-term. I don't want to buy the long term. I'm going to do a daily. And I'm like, no, don't do a daily.
And they're like, okay, I'll do one with a month of time. That's safe. I'm like, no. What the I get the idea. It's better than a daily, but it's still just put the money in the long term. You know what I'm saying? So, it's like I don't know. It's like in theory it's like yeah, Ryan won't have the uranium, but like I don't know if giving it to Russia is necessarily the best idea.
Intell. Okay. Google now Microsoft. So, we're getting you got a little bit of gas break dip there to start. Even Meta now I don't know that last Meta is still free. That one held up very good actually. Surprisingly. Hey Josh, I know you said a penny, but I'm in at 31. So even then it's still, you know, that's still cheap.
Market kind of likes it. I think for But oil, dude, that telling you I'm not I am more shocked by Brent crude. This is again the seventh time I've said this now because I'm telling you out of all of our pillars now, you've had you have had one of them break. All right, Meta now. Microsoft. I think the only one not playing along is Nvidia, but remember Nvidia doesn't report today or even for another month.
But yeah, there's those Amazon's [ __ ] hit. They shouldn't have. I was I was a little hesitant, but that's why I said we got to throw a small one in. Iran's highly enriched uranium is likely at Ishvahan. UN nuclear chief says the photonics name like AOI and [ __ ] Yeah, those are going up. A poet got clapped.
They're still mad at mad. Dude, I wish it would have let me take that daily on there. I think that would have because that was a good observation. None of they won't. They allow some of these dailies, but they wouldn't allow it on uh on the earnings, but I saw some of them trade this morning. It's still one of the chains shows up via low Intel $88.
Habibi. Oh, dude. Intel's just up 4% for no damn reason. Uh there was a Samsung uh Nvidia headline last night, but I don't know how it affect Oh. Oh, it could be the uh the Han. Remember that headline there on the China the China foundry stuff? That could be it. Senate Banking to vote on Worst and it goes to the rest of the Senate.
Brent 117. Yeah, I don't like that one. Ard and AAM. Yo, ARDAC. I don't know if this was halted. $10 stock. It's already up 100%. Then Reddit Qualigen. What was that other one? All right. Spyy's working its way up. Aam. Ecom and Yong G. All right, you're back to open. Remember, we didn't It wasn't that crazy.
NASDAQ's back to that quarter that it bounced at from the morning, but NASDAQ's doing pretty solid. You have more names down again. You had about.7 down Where is it? Dow Jones seven in the green, 23 in the red. Still like I'm telling you, you have way way more that are down to start off. But the movie, yeah, you still have 160 green, 330 in the red.
And then again, NASDAQ should be about 70% as well. in the red. Yeah. NASDAQ 65 redu 35 in the green equal way. Yeah. Again, core weave even coming up. Remember they got slashed yesterday after all of the drama drama. DJ drama. Amazon Amazon Amazonian started it all. They're almost up 1% now. I mean, [ __ ] though, you have so many 20enters today.
So, they chilled out. Bloom Energy, maybe that could come back up, but they're really up. And then where's STX? They kind of move the same Iran's uranium like that. Ishvahan again. Why worry about Brent more than Crow? Hold that thought. Bradley Frile and the peaches here. Oh my god. On one of the biggest days for Powell, dog.
Today, bro. Bradley Frile. Oh my god. Bradley Frizzle has officially outlasted Jerome Powell. Oh lord. Oh my. Peach Nation, you don't get it. He was before Powell. He will come after Powell. His name is Bradley Frile. It's the Peach, son. Y'all don't understand that. Y'all really don't. I don't know if you get it.
He has outlasted the peach. He is The Peach has outlasted Frile. I am at a loss of words clearly. I don't know if you understand. That's amaz Bradley, how do you feel, bro? How do you feel? I feel like this is a postgame interview. How do you feel right now? How does it feel to outlast one of the most flakiest fed chairs?
Even though he did a very good job and we might have to evict him. How does it feel to outlast him in terms of consistency and reliability? You must be feeling awesome right now. Tell us what it feels like. Oh my dude's a legend. Y'all don't get it, bro. He beat He beat Powell. There's no other way to put it.
There's no other way to put it. Amazonian. All right. Well, there's googly wiggly and Bradley. Bradley beats Powell. I'm going to I'm going to write a children's book called Bradley Beats Powell. And it's going to be about the Peach and it's going to talk about how the Fed chair did so good and started the race good then made some mistakes, but then that little peach all the way home.
All the way home beat. You know what I'm saying? Bradley beats Powell. That's amazing. That's amazing. God bless you, Bradley Frizle. Core Wee uh dropped. It's up right now because uh people feeling a little better, but Core Weave dropped on the uh on the news yesterday with like Open AI because uh they're they work together.
Etsy, they were up seven in the morning. I don't know if they're still up. Yeah, they're up nine. But yeah, like I was saying with Brent, uh Lebanese president, Israel must implement ceasefire before talks. But uh they say, "I'm humbled and honored." Shout out to law turn. Wow. That's That's right. That's a top tier athlete right there.
He said, "I'm humbled, honored. Shout out to Lawern." Thank you. I'm sorry I'm getting so distracted. It's amazing though. It's a big day, bro. It's a big day. Earnings Powell. Bradley beats Powell. Y'all don't understand. But as far as Brent, I'm not really like worried about like supply and all that.
It's something I talked about. Uh if you guys don't, I don't know, you may have read about it. People were trying to say Iran has 60 days. That's not true. I've been telling you guys this even for since last week. Iran is running out of storage. So they even though we haven't talked really timelines on deals this week, Iran is running out of time in terms of how they could store and move their oil.
They need to move it. Yeah, exactly. Or everything's going to get damaged. They don't have the same setup that other oil producing countries have. If it doesn't flow, it gets clapped. So that's part of it. So, and then the other part is like why is oil going up and why is the stock market staying how it is?
Do you have you guys wondered that? I'm sure some of you depending on on your favorite source of propaganda, you might be wondering. You're like, "Wait a minute. Why is oil at 104? Why is Brent crude at 117? And why is the market at all-time highs?" Right? Beyond many other reasons, the one thing you got to realize is that the last couple of weeks it has been a nonviolent escalation.
Are you understanding? You you have escalated the war. Even Donald Trump last night into this morning saying no more Mr. Nice Guy. All of these these are these are nonviolent escalations. Resuming the blockade, enforcing the blockade. These are, you know, again, you're not watching boats get blown up the same way.
You're not watching things get bombed. You would think people would be happy about that. But so it doesn't mean that oil is not choked right now. It does not mean there is no logistical supply chain effect. No, there is. But it's it's operating at a different pace. It's slower. You know, violence would make that go a lot faster and cause different reactions.
If you were going to compare Russia, Ukraine, or any other geopolitical conflict, there would be more violence. So it doesn't mean that violence can't return, but you do have more vi less violence right now in the last couple of weeks. So now that leads into Brent because this nonviolent escalation, it's bringing it up, but now you are hitting a new price in this conflict, which means higher for longer.
It's already been longer. Now the price is going higher. That's just not a good sign. And I gave three pillars to look for over the last about 2 to 3 weeks. And I said that's going to pretty much determine the rest of April and lead us into what happens as we move forward. And that was earnings, the actual results, which most have been good.
And then it was going to be earnings commentary, uh, which again, you saw a little bit of that go bad the other day. And then the final one was a new material price on oil. So now Brent crude has hit a new material price. It is a new high of the cycle. So that right there is one of the pillars cracking which is letting you know now if you have one bad earnings the market with with already halfway defensive commentary that will not be good.
But if earnings are good commentary doesn't get worse from here and then WTI does not meet that material high we might be able to dodge this. But otherwise, I would be on watch because newer material highs on oil, you're, you know, again, two of three pillars crack, you're done. And then I think that could bring back some of that volatility.
And like we talked about, there's still risk on the table. Uh, even though the pricing may not reflect it. So, I hope that answers the question. It's kind of deep, but if you have been following along and watching, I mean, none of this should sound unfamiliar. And that's why it's like, you know, to wake up and to watch now a gap up in a new material, a new high of this cycle, right?
It's been two months since this war started. You're watching a new price occur on on at least one part of the oil curve. But then, like we're talking about, there is a difference between WTI and Brent. And that's why we said, if there is going to be a if there is going to be like a export ban, there there would be a big gap between those two.
There still is, but one of them getting bad says something. So, I do have my own idea. My idea, this is all because of Europe. It's both non-violent escalation, which is causing this higher for longer and causing this pressure, but then also Europe. Uh cuz they use Brent that, you know, the rest of the world, they're more relying on on Brent.
You don't produce oil, you're probably relying on Brent. So that's why I'm I do think that it's uh I do think Europe is a is a very big reason of of why you're getting Brent doing that. And Brent crude is uh Golab's favorite asset to trade. I might I should mention if you I don't know if you've looked it up but and seen any of the news but he doesn't trade WTI.
Just fun fact, right? Gala booty, how are you doing? Galabooty, day number five or six. I challenge you to a public debate. God bless you. God bless you. Genrock Energy. That's Genrock, right? Yeah. They're hitting a They're up 16. Even Genrock getting in the [ __ ] data centers. The [ __ ] They got windmills in Europe.
All right. Well, you had that little pop there. Amazon still going. Now you got Apple again. Like half of the mag seven or all of them? I think almost all of them. They're still red, but they just got that push. Niva went lower. Intel went higher. Could we get much higher? Oh, so Trump Trump banning exports would be bad for Europe.
Yeah, I said that from day one. Uh that would be it would [ __ ] up everybody but the US. uh you know and then again you even had the UAE uh leave uh OPEC the other day but yeah that's uh the analogy I gave would be uh that would be like pulling the lifeboat on a sinking ship so where Trump because again there's no such thing as you know we're on a boat and then it's sinking and you're like haha your side of the boat is sinking you know global economy is connected but banning the exports would be like I'm going on the lifeboat I'm sorry you didn't help us.
You're on your own. Good luck. It's a great lifeboat. We don't need your boat. We have a lifeboat. But then again, the other part of that analogy is like down the line, you're you're going to be in the middle of the ocean on a lifeboat. So that that which also comes with its own risk and benefits and all of that, lack of benefits really.
So yeah, that's uh but it would be terrible for anybody who didn't produce oil. If America clapped it, that would lower the global oil supply. America WTI would drop. I think if we did an export ban after, especially considering we were just at 80, I think oil would go below $80. Uh if we did that ban, but then Brent would probably go to 1501 170 or something stupid because again, everybody else would now need it and they would have to use their own supplies and then you don't have America exporting.
Can we get much higher long term mo dude? Amazon. Good for you Amazon. Good for you. Well, yeah. I mean, maybe US makes their own little OPEC with the UAE, but then again, that's that's a big move. It's not a So, I'm saying you don't pull the lifeboat for that could even both even acknowledge kind of the severity of it.
But I just think it's the time right now. You know, again, we've been this doing this for two months now. So, that's kind of the thing. It's not other conflicts. [clears throat] you were making these oil moves and a lot of things way faster. So, supply chains, all of that. So, it's just the timing now.
You're getting into two months, going higher for longer. So, you're getting all of these uh different reactions. But yeah, it's uh it could lead to changes, but also this week, just notice there hasn't been a timeline. That's the thing I keep saying about this week. You haven't had like I'm doing this Monday, we're meeting Tuesday, Wednesday.
You have till day. You haven't heard any of that today. They're saying soon. That's what drives soon. You know, it's very vague. It's more obscure in terms of timing. Light again. Those photonic plays, you're right on that. Those are going up. Boop boop boop. Space stocks. IG Vizzle in Tizzle Bradley Frizzle.
What was it? NXPI Zoom on the high. Oh, hello Zoom. Hello. Tomorrow. I mean, there's tomorrow. You could get the post earnings if something doesn't move a lot, but you have to take a lot of risk. Uh but again, if you could pick the one that's going to move, you're you're going to do great, but and you'd want [clears throat] to play it before.
So, that's yeah, it's a pure pure coin flip. I don't think anybody could really tell you that answer. There is usually opportunities after earnings. That's what a lot of people do and we've done it as well. Uh but yeah, if you want to go for one of these bigger 10 10% pops and how I actually I don't even know if any Mag 7 is pricing in more than 10%.
But another idea too is kind of like the Nvidia where in other names even like Apple where depending on today's set of earnings it could affect a lot of sympathy plays. Ward Fed nominee has enough votes to advance booking. They came back up. [clears throat] Wars approved by Senate Banking Committee advances to full Senate vote.
Amazing. Amazing. Wash. Amazing. Wheat is going up again now. Wheat was slow, dude. Wheat moved more, dog. Intel is at $90 almost. You know, Intel is the most expensive chip stock right now in the neighborhood. So, this is what I was talking about with that play uh on Nvidia. You know, people are like, well, historical volatility, we are not we're not comparing Nvidia's volatility to its own volatility.
I was comparing it and that's why we're we're comparing it to the rest of the chip index. So this was the example I gave yesterday where essentially Nvidia is the cheapest h one of the cheapest houses bottom three in the neighborhood. If you wanted exposure on an option to any chip stock, Nvidia is one of the cheapest and Intel is literally the most expensive neighbor house in the neighborhood right now.
Again, there's the ARM, the Texan, the AMD, the Micron. So, it's kind of crazy, but yeah, Intel near 90 bucks is nutty. It's a nutty. I don't even know what percentage we're up on it now. But, you know, um that's like I said, that's why I was even telling you though, with Intel being the most expensive one, that's why it's like it would kind of make sense to sell a covered call.
But otherwise, I think you either hold it, turn it to a house, which sounds wild to some of you, but I showed you anything is possible, or you could do a covered call. Did they Oh, they added more, bro. They added 130s. So, they have 130 Intels now for January 28th. You get 2,000 a pop, but that's like what?
Another That's another like 40% higher. That's 40% higher. And then that would be another like 200% on your on your entry price. So, not bad. Can we get much higher long term? Let's see. Yeah, you're up 275 on intel. Not bad. So, yeah, even that 130 I think would get you at like you'd be near 400%. if it ever got called away.
and you get much higher long term. It's quite enticing. Elon Musk can only be removed from SpaceX SpaceX board by vote of share classy controls. IPO filing shows. Well, Intel. Oh, dude. I know. Oh, if you had that one I sold, bro, those would have been dirty. Those are May 15th. I think they would have been nine bucks in the money.
That would have been disgusting. It would have been 30 every 30 bucks into 900. Here, let me throw up real quick. Hold on. And then SPY going up. Dow's still down.13. Uh, SPY's down by 005. Amazon and iPel intel is not bad. telling you know those covered calls are very tempting very but then again if it hits n it might slow at 90 but if it doesn't I mean I'm sure everybody would love to see a tripledigit intel what was the last high was 76 bucks in 2001 the Instagram I just kind of explained it right there with that last chart if you just missed it but like I'm saying if you don't understand it.
I wouldn't touch them. Uh they're still around the same price actually, which is kind of crazy all things considered. But yeah, if you're not familiar, I would uh I would opt out. Yeah, you can't sell covered calls in the other one. Uh but on the big account, if you have more than 100, you can. It's very tempting.
Like I saying, we talked again. Remember the other day, they didn't have I think the only call was like a hundred, right? Or did those 130s exist or I'm pretty sure they're new. No, I guess they did exist. Maybe if they offer 150s, the the volatility depends on volatility rising and what the other chip stocks do.
That's why I said if you don't know what you're doing on them and like ideally if they pop right away, you should probably sell them uh and try to take because it's it's all a lot of it's going to depend today on the earnings. So you got to think about it. You have some you have 25% of the S&P reporting today in four companies.
So if they do better or worse, that is going to affect how people are going to get excited about more or less as we move forward. $90 intel. Wow. You're not thinking about covered calls until 100 120. I might be with you. I want I mean again I don't think the 130 is bad for what it's offering but I mean we the only incentive to sell is volatility is extremely high but you know in this AI world everything at some point our cost basis is so low like I don't even think we really have to but it's up to you but yeah I mean I might might want to look at it when it gets higher but then again it's already up 100% a [ __ ] month so Yeah.
Is someone going to announce intel? Cuz at this intel is just getting nutty now. Again, that's moving more on big tech day than not than anything else. So, we'll see. Oh, I guess capex maybe people might be pricing in some of that. Amazon's move. It's not too Whoa, that changed a little bit. What was it?
Amazon was pricing seven as of the morning, but then it's already moved about 2% almost right now. Then Meadow is pricing six and a none of them are move are pricing in a lot. Apple is only pricing in 3%. And then Microsoft 6%. But again, a lot of them have moved 20% on the month. You know what I'm saying?
Uh so think about uh you know, think about Intel like they've they've ran up a lot coming into it. At least Microsoft's pricing in six, but they've already moved 20 again. Same. Even Nvidia has already moved up 20%. But yeah, I think Apple is the one pricing in the least amount. So, they priced in three, three and a half and they're they're down right now.
Can we get much higher? Oh, it says Apple has dailies, right? Oh, but Apple's tomorrow. So, yeah. And none of the ones that report today, they don't give you the daily Let's see. long term Kimberly. You know, I'm good. I didn't grab I only grabbed that option the other day, but we're watching um Not a recommendation.
It's only if the pricing changes a little bit. PayPal start to go green. What about the intel? Intel, dude. About to hit 90. This is disgusting. Wow. Chhattonia, how do you feel right now? Like I said, if you want to get a house, oh, but that's the thing. A house will never appreciate this fast unless you buy it with instant equity.
So that's word to the stock market. Paper, dude. Paper moves so [ __ ] again, paper. Look how fast paper moves. Paper money moves. Insanity. Oh, yeah. Core weave now. And then Intel 52- week high. SoFi good earnings and it dumped. I feel like it does that a lot. Am I tripping? I feel like that's happened before.
Ready for a nap? What time is it? 7:30. You could probably nap after your old close and then come back before Powell. You're 100% in puts. Do I think that's smart? I mean, it might be, but I just don't don't do 100% anything, you know? I like diversification. Feeling blessed. You wish you put more in the intel.
That's what my uncle said. You know that. So, you'll wish you did it younger and then you'll wish you did it more. You missed the first harvest, but tell me about the second one. trying to build while looking at the clouds. I'm looking at my hand, then I'm looking at the ground. So, yeah, man. Welcome.
That's the game. But that's why ideally keep the machine running, you know? Don't let a a big win or a big loss distract you from the mechanics and just keep it pushing, bro. You know? Yeah. And then time. I mean, at the same time though, who knows where this a lot could happen in 10 years. That's why I like the 10-year minimum.
Imagine what happened in a month, but it's like, you know, 10 years, who knows? What you thought you needed more of might be enough and then vice versa where maybe it comes down and other stuff happens in 10 years. So, at the end of the day, you will you will be good. But yeah, just keep the keep the machine pushing.
And this is uh it was that was just a great one. It was a one of one of the many greats in the long term already. But you got to keep it pushing and then yeah, diversify. You just got to diversify [ __ ] That's why that's why I don't believe in 100% anything. Hegath says, "Dense budget request reflects urgency of moment.
Prime Minister, we demand and expect action by the British government to protect Jews after stabbing attack in London." Well, we didn't start off red and the NASDAQ was green all throughout the morning. Again, you had killer earnings today. Today's not only do you have the anticipatory effect of all the events in earnings, but uh you you woke up to good earnings.
It's not like today was a bad day for that. If you miss the first harvest, what is the second one? Seasons, my brother. So, I mean, take a look at Intel. If this is the harvest, you know, you don't have the the harvest can't coincide with the same time as the as the planting, if that makes sense. Then, that was a quick one.
Usually 8 months, you know, we've held Intel for eight months. That's the that's the gap on that trade, which is nuts to think about. But, you'll find it. It'll be there. Again, even when we went into Intel, I was saying the same thing. I said we're waiting for a diamond. I didn't think Intel was going to be the diamond, but uh I'm glad with how we played it, but it's like, you know, just stay in the game and look around.
Uh you can't you can't force it, but telling you the same this isn't the first one. You know, we have we have several hundredenters uh in the long term. And the whole idea is that just, you know, if you keep playing it exactly how you're supposed to, these opportunities are going to show up. But when they do, make sure you're paying attention and make sure you actually act on it.
Is that's kind of going to be the one because when the season is there to plant, just make sure you [ __ ] plant it and don't get worried about the clouds cuz it's planting season. So yeah, man. But it's not the first one. 590 on Meta, 319 on Netflix, 270 on Intel, 200 on IRM, 190 on Spotify, and then a couple of other 100enters.
So, but you see what I'm saying? Like, especially the big ones, I mean, they have multiple of those, you know, they they come every every couple of months, every couple of years. So, you just got to do it, baby. Just got to do it. Yeah. Meta or MM. We got 3M. We got some other shares off of it, too.
Yeah, Qualcomm keeps going. Where is Microsoftian? Veco, why does that sound familiar? Coreweave is it did it recover all of yesterday? I think it was down 15 yesterday. Holy [ __ ] it did. So, yeah, coreweave recovered that yesterday gap. The scam altman gap. But yeah, software is still again I think cuz all the money is going to memory.
If you're wondering why IGV is lagging, Amazon, even Qualcomm, it sucks though. Those Qualcomms, that first [clears throat] set of Qualcomm was fire. Actually, they're up again, but they're not not a thousand% up. Trying to build while looking at the clouds. Yeah, the watch list is on the locked in or I post the free one on Instagram.
I want them, dude. I'm telling I need I'll try to post them on YouTube, but I'm telling you I mean all the times I've been reported and some of the people who interact with me on it, but like people see it on Instagram, but I've been putting out some gems on there, but the like long rants are on the locked in.
Is it is it considered a rant? I don't know. I don't know what to call it. Did Josh sell intel? I just tuned in. My apologies. That's a silly question. Hey, did I sell Intel? Do you think I didn't sell [ __ ] [ __ ] ever? Ever in my time on YouTube except to buy a farm and do donuts in a cyber truck on it?
That's half of the reason why I bought it. Okay, I'll be honest. But then but then you tell I think this [ __ ] never been touched. You then you think I woke up today I'm like, "Ah, happy Powell. Big earnings day. Warren Iran. Oh. Oh, Intel just hit 270%. Oh, it's time to [ __ ] sell it. Do you think that's silly, right?
It's like I feel like if you especially if you've just watched even for like two days, I feel like you figure I don't Yeah, the long term doesn't sell. That's why I want you all to follow it because it's probably one of the easiest things in on the internet and in the market right now. Uh you don't have to deal with massive rebalances.
You're not going to fall behind on the long term. You just have to stay up to date consistently. But you know, I have been very adamant on following the rules. Uh both to get results and both to show you an example, you know. So yeah, you don't ever have to worry about that question uh of whether or not I sold if I put it into the long term.
If I did, you know, in 2030, we'll have some discussions. But yeah, and I would have banned you for that question last year because it confuses people, right? You see what I'm saying? I would like I like clarity. I like accuracy. So, I don't want people to be confused about the easiest way to make money, which is the long term.
And it works. It's been working for several years at every size, at every market event. So, yeah. Mhm. Damn. Y'all just roasting him now. I just said silly. It made me laugh. It's like silly silly string. Only sell for the house, baby. It's almost there. you just misheard. Well, yeah. Well, understand, you know, the more you understand long-term, you'll really be able to understand what I'm doing.
Uh, and if you understand the rules with it, you know, even as we talk about other stuff. That's why we separated the even the watch list. I don't want you guys getting confused. And a lot of people have showed me it's easy to get confused even though we have executed a very slow plan that has not really been altered at all.
So I encourage you to understand it for your own benefit because this is how you're going to build wealth. Expedia to add Uber ride booking integration and app in June to launch voice booking powered by Open AI. Uber to let users book hotels through Expedia. No way. I think that'd be bad for Airbnb, but Airbnb is going up.
But yeah, that's kind of dope. You could book a hotel now through Uber. The [ __ ] And then Google Amazonian the appalonians not the movieing. You had a genuine question. Now you're scared to ask. Okay, then don't ask it. But, you know, all I did was call it silly and it's this, you know, because again, for every day I've been live on YouTube, the long term, we don't do it like that.
So, if we have a long-term video, if you want to get up with it or at the risk of being called silly, you could ask it. But that's IK. It's up to you. It's up to you. Google busting loose. Footless. Footless. All right. It's buy green now. Barely. Yeah, Google. They're both up5. Oil trading. No, it's not trading on fear.
It's trading on nonviolent escalation is what I would call it. And then Europe. Eur side of it. Brent is getting Europe is not doing good. And we've we've talked about it a little bit. If it drops below my original price, would I view that as a good buying opportunity? Yes. especially if there's no other good plays.
So, if other names that I want in the long term that I feel the same way about, if they're not if they're kind of at a premium and that does go below, I'd be I'd be down. People afraid to ask Josh questions when he doesn't ban people. Meanwhile, last year they're like, "Yo, I'm adding Vetti to the law term at $100." Yeah, Josh.
Yeah, Josh. Yeah, [ __ ] your fo. Yeah, Josh. Oh, you only bought Intel because Donald, [ __ ] you, Josh. I'm like, what the [ __ ] I guess I mean, not I mean, this would be your time to ask. Oh, man. And if you ever want to know, bro, uh if you ever want to uh find plays, just pull up that watch list on T toos and then go and add the uh year-to- date laggers.
So, because again, there's value, there's opportunity. You know, we have our list of plays we want. Uh but yeah, this is a great way to find plays that are down a decent amount right now. you could start from the bottom and finds at least some decent discounts. And then we talked about it yesterday though.
This is, you know, my my idea is like I'm playing the midterms. Uh like I'm telling you, my I feel I feel like Donald Trump because I I have time. I'm stacking my I have all the time in the world, the straight of the long term. I have all the time. I I build up a deposit. Don't worry. I go into the midterms cuz I'm just going to wait around the midterms.
If something offers me a price I can't refuse, I'm going to buy it, right? But otherwise, I'm going to keep building up until the midterms until that happens. But then come the midterms, whichever names like whether it's Nike, NVO, Kimberly, uh what else? Even Oracle, you name it. Uh as long as like by the midterms, whichever one is pretty much down, I'm going to use all that money for it.
But if not, I mean, we have we have all the time now because again in Intel's doing work. we don't have a lot of cash and that's why too I'm wait I'm waiting for a good planting you know and that's exactly how we did Intel if you guys don't recall last year that's exactly what I did uh you know I stacked up four or five deposits and then Intel came around and I threw all of the money at Intel that's exactly what we did last year so and that's because we were in the lead we had a position and yeah we we just we did our things so that's why I went Intel $92 oh my goodness Yes.
Mhm. CNC Amazon I don't Amazon's like the best one out of there or Google is expected to do the best but remember Amazon got like people hyped last last last report and then Microsoft has the most to gain the most to lose and then Meta is like kind of in the middle but somewhat promising. NVDA creeping up.
I mean, hey, you know, if Nvidia works really, really hard, maybe one day it'll be like Intel. I I can't even keep a straight face. Do you know that? I love it. That's Dude, that's like saying the war is over. I love I love saying that to people. Intel is the best chip stock in the world. I just I'm sorry.
I hate to break it to you. It's the best chip stock in the world. Okay? You know what I'm saying? Nvidia didn't wake up a loser, but one day, you know, if it eats its sweeties, it practices, may maybe it'll come close to Intel. Maybe one day. Uh Lip Boo, buy me a house. Amen. Bro, I I still, man, crazy to think I would have been the CEO, but you see, I had to pass the torch.
I don't know. I If Trump wants to be an [ __ ] he might go live before Powell, but I don't think so. Intel. Well, if you remember, I we were buying Intel well before the Donald Trump admin because I was saying with all the chips and AI hyping up, you know, my idea initially was that it was a good value play because of the foundry and the like it's a it's a it's a epic manufacturing company.
It was just managed by a bunch of idiots. That's why I called every day to become the CEO. And then there was a rumor of Trump getting into it and we had it really early and we right right when it started to get legs we we actually got in before the government. Uh and then I made that video even the video on the trading fraternity 8 months.
That video was about a week before it got confirmed. Then Trump got in, then Nvidia got in and then Soft Bank and then that was it. Uh but the whole idea was like we believed in it as a lagging chip play. So, I even said it in the video. I thought by early 26 they would have uh or 25. No, 2026. I was expecting it would just take a while for them to turn the company around, but I I believed it had a lot of intrinsic value.
Again, everybody needed chips. Everybody with AI, you know, again, they they Intel already accomplished something a long time ago. They just I'm telling you, terrible management. I'm not even like I still think half of the management is pretty shitty. again. And David Zisner took my my earnings course, so he did a lot better last quarter if you couldn't tell.
But, you know, I think they listened to some of the advice. But at the same time, it's uh you know, I a lot of it the tailwind was Trump and the Nvidia investments picking it up. But I believed in it before that just because of the intrinsic value and the stock was near book value, believe it or not.
[clears throat] I did beg. I did beg. They don't feel me, bro. Valet says it's working with CMRG to create iron for steel iron ore for steel makers. Stocks of crude oil and SPR fell in latest week to lowest in a year. Fly Q. Yeah. What happened to that [ __ ] [clears throat and cough] Excuse me. Well, well, well, Spirit.
But yeah, I do think that one's a lot different. And then Qualcomm. Yes, we called the old CEO Pat the rat. Even the everybody, dude, that board every everybody in the sea suite of Intel is terrible. That's what I'm saying. Like Liputon was a good pickup, but I'm still like I still think they I still think you could change a lot of people at Intel.
Starting an account to match the smaller one. Should we watch and buy dips on items on the long term or start growing with what you add? Well, you could follow the rebuild account, the Fidelity, because that's more newer and that would uh relate to that more. Uh but like I the one rule is try to avoid buying stuff I'm up on.
That's it. You could do whatever you want and you could choose and do what you need to, but the problem with uh like you won't enjoy it if you only buy the names that are up. And there's some, but then also two in the same degree. This is why you want to try to stay, you know, familiar with it because some plays like in this this this long term, the Schwab, I haven't bought them in like three, four, five, six years.
Uh, but then like this account, the Fidelity, this is the rebuild. So, this is again, that's why we we bought the house with it and started over. So, like these are like a this is a cleaner, more new one. And then that way you could either you could start with the names that we're still down on. Uh but then you know you could go month by month, but I ideally you could still buy names that are up, but like I've said, you know, all the data, you know, we've we have thousands of people who have gotten the long term.
It's that's the beauty of some of the data that we have with it. Uh, but it's like you don't want to uh you don't want to pay too much and the people who usually only buy like like Oracle is a great example because like you could have bought it lower than where I bought it for like a week or two but then it's like if you buy it only when it goes up 30% and then it comes down.
It's the difference between being up or you're like yo [ __ ] this longterm. Why the [ __ ] am I down and then you know so it's slow. Just remember if you're really rebuilding a long term just nothing matters in the beginning. That's what I've been telling people. Whether you buy a house or starting over, nothing [ __ ] matters because if you what matters is if you stick with it.
You know what I'm saying? That's what really really matters. So, as long as you do that, you'll be good. Yes, I said that on Intel 30 $30 ago, and I still would say the same thing now. Just cuz a stock went up after it was up 150%, I cannot with a good conscience tell people to buy that. Especially when we had it for 20 [ __ ] dollars.
Do you understand? Like, do you not I I hope one day you could respect and appreciate that on this Wall Street with the level of info I'm giving y'all. Uh I hope one day you're you're able to comprehend how rare that is. Okay? Cuz it's not like I'm telling you, I'm thinking I'm thinking for the long run.
I am not thinking for the short run. I know hype money, quick money, people love that [ __ ] It hits like drugs, but I'm thinking about what's going to keep people alive and excited about it so that they could actually get to the 10-year finish line. Uh, and there's no finish line cuz after 10 years, you're going to keep going.
But yeah, by the if when you and I have data, like I've said, we've done this with thousands of lawn terms, millions of people. It's just like you are going to get uh you are going to get to the point where if you keep top ticking, you are going to get discouraged. You guys understand that, right? So, it's like if you just keep waiting, waiting, you only buy when it's high and you're like, man, I bought the, you know, you could buy the exact same things that I bought and be down.
Uh, you know what I'm talking about? And that's not a and that gets very discouraging. Why would you keep saving? Why would you want to keep growing it? [clears throat] You know, and then you're going to start watching CNN. Then you're going to turn into a doomer. And then you're going to be like, I'll never buy a home.
And then you're going to go on Reddit and get angry all because you kept top ticking. This is what and then you're going to join Antifa. I've seen it happen. This is a true story. So, do you see what I'm saying? Uh it just that that is just the reality of the situation. So, I I do think, you know, we follow mechanical rules.
Uh that's why it's like sometimes sometimes it'll most of the time it's going to keep you safe and it's going to keep you in the game. Maybe once one of them Intel goes up, but like, you know, think about it. You're if you're going to get more bothered about telling you not to buy Intel at $70, I'm more bothered of why you didn't buy it at 20.
Do you There's a very big gap between there. So, you see what I'm saying? I don't get mad about the last $30. I'm I care about the entry. And that's what we talk about. It's one of my main rules. Everybody should know this at this point. You make your money on the buy. The better you buy, the longer you hold, the less riskier it becomes.
The better you buy something, the better. That's that's where you you make your money, not when you sell it. You make it when you buy it. And Intel is a is a great example as well. Those other names we've shown. So, that's what you got to do, baby. Uh, but yeah, that's why I'm saying just think ahead, baby.
Think ahead. And I want you guys to survive. Uh, and we're not going too quick, but and that's why I'm saying to start out, it's like I don't care about what you buy in the beginning. You shouldn't, you know, you just keep going is the thing. Cuz if you start and then stop, nothing's going to [ __ ] happen.
If you do it for 2 months, 3 months, you're like, ah, [ __ ] this. I don't I'm not swole now. I can't bench press 225 after a week in the gym, a month in the gym. It's like then we're never going to build anything. But it's like if you stick six months, 12 months, 24, 36 months, that's how we that's how we're going to really do it.
And that's where it starts to build. And that's where what you buy starts to matter a little bit more. And then you build around something and then you're able to do do all of that. So that's both the advantage and the disadvantage. what you do in the beginning is not going to matter as much. But then the disadvantage is like you're not going to see much results until you actually get the consistency down.
Pentagon says US has spent 25 billion on Iran war. Habibi. Kipler. And then yo, bro. If you don't believe me on any of this, my best advice is just [ __ ] do it then. Sorry, I got a little distracted. I had to check. I'm looking at an email. But yeah, I think those are great conversations. And if all of that did not connect with you, then [ __ ] do it.
Do whatever the [ __ ] you want. It's one of the best that's the best followup I could provide. Mhm. It is Powell day. Oh yeah. I got a little bit I got a little bit of a POW preview. Nothing too crazy. I mean, it says last one. We're just gonna I guess we honor and then dude [ __ ] Intel's going up with an oil, dude.
105 from phone. You can upgrade your membership on the phone, but it's going to charge you more money. So, you'll save 20 bucks a month for the locked in on the on the computer. Otherwise, they're scamming both of us. All right. Very well. Intel. GG's. You did it on your phone. Cancel it on your phone and then resign up on the computer and you'll [clears throat] literally save like 20 bucks a month.
Yeah, you don't have to downgrade. Just cancel it. Cancel the lockedin subscription on your phone and then resign up. Just go through the computer and then redo it on your computer and you will literally save $20 a month because when you sign up for anything like on your phone like through App Store or Google Play, they charge you the pre the premium.
Um, yeah, Locked In's 50 bucks, but then if you do it on your phone on Apple Payments, it says $70 or even on an Android. You have to wait a whole month to be able to after. Are you sure? I don't think so. That would suck. You did it through Android and it's 49. No way. Was it not on like Google Play?
You didn't pay with your phone and it's only 50. No way. All right, then. Well, [ __ ] Yeah, if it's at 50, then you're chill. But if it's anything more than I know on Apple they charge you they tax you, dude. That's Steve Jobs tax. I miss Steve. They charge you $15 more. You can still access it on your phone.
Yeah. Spotify coming up. That Ardax stock. NASDAQ's up by 0.5, dude. I'm like, it's funny. NASDAQ and like SPY, bro. Intel's like starting to to like add [ __ ] All right, I need to go to the potty. 7:54, 30 minutes till Euro close. Like I said, we might start to chill uh as as we get Oh [ __ ] dude.
The [ __ ] My keyboard just fell in my mic. Oh, dude, that's dangerous. I just spilled water on my computer. All right. Well, I need to go to the bathroom. Follow me on Instagram at the trade in Fraternity. God bless you. God bless you. All right. Oh, wait. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You want it?
Let's hear it. Tim Tim made a take me to Jackson. Oh, I haven't heard this yet. So, here is your You get a slot bop by Tim while I go to the back. It's long as [ __ ] I already like how it starts. All right, follow me on Instagram at the training fraternity. I'll be right back. See you at the podium adjusting that signature tie while [singing] the market holds its breath.
Waiting for a dove to fly. We're [singing] all just betting on the syntax of your every phrase. Lost in the hawkish mist. Caught in a [music and singing] datriven haze. I heard the whispers early clarin behind [singing] the door. Ethics codes and trading flows. [singing] Who could ask for more? The bosics still in favor while the rest of us just [music and singing] wait for a signal in the noise before it's all too late.
[singing and music] So take me to Jackson Hall and fill a hole in my heart. As these moments fade away, let's make a brand new start. My love's not transitory for you. Even as your printer cuts through the lock down in my heart. Stimulus that starts. You gave us that gift in 24 right before the polls.
A little trim to keep us slim. Or so the story [singing] goes. credibility when the politics get loud, but you're the silver lining in every fiscal cloud. Though you drown us in liquidity of my heart, a housing market rush, but you still can't break my crush. And although you and your bic are so tight, jealousy is not my thing.
I don't want to fight. So take me to Jackson Hall and fill the hole in my heart. As these moments fade away, let's make a brand new start. My love's not present for you. Even as your prayer cuts through the lock down in my heart still less than stars. This dead is crushing me. A crushing graity when the only cut you'll make is in October volatility.
And even though you won't cut, I won't se my heartstrings as your fin. See what tomorrow brings. So take me to Jackson. [singing] As these moments fade away, we love you. [singing and music] Get the [ __ ] out. My love's my transitory for you. Even as your prayer cuts through the lock [music and singing] down in my heart.
The printer slowing down now. The ink is running dry. Wow. But the power love will never truly die. [singing] Dude, that was touching this kind. I don't That's perfect for today, man. Take me to Jack Hole. It feel a hole in my heart. It's a banger, dude. That's great. I'm going to play that at my wedding.
Whenever I get married, I'm going to make sure. My girl has to know that's that's going to be the song. That's it. I I think it I think it works, bro. It did. It sounded like a wedding song. That was beautiful, bro. Wow. I'm gonna miss the guy, bro. I really am. You know, that's why I said I hope he's not dramatic about it, but that's crazy.
Intel loved it. Intel took another dollar on that. Hold on. I had to come back. I was got a little too into that. Take me to heart. Fill the hole in my heart. I mean, yeah. Well, there was a there was a Uncle Powell song right away early. It's called the Powell put. That's what I'm saying. I don't know what phrase uh I don't know what phrase we're going to get from uh from your boy like warsh like the warsh the worry warsh I don't know uh they're pumping the Uber news again yeah Netflix went up Abby Vi Abby Vi had earnings they beat the fog of Porsche.
All right. Everything's kind of taking a red now. All of the ones like Google, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, they're all coming down now. So, let's see. Is it almost 30 minutes till Euro? November. Oil has been slowly climbing all day. Uber, we're barely down on SPY. NASDAQ got half a percent again. Most of the mark, whatever ARDAC, that was already up 100%.
That [ __ ] went up another 70% actually. And fill the hole in my heart. NASDAQ 41 green, 60 in the red. I think Dow Jones still poopy. Seven green, 23 in the red. I'm paying a hole in my little the war shell. I don't know what the term is going to be, so we got to find out, but it'll be interesting.
But I do I do think he is a I do think he's a finance bro. So that's something we talked about. I mean, I'm early on it, but I do think he's going to be I think he's way more bullish than Wall Street is pricing in for now because we do have a lot of drama to deal with. But yeah, I think the finance bro, I'm surprised people aren't they they it'll turn into a tailwind eventually.
But once we get over the war in earnings and get chugging along this year, you're going to hear people talk about, you know, a different change in rate policy or at the very least you'll have the first war rate policy movement because again, it's been a while. I mean, remember last year uh every year at since like 2023, you've dealt with the markets got dictated and moved around on rate cut odds and other stuff like that.
But I say since like last October, we've kind of ignored it. And then especially as this war and everything else came in, people have just been uh focusing on everything else. So I do think that's going to come in. And I do think he is uh as far as how he's communicated, which has still been very vague.
He you definitely know he leans dovish for odd reasons. Again, oddly because he's again he's big on AI and that's that's why they kept asking him that. Am I going to sell calls on Intel? I'm probably going to wait, but you can if you want. Uh we we've been talking about that again. Just Intel options so far have been uh just they're the most expensive.
Uh literally there's not, you know, Intel options cost more pound-forpound than even like Micron. and feel the hole in my heart. Caleb Coastfire changed your name. What up, Coastfire? That was a good one. Long-term, short-term. Welcome to the war. That could work. Yeah, Bank of Canada, they kept rates the same, I think.
Star calls for emergency committee regarding stabbing incidents in London. Oh, Microsoft held again. You got to decide what you're going to do with that. And we're kind of burning some time. Yeah, that little pullback there again. some of those leaders calm down for a second. And then even in even Intel, bro, 92.87.
And now gold. I actually heard I haven't been able to confirm it, but they're saying central banks have bought the most amount of gold, but I remember two months ago they sold the most amount of gold. But yeah, I do think gold, silver, you got to get over the war. So yeah, you guys got to see. I mean, I'm going to post one on Instagram.
I'm gonna post another play and this play because again y'all I the problem when I post the strike price I was just trying to keep y'all out of danger so you didn't go buy the shitty shitty ones but yeah I mean people like okay Josh you said don't buy it if I don't know what I'm doing I don't know what I'm doing and I bought it.
I got faith in you. I'm like that's not what I said at all. So but I have an idea I'm going to share with you uh related to some of this but there will not be a a strike price included. You're going to have to take the info and and utilize it. What are the rate tax cut odds or you just rate cut odds right now are still about the same?
That's why even today, depending on what Powell says or doesn't say, that's going to kind of set the final rate cut odds. But I think we're still pricing in about two rate cuts between now and the end of the year. and feel that hole in my heart. Well, yeah. Well, that's the thing. We'll talk about it in like an hour or two, but just Powell is going to hold the ability to confirm or deny things again today.
So Powell can still make changes in his last meeting uh or again at least address some of the uh the stuff we're dealing with now. Actually, where is that divided by 83? You're at 1% right now for tomorrow. When's next week? Oh, wow. It's 12 bucks. 13 1 point. Damn. Pricing 18 for the week. So, the daily move by tomorrow, end of day tomorrow.
Spy is pricing 1% right now. That's that thing we talked about in the morning. So even then coming into Powell, you have a 1% move. Powell and tomorrow. So Powell and all these earnings are now pricing in 1%. So take that as you please and feel the hole in my heart. [ __ ] Jim Kramer. Intel is such a horse.
I have no barecase. Damn. Well, boys, it was fun. God bless America. You know, you can't get too greedy. I guess you know what I'm saying. [snorts] You can't, you know, you can't get too greedy, bro. At least you got a good amount before any of this. You can't win them all, man. You can't win them all.
It's a good run for sure. You bought your house in a way, but you got a paper saying you still owe 50,000, but you have 116 in equity. I mean, well, what do you what kind of paper? Like, do you have a loan on the property or is it a tax bill or so? I don't know. And I don't know if you're trying to sell it to get the equity or if you're going to try to pull money out, but yeah, it just kind of depends on the on what this paper is and what it if it's a real represented representing a real liability.
Uh TE I actually think this spy is better than dollar spy dollar than bonds for today. But I do think it'll that'll probably have a little bit more. And feel the hole in my heart. Let's see. Dude, thank you. Oh, I have that other one. All right. Well, it already moved. I don't know if you guys noticed that you just moved from when I priced that unfortunately, but uh yeah, you could look at that one we talked about after Powell and earnings those hit So good luck and God bless America.
The socks s I don't know if you talk about the long term but we did cover a put on SMH the other day. Damn, SMH went up again. I didn't even think about it. premiums too not to sell on Intel. Good luck, baby. Good luck. I mean, again, it still offers the furthest contract out. Get you could get your whole of investment back or a decent amount per contract and then it would still technically leave you 200% upside from where you bought it or 50% upside from where it's at now.
Yeah, I don't know about the short again. You know, Michael Bur likes that one. He's a big fan. Uh oil first little down candle finally. Pelaton see anything on Pelaton in a minute. no long-term anymore, brother. You're working a job you hate. You'd rather lose it than not know. That's cool. Well, why'd you tell me?
I mean, you don't, like I was saying, last year I would ban people for it, but you know, I don't know what's going on in your life. I really don't. So, you know, but I hope you did it following the rules cuz like even if [ __ ] goes bad, the long term is there. You know, some people yesterday were talking about losing their job and how the long term really provided a safety net.
But, you know, if you're just worried and [ __ ] I mean, I don't know why. Uh, yeah, man. [ __ ] you. You saying you're putting all your money on weeklies? I'm Get away. you got me giving you like I'm actually giving you sympathy and I'm like oh he sold his lawn term and he's like oh but then I got to put my last 20k on a meta weekly.
I mean hey man god bless you bro but you you know it's you don't need to tell me bro just do it. You know what I'm saying? If that's what you want to do [ __ ] do it but you ain't need to make a story. You don't need to tell me. You don't got to justify it if you want to fall for the traps dog. I mean hey man I they say Josh where are you going?
I'm swimming away. Shark in the water. They believe it wouldn't eat them. Where you going? Swimming away. But yeah, bro. So, you got to just do what you got to do, bro. If that's what you feel like you got to do, you do what you got to do. I think the 135s existed the other day. Mhm. Money you need is cursed.
Well, hey, can you do me a favor? You know, if I don't know how good the lawn term is, but like throw me something. [ __ ] it. If you going to give it to the market maker, too, it might work. But yeah, don't just go home. Go home, bro. Go home. Why do you mean there's a lot of money to risk on options?
[ __ ] do it. [ __ ] do it. That's what I'm talking about. You know, it's the same thing because when you guys are like, "Yo, Josh, I'm going to tell you about how I'm going to break all the rules." Like I saying, bro, I don't unfortunately or fortunately, it doesn't affect me. Uh it's, you know, you eat it, you [ __ ] it.
But you got to uh you know, that's why just do it. That's the same advice. It's the same thing. So I think there's no other, you know, you got to got to do it, man. Scare money don't make money. Mhm. You hate that saying. People don't say it anymore. Ironically enough, I feel like I haven't heard it in a in a minute.
An open fire at Russia Tupacas oil refinery has been extinguished. Fastly Noia, dude, that one's been a banger, too. Excuse me. Like I said, just don't go full doomer because you go full doomer. Like remember I was telling you I was like if you let the long-term you know you're a couple of like wrong long-term moves from joining Antifa.
It's really weird. I could make a movie about it. Be a great movie. You know what I'm saying? Like you make one move and then it leads to nihilism like you're saying and then boom boom. Next thing you know, dude, you're in a basement with a bunch of people who did the same thing with the lawn term and now you're like how do how do I make a pipe bomb?
And then you don't even know how to do that. You know about options. That's good, but you got to make sure it doesn't, you know, and then you're going to But let me put it into perspective. This report came out the other day from Bloomberg. They were saying, you know, like the even the poly market, you realize there's more accounts lost $1,000 than made $1,000 and then more uh literally more than 100k wallets lost 1,000.
The biggest wins were concentrated amongst a few users. But yeah, like you barely had anybody even hit 100k, dude. It's actually kind of nuts, you know, and that's why this gambling and don't fall for the I gota the only way out is to get, you know, they've been doing that since the like ancient days.
Even the peasant days when like there was like class cast systems and [ __ ] The whole like, oh, I I got to that's it. The whole world is just a casino now. But at the same time, it's like that this has always existed. So, you know, that's why I encourage some of you younger guys, older, it don't matter, but you know, don't let don't fall for the rebranded marketing essentially, uh, you know, where it's like it's always you're going to feel like you got to that's the only way out.
That's it. The only way out. I'm telling you, little by little, well, you that's that's how I would break out of prison. You know what I'm saying? Some of you are acting like the damn shooter at the dinner. You're going to you're going to do all of that planning. You're going to go through all of that, go buy a [ __ ] train all the way across the country and then you're like, "My line of attack is a Naruto run through 20 motherfuckers." No.
Like, why? You should chip away little by little. That same thing with the lawn. I don't know if this is a good analogy, but you get what I'm saying. So, yeah, you feel you got to do something. I'm not even talking about you no more, dude. So, I'm just saying in general, do it. I said [ __ ] do it. Stop talking about it.
That's it. You know, the real answer is what is you should keep your lawn term. But if you're going to fall for it, man, I don't think I'm going to convince you. I'm not trying. I ain't trying to convert you. I ain't trying to Nope. I think you got to and maybe this will be the experience. It could waste time for you.
But yeah, bro. It's cool. You made your You made your mind up. [ __ ] run with it. But yeah, dude. I think for the rest of you, I would definitely uh just keep chipping away. Just keep chipping away. It is even spoken about in the richest man of Babylon. They always the gambling, the card games. need a comment again.
Oh, nice. Oh, I haven't I forgot I haven't done the list of unban approvals. I don't know if I should do that for Oh, what's it called? For Powell Day. Let's see. Where are you going? I'm swimming away. Oh, yeah. That's good. No, I think we got we got a couple. Yeah, if you filled out the unban, I'll make sure I'm approving them now.
But again, you got to take the plea deal. Oh [ __ ] This bro, this guy. Nice, dude. This guy been following, man. God bless you, Mark. I hope you've been doing good, bro. Did you get intel, Mark? I don't know. I don't think I'm going You didn't take the plea deal, bro. But yeah, I hope you got intel, Mark.
But yeah, some of y'all still y'all still tripping. But hey, man, do it. [ __ ] yeah. If you have to gamble, gamble for fun, not your existence. I don't know, man. [ __ ] it. Do it. Just [ __ ] You know what I'm saying? I don't do you know, I'm trying to communicate in a way, you know, like at some point I do really believe in the in the personal journey and you know, sometimes, like I'm saying, I I hope uh you know where to find me.
At least you won't I hope you don't feel the shame at any point and you know you got to go through it. I you know I figured it out you know and I didn't figure it out making all the right moves but you know I I I'm grateful for any any opportunities I've had and I'm grateful for the people that tried to help me not make the same mistakes but you know it's like [ __ ] bro you got to learn it.
You got to learn it. Alphabet investors push for safeguards on government use of tech and cloud letter shows kumbaya longterm. I need it now. I need it Mumbai. My longterm may my long [singing] sts go up my friend stunks go [singing] dips get bought my friend dips get bought by my [singing] [screaming]
Mhm. Amen. IAP, what's up, baby? How high do you think the SPY will be in 20 years? I really don't know. I don't uh I don't think about it. I mean, I I don't invest in the ETFs like that. So, I think about just the individual companies and as long as they keep making money, it'll be good. It's kind of how I viewed my height.
You know what I'm saying? I used to be like, how tall will I be in five years? How tall will I be when I'm 18? When I'm 20? And then I realize I ain't never [ __ ] growing. And then I say, I got to grow the other stuff. So, then I focused on the individual. But yeah, other than that though, I don't really I don't really have spy predictions.
USO. Oh no. Galab, President Trump seeks Iran's surrender via economic pressure. Dude, we haven't heard Galabooti in so long. That's through Fars TV, though. He didn't tweet it. He knows he got the ALGO. He know the ALGO is following his Twitter. He doesn't want to to lose the potency by long-term. Do you mean trading just on earnings consistently?
Or maybe it means constant educated gambling decisions? Are you [ __ ] with me? Cuz I don't know. I don't know how to respond to that one cuz I could definitely answer it, but then I'm also like I don't So, the long term is uh I'm just going to answer it. The long term is no options at all. It's stocks that we hold for 10 years minimum.
Uh 10 years minimum, high quality assets. So, yeah, that's why I've built three of them for just for YouTube, just for everybody watching. Man, I wanted to encourage people to do this a long time ago. So, uh, yeah, we just, you could deposit 200 bucks a month, 300, 3,000. It don't matter. Any amount, and then you just deposit it.
The [ __ ] dude. My shit's not loading. But yeah, so we've done it for a while, actually. And then you you only sell to buy a house or put it into a more valuable physical asset or a business, something of better value. But yeah, this one's a big account. That one's like 3,000 a month. So, that one's a lot bigger.
That's again to show the scale. You could do it whether you have a lot of money. So, if you worked at McDonald's, this is this account. If you worked at McDonald's and then you watch this weird guy on YouTube and you're like, "Yo, he's right. I'm going to save $300 a month and then deposit it." This is a McDonald's account.
This is what you would have. And then, are you ready for this? We have a liberal account, too. So, my sister, uh, she has a nose ring. She's uh she's a liberal. Um you know what I'm saying? She really she really wish Camela won the election. Uh what else with my sister? She wanted to move to Palestine at one point.
That's this all true story. She even wanted to sell out during Liberation Day and she's never raised her deposit $200 a month. Uh you know, and yeah, this is this is what her account would look like. And she started at the previous all-time high. She started because of FOMO. She quit because it went down and then we eventually got her got her back up on it.
But yeah, that's so this is it. This is all it is. But nothing to do with options. Actually, I'm just a gambler on the side because I call all options gambling. So yeah, if you really want to make the market work for you, I'd get a long-term. And you might even learn how it leads into options. But oh, the lawn term super duper easy, bro.
just hold for 10 years minimum. There's no excuse to build a long term of what regardless of what you make. You think so? I would agree. I don't know if everybody would agree, but that's a great comment. I think I I could agree with that. Mhm. Liberal neglect. Yeah. those. So, we got every account whether you have a lot of money, a little amount of money, whether you start at the best time, the worst time, early, late, all these accounts, bro.
Again, we got more this far thing. Gallaboth the pressuring the economy 10-year guilt on the highs for O8. Yep. That's what we were saying yesterday, dude. Europe, you got the guilts. Now, we have Brent. It's all there. Colt sister is at $20,000. And then again, so like imagine all the drama she wanted to sell last year.
Last year in April at the low of liberation day, she said it was her own idea, but I think she was watching the news and talking to people, but she wanted to sell out at the low of liberation day. And that was uh her account was at $11,000 if she did that. So today it's at $20,000. So, I'm glad she didn't.
But yeah, EU to raise funding target for bonds January to June by 10 billion. That's [ __ ] dumb. So now maybe you got the guilts going up and all this other [ __ ] and now EU's raising bond auctions. Uhoh. Hot dog oil 105, bro. 105. Look at this spy, dude. You know somebody's losing their [ __ ] right now.
Not like someone like you got bro oil up 6% new high then the SPY is a tenth of a percent with the NASDAQ up 045 Five. Nobody has ever regretted a true long term. Mhm. She has She does have a nose ring. I think that's like very I think that's like really really applicable for the story. Don't you think?
I think I think it highlights even it doesn't matter what you know it's like I think you could really see her viewpoint on the world cuz it's a recent nose ring. I don't think it's like you know she wasn't born with one. You know what I'm saying? She definitely didn't have one when we were growing up, but yeah, no blue.
I think she did purple streaks in her hair at one point, but I don't know if she did full blue. But yeah, so it should, you know, I'm just painting the picture, but it's a true story. All is a true story. I do need some McDonald's. I feel, bro. I like Schwab or Fidelity or E Trade. uh make make I like Fidelity cuz it's boring and then if you're not buying random ETFs, Fidelity is good.
And then Schwabo is kind of the best. Well, like I'm saying, I think the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about is that a big part of oil right now is not it's this nonviolent escalation, but it's like Europe is cracking right now. like actually getting messed up again from their bonds to their they're the importer.
So even think about the demand for other oil, but it's like there's the spread is still wide, but and it's it's not stopping crude from going up, but I do think that and then you have earnings kind of holding back. Earnings is acting like the levy unless earnings is bad. So yeah, a AOI star. I'm surprised the chips, but not really.
You have so many up today. Push-ups for peace. Oh yeah, dude. We're six minutes off Euro, man. And like I said, we might two hours now. We might kind of get a little pinned, believe it or not. Abivasious going up. So, Chattonia, you've been here for 2 and 1/2 hours. Uh, that was enough for Intel to go up 10%.
So, you know, if Intel could push up, you could push up. So, stand up, move your body around. You know, the other long-term investment is being alive. You know what I'm saying? And if you do want to sit down all day, you got to make sure you're in the physical fitness for it. So, if you want to preserve that, I would uh move around.
Chest to the sun. Flex the core. Tuck the hips in. Mhm. It's all you got to do. It's all you got to do. Oh, man. Stand up. Bro, my legs are still sore. You know that? I kind of like it though. I might do another Monday leg day. I feel like it gave me more energy. I'm not I was dead yesterday, but you know, I still think uh I think there's opportunity with it, bro.
I could see I could see the appeal. I see where you guys are coming from. But yeah, move around, Doc. Move around. Intel. Yeah, bro. Even after Jim Kramer, this is not This is weird. This is very weird. Don't you think he's weird? I think he's weird. Mhm. All right, man. We'll move around. Move around.
I'll get you a jam. I need my my strike song now. I know I know I know I don't chase every ticker. I just wet my dirt. Let them all chase glitter. I just want my bird premium in my pocket. Got to play not a prayer. If the charts start dropping, I'm already there. I make the contracts free. Free free free.
I make the contracts free. Free free. Hey, take my profit. Let it be. risk and reward in harmony. I'd rather make it free than lose the blessing I receive. Free contract that's my therapy. Lock the game and let it breathe. I make [singing] the contract free. Small size on the entry. Big dream in my mind.
Trim twice. When it doubles, then I'm feeling fine. If it runs, I'm smiling. If it fades, I'm cool cuz I'm playing with the house now. That's my golden rule. I make the contracts free, free, free. Oh yeah. Take my profit, let it be, be risk and reward in harmony. I rather make it free. They lose the blessing I receive.
Free contracts, that's my therapy. Oh, lock the game then let it free. I make the contracts free. on track free. I used to be for one more move. Now I approve. Galabof enemy stoking internal division to weaken. Trump I will not lift the naval blockade without a deal that includes the nuclear program.
Channel 12 News Israel. Anyone else? Yo, Rushi, man. I mean this with all the love in my heart, dude. You know that cuz I It's a good day, bro. How can we not be happy with Intel and we got good moves, but like in all like love, dude. Just shut the [ __ ] up and do it, dude. Okay? You know what I'm saying?
Just stop trying to [ __ ] have a a chat about it. Stop trying to talk to people about it. Just I don't want to ban you, man. Just You know what I'm saying, bro? Just [ __ ] shut the [ __ ] up and move on and that's it. And just do it. And just do it. That's it. Otherwise, I'm not You know what I'm saying?
Like you can't. You're hesit. It's like trying to go to a bank robbery and you trying to Anybody else try to rob a bank right now? Anybody else want to risk their life on Oh, man. Just you got to That's the best advice I could give you right now. He wants to know if other people are gam. I know Josh said gambling is bad.
Is anybody else? No, just do it, dude. Just do it. Stop talking about it. That's it. Don't bring anybody into your bad decisions. That's the sin. You know what I'm saying? Go sin quietly. Go ahead. I don't know if that's good advice either, but at this don't don't bring anybody down with you, man. Just go just do your thing, bro.
Just do your thing. Just do your thing. I mean that in love, man. Peace and love and harmony. I like harmony. So, yeah. But it's Powell Day, too. So, a lot's going to happen. Mhm. All you got to do, bro. That's it. Actually, do you have a house by chance? Cuz if you have a house, I'll loan you money if you want to put up the title.
Do you know that? That's why like at one point I think that's going to be my new shift instead of trying to talk people out of it and like help them. I'm just going to see if you guys have houses. I'll I will encourage this then. I don't really encourage it, but you know, if you need a loan and you're going to put up the crib, I'm down.
Maybe you could back it with your long-term. Maybe I'll just take the shares. That's what you could do. But yeah, you don't need to talk about it. No, just do it though. Just do it. How much can I take out on a loan? Do you have a house? I don't Listen, man. I don't think you should do this deal. You guys, you stop it, though.
Okay, fine. That's why I said I don't want to take advantage of you. I don't want to take advantage of your desperation. I don't want to. Okay, but if you're going to just give it away to anybody just because you got a [ __ ] idea, I mean, [ __ ] I would love another crib at a good deal. But no, I wouldn't do that, man.
I wouldn't I wouldn't do it. I wouldn't. That's Come on, man. The budget request. I haven't really I think it's all too much money. I said that last year. He spent a lot on submarines and [ __ ] and we spent 25 billion. Press TV. God's grace we will humiliate the enroll the enemy general SMI was not brilliant not only a brilliant commander he recorded back in 2019 he is the martyed commander now press TV again the latest Trump comment from or not even it's just like channel 12 adding to what he said in the morning Josh collecting houses as collateral is a recession indicator Maybe.
But like you get the idea, right? Like cuz that this is something I have seen over the years is that you know, especially with like some people, man, I've seen good stories, I've seen bad stories, but like I've even seen I told you even with like the whole 25K, you have no idea how many Chads that it's sad that have built up a log term.
They did the 300 a month. they get above 25K after a couple of years and then they like get some crazy trading idea one day and then they lose it all or I've again I mean there's even Chads they've ran it up very well and then at the you know height of doing good they kept playing this this game uh without you know really you know planning for the future or sustainability and I've seen Chads take out loans so like I'm saying man it's uh it sucks because you know you'll I'll have people like they'll come to me you know what I'm going to say and you know who we're trying to help.
But then they'll go out and they'll they'll go do some actions like these and like they'll literally just give away their money to random people. They will literally just give away good things. Uh and then again it leaves them in a bad position. So like I'm saying, bro, if you're going to make a dumbass decision, you might as well just give me the house then.
Uh you know, that's that's kind of my my new logic with it. But in reality, I don't want you I think you it was I like to see harmony. I like to see people do good. Uh, you know what I'm saying? And I don't think uh it's better to avoid all of this, especially when you can. I don't know. Do you want me to Should I just give you guys felo right now?
Cuz we have Powell. You know, we have Powell today, so we won't have a Felo. I could give you a little Felo, actually. Would you guys like a little Felo? I have I I could give I could make it, you know, make it real quick. I I don't know if it's too early. I ran war out of Quagmire. Democratic lawmakers criticism hands a propaganda victory to Iran, says Hegsth.
But yeah, man, stop giving what you worked for to random people, you know? I I hope you give it to yourself above all and your family. And then even then, like you're even going outside of your comm the community trying to help you. I'd rather let me put it this way. you got a crib? Get I won't even take it.
Let's give it to a Chad who actually wants a house and actually save then and maybe we could organize that. But I think you'd be better off doing that. But even then, all of these are terrible ideas. You what you really should do is stick to the plan and believe me little by little, baby. Mhm. I'll give you I I'll give you a mini fileo.
Just a real quick one, man. I won't even clap. You know what I'm saying? No clap, no music. I I'll just tell you. I'll And then I'll play one. It has to do with money. I'm going to play something for you. But let me see. I got to get it. Now I wait for one more move. All right, man. This it's a oneliner.
I'm gonna just give you one line and it has to do with kind of with what we're talking about. Have you ever heard a phrase in the Bible? It says the devil comes to steal, kill, and destroy. Have you ever heard that? He comes to steal, kill, and destroy. Right? I think it's you might have heard that in any other context, too.
So, are you ready for this? If you catch him at the steel, he can't kill and destroy. Oh, Chad. Chad, y'all don't Do you get it? That's it. That's all. That's what you got to realize. That's true. Go read it. Go read the order of operations. He comes to steal, kill, and destroy. My brother, if you stop him at the steel, he cannot kill and destroy you.
You know that, right? That's what I was saying. You got to learn to to get good at this. You got to learn to get good at. If you could notice the steel, my brother, notice where you're get you're getting robbed. Cuz that's it. If you stop him as a thief, he can't become he can't murder. He can't murder your dreams.
The enemy can't take you out. Can't destroy anything. division. You got to be a you stop the steel. That's it. That's there. There's nothing else. And that's what I think a lot of like cuz think about it. What gets killed and destroyed, bro? It don't just like something got stolen. That that mentality, the logic, the way you're viewing it, don't let it just stop the steel, bro.
If you can stop him at the steel, you prevent the kill and destroy. You start learning that and you start being aware of that and being able to see like, "Oh, I know what's going on here. I see what's going on. You trying to steal my lawn term. You trying to steal my future. You trying to take one thing and change it and make it look like another.
No, you stop the steel, bro. There's no kill and destroy." Very simple. So, that's your file. And I'll give you a Jim Ran clip because it has to do with money. So, take a listen. So profits are better than wages. Wages make you a living. Profits make you a fortune. Now the third 10 cents is vitally important.
I call it passive capital. Capital you let somebody else use. A financial institution, stocks and bonds, mutual funds, whatever. Let someone else use it. You furnish the money. They use it to make a profit, but they pay you for the use of it called interest. And here's one of the things that'll make you financially independent fairly quickly.
And that's called compound interest. And this is how you get it. Letting someone else use a portion of your money. Your substance. You didn't say something. Listen. They show the profit. They pay you interest. And this passive capital, I'm telling you, over a sustained period of time, if you'll develop this little 10, 10, 10, and 70, especially starting at age 15, I'm telling you, by the time you're 35, you will be financially independent.
You'll have the ability to live from the income of your own resources. You hear this? And then one more point on passive capital. There's a Bible philosophy. Hold on before we talk Bible. Do you get it? This is what, bro? The OG. Everybody knows this. It's not. Stop looking at the damn next year. All this little by little, you stack, you compound, my friend.
Oh, big red. All right. Well, good time to pause. Uh, kind of. It's not too much, but low ticker just tweaked. The oil's already up. I don't see anything yet. Again, latest one is the naval blockade. And that's it. Let's check the truth now. I wait for one more move. Dude, 17 to 35. That's what he said.
But again, I know it sounds ridiculous to some people, but you really got to, bro. Little by little, you are It's a That's just Willy Wonka and the chocolate factory timing. Go. Let's Come on. Tell them, Jim. And then one more point on passive capital. There's a Bible philosophy. I'm an amateur on the Bible, but there's a Bible philosophy that teaches the borrower is servant to the lender.
And if you want to be in a powerful position as you grow older, finally when you become mature, maybe have your own business, things have worked out for you for the future, the position you always want to be in is the power position. And that's called the lender. The lender is the power position. So if kids learn early enough and then you ask them what they'd like to be when they grow up, I'm telling you, once they understand, they'll say, "Well, one of the things I want to be is one of those lenders.
That's the power position, not the spender." No, you'll be pied the rest of your life if you just become a spender. You got to become a lender. And I think this is one formulas to follow. 10 cents out of every dollar. Let someone else use it. Be the lender. Power position. then try to show a profit.
Can't we teach our children how to take a dollar, search the neighborhood, find a broken wagon, pay a dollar for it, bring it home, you know, clean it up, sand it until it's clean, paint it comments, but I don't still take it back to the neighborhood, sell it for $5. No headline yet. Anybody can do that.
Now, does the child deserve $4 profit? And the answer is yes. Society now has amended. Oh, Israel raids the town of southern Lebanon. We shouldn't react to an attack like that. And then Trump rejects Iran's offer. Blockade stays. That's hitting now wires that's flashing. But still, I think it's a mix of both.
Once again, you're getting another little attack thing, which I don't think should move you in the same way. And oil's already up. But then, yeah, I mean, you've got you got that Trump thing three times. Sentcom is prepared for short wave of strikes on Iran. Okay. Well, we're attacking again then. So again, I'd say now you're leaning towards attacks, not the blockade stuff.
That's definitely it. So they haven't done it yet, but them US signaling attacking. I mean, Iran did the other days, but there you go. Alrighty. Yeah, it's not again. And there was three things just happened. This usually hap remember the last time we saw some [ __ ] volatility. You had a very similar thing where we had three pieces of news kind of at the same time.
So you had this southern Lebanon thing and then you have the confirmation of the earlier news of rejecting this whole blockade thing, right? Or rejecting the offer. And then now you have US Zentcom, Central Command, they are saying they're prepared for a short wave of strikes on Iran. So remember, we don't have a ceasefire.
Everything so far has been nonviolent like we talked about today. So if it starts getting violent again, that's your that's your other part of all of this. So I wait for one more move. Yeah, Lebanon, Sentcom, and then blockade. I think Sentcom is the more important. Rejecting the offer, the blockade, that's number two.
And then the last one would be Lebanon in terms of order of importance. So yeah, that's all hitting right now. I mean, you just took one point on the spy. It's like what, a 10th, 15th of a percent. NASDAQ's still green. But then oil, dude, is disgusting. That's disgusting. Not it's Brent, dude. Brent.
Trump would consider military action if Iran does not act. So again, it's all Axios. I don't know if this is the Barack guy or Mr. Ravid. If it hits, I think the sky hook. I mean, they're not moving. Well, right now we were not price I don't know if you saw me do that. We were only pricing in 1% for today and tomorrow and that's including 25% of the S&P oil at [ __ ] 106 and then uh what's the other event?
Powell. So, I mean premiums weren't even that crazy. The blockade is somewhat more effective than bombing. They're choking choking like a stuffed pig and it's going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon. Trump told Axios. Geez, they're choking like a stuffed pig. I know. It's disgusting.
They don't even eat pig. I said, why would you do that? Make a deal. No nuclear. If it dips, I still get by. that Iran forces have shown restraint to give diplomacy a chance with opportunity to end war, but stressed Iran's armed forces believe patience has limits and that a punishing response is necessary if blockade continues.
Oh [ __ ] is Persing Square IPOing today? That's the other one. Yeah, oil is still straight up. Already paid my fee. A can do all of them at the same time, man. oil surges. That's what I'm saying. It's that's you you guys are kind of used to it when anytime we've got this, it's never just one headline.
And then CF is ripping right now. Yeah, Nvidia is just chill. Well, again, chips are up today. I They You would have thought they would have done better, but again, they're also waiting for the other stuff. And any of the post earnings are kind of killing it still. The fog of fog of war. Honestly, it didn't change the premiums too much.
Yeah, that a can stock is crazy. More from the interview will be published soon from Axios. That was probably again that was probably the biggest one. The Sentcom headline, Mr. Ravid exclusive. Why matters? No more Mr. Nice Guy claimed Iran wants to make a deal. Added that the storage and pipelines are getting close to exploding because they can't export.
Some analysts doubt that Iran is in danger on that front. senior uh official of Iran quoted says that the blockade will soon be met with practical and unprecedented action. Yeah. And that the Iranians showed restraint. So yeah, that's all you're going to get another one. No spy. I mean, it could move depending on here, but I do think the bigger spy move after Powell, depending on what he says, and then just after the earnings, that's going to be the real big driver.
Like, I'm telling you, literally 25% of the S&P market cap, a quarter of the whole entire stock market's value will be at risk by by after the bell. here we are again. Yeah, again this I think the more nonviolent but escalation but like I'm telling you it just especially with how lacking the war has been compared to the beginning like you know in the beginning it made more sense with oil going up how it did but I really think the biggest I think this is weakness in Europe and I think that's what's rocketing up Brent and then I think it's tagging along with uh with crude and then then you throw in the escalation and then the war stuff, but I do think one big part is the the major weakness in Europe right now.
All right. Well, it's coming back up to VWAP. Unfortunately, you're still doing the earnings power pin. Barack has a very close access to Trump and Israel as well. I know people were hating on him at first when he did the uh he offered like one of those like peace talk things and people were like it's not fake.
He was the first guy who launched the Islamabad stuff but then ended up being true like the first first time we heard about Islamabad. Well yeah he is uh lowkey he's kind of became the number one reporter on all this stuff. Don't forget buy the invasion. Mhm. And that's and ever since then, ever since the ships got there and all of that and then the other peace stuff, we uh we've chilled.
I mean, we just it's turned into nonviolent escalation. But yeah, we'll see if we turn that on again. Let's see if I've chilled out. Everything's low-key pinned, dude. Now, after those first moves, some stuff rocketed up in the morning, but you are getting uh more there. T my property. Powell should end on a good note, but like even for like legacy sake, he might want to be a little hawkish, but it just all depends.
So, we're go I I have a really quick preview today. Remember, today's not a summary of economic projections. So, I only have like two things to show you, but there is an elephant in the room uh beyond Europe. There's two elephants. So, but yeah, there's an elephant with Powell that we got to talk about that I don't think people are acknowledging as much, but it does uh I do think it will uh it will kind of uh change some things.
BST, what's is BST? Is that a stock or is that like a Korean boy band? But I'm not I don't I don't know. Oh, Black Rockck Science and Technology. I haven't looked into it. I'm I'm assuming it's a ETF. I don't know what they hold. Yeah, Danny answered that for you. spot prices are higher than future dated means the price of oil right now or any commodity or even earnings could do it sometimes when the price of the thing up front cost more than down the line because usually if you're going to pay for something down the line it should have a higher future price should increase rather than increase and go down right you should start low and then every month every year prices should go up with uncertainty but if you have more uncertainty on the on the beginning and then it goes down.
That's backwardation. The price curve is backwards. It's like the yield curve inverting essentially. But now with future prices on commodities and then sometimes other this could apply you could apply this to almost anything. Anything with a future price PB. Hey yo, PB down 15. Panamo. Panamco. I don't know what this is.
Well, down5. It hasn't triggered yet, but it can. F cell still. [clears throat] That was the Bloom Energy one. I don't know when they report PB is a regional bank. Thank you for that. I'll make that contracts free. All right, dude. Right back to VWAP. Right below it. Oh, they're on an earnings call.
I was going to say that's kind of random. Barack Ravid. I don't think you know what we're not talking about. Hold on. Hold on. Let me Let me get it up real quick. Do you know what we're not talking about enough today? Th this is what we are not talking about enough because like we're bringing you know we brought up such intellectual conversations.
No, not Barack Obama, but that that could be maybe I do. Wow. You I actually talked about Barack Obama with my mom the other day, but that's I don't this is a funny conversation. But no, just with all this, you know, we're talking oil, we're talking Iran, Brent crude, Europe, and I think it's cuz like this is volatility, too, might I add, cuz I think we topticked the ridiculousness of Donald Trump.
I'm telling you, bro, the whole Wait, Google users can create digital AI wardrobe from Google photos are who would that affect Shutter Stock? Are they even public still? Rent the runway maybe. I don't even know. But yeah, Google AI digital wardrobe. But like, you know what I'm saying? Like I think the top of like Donald Trump volatility, not like in the market, but like what he posts, we were like it was when he's praise Allah.
Like that was crazy, right? But like I don't think we've talked about this enough today that this started the oil move. I think the oil futures understood it more. This was his post today, you guys. Are you understanding? Like, that's what I'm saying. I feel bad because I've seen I'm not reacting the same way.
Yeah, he posted praise Allah on Easter and we're going to blow you to hell. But like, yo, this is kind of ridiculous. You know what I'm saying, bro? No more Mr. Nice guy. American flag emoji. AI animations of some m mountain region blowing up with Donald Trump dressed as a men in black character holding a M16.
Like what? At 4 in the morning. At 4 in the morning. Do you get what I'm saying, bro? Like that's what I say. That that got oiled up by three bucks at least. Three, four bucks at least. So yeah, bro. I don't know how I uh I don't know how I feel about that one, but I feel like we haven't talked about that enough today.
Like this is part of today. Like it really is like this is what cuz that's why like some of these reiterations of the uh you know the no deal nuclear this this is how he introduced it. So I don't know something about this is kind of great. I might make it my profile picture, but still this is kind of funny.
But like yeah, I I feel like without the praise Allah, I would have been like, "What the fuck?" But yeah, that dude, like I'm saying, right when that came out, dude, this was the oil move on that on that picture. No more Mr. Nice Guy. Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a nuclear deal.
They better get smart soon. President DJ D. So yeah, that is real. Yeah, that's that's what I'm saying. That's that is real. Like, you know what I'm saying? That is really That's it, bro. Like, I don't know. I would have liked Biden a little more if he did [ __ ] like that, I guess, because I'm imagine that with Biden now.
Imagine that's how they did like with a Ukrainian flags and then it's Joe Biden holding a [ __ ] uh what is a Javelin missile. I'd be like, "All right, all right, Biden. All right." That would be insane. You can't even imagine it. Yeah. You're like, "Wait, I can't even fathom this level." But like I'm saying, that's pretty ridiculous.
The no more Mr. Nice guy with him holding a M16. I guess you had to bite in with the laser eyes, but like that wasn't even that didn't go that's like put a weapon in his hand like that that didn't even go hard. But then again, I don't know, man. I don't know. I know. Where's Mush Daba? That's what they said.
I forgot they're scared of voodoo. That was another There's been so many funny headlines. Like there it sucks. I feel bad that I laugh at all of them, but it's like, you know, this has been like you are getting the ridicul this is how you know propaganda gets ridiculous, but like all of it is like kind of funny.
I I totally forgot the Iranians, they said, "We don't even want to speak on him because of the voodoo, the esoteric powers. Cisco [snorts] like it's it's All ridiculous. All of it. Cuz like, you know, you got to like put yourself like put yourself in the shoes of the adversary. You know what I'm saying?
So now imagine you are mushdubba, right? Like you wake up in the morning, you push your boyfriend aside, and then you're like, "Wait a minute, dude." And you get on your phone, right? And then you're like, "What the fuck?" And Bush Dubba has to be like, "Yo, what?" He's like, "What do you is this no more Mr.
Nice Guy? What are you talking? What this guy doing to me? Huh? What do you mean no more Mr. Nice Guy?" Or then like pray. Imagine being Mushdubba, bro. Like, right, dude. You finish your breakfast, your boyfriend makes you breakfast, and then you're at the breakfast table, and then you're just like, "Yo, did you just type praise Allah?" You know what I'm saying?
This is very offensive. All of this, all of that's why I'm saying like, I could only This is psychological warfare. I don't think you guys are understanding. Do you know what I'm saying? Like, this is a very, this is all very psychological when it's all said and done. But yeah, bro. It's kind of funny.
Is it the babe? Babe, what does this mean? Huh? But that's the thing. Like, you could totally understand what it means. Donald Trump is not [ __ ] King Charles over here speaking in eloquent [ __ ] saliloquis. You know what I'm saying? Donald Trump makes if you if you couldn't even read the [ __ ] message and you just saw the picture the one this morning you're like I think I know what he's trying to say.
I don't maybe there's a translation gap even though I study at Oxford but still this is very Is that what he is he's trying to say what I think he is? It's a very clear message like dude I will blow you to hell. Praise Allah. I not much room to misinterpret that. I think that is this guy. He No way.
Maybe he meant something else. But [ __ ] this guy. American. Crazy man. Crazy. Yeah, dude. You could translate that in every language. Donald Trump with a M16 with the mountains on fire. 80p in my property. Aman says, "We have a large base of followers in capital markets can grow to the size of Blackstone or mega PE.
We are above a stupidly cheap market bottom. That's crazy, dude. This guy Aman is a billionaire and he's talking about his followers. That doesn't that's crazy. Acumen, just get a good investment. Can I offer you some intel at $20? The [ __ ] bro? I got [ __ ] shadowbanned for that [ __ ] You know that?
You guys reported me. Woo. Praise God. It's Middle Easter. Of course, it's not a difference. It's a Persian. Get it straight, buddy. Get it straight. Don't want to play around, man. about PST. I dude I remember act back in the day Aman that before it's funny that's the irony is that like before before like social media and he got on social media Aman used to have motion like I remember the uh what was it called the the [ __ ] Howard Hughes buyout and like other [ __ ] I think he got washed on Herbal Life but like and then he was [ __ ] uh was a was it Aman on [ __ ] what's it called on the Gilead [ __ ] I think he killed Gilead on one and then what was it?
Oh, I put it I had a uncle put it in a song. The one line. Uh what was it? Oh, the one failed biotech. How am I blanking on this? But yeah, Aman used to have like pure motion. Like he used to just make good plays, but then like that's that's he just I don't know what happened, bro. Uh I really don't know what happened.
Yeah. No Val I it's in that song. He says they act real but they oh what is it fill in the blank. It's in it's an uncle lyric. They act real. Like acting real is a play on words but they really How am I blanking on this man? If you're a real uncle listener, you got some alpha in there. Filidor. They acidor.
That's the one he got washed on. But yeah, no, Filidor. Go look it up. Bill Aman in Filidor. Maybe I shouldn't bring this up on IPO day. Sorry, Bill. But you know, I didn't get my $7,000 check, but uh thank you. Thank you. I'll be here all evening. Jerome Powell. And we'll even get our uh earnings. BB and Trump call speaking together soon.
One time he clapped Netflix. I know. We bought Netflix. I think we bought Netflix that day or right before and then he sold out and then people were like, "Haha, Josh, I told you nobody uses Netflix and then four years later you're like, I hate this Zionist." It's actually odd how it played out. He is, but that's what I'm saying.
Aman back in the day had way more emotion though. I think he's just been on Twitter too much because that's a I think that's weird talking about a large base of followers like your IPO, dude. Like you should tell us and if you're supposed to be a fund like who cares about the followers, who cares about Yeah.
Like obviously supply and demand, but if you have a asset people want and you're making good acquisitions, people will who cares how many followers you have? They're going to want the they're going to want the asset. That's why that's why I got on that little tangent. his complete track record. Yeah.
But no, like the last 10 years of Aman have not been uh they have not been hot unfortunate. Let's I say I I respected the guy. That's why you know even growing up when I was younger in the markets like I my first most of the time I've seen Acan he was making moves. He did good on COVID, but he just copied my co place just with a billion dollars with 70 million.
So yeah, 2016 to 2026 approximate NAV return 15.5 over the last 10 years. So slightly above the 12 to 14% over the same period. So you had to pay to [ __ ] be the spy. You paid way more. Total return on 10 years 175%. Yeah, his biggest play was 27 million in the 26 bill on COVID. So, all of our COVID plays, if we put $27 million down, but yeah.
Yeah, Valiant Herbal Life dragged it down. And then, isn't Perching Square I think their biggest holding is Uber? But yeah, I do think I mean there's a reason he's who he is like in the in the beginning. I think he did get propagated. I'm telling you, bro, he used to motion, bro. Motion. Same thing happened to him.
That happened to all the boomers. Social media turned good brains into mush. It really, dude, I don't I think I want to study it. You know that we should get it. Do you guys want to get into pharma? Where's Martin? Get Martin Skrey. Can we invent like a boomer like a a boomer therapy to social media?
Cuz I don't think people understand how big of a problem that is. You guys know that. Like I'm glad my mom but didn't I tell you like my dad he like literally like he'll be like bringing up [ __ ] and I'm like where did you [ __ ] hear that? He's like I saw it on a video like oh [ __ ] me dude. And my dad my dad ain't trying to stay relevant.
He just using he's just on his phone. But that's why I'm like, bro, I don't think people talk about the risk of like there is like a whole generation of boomers, especially like the older ones where like, dog, they're a couple of swipes away from just like losing their [ __ ] or it's just like it changes their world view instantly.
It's actually a trip, dude. It's like infomercials but now propaganda. But yeah, I don't know. I wonder if they'll ever like they're like, "We need to protect the children." And we do, but like we need to protect the grandmas. Mark Mark Zuckerberg, please. Can we do something? Can you do something to protect the boomers?
Apple slated to announce updates at WWC in June. A Siri camera mode and upgraded visual AI. Oh [ __ ] Apple popped off that. No way. Visual Siri. Is Apple going to be the first visual AI? They beat Sam to the punch. Israel channel 12 Netanyahu will hold conversation in Trump in light of the announcement of rejecting the Iranian proposal.
So yeah, they did reject it fully. That's the other part of this or that was like the sentcom thing. But keep that in mind. That's like two days, three all week has been this deal, no deal, this deal. Remember they said they're going to resubmit Can I tell a story? My dad sayingqatar would sound like cut hair.
I'm not remembering that one. The only one that comes to mind is when I was uh when I was younger, I had to uh help my dad edit like his emails because he didn't really speak English good. And then he was sending an email to the church about like wrapping gift gifts and presents, but he typed it out raping.
So he said, "I need if anybody wants to help with raping the gifts, you could contact me." So I had to teach him how to spell wrapping cuz he spelled it raping. But yeah, that's the that's the only one I got for you. But I remember that one vividly. That one I'll never forget. It's one of the funniest moments in my life.
APA. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. Now longterm. Yeah. All right. Well, I'm gonna go to the bathroom. It's 9:30. Let's see. You guys want some propaganda? Supreme Court rejects use of voting right in acts and map. Oh, is that stop California too?
Across the country in both Democratic and Republican le states. I mean, the way they draw these maps is crazy. And so having a snake doesn't make much difference when you have like tortoises and other ones. Follow me on Instagram. Different people look at these maps and go, "Well, what does that look like?" Because it doesn't look like anything like you'd think, like a circle around here or a square.
Here's where it it's it's been done for ages this way. And the Supreme Court got rid of the ability to challenge maps based on partisanship. So partisan gerrymanders are fine. And now they've gotten rid of basically the way to challenge it based on race. So racial gerrymanders are fine. And you know uh in the in the uh disscent by Justice Kagan which was really you know emotional.
She talked about the Voting Rights Act being um being raised on the blood of of civil rights marchers. and um she said that this is a three-part plan and basically it's the end of the Voting Rights Act and that it will allow states to dilute the votes of minorities. And Justice Alo who wrote the majority opinion sort of downplayed it.
No, no, no. This isn't really a big deal. We're not overruling the Voting Rights Act. But um if you look at what he's done, it basically is overruling the important parts of the Voting Rights Act. So, it's it's a mental decision and it makes the court look more political. And I just want to say that the six conservatives
justices were at the dinner last night held at the White House, but the liberals were nowhere to be seen. Yeah, I noticed that. You know what else I noticed is that all the the whole lineup from Fox News was there and I'm pretty sure they were not from other networks. I I don't know what's going on.
I just I I felt like I could have enjoyed the do soul. June, thank you. You got a day in store. Uh, you're great. And we'll be listening to an important edition of Bloomberg Law. She's right. Justice Kagan saying the decision renders section two of the law quote all but a dead letter unquote. We're going to be unpacking this throughout the day.
And look, we've got a Fed special that starts an hour from now. This will be something that comes back around on the late edition of Balance of Power. As we keep our eyes now on Capitol Hill, Republicans cannot agree on anything. We've established that and it's going to become a problem pretty soon here when it involves section 702 of FISA and whether the speaker thinks he can throw this on the floor.
They can't get it through the rules committee. They also can't seem to figure out a way to fund DHS. Don't even ask about the farm bill because we don't have enough time with Mike Dorning. Let's bring him in right now. He helps to run our capital influence team here in Washington. It's been too long.
Good to see you. Good to see you. Mike is being described as a conference in dysfunction. Can they get any of these things done? Well, they've been like punting the ball constantly and I would expect they'll punt the ball again if they can't get something done. It's another 10 days or something on FISA.
On FISA, um it's [snorts] really tough. They barely have enough Republicans and they're divided and fractured and as the election comes closer, they have to worry about facing the voters. And so these divisions over, you know, how much uh the federal government should be snooping on people without warrants and things like that come up and uh it's harder to rally them.
is part of the problem that the speaker doesn't want to deal with Democrats on this because there'd be a couple Democratic votes to to extend FISA, maybe even 10 to overcome the Freedom Caucus, right? Yeah. The problem is the more he um that's how you get fired around. He antagonizes the people who keep him employed,
the the bigger the trouble he has with the next vote. So, he's in a tough spot. um he's wrangling these people and unlike Nancy Pelosi, he doesn't have like 10 12 years of stuff that he may have done for them and you know with her like another 10 years earlier raising money for people. He was just thrust into this um and he's got to make the best of it.
I've lost track of how long DHS has been closed. I had it here somewhere like 70s something days now. February 14th Happy Valentine's Day. Happy Valentine's Day. So, the White House kicked out a a memo uh basically ordering House Republicans to get this done here because without this pass 74 days, by the way, they will not be able to pay DHS employees starting next month.
April, what are we at? The 29th of April. Yeah. Is that a motivator? Uh it could be once the TSA people stop getting paid again, but some of the Republicans want to do more on this legislation than what I think of unhuman immigration has to hold the loss weight loss for a year and then I'll believe it.
Okay. Farm bill. I don't know if that's good. House committee probes current parent Airbnb over Chinese AI. Uhoh. Hot dog. You know, apparently hedge funds are going big on Airbnb. They're getting clapped off of that, though. I guess when was the last time Airbnb got a pro besides the broader bands.
Oh, UWMC. Uh, we still have it in Colt Sister. So, I was buying that on the uh swing accounts uh because we were waiting to get it on the lawn term and then by the time I added it to the lawn term, we actually only added it to Colt Sister, believe it or not. But I'm not really the biggest fan of them as much.
I mean, they got hit with all the rates in real estate, but then like their balance sheet, I mean, at one point, was it last year we were up on it and then it flipped. You got a lot of dividends back from it, but yeah, it's uh I don't I really don't like their balance sheet. And then maybe if real estate picks up they'll do a little bit better.
Spies coming down again. The latest headline is the speaking with Netanyahu but other than that they're rejecting of the deal and then you know both sides talking about an attack based on the math and vessel. US exported more crude and refined products last week than Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Iraq and Iran combined.
And there's our price of oil. What's cooler than being cool longterm? Yeah, Microsoft did flip and Nvidia on the low. Everything except Google and Amazon, but Google flip red. Amazon flip. Apple's the one taking it up. I mean, again, you have been going there. NASDAQ has gone negative. So, ever since uh that little three-piece of war headlines essentially, you went down half a percent, SPY's down.3, Russell's down one, and NASDAQ or Dow's down 68.
So, like we [clears throat] said, most of the day has been down like 70%. It's no good. This is no good, habibi. These guys, you know, very crazy. before demand destruction. Uh it's not about as high. It's already high enough. It's about how long. So if this goes into June, July, that's when the demand destruction will probably start to feed through.
So if you're like above 90 or really the hundreds and high hundreds by then, that's the that's the key. And for right now, I mean, we're still 20% from a material high, which is kind of crazy to think about now. Now only 15% after today. But then Brent. So right now that demand destruction and what it's leading to because it's been two months at a new high that's I would be more concerned with Europe and that's where I think it's going to if anything too I would argue your demand destruction is going to start in Europe.
I could almost guarantee that at this point. So it's like if we are good that's like think about it if you're wondering it's a case of when not what for America but and like you have to have oil higher for longer but then it's like it's going to start by spreading from Europe essentially demand destruction in Europe that starts to hit companies activities you know think about it starts in one part of the globe that's a that's your growth rate in some areas then it'll start to spread and then Europe stops buying buying from other people and China and America and that's I I would argue is the path to it.
Everybody thinks it's one way America and oil but like again we are still an exporter as even that last headline will say but I I do think it's going to start uh Yeah, exactly. We have more natural gas there. We're we're chilling off of that. But it's it's Europe is the problem again. The European bonds are breaking out.
Remember when people were freaking out a little bit about our yields and I I was bringing that up earlier this year. I was saying look at these bond yields across the globe. It's everybody else who's started who's going to who's feeling this a lot more. That's the irony. Maybe that's why some of these countries didn't want to engage in the war.
Uh but at the same time, they're paying the highest price for it right now. That's why it's weird that they kind of didn't want to help uh to a certain degree or get directly involved cuz they are the ones that are getting clobbered by it. So, but yeah, that's why I was that's why I kept bringing up Brent today where I'm like, dude, that's a new high.
So, it has been two months, but it does it does tell you something. You can short remember EM you got to go look at what's in the index. But that's why you guys don't remember beginning of this year emotapped on it. It did bounce back, but this is also like Brazilian and a lot of EM is actually energy assets.
So, that's kind of why I think it's up there. World's most powerful reset. No, we already had a mini fileo, but yeah, we're going to have Powell and then earnings again. Powell takes I I don't know. It's going to be his last one. Is anybody betting on like is he gonna say something emotional? Like do you think he's gonna have like a farewell?
Honestly, if Powell's a real one, he'll come out to the Fast and the Furious song. It's been a long day without you, my f. And I tell you all about it when we cut before elections. It's been a long day. Like, I would love it. I would cry. I would totally cry. I think life insurance is good. I mean, depending how old you are and uh I forgot, is it term life insurance?
The one you could use as like investment an interestbearing asset or something like that. But if you're like 19 years old, dude, [ __ ] off. Don't somebody's making a commission on you. But like, you know, the pay if you're going to use it like a long-term I mean, I would prioritize a long-term monthly investment uh versus uh the uh the other one more so than not.
And the boot camp. Oh, let's go, baby. Please get a longterm, too. So, options are going to be good, but get the longterm. Are you a vet, dude? Thank you for your service, man. You know, we like the vets a lot. Every day, baby. Every day. My real estate strategy by single family with meat on the bone and rent them out.
Yeah. I mean, I have kind of pretty diversified in real estate, too, but that that is a simple way to explain it. You know, I'm looking for houses with ultimately good purchase price and equity. I rent some of them. I have a small short-term rental portfolio and then I also do flips and wholesales as well.
But I'd say I think I I just give him the lending tips and then he'll even wholesale or flip them. But I do like equity making the money on the buy. But I do have rentals. I mean, I'm not I I do not get turned off like I was showing you guys by, you know, even a couple hundred bucks a month on a unit with while putting the equity in a real asset with something, you know, leveraging turning 20 grand into 200,000.
I I like that a lot. And that that proper leverage helped me grow uh you know, decently over 10, 15, 20 years almost. So, it's like, geez, I'm getting [ __ ] old. Uh but yeah, but that's the simple way to explain it. Oh, is TLT back to the I mean again I wouldn't it lagged kind of but dude comparing this to European bonds is insane.
But yeah, we are we got a little bit more to go. But yeah, anytime the bonds do get we got like 85 or like 84. Watch AGI comes out at 84 something there. Like I said, that's my tin foil and I believe it. Didn't we get a peace deal at the last time it was here within the couple days of the ceasefire?
But if bonds get if TLT goes to 85 or like 84, maybe even 83, I bet you they're going to cure cancer. Something happens every time. They always come up with some [ __ ] But yeah, otherwise the European bonds have broken their danger zone. That's the That's the irony. So they're panicking, but US is still kind of playing.
All right. stack my whole career. Time to invest, baby. It's good, man. Let's go. Long-term, too. So, again, the options, that's gambling. That's what I call it. Again, you can still learn it. I call all trading gambling. Doesn't mean, you know, I trade, but uh definitely, you know, the full the real full scope of the strategy is long-term and short-term.
You're taking long-term investments with a majority of the money and then you're taking a small amount that could be leveraged into options on riskier plays a small way smaller than what you're holding long-term that'll even help you define your budget. Then you learn the game, but then they mix in together.
But two separate accounts. So my my brother, thank you for your service. I hope I could serve you with this. If you're going to do options, make sure you have a separate account from where you are holding your long-term assets. That's one of the main rules. Okay. That's I don't that rule follow the rules.
You're going to be the rules will keep you safe. Bonds at 5%. That is the catalyst. Yes. And then something happens. Algeria stays committed to OPEC after UAE exit. We're chilling. to track the European bonds. I just go to trading economics. That's where I've usually showed all of you guys over the years, you know, just throw up trade.
That's why I've done this many times where I'll just click on like go look at everybody around the globe, but then really if you focus on the ones that are European, you'll see it. I think every there's a couple place China is probably the only place cuz they have literal deflation. So like this is the part I'm saying is nuts.
So this is the United Kingdom 10. They're already above five. They broke already. That's why I'm saying now you have Brent. This is the part nobody [ __ ] says anything about all the time. Even again Japan [ __ ] freak out about the uh the what's it called? The debt curve. Even Australia. I don't know if Australia's at a record high though.
No, they are now. Yeah, they're at five. Everybody's at five, which is [ __ ] And then Germany. Remember Germany hasn't broken out yet. They're the They're Oh my gosh, they did. No. So Germany's like barely above the fiveyear point, but yeah, they're they're even breaking out. So that's what I'm saying.
Brazil, they're the ones chilling, but again, they're a [ __ ] 13% yield. And then again, they have energy. That's the That's the other part. That's why I was saying like em some of these guys who sell energy and have materials, they're doing fine. So yeah, Russia, they're they got their own India is even climbing back up, but India is a lot worse when they ban cash.
So again, and then there you got the the other China link. Canada even. No, Canada, you guys are doing good for now. So Canada might be the only developed, but then Canada, you guys control a lot of it. And then Italy, this one has to No, Italy, too. They were, it's ironic considering Italy was one of the worst economies.
France is breaking out barely, but they're nowhere near five. But yeah, this is what I'm saying. It's like it's kind of nuts. South Africa and then China, these are the ones are down. Even Switzerland, they should be down. Yeah, not as bad as when the Swiss Frank was getting clapped. So yeah, that's why I'm saying like most of the at least the EU, UK, but you you have 5% yields now.
If that happens in America, like I saying, they're going to come up with something, but people wouldn't be as sang people wouldn't be as sanguin about it. But yeah, that that's where it's like this whole situation. And that's the part I don't, you know, everybody giving you fear porn about demand destruction in oil.
And it's not that I don't believe it's true. I just believe of where it's going to happen and how it's going to start. It's going to happen through Europe. I'd say without a doubt at this point because it's already crushing them. That was one of those tweets I had. You know, you had Carl Kinttonia, some of these guys.
They were like, "America, the oil demand." And I'm like, "What about [ __ ] Europe, dude? Those are the guys who have the most to lose in all this and are actually getting hit right away off of it. Iran oil minister justifies rationing fuel consumption by war conditions. I would not do any short-term and long-term in the same account once done.
All right, man. It's going to take you a couple days. Little by little. It's going to be slow. But yeah, that's why. But like, do you get what I'm saying with like demand destruction because and like how it's going to play out? And again, I could be wrong. Things could change tomorrow. And I'm even under the assumption that once it hits five in America or somewhere near there, they're going to pull pull a rabbit out of a hat.
But it's like the way this war is going on and how it is like it's not going to be like fireworks. It's not going to be boom, you know, it's the dots don't connect in a straight line. It's like if you're really going to see demand destruction, it's going to happen. It's this slow crushing pressure. It's going to start in the UK, Europe, and Germany.
Then do you see how that's going to affect China? That's going to affect America. that's going to affect trade cuz now they're going to have less demand. Their bonds are going to be different. That's going to even change the money flows. Are you guys understanding where it's like that's how demand destruction starts and spreads essentially?
A lot of people I think just cuz the hyperartisanship people think it's like oh oil America gas lines. No, it will. It doesn't mean we won't have demand destruction. But what I'm trying to say, it's definitely not going to start with us. And we're going to get it through all of the other places weakening, which inherently is going to weaken our ability in other ways.
And then then you pretty much need AI to save you. Otherwise, we're all really [ __ ] But you you will get demand destruction caused it. Oh, this has to go on for longer. Again, that longer crushing. This isn't a knockout punch. It's it's a fat person sitting on you. And then it's gonna and then once you're once you get Europe off the board and then you get the UK that then it's going to start spreading there.
And then yeah, even I mean again if you think about North America, Canada is even kind of chilling. So it's like and those will be the last ones to to probably get impacted by it. And then even Mexico, but that's all again North America. I is is Mexico North America? I call it North America. You want to call it South Mexico?
No, it's North America. All America. Okay, Donald. Thank you. AI. I know, dude. There was this guy on YouTube, Faceless Dude. I was listening to him last year, and he was saying how like, "Y'all better hope AI works cuz that's the big beautiful bet." And we've already through the kitchen sink. And he was saying, "It's the big beautiful bet, not the big beautiful bill." Uh, yeah.
I thought he was a Trump supporter. I guess he still said he is, but then yeah, he was explaining how he didn't like the spending and then the war stuff and that the kitchen sinks already thrown. So that if no if this [ __ ] doesn't work, you're you're really [ __ ] Your girl cheated on you and left you.
I have 20k left and I want to turn it into 100k. Help, dude. Go talk to somebody. Those have nothing to do with each other. This is the other guy on his other account. Dude, what are you guys okay today? What happened? We're down half a percent. Not even down a quarter. The NASDAQ is green. Intel is at $93.
What the are Yeah, man. Go talk to somebody, bro. Seek the Lord. Money will not fill that hole. Okay, that's it. I I don't know what to tell you. I don't know what someone said it. They said when people make money, it's like some people kind of go crazy. You have both the miss out, you got the war drama, you have everything.
But yeah, man, I don't Dude, I mean, have you have you not thought about the other side? I like I'm glad I mean, I'll pray for you, dude. And uh you like I'm saying, I'll probably chill. Get a longterm, you know, I think you should get revenge through long-term success cuz I don't think you've thought this through.
You know what I'm saying? Yeah. Go to the [ __ ] gym. But like, you don't know. You don't understand how bad that would be. Your girl cheated on you, then she breaks up with you, and then you lose your last 20k. Bro, that's not Why are you doing this to yourself? Just take a break, man. I go to the gym.
I develop a plan. Let's get long-term success. You know what I'm saying? You You'll figure it out. But I don't think uh I don't know if you've looked at the other side of this coin if this doesn't work. Who told your mom not to buy Intel when it hit 40? That's the other guys. You guys are in the middle.
Why didn't you tell mother to buy it at 20? That's the part that do you guys see? Remember I told y'all last year I was like people get mad at me no matter what and they they give me this shade cuz I'm like it doesn't even matter if I make money or lose money. They got to find something like like we're in a [ __ ] relationship.
My girlfriend don't even do this. My girlfriend bought Intel at 20. She listens. So that's my question. They're like, "Well, Josh, you said not to buy it at 60." I said buy it at 20. [screaming] They're like, "Oh, 40." I'm like, "You were watching when it was at 40. That's a one-year badge. It's a one that's for it was eight months ago." But that's the problem.
That's the part where I think you're getting another another segment of the crowd. They're like, "Well, yeah, but you said not to buy it at 60." I know. I told everybody not to buy it at 60. Why would we bought it at 20? So, yeah, that is kind of the the thing. No, but like does it make sense? Like that's what I'm saying.
I I've gotten that like subtle comment like four times today. Then you got the guys who are like, I missed everything. I must gamble all my money. And then you have the Chads who bought it at [ __ ] 20. They've been doing this [ __ ] for five years with everything else. They're like, "Hah, wow. I'm going to go shop for a house." [ __ ] you guys.
[ __ ] yeah. You see, you guys are part of the problem, too. Everybody is. Nobody Nobody could be happy. I mean, nobody could be happy. Why can't you just be happy, bro? That's it. Be be happy with it. Mhm. He's like, "My girl cheated on me. You neglected her." Okay. You neglected her. Why? Don't bring Don't bring the market in your money into this.
Okay, that's it. I don't care what And it was at $20. I made a video begging people and they're like, "Huh, [ __ ] you, Trump supporter. [ __ ] you." Bloomberg Wall Street Journal said no. Like, why are you What did I do? Why is this so Why is it so political? I said I want you to make money. I was buying it before Trump.
I literally So, yeah, man. I don't know. I don't know. H I mean I guess technically the government made like $30 billion when you think about it. It's very widespread today and it's POW day and its earnings. So yeah, but like that's the thing though. I'm not trying to shame any of you for not buying it at 20.
You know what I'm saying? But like you shouldn't shame yourself for following the rules cuz like that's the problem is that if you're like, "Okay, I'm going break." Do you see? you just follow the system, follow the mechanics, bro. And that's why that was something I was encouraging last year. That's why last year I only made a couple of videos cuz this kind of this scenario at hand where people would kind of get so caught up in all the short-term plays and I would make a video every day, the watch list, and people get distracted and then the like the super easy ones for some reason were dropping the ball on that one.
Like, you know what I'm saying? So, I'm not trying to shame you about it. That's why it's like, but bringing up like, oh, you could have bought it at 60. It's It's like that's not what got us the gain. Even if you bought it at 60, you would be up 50%. We are up 270%. You know what I'm saying? So, and it's like, well, you'll learn.
You don't need a third. Well, you all have a third eye, your pineal gland, but you don't, like I'm saying, like, you know, and Chad, that's why I'm telling you, make you you watch the channel. I inc you don't need to follow along. No one's pumping on you. I don't like any of that [ __ ] You'll learn the game and you'll pick up on it.
Like for real, if you really understand how we are following the mechanics in the system, things will become obvious. Like I'm telling you with Intel the imagine the guys who watched for a long time. They watched me not buy anything for 4 months and right when that came out within seconds I put all of the money into it.
You know, that's a signal. You know what I'm saying? And the people who are like, "Oh, okay. You you said you were waiting. You're going to stack up cash." And like I said, I acknowledged it wasn't a diamond, but I felt it was a gem. And it's like, you got to be in the moment. And just like don't get lost in the sauce.
Don't be emotional. Again, a lot of times it doesn't look a certain way, but we're we're following some rules and we're looking for value. It's like you got to learn how to do that. So, I ain't trying to shame y'all for missing it. You know, I'm making jokes, but at the same time, I do I do think every little uptick on it, people are like, "Oh, well, [ __ ] I should have bought I should have took so much more risk to make way less." It's like, "No, that's not that's not actually what we're teaching.
That's not what we're trying to accomplish. We're trying to make our money on the buy and do it." And yeah, you could do it, man. Uh, is it okay to cash out on Intel to buy a rental? [ __ ] yes, it is, dude. Thank you. Thank you, dude. You're the first one to ask me that in the right way. You know that.
Not in the right way, but you just That's the rule. You see what I'm saying? They're like, "Josh, is it okay to sell out Intel so I could invest in quantum computer energy binary options? Is that okay, Josh? I feel like the world has gone to [ __ ] and evil. I don't know why it took me this long to realize that everybody is a PDF and that they are scamming the system.
women, I'm so far behind, Josh. I'm Can I sell my lawn term to make a gamble? No, no, but you can sell it to go buy a house. That's exactly why I did that last year. That was the Intel video, believe it or not. Uh the video of us buying Intel was after we bought the farm, and that was the whole point of me buying the farm was to say, you know, you just doubled up, tripled up your money.
If you really, whatever you feel, turn it to the right place to grow your future and keep going it up there. You know what I'm telling you? So that's it. You wasted my three years of life gambling. You're speaking the truth the monthly. Well, I don't think it's wasted if that's truly going to be your mentality moving forward.
That's what I'm say. That's why I I'm honestly telling people to do it. You know what I'm saying? Cuz you could you could listen to me for years and it won't hit, dude. And it won't like that's what I'm saying. I ain't trying to change your mind. I ain't trying to convert y'all. Do whatever you need to do.
But it's like if you get sometimes you got to waste time and go backwards, but you'll really learn it. But if that builds up the foundation where like you don't like where you're going to actually have a future, then you know, I'd say it's a worthy investment and that's that's all it is. But I'd encourage you to keep following the rules.
And that's why it's like don't and don't get bothered. That's what happened in co. Don't get bothered when the rules you're like, "Oh, I should have followed the I could have, should have, would have. These guys made that. I could have done this and if I just did this." It's like, "Yeah, dude. And if I was six feet tall, I would be in the NBA.
Okay? You don't see me [ __ ] crying about that. What the [ __ ] [screaming] God, you know what I'm saying? But you got to just telling you slow and steady this plan and you got to see it. I think the best part is now you are hearing this from three live examples thousands of people thousands of people who have we've gone through everything gone through COVID gone through crisis you name it in the last six years bro you've you've dodged everything and all it did was grow whether you had a small amount or a large amount and like I was saying even the smallest amount two 300 bucks you literally have a down payment now and I at some point five, six years ago that felt impossible for some people.
That's that whole hopelessness. And I could agree, it always looks that way. But I'm telling you, you stuck with it and you just did this [ __ ] It [ __ ] works. And that's what I want. I want it to serve y'all. And that's why even last year, this year, that's why I'm saying, bro, it just you got to make it work for you.
But, you know, sometimes the the [ __ ] up is actually worth it if you actually learn and get the future going. You just the time I should finish that Jim Rome now even though we're going lower. Yeah, let me finish it. I got distracted. So profits are better than what servant to the lender cuz listen he talked to time and if you want to be in a powerful position as you grow older finally when you become mature maybe have your own business things have worked out for you for the future.
The position you always want to be in is the power position and that's called the lender. The lender is the power position. So if kids learn early enough and then you ask them what they'd like to be when they grow up, I'm telling you, once they understand, they'll say, "Well, one of the things I want to be is one of those lenders." That's the power position, not the spender.
No, you'll be pied the rest of your life if you just become a spender. You got to become a lender. And I think this is one formulas to follow. 10 cents out of every dollar. Let someone else use it. Be the lender. Power position. Then try to show out of every dollar. Can't we teach our children how to take a dollar, search the neighborhood, find a broken wagon, pay a dollar for it, bring it home, you know, clean it up, sand it until it's clean, paint it red till it shines, straighten out the wheels till they're true, take it back to the neighborhood, sell it for $5.
Anybody can do that. Now, does the child deserve $4 profit? And the answer is yes. Society now has a mended wagon. And that's what America's all about. finding something, touching it, making it better, making a profit, taking part of your resources, helping people who can't help themselves. Let someone else use it to make a profit.
Some projects require more capital than one person has. Exciting. And then let them pay you for the use of it. Capital in the hands of the kids, capital in the hands of the people, enterprises that make a profit, enterprises that grow. It's the hope of our future. So that little simple formula I hope will help you.
Now one more key on financial independence and that is attitude. Attitude. Here's number one I used to say I hate to pay my bills. My teacher straightened me out on that. He said let's see Mr. Owen what you hate to do is pay $100 on an account and reduce your liabilities and increase your assets. I said well no not if you look at it that way.
He said, 'Well, it all depends on how you look at it. So, wouldn't you love to pay your bills, reduce your liabilities, increase your assets? You got to have that kind of attitude. I found out the same attitude about taxes. I used to say, "I hate to pay my taxes." And Mr. Show said, "Well, that's one way to live, but don't you understand taxes is how we care and feed the goose that lays the golden eggs."
Wouldn't you want to do your share? Someone says, "Yes, but the goose eats too much." Probably true, but hey, we all eat too much. We all need to go on a diet. Better a fat goose than no goose. So I finally became a happy taxpayer. Now I think taxes are too high. I'm working to get taxes lowered for our economic future.
But then whatever they turn out to be, I gladly pay do my part cuz that's what makes the whole system run. Each of us doing our part. Now I want these three subjects to be valuable for you. I want them to have meaning for you. Uh, I want you someday to be financially independent. Uh, I want you to have the personal development so that you feel good about yourself.
Thank you, Jim. Thank you. I don't know what they feel me, bro. They don't feel, bro. Something attitude. Yeah. Better a fat goose than no goose. I know. And that's like think about what you're doing with your lawn. That's what you're doing with your lawn term. You're saving and you're lending your capital.
You're giving it to these companies. That's why good ones hopefully they return it back. But that's why whether you get into real estate or other stuff and that's it. Little by little it stacks up. You build up your assets, you are going to move into the position of more power. you are going to instead of being at the mercy of something at the mercy of anything.
So I don't know Chad, it's a great one. It's a great one and shout out to longterm. I hope man I hope. But yeah man, just keep going. Keep going. Literally and you got that's he was talking in the beginning 17 to 35. That's it. That's why too all of you should get your kids on this. If you have young kids, bro, they're going to even reap more rewards than all of you.
and even like 16, 17 years old, you get them with this small ass lawn term, you get that going. It's it's just all this is all going to compound. But even if you started at 30, by the time you're 45, 47, maybe sooner in this type of environment, like it's just like you got to really think about it. But that's how it all grows.
And it sucks though, you guys know, because this is what happened with Colt Sister and this is what happens. Actually, every time Intel so far has hit a crazy price, we have these conversations. You know why? Cuz this is the moment the [ __ ] regret sets in. Yes or no? Let's be real. I'm not trying to [ __ ] with you.
But that's why I'm saying these moments kind of suck. Cuz I hope you're like, "Ah, I want to do it now." now, but it's like we didn't get here because of just today. And it's like you got to really understand this is where day after day, month after month, it is the process. And if you start that sooner than later, the sooner you do it.
The longer you hold, the less riskier it becomes. So, I hope they feel, Chad. I hope they feel drum 11. I was saying 10 today. I don't know why. Maybe I'm just heartbroken. Mhm. We felt that and it's up. Good. Yeah. Well, if you're already in it, this just motivates you. You're like, "Fuck yeah. I got the endurance.
What I'm saying that people like, "Okay, I want to start this now." It's like, I still think you should. The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. Second best time is today for your baby. Um, you could start with anything. I mean, again, that's the beauty of starting a long term. That's what we were saying today.
It's again, you know, most people want to do it after things are going up. It's like, think about it. We're near all-time highs. So, you're probably not going to get the best deal to start now. But what really matters for the the long term for your newborn is if you keep doing it. Uh, you know what I'm saying?
So, it's really that first year really is going to kind of matter the most. But the first couple positions you buy, you might buy them higher or lower, but that's not going to be the whole portfolio. What's it matters what you do of both saving and adding capital to it and then, you know, buying the value and the right growth as as time goes on.
And that's what I'm trying to say. It's all that consistency. That's what uh what gets us doing it Coco. Isn't that Vit Coco? Dude, oil is climbing. It's actually I'm like I'm saying I'm pretty sure people are losing it with the fact this market's so stable. Oh yeah, bro. But we'll see. I'm not having I still Yeah, I do think the midterm money glitch and again unless that was the low like we've acknowledged that where maybe we had the low but you know take a look.
I mean [ __ ] we're we're high but a lot of risk still remains and if it's not the whole market that comes down I do think other things will hit a low prior to the midterm but that's what I'm saying. That's why I'm stacking my cash now for, you know, again, we have growth that's running. We're almost fully invested.
Even if I didn't buy anything, my max cash would be 5% by October. So, it's like I do think uh I'm I'm I'm going to deploy all that capital by by October. And if I could get a real good deal on something high quality and a fair price, I'll I'll put it I'll do it tomorrow if you give it to me. But if that doesn't show up, we're we're going to wait.
And then by that time, uh, we'll evaluate and see what what's really offering the best deal. Oh, I was like, what the [ __ ] is this? Yeah, this is Colt sister. Yeah, it's not about saving a bunch then investing. It's about little by little consistently. Amen. And that's the thing too I was talking about and I know the there's fast money out there and you see the market and the options and all that, but I'm telling you your long-term will teach you when you could you'll start to build up a real good foundation where you'll be able to to either understand the extra risk and either know how to avoid it wisely or again how to use a small amount and now give yourself all you know reward yourself for what you know about the market.
But right off the bat, you should be having a long-term and it's little by little and that's going to grow. Again, it's already worked in every scenario. I have not been on again at some times we've had to eat some [ __ ] for a little bit by it being small by buying and then it rips and we're like, "Oh, we wish we had more.
I would have made this." We've done all that. We've had to buy [ __ ] and it not move for a couple months. We got to go negative. But all in all, when you every year it goes up and it's going up at a great rate. So, it's like you're going to it's going to work. It's going to grow your capital. The high quality.
Go look at the latest trading fraternity video. The one where I buy Oracle. I explain quality. I give my indicators and then I use uh somebody greater than me, Benjamin Graham. Uh so you could kind of understand. But it's a company that's been in business for 10 years and will most likely be in business for another 10.
makes a certain amount amount of revenue, like things like that make something quality. But if you really wanted to dumb it down and simplify it, it's usually it's been around for 10 and it'll be around for another 10. That's uh again the best sign of quality is it's already successful. It's already done well.
And that right, that's why too, you don't really even need to invest in the next be next big thing. Most of them you already know about and they're successful. But think about even that little gym ran. You want to give money to somebody who has proved that they they make money and they're going to use your money, your capital, and they're going to keep making money with it and then you get your cut of it.
That was great advice on not selling prior to being in escrow and inspections. I thought it was guaranteed. It wasn't. I backed out with no regrets or stress. [ __ ] yeah, dude. I wish you No, I still I want you to get a house. But yeah, dude. Good [ __ ] work. I'm glad you listened. Most people That's one of those things that you would have had to learn the hard way, but that just saved you the tax liability and you caught all the gains, too, in the meantime.
It could have you could have lost, too, though. You know what I'm saying? Like your lawn term could have went down in that process. But, you know, that's kind of the you but there's also the risk of the property, too. And at least you didn't feel like you were forced to do anything. But yeah, dude, I like that.
Good review. Trump asked Netanyahu to work more carefully and not bring down buildings in Lebanon because it would damage their image. We're working to prevent the collapse of the ceasefire in Lebanon during the next two weeks and beyond. Do I think TOPS could go back to the 2008 prices? Just let me verify.
You mean $381 billion a share? You know, I could be wrong, but I don't think so. I don't this has been reversplitted and diluted many times probably but I don't know much about it but yeah I don't know if it will get back to the previous $380 billion high. I don't know I could I don't I didn't count all the digits but I'm just eyeballing it.
JPAL will go over a quick preview in like 15 minutes like right before. So yeah, I got I only I have simple I don't even have a document for you. Uh but I do think it's pretty simple today. I got one good thing though. I got one good thing. Uh I got one potential statement change. Uh and then I have a uh I have a a good elephant in the room that I don't think people are addressing.
It might be a good time. Might be a good time. Mumba [singing] [singing] stunks go up, my friend. Stunks go. Dips get bought, my friend. Dips get bought. Boom boom. K my [singing] longterm. All you need, bro. Pros and cons. You have a low mortgage payment on your home. Do I look for another home to rent out or stack some cash to buy a rental?
Kind of at the crossroad. Look for another What do you mean like sell your home and buy another or they sound like both? You're looking for another home. No, but like I'm saying that one of the best things, especially if you already got a good home you live in, you know, you already did that. You're on cycle number two.
Uh, like I'm saying, that's why some of you I don't know what amounts [clears throat] you're dealing with, but it's like you could all you could liter I would tell you right now, start looking right now so you're getting the time and then actually maybe you'll stumble across something good, but there should be at least several hundred of you that could turn an Intel into even a cheap home.
Uh, and like I'm telling you, like just one position, like we could legitimately sell half of the YouTube account and turn that into a home and ideally have it pay for itself and then be lower budget so that we could limit future expenses or any downside. That's what I was trying to show y'all the other day.
Oh, like move to another one. What's your interest rate on the current home? That's what what really matters. Oh [ __ ] Hold on. I got to let this [ __ ] animal outside. I forgot. I kind of want to listen to the Powell song again. Give me a second. I'll see you at the podium adjusting that signature tie while the market [singing] holds its breath.
Waiting for a dove to fly. We're all just betting [singing] on the syntax of your every phrase. Lost in the hawkish mist. Caught in a datriven haze. [singing] I heard the whispers early clarin behind the door. [singing] Ethics codes and trading flows. Who could ask for more? The bosics still [singing] in favor while the rest of us just wait for a signal in the noise before it's all too late.
[music and singing] So take me to Jackson Hall and fill a hole in my heart. As these moments fade away, let's make a brand new star. My love's not transitory for you. Even as your printer cuts through the lock down in my heart stimulus that starts. You gave us that gift in 24 [singing] right before the polls.
A little trim to keep us slim. Or so the story [singing] goes. Credibility is fragile when the politics get loud. But you're the silver lining in every fiscal cloud. Though you drown in liquidity before the flush, a housing market rush, but you still can't break my [music and singing] crush. And although you and your bic are so tight, jealousy is not my thing.
I don't want to fight. So take me to Jackson Hall and fill the hole in my heart. As these moments fade away, let's make a brand new star. My love's not I watch every pow every day. I've never missed a pow in my life. Putin, what is this? Trump believes a deal to settle Ukraine conflict is close. Putin told Trump that Ukraine uh ceasefire Putin proposed the Ukraine ceasefire during May Victory Day celebrations.
Trump and Putin discuss potential for economic and energy projects. Wow. That might be your midterm thing before they end the war. The other one. Isn't that beautiful? Take me to Jackson Hole and feel the hole in my heart. That hits so heavy, bro. Mhm. Yeah, bro. I just got peed on by the dog. This dog.
Does your dog do this? Like, he's seen me. He knows I'm here and I see him. And if I go to pet him, he gets excited and he'll pee on me. No, just me. Oh [ __ ] Cuz I do. This is terrible. I hate it. I'm like, he just gets so You know what it reminds me of? It reminds me when I'm like, "Hey guys, don't buy that option for more than one penny." You're like, "Market order a dollar, $100." I'm like, "Okay, I guess you just pissed all over it, huh?" A little excited.
Mhm. This is ridiculous. My love isn't transitory. It's not. It's not, man. He loves you. Yeah, I love him, too. But yeah, bro, he needs camping. He grew out of it. I'm pretty sure this dog is like three years old now. I know. He does it a lot. So, good to see you, He needs training. I know. Listen, dude.
It's It's terrible. Like, so my girl is so wild cuz like if I'm driving with her and I like burp, if I burp, my girl gets so mad. She's like, "It smells. It smells." Ah, am I okay? And then if this [ __ ] dog just shits everywhere and [ __ ] pisses when you say hi to it, she's like, "Oh, [screaming] fuck." I'm like, "How?
How? This makes no sense." I'm like, "I burped. It's a burp. That's the other one's urine. It's literal feces." Yeah. I'm like, "You have the standard. I don't I don't understand the standard of it all. No, she gets mad. He doesn't really eat shoes. He did it once. I smell piss, dude. That's not Come on.
Is Pal going to be a pisser? What if you piss everywhere? Believe me, I've suggested this. She said she'd call the police. She said that's not normal. I'm like, okay, you have a point, but sometimes I need to make my point, you know, cuz it's true. I would be that would be a little concerning if I just started pissing everywhere.
That moan woke up your girlfriend and she's pissed. Dude, it's 10:30. That's on the West Coast. Most of the world right now is It's 1:00. Is is your girl respectfully, is she a stripper? Why is she doing sleeping this late? Is it that she not work till later? What are you talking about? 10:30 1:00 a.m.
I just had a fo on waking up early. How dare you? I feel the hole in my heart. I take it out. Yeah, usually I have the dog though. The last day or so, my girl left him with me. She had to do some things. So I said, "I got him." Who let the dogs do out? Who? Who? Who? Who? And fill the hole in my heart.
She's an EMT. That's why I asked. I was aware. Said just in case. So then why are you [ __ ] playing loud [ __ ] while she needs to get rest to go to her actual respectable job. Either way, you're taking the blame, William. You see what I'm saying? Don't [ __ ] put this on me. They're like, "No, no, no, no.
I The guy who doesn't show his face and is literally known partly for being annoying and loud." I'm like, "Oh, yeah. This is a great idea. I'm going to play him out." Oh, yeah. On Powell Day. On Powell Day. I'm sure I'm sure he's going to be like that. So, no, you you unfortunately you are getting all of it.
I'm going to stay for the earnings. Yeah, I am a little sad for the last pile, bro. She said, "My girl got to wake up early for her job. Let me blast some loud [ __ ] while I gamble." I say, "William, I'm not the problem, William. You know what I'm saying? I don't think I'm the problem, but you know, I'll take the blame." Listen, if you need to blame me, I apologize.
You're right. But I'm just saying, you know, you have a longterm, William. How's the lawn term looking? Because if you now this is going to get sticky if you ain't got no lawn term. Mhm. Is Nigel coming? No, dude. Nigel's a boomer. So he kept watching the news like he said he got stuck in Australia due to their uh their restrictions on the you know the fizer.
That's why we didn't see him last time. They wouldn't let him. And then fast forward uh I mean pretty much Nigel says he will not come on and support this Zionist stream. I'm like Nigel I'm not a Zionist. He's like I don't care. No. And then so Nigel I don't know what [ __ ] Nigel is bro. That's what I'm saying.
And we lost another boomer, bro. But it's up to him. I know. I'm still very disappointed in everybody yesterday. That's why I still I didn't make that video yet, but I will. Well, I don't know. Do you guys want me to make a Zionist video or do you want me to make a a video with a play? I guess I'll let you guys choose.
Odd is on the high. That's 4%. You might have something. It's already fading. And fill the hole in my heart. Oh, they're already Is that earnings? What is this thing? It doesn't really move much. It's already came down, actually. Again, latest headline here is the Trump Putin thing. OPEC likely to agree oil output quota hike at Sunday meeting without UAE.
Sources say You got a lawn term. I take my girl's paycheck and buy everything you buy. Cuz you're not building a strong case here, will you? Okay, bro. You're not making a strong case here. What do you mean? I use my girl. Yo, Josh, I got the law term. I use her paycheck. What are you Are you What about your gambling right now?
Hold on. You want one? You got one Z in this video. Two people want to play and fix a hole in my heart. And then, bro, you're using her money for the long term and then you're [ __ ] waking her up. I I'm not following, man. I'm not following. Yeah, I got a long-term relationship, Joshua. All right, man.
Well, let's get a let's get a mini fed preview. How does that sound? Does that sound like something I could interest you guys in? Holding my heart. All right, we'll begin here in two minutes if that is acceptable. We'll get a quick little review on the statement and some uh elephants in the room that you'll need to discuss.
So, get ready for it. Uh let me play you a jam and then we'll we'll begin. And then we'll begin. Let's get you some uncle. Jesus. Praise God. Amen. Amen. It's a call, baby. Hey. Yeah. If we talking plays. Yeah. I'm in there like swimware. I've been there. I've done this [ __ ] for 10 years. You could have it all, but you've been scared.
Big scare. Funny part. There wasn't even risk there. My thoughts belong. Yeah. I've been clear. No fear. Oh dear. Who you trying to control here? My God is the weapon. I ain't boasting. Nah, it's done. Daddy said it's finished. [snorts and music] Made me in his image, but that always made me timid. Wonder why we different.
Don't you ever get it twisted. It's the only way we get it. Set apart from the start. And the heart is in ours. It's a hippie with the love, but it's David with the sard. I want peace. So that means you going to kill me if it's war. Cheats can't beat on the arc. Want it easy or hard? Want a genie or a god?
Then believe me, little bra. You a child. You a son of the highest and above. Don't deny it. We don't like it when they tell us who we are. I can tell you who I was. I can tell you who we is. I can make another song that's telling y'all about the credit. But for a second, keep it real. It's not the reason they will kill.
It's the freedom and believing they want that to bring the wind to. But I rather have it now. And I ain't never backing down. Lying going to eat me or turn his ass around. Either way, I will remain up in his name and say a prayer. He had to say it now. Jesus. I put Jesus on the beat so I could listen to it.
I got reason to believe that we living in it. You could say it's one hell of a decision in it. Hey, if we talking plays, yeah, I'm in there like swim where I've been there. I've done this [ __ ] for 10 years. You could have it all, but you've been scared. Big scare. Funny part, there wasn't even risk there.
My thoughts been my own. Yeah, I've been clear. No fear. Oh dear. Who you trying to control here? My God is the weapon I ain't boasting. Amen. Amen. My thoughts been my own. Yeah, been clear. You know that song right after Intel? They don't feel me. They don't feel me, dog. That was your your Intel motivational track.
Intel inside. All right, Chad. Well, let's begin our basic Fed preview. I wish I had more for you today. Uh even though it's Powell's last meeting, which is probably the most important. Uh he's not going to uh you know, he's not going to he shouldn't say anything about Wars uh in terms of you know, he might not even discuss they're going to ask him about they're going to ask him about whether or not he's going to stay on and his plan.
He might not answer that, but they're definitely going to ask him about it. He's definitely going to talk very broadly about Worsh but without, you know, kind of talking about investigations and then remember Worsh hasn't been confirmed yet. Although he passed one of that, was it the House today? He still technically needs to get voted in.
So Powell's going to use that as an excuse to not really talk about it. Okay? And that's what you got to think about. But that's not the most important part. Uh unfortunately it just there's no summary of economic projections and he's probably not going to say much. And the same thing with like rates as well as inflation uh and jobs.
That's that's all that matters. So uh you should know this by now as far as like finding the release and this is the projected change. You may get less dissenters today, but remember you go to the Fed website, monetary policy, meeting calendar and information. Uh, and then you hit statement. This is the brand new one's going to come out.
But where is it? So, right here is the expected change. So, remember this shocked everybody last time. That's what a lot of people forgot. Remember the economy was kind of slowing in some data sets. ISM was booming, but last meeting was a week or two after the war. You had high oil. Please don't forget this, right?
Because we were coming into everything a little like volatile. People were kind of freaking out. And then Powell comes on. Summary of economic projections. They raised the growth rate. They raised the GDP and unemployment didn't budge. And even inflation, Powell didn't touch it. You guys remember that, right?
So, like I'm telling you this time around, be on the lookout if this changes. He's either going to do the exact same thing as last time where they keep economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. That was surprising. So, and that was surprisingly dovish. And that's the thing you want to look for today.
Essentially, this is pretty much the only projected change where he changes economic activity if they downgrade it. If they say expanding at a solid pace, if they change that to is expanding at a moderate pace or modestly or if they say it moderated and that it has slowed down, that will be hawkish in terms of the economy.
And then we want to see if they they're probably going to keep unemployment the same. And then talk about the inflation, the dual mandate, but that's pretty much it for the change. And now that's the next part. That's all we're going to get. You're going to get this statement. So, you're going to react more to the press conference about 30 minutes afterwards.
So, keep that in mind. Uh 30 minutes afterwards, you're more likely uh to actually get get a reaction or a change. So, yes, this is Powell's last one, but now all that matters is jobs and inflation. So, we want to see what he says about jobs. Again, nothing has really changed much, so we're not expecting too much.
But now, inflation, you have had oil up. Oil has been up now for couple of months. So now this is not remember last time he came out we were worried about oil. We were worried about war economic activity. Jerome Powell started talking about tariffs. Do you guys remember that? That was mindblowing. And that's why they said infl they weren't worried about inflation even if oil was literally right at I think it was at $100 last time was it not?
Yeah. To give you context, oil was around $100 at the last POW between 101 and 84 after that too. No, that was the week later. Yeah, [ __ ] me, dude. So, literally last Powell oil was at 100. Low is 91. So, yeah, kind of crazier than the range here now. But even crude oil, Brent was high, too. Uh, if you want to go back and look at it.
So remember, you had high oil and then he came out and he said tariffs. And that's the thing if you haven't realized at this point, he has used tariffs like transitory cuz he says tariffs and then we expect it to go down later. That's transitory. It's literally the same definition of transitory just packaged into the the word tariffs is how is how he's viewing it.
So if he says that again, that's what we want to see. if he ra if he acknowledges this oil increase, the demand destruction, all of that, that's where he's going to talk about it. And then the bullish part, uh, even if he acknowledges inflation, but then he talks about the dual mandate and then he says something along, you're going to get some, he might say this verbatim, he's going to say something about rate hikes not being the base case.
That will be dovish. So essentially, he could acknowledge the prices, he could acknowledge inflation, whether it's due to the war, most likely tariffs is what he'll say, but then he's going to say, "Yeah, that doesn't mean that rate hikes are on the table or that where we could only use rate hikes to defend against this." Cuz again, it's all based off of oil.
So that's really the only other main thing. And now, are you ready for the elephant in the room? This is the elephant in the room. I love it. I love it. This is something and I don't know if he's going to do this on his final meeting, but you have to understand the dynamic. The market has been kind of crazy.
The market even today market not moving. Oil is ripping. We've seen we've seen a lot of things, right? A lot of why this doesn't make sense. The market's broken. It's rigged. All of this, right? This isn't new. You've seen this before. And what is Powell's role in all of this? is that as the Fed chair, he can confirm or deny risk.
Huh? I hope you're following me on this one. So, essentially, this is what happened in 2022, 2023. Do you guys recall? Markets went down, then they bounced really big. Everyone said, "It's fine. Ignore everything." And markets ignored everything. This is not the first time a lot of risk has been on the table and markets have ignored it.
And when it keeps ignoring it is because Powell ignores it. And when the market does actually acknowledge it, it's usually because the Fed chair has acknowledged it because that starts to indicate policy. So he might not do this because most people are assuming the Fed isn't going to want to change policy at all.
Right? They want to kind of do this wait and see be in this position. You're only pricing two rate cuts, call it a day. But do you get what I'm saying? This is the elephant in the room right now. Because if hypothetically 2 months, if things are really getting bad, if Powell wants to confirm the risk, that will make the market acknowledge the risk.
So if Powell starts saying inflation, oil and then yo, you know, even then and then he starts bringing up stuff more related to the war and and getting away from tariffs and more and getting away from transitory and more towards just even acknowledging the risk out there with demand destruction as well as oil.
I think the markets will will start to to price that in. And now the markets are going to say, "Yo, I don't I don't think we could ignore this anymore." And then vice versa, just like he did last time. That's what happened last time. Think about it. You were ripping two weeks later, a week and a half later when Powell came on.
SCP statement read way more dovish, no acknowledgement, and then you had all of the news, and then we got into earnings. You get what I'm saying? And then you were ripping. You had one of the best Aprils in history. You're up 10% on the month. And then you had a bunch of streaks. Now, think about it.
Shortly after Powell, if you really want to put it into perspective. So, and that was because he denied the risk because Powell said, "No, uh, we're we're focused on tariffs. The war, it could last, but you know, the war and ter but tariffs will will come back down eventually and economic activity is solid." You see what I'm saying?
So, yeah, if he comes up today and acknowledges risk, that will probably be a black swan. Uh if he doesn't though, uh he might moderate it and acknowledge it slightly. If he does acknowledge it to a high degree, that'll be negative. But then if he does kind of go a little crazy with it, uh that'll be really bad.
And then if he kind of plays the same card, doesn't acknowledge the risk, the market will probably tend to be a little bit more sanguin about all of it. So, tada. And yeah, so that is it, my friends. That is it. That's all I have for you. Watch to see if he acknowledges the risk of the war or not. The jobs and inflation and how that relates to either dual mandate and rate cuts and then change in economic activity to modest from uh or from solid to modest is the final part of it.
And again, it's not a SCP. The the thing that's important about this, you got a new Fed chair and then you got pow pow in the house. So, tada. Any questions? and his opinion is a little fearful. He has no weight anymore. He does and he doesn't. Although I think Powell is a lame duck and we were saying that for a while.
Like you see how much they [ __ ] love this guy, right? So, you know what I'm saying? And like you could like a lot of them are Powell parrots and if he's going to want to stay on and do other stuff, it's kind of just more signs of the institution as a whole and how everybody's going to lean. So, it's like if he's willing to say it and acknowledge the risk, you you know, they're going to everyone's going to [ __ ] parro it.
What's up with the candle right there? This could just all be a pre-pow pre-powification candles, dude. I don't think you're going to get I mean the hardcore Timmy questions will probably resol revolve around inflation uh and inflation and the war and demand destruction but that's what I'm saying how he responds to that will give you an idea the Nvidia squeezes the signs very simple uh it's I think the Nvidia is very binary if the earnings are good across the board people are going to start get getting hyped on the other ones if the earnings are bad the The video calls are probably going to be done up until hype returns to the market.
Very binary. Dropbox on the high China unveiled a flying car. Jeez, isn't that the like is Joby American? I think it might be. Good old Duckconomics. Oh, I know, dude. You remember the Duckconomics? Mhm. Timouse and Wars. Oh, I don't know who is going to be the next one. I don't know if Nick Timmerouse and uh Kevin Hasset like get along like that now that I think about it.
It's kind of crazy. HPE keeps going up and then Dvita, you got a couple of poppers here. I don't know what moved the spy. You're back to those uh three warhead lines that we had earlier. And then Apple went up on WDC. Intel is just amazing. You think he'll talk about private credit risk? Not in the statement.
No. But they'll definitely ask him a question about it. Somebody will. But they did acknowledge it and it really hasn't been in the headlines as much. You know, cons coming into March 19th that was way more dominant. But besides Jamie Diamond's comment yesterday, I don't think we've uh we've actually heard much.
Will I give you a eight mile Powell freestyle? Uh, I didn't have one prepared uh to be honest with you, so it's kind of hard to say. I know we could try it. Let me see. Let's see what we got. You should remember all of you probably at one point in school did this. Yo yo everybody in the FB put your mother and hands up and follow me.
Uh everybody in the FB put your mother and hands up. But nobody stand up. Notice that the stock market is still up. This war stuff got you gassed up. Now who's afraid of the co may one two three four one two pot three four one shah two shah three shah four four shah three shah shahed no more. This guy ain't no mother.
I know everything cuz he got the shape like a bola. I don't make no sense. H I did buy cars at the low. Uh Intel still is the best in the world. Y'all, you don't like me, you shoot me. This is day six of challenging the guy named Dollari. I hate you. Play you probably made more money trading than all of us.
But [ __ ] you, too. The best I could do, man. That's just You know what I'm saying? You didn't give me time to prepare. Ain't no such things as halfway cuts. [screaming] Scared to diss. Scared to look at the [ __ ] Facebook. [ __ ] be fair boy. You know what I'm saying? That makes sense. Oh, okay. Sorry.
I don't know. That's not for everybody. I don't know if the target demographic. Some of you might be offended by that. Some be like, Josh, you woke up my whole family. Josh, my whole family works at a monastery and they needed peace and silence. And I was getting ready to prepare for all of these gambling events on the market.
I was playing you through my JBL speakers, Josh. You should have kept it down and not screamed. How dare you, Joshua. Like, what the [ __ ] dude? Halfway cuts, like rate cuts, because that's true. You can't do a halfway rate cut unless you're Japanese. Do you know that? That's a good learning lesson.
Technically, the Japanese in the Bank of Japan, they have incorporated halfway cuts. They don't cut by a quarter basis point. They actually go in like tenths. So, yeah. I guess it's kind of crazy. He's scared to death to look at the in beige book. That's an awesome line, dude. That's an awesome line.
I know I'm the one who came up with it, so I'm biased, but you know, economically speaking, that's a bar. All right, dude. Well, get ready. Five more minutes. Wow. Chattonia, how do you feel, bro? How do you feel, dog? Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me? All right. Well, five minutes it'll come out.
Again, I don't think they're going to change much on the statement. And then the statement's not going to move you as much though. So unless there's like a little bit of a hawkish or dovish surprise. I don't think dovish will react as dovish because I mean look at where we are. Uh but I think hawkish will get you moving a little bit right off the jump.
But then even then most of it's going to be all of this is frontloaded to the uh to the call and what he says. scared to death to look at the beige book acappella. [ __ ] a wars. [ __ ] a Trump. F y'all if you doubt me. I'm a piece of intel stock. I say it proudly. Here, tell these people something the long term don't know about me.
Why did you do this? Why did you give us this idea? Barack Ravid retweet on SpaceX or about the uh the war. The blockade made the US in last 10 days the number one oil and LG exporter in the world, bigger than Saudi and everybody combined. The Trump admin would want to double down on the blockade. Am dizzle fizzle.
All right, Chattonia. About 2 minutes. I hope you guys are ready. Hi, this is the Fed and we hate you. What? This is their music. Here at the Fed, we want to make sure you don't ever keep up with the economy. That's why after printing trillions and trillions of dollars, we wanted to make sure the real estate market also went with it.
We know you fell behind. We know things are tough. That's why we made sure everybody on Wall Street can borrow for low while you pay 10% for a mortgage. There's a lot of challenges. It may not last forever, but we're sure it'll end. And even if we're wrong, you'll give me a job for another 8 years. Now, remember, we don't do anything out of political motivation.
We do this cuz we believe in our mission and our mandate. We want to make sure Americans all over have the right opportunity at us robbing their money. So, remember, I had this job for almost a decade, but we should blame everybody else. The bed. My name's Raphael Bastik. I might have insider traded, but they said I was innocent cuz it only gave off the appearance of insider trading.
That's a really big difference. A lot of people don't understand. It may have looked like I murdered the guy and he may have been dead, but that was just the appearance. I never got charged. Thank God for municipal bonds. My name's Fed Kugler. I just got the job and I day trade every [ __ ] day. Okay, they fired me, but I still got to blame Trump.
Bye. She resigned. We care about the integrity of this institution. We won't handle that. So remember, political independence is not what we do. Even though we were one of only four other Fed chairs in the history who have cut double for an election. 3.75 37. All right, it's out. Dude, that took a little longer.
So no. Where's my statement? Alrighty. Page not found. [ __ ] you. Uh, recent indicators. Oh my gosh, dude. So, it's a little dovish. Recent indicators expanded at a solid pace. Job gains remain low. Unemployment has little changed. Inflation is elevated and part of reflect. Okay, there you got energy price reference in the statement.
So, that probably right there is the biggest part of it. That's why you might get that little red candle. Uh, watch the dollar too. Like I said, uh but yeah, that's it. Otherwise, committee seeks maximum objective. Another one, developing the Middle East are attributing a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Uh oh, hot dog. Did they say that on the last one? Let's see. Yeah, they did. So, yeah, that one's the same. But that right there, so global energy prices, they've acknowledged it. That's a little bit hawkish, but the economic activity is dovish. So economic activity, again, jobs, none of that's changed, but I would expect a slightly more uh what's it called?
I'd expect a slightly more hawkish Powell as it comes to the to the oil and everything else. Fed hammock and Kashkari Logan voted against the easing bias. support. Who's the only denter? Steven Moran and Hammock. Wait, Neil Kashkari. Interesting. That's way more descent. That's weird. So, literally voting against action was Steven Moran.
who wanted a lower who wanted a rate cut. Beth Hammock, Kashkari, and Logan. They wanted the rates the same but did not support inclusion of a easing bias in the statement at this time. So that's what it is. The dual the both sides and the dual mandate they're interp that's the easing bias essentially.
No [ __ ] way. So that's a weird descent, dude. So you had dissents not on the policy, but the statement. I don't even I don't even remember the last time you've seen anything like that. But that again, that dual mandate, that's been the optionality that they've kept for a while. So 8 to4 vote technically if you look at the scoreboard of that.
They're considering extended timing. Real carefully adjust incoming data. You know all that. Move the economy towards two essential. Oh, nice. Nice. Fed. All right. Well, power in 30 minutes. Oh, I didn't mean to do that. Yeah. Moran wanted a rate cutter every time. So, do you see it? The biggest takeaway is that they mentioned global energy.
Last time they mentioned Middle East crisis that was again oil was at 100. This time they mentioned Middle East crisis again but then they actually they actually included the uh like a impact of global energy high global energy in the first line. So that's a little unique. And then again the there's four people who wanted it to be hawkish.
You guys understand that those other four people or three people who desented, they didn't want a rate cut, but they wanted the statement to read more hawkish. Oh, Nvidia and Intel. No, Intel doesn't go down. Not since that's what I'm saying. When was the last time they dissented on the statement? I can't recall.
All right. All right. Well, low ticker is picking up, but like I'm saying, you have what a third or a quarter of the Fed. They wanted it more hawkish. And then they are going to he Powell might talk differently about the war. Again, the statement reads global energy prices. Last time they just mentioned the Middle East briefly, but yeah, nothing else.
Three, to end easing bias. So, you got to think about that. That even applies to when Kevin Worsh gets in there because now you have people at least again. Yeah, it's about like a third I think they're a little more maybe. You have about a third of the Fed members want they don't want it to sound dovish and then [ __ ] Moron's like we should cut every meeting.
It does not matter what happens. [ __ ] I think there anything could happen. The world could end and he would want us to cut again. Mhm. Dollar extends gains. That's the one we wanted to see. That dollar didn't really move much. I don't see the premiums. How did those change? Not much really [snorts] if we talking plays.
in there like swimwear. All right. Well, yeah, you're still 30 second, 1 minute, 5 minute all came down end of the month. Well, yeah, and there's going to be more pension selling tomorrow. But yeah, that's why I've been saying end of the month you might get a little bit more fireworks, but again, it's all going to be uh based off of what happens with your boy.
Powell hasn't spoken yet, but the statement acknowledged the global energy prices. That's the biggest change. And then you have a weird disscent in terms of uh about a third of the Fed wants the statement to be more hawkish. That's going to be interesting. I really think that it's not that's not going to be uh that's not going to be the main point of it all.
But yeah, I would uh I would watch out for that. Powell going to Trump goes live if dude on his final one that would be so offensive. I don't know. That'd be Can't let him go out like that. I wonder if Pow if we're going to have to evict him or not. NXPI is still going. Where is uh Brent? Well, they're both up, but Brent is the dangerous one.
There's a feed. Are you Oh, you're not You're not making a joke. Shut up. Are you kidding me? That's such disrespect. Oh my gosh. [ __ ] dude. Yeah, dude. There's a White House feed up right now. Oh, dude. What the hell, dog? I don't want Dude, this is this What kind of [ __ ] parental custody battle is this?
I don't want to choose who I listen to on Powell Day, dog. What the [ __ ] dog? The White House has a feed up. Like, literally, they're going to go live with the [ __ ] astronauts. Oh, dude. Oh no. Yeah. Well, Powell supposed to come on in in about 20 minutes or so. Damn. On the last one, spies starting to dump.
Again, if there's any again inclusion of global energy prices as well as the uh the guys, you know, again, about a third of the Fed wants it to sound bearish, which I think is quite fascinating. So, let's see. No, bro. That's actually crazy. And what if what if Galabudi comes on live too? The Iranians.
Don't Don't you We're going to get in on this drama. I go live on Fars TV. Sign up to my Telegram. What the [ __ ] man? You guys don't get all of the publicity. What the [ __ ] There w there is there might be a me he might make a statement on asset values but he's not going to it shouldn't be that could be his bearishness like we're saying if he wants to acknowledge risk people will respond but there was some brief mention last time but didn't he kind of say he said something along the lines of like he thinks they're higher but uh I'm blanking on it but there was I I do remember there was a brief mention of it, but it wasn't it wasn't too market moving.
Crypto nuking. Oh yeah, crypto just took a big candle down. Crypto is probably the worst right now. Nine. But like I said, watch the dollar. The dollar should be the one that There you go. Dollar's gapping up now. SPY going down. We're still at 04 though. So still pretty small. We're just kind of drilling into the earlier low.
Is this it? That's it, man. His last one, bro. So sad. Worsh. Well, yeah. I mean, I think Worsh I think Powell is way smarter than Worsh, but I see. I don't know, though. I don't think Powell should stay on afterwards. So again, the only echoes there's like we're going back to like 1920, 1918, 1920, 1950 was like literally the last time a Fed governor, the Fed chair stayed on.
I mean, again, even Janet Yellen resigned for crying out loud. But yeah, that's going to be interesting. I don't I think he's going to try to dodge the worst questions, though. Uh he is going to uh he's going to it's an ongoing case, a hearing, so he's not going to say too much. She'll probably give general comments, but the real thing people care about is his uh policy.
Is this Persing Square? What did they What was their IPO price? We're getting Trump and Powell. I don't know. So, I don't know if you if you guys want to go to Christmas with your dad, you just I maybe I'll make another stream. If you want Christmas with Powell, you'll have to I don't know, bro. This is very confusing.
I'm probably going to listen to Powell, to be honest. I don't. This is my last POW. I've watched every single one. Sorry, Donald. But yeah, you know, I can't I can't miss the last POW. I've literally watched every single Powell for almost a decade. So, some of you got to watch them with me. Uh, you know, but like yeah, this is uh this has been the uh the one that that I it's sad to watch him go.
I like I said, I feel a little uh I feel a little sad about it, but you know, it is what it is. Mhm. No, they're not going to talk about rates again. That dissent is really weird. the four of them, three of them dissenting not to change rates but to drop a easing bias and then the Fed acknowledging that the whole dual mandate thing is part of the easing bias or the option the optionality.
I think that's odd. And then it kind of even it kind of highlights pressure against Worsh cuz now when was the last time they did that? I really think someone said 1992 but that that was very odd you know. Now you got homeboy where let's see but yeah it's actually crazy. Well all the currencies are moving again.
Dollar popped. Yeah, you're still doing the earnings reaction, but I do think again he said the the statement mentioned energy prices and the last one acknowledge Middle East as well, but this time you kind of got a further step in that process. No, it's not there. So before today's meeting, September 2020, Neil Qashgari and Robert Kaplan dissented against the statement despite agreeing with the zero floor.
They wanted a stronger commitment to keeping rates at zero until inflation exceeded 2%. While Kaplan wanted more flexibility and less restrictive forward guidance language, Kaplan was also day trading Netflix. PayPal. Oh, that has to be something. PayPal. Oh, you're going to get us some buyout [ __ ] dude.
Oh, they didn't give it to me. [ __ ] Those are going to hit. They didn't fill the first one. PayPal. That has to be an offer. One of those rumors again. It's literally 4%. PayPal. Those have already hit. All right. It's a couple hundred%. I haven't even put out a stream alert on that one. Oh yeah. All I made it free at 300%.
That hit. PayPal. I market ordered the second one after they wouldn't film my first one. I knew what they were going to [ __ ] do to me. But yeah, make them free if you already got that. That was a hit. They stayed there for a second. Trump has authorized returning astronauts to moon surface. Yeah, those are still up at least 200% on the bid.
All of those. The first ones would have killed it and spy a little bit. Well, what time is it? Trump on UFO. I don't have the Do you have the PayPal headline yet? Where is that? So much going on. We have Powell in 13 minutes. You have Trump on the files. CEO splits company into three segments amid takeover speculation.
Oh, that doesn't even sound that good. All right. Well, Trump is with Ukraine. To me, that would be more important because we've we've ga we're going to have that. Look, uh, we we're not going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon and we've knocked out their navy. We've knocked out their air force. We've knocked out their a couple more 300 apparatus.
Everything I like it, but I don't that doesn't sound as good. Very little. They have some missiles. That was a nice a small percentage. They have a small percentage of missile making premiums keeping facilities. We knocked out about 80% of them. The rest could come very quickly if we don't make a deal.
Good luck. uh they're not going to have a nuclear weapon. They know it and just about everybody else does. And so we talked about that a little bit. He doesn't want to see them have a nuclear weapon either. But I had a long talk with President Putin. I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire and I think he might do that.
He might announce something having to do with that. Did he announce it yet? No, but I I was wondering I was going to ask No, I asked him about even if it's a little ceasefire, there's so many people being killed. It's so ridiculous. Right. Thank you, Mr. President. Yeah. Just that splitting of Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act.
Do you want Republican states in the South to look at redraw uh drawing congressional districts before you have to tell me when did the ruling come out? I've been with the astronauts. I've been with contractors because we're trying to get the ballroom built. Yeah. Ahead of schedule. It's it's right on schedule.
It's ahead of schedule now. I want to keep it that way. And I was also with commissioning uh some people but one of you know David Warrington's son I don't you know David everybody knows David he's got this incredible son so he was just sworn in so we had other things tell me about the bro you had time locked in had time on that
create more Republican held congressional seats in the south again I missed the first that's why I had to marry because I knew what they were going to do rule on it is that right tell Tell me about the ruling. Well, I hope this is CNN fake news on your call with President Putn for the war in Ukraine.
Well, we talked about more about the war in Ukraine, but he would like to be of of help. I said, "Before you help me, I want to end your war." So, we had a good talk. I've known him a long time. I think he was ready to make a deal a while ago. I think some people made it difficult for him to make a deal, but we talked more about Ukraine.
But which war do you think ends first? Um, good question. That's an interesting question. You know, coming from you, it's very interesting. Which war ends first? I don't know. Maybe they're on a similar timetable. I think Ukraine militarily they're defeated. Okay. You wouldn't know that by reading the fake news, but militarily
Delta has extended land through November. Every ship is right now underwater. Typically, that's pretty good. What do you think, Jared? I mean, it's going to be hard for them to make a naval comeback. Okay. Now, they have an air force. Every one of their planes has been shot down or has been decimated.
They have missiles. About 82% are gone. And they have drones and most of them are gone. Most of the factories are mostly gone. And we have tremendous anti- drone equipment now between lasers and that new very special machine gun that knocks them out of the air like flies. And we use bullets instead of million dollar, you know, missiles to knock out a $30,000 drone.
So, I would say Jared would tell me that with everything you just heard, typically we're in pretty good shape. Uh, and in addition, their economy is crashing. their uh as you know their money their they go with their money they don't have a name for it their money is valueless they don't have a a name for it
they've got inflation that nobody's ever seen before other than that I think they're doing quite well if you read the New York Times you would say you'd say they're doing wonderfully because it's fake news or if you watch CNN I mean you cover it all the time you think they're doing well do you think they're doing well where they have no navy no air force no anti-aircraft apparatus other than what they may have put there.
They may have brought in some light stuff during the ceasefire and we know exactly where it is so it'll be knocked out within the first 15 minutes. Thank you very much. I want to go back to the Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act. I know you said you haven't seen it. When did it come out? Just now.
Um no, it came out this morning. Uh but basically very much narrows the Voting Rights Act. would be considered a win for win for Republicans. I love it. But my question, I got one feet up. Don't worry, we're going to be watching Powell. I'm not going to listen to Donald Trump. Some Republican governors have not responded in terms of what
I can't I'm watching my last Powell. Dude, even if I have to evict him, I don't care. Early voting begins Saturday there, for instance. Should they redraw the map in the next couple days? I would. I mean, it depends. I mean, some states don't need to redraw and some do. I mean, I know what the concept of the ruling.
I just haven't seen the result. Uh, yeah, I would say generally I would think that they would want to do it. Some some are greatly helped and some, you know, didn't make much difference. Yeah, I would say they would do that. They have time to do it. Yeah, please. Thank you, Mr. President. I want to ask you, there's a lot of uh drama on the House floor today.
several bills were stalled um and a rule took two hours to pass today and there's still some tension over the farm bill. Do you think that you need to get more involved legislatively on capital? Well, we want the farm bill. The Democrats don't uh we want uh we want security. Okay, we need security. We want security.
The Democrats don't think we need security. They actually do, but they have they suffer greatly from Trump derangement syndrome. uh like at levels that nobody's ever seen. They're sick people. There's something wrong with them. They don't want to pay anybody for security. They don't like ICE. They don't like border patrol people.
They don't like the people that keep us safe. You know, when they ran this, they let 25 million people into our country. And many of those people were from prisons. They were from mental institutions, drug dealers, murderers. 11,888 murderers, half of whom committed more than one. They more than one murder.
They they think that was fine. I happened to like law enforcement. They essentially want to defund law enforcement and I don't think the public's going to let them get away with it. You know, we got it all approved in the great big beautiful bill and they want to renegotiate. We don't like that. Mr.
President, the king's speech that he made to Congress. He spoke strongly forcefully about the necessity for the a strong NATO alliance. He also spoke about the necessity to continue to support Ukraine. Did his speech in any way change your thinking on either of those issues? Well, you have to understand my thinking is, I think, exactly correct, but I was very disappointed with the fact that when we called on them to give us a little hand.
We didn't need it. I actually did it just to see whether or not they'd be there. when we called on NATO to give us a hand with Ukraine and and in particular the most recent you know we we asked them to do certain things on Ukraine and we also wanted them to do things with Iran and on Ukraine they're very much involved but they didn't do things the way we would like to see it you know it's been going on for a long time and on Iran uh they weren't there as you know you know it better than anybody they weren't there uh The king is fantastic.
We spent a lot of time together. We had a lot of talk. We talked about this also and u he loves his country and he's a great king and he's a great friend of mine and I think if he were doing that if that were up to him he would have probably helped us with Iran he would have done he would have followed the suggestions we made with talking about that eloquent
because you know we have some disagreements on Ukraine. man. 5 minutes and uh not having to do with NATO so much as European countries, but uh they just went live on the podium on one of them. He you know, he's coming back tomorrow. We had an incredible evening last night and he's leaving tomorrow. He's going to come back and see us before he leaves.
And you know, but I think he's a phenomenal representative for his country. I think the people in the United Kingdom should be proud. I loved his speech yesterday. I watched it. I loved the speech last night. Um I don't know about my speech. I thought my speech was okay, too. But uh I thought he was I I think he's an unbelievable king.
And by the way, an unbelievable queen. They are a great couple. Great. You were this morning. James Comey was in court. He self-directed. He's now in charge a second time. This time it were a social media post with seashells that said 8647. Do you really think that he was endangering your life or threatening your life with that?
Well, if anybody knows anything about uh crime, they know 86. You know what 8? It's a mob term for kill him. You know, you ever see the movies? 86 the mobster says to one of his wonderful associates, 86. That means kill him. It's uh I think of it as a mob term. matter. People think of it as something having to do with disappearing.
But the mob uses that term to say when they want to kill somebody, they say 86, the son of a gun. I'm trying to keep the language nice and clear. They don't use that term son of a gun. They use another term. But that's a mob term for kill. Yeah. But do you really think your life is in danger? Probably.
I don't know. You know, based on probably what I'm Yeah. The people like Comey have created tremendous danger, I think, for politicians and others. He, you know, Comey is a dirty cop. He's a very dirty cop. Uh he cheated on the elections. He tried to help Hillary Clinton as you know. He dismissed a lot of things that he should have proceeded with.
He just came out. That's the only other podium I haveed with. No, he's a dirty cop. He's a crooked man. Yeah. Mr. President, you just described there's work day and data and charmer on support for Iran. Did your visit with the king smooth that over or create any interesting state? My visit with the king really was
excuse me software. It was extraordinary. I mean, he's an extraordinary man. He's an extraordinary person and yeah, it helps from the standpoint that you know when you like the king of a country so much, it probably helps uh your relationship with the prime minister. But you know in that case the prime minister I said do you want to send a little help?
He said no we'll send it after you win the war. I said that's not good. That's not good. What do you think of that Jared? Sending help after we win the war. I don't know some some I don't want to get you guys involved but I can imagine what you're thinking. The United Arab Emirates the UAE they pulled out of OP.
What do you think about that? I think it's great. I mean I think it's great. Look I know him very well. Muhammad and uh very smart and he probably Muhammad maybe wants to go his own way. That's a good thing I think for ultimately it's a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down.
They have it all. He's a great leader actually. So, no, I'm I'm okay. They're having some problems in OPEC. Kevin Worsh passed a hurdle today. The Senate uh confirmed his nomination to go to the Senate floor. He'll be on the Fed in in miday. Is it your expectation that he can persuade the other Fed governors to lower interest rates because I mean they should recently
because it's a good time to lower them. We're the most prime country anywhere in the world. We're right now having investments made in our country at a level that nobody's ever seen. No other country's ever seen it. Tens of billions of dollars are being invested. Factories, auto plants, AI. I mean, not just AI, cuz AI is new.
We're leading China by a lot in AI, as you know. I'm letting them build their own electric plants. They're building them. Otherwise, you could never do it. It was a concept that I came up with. I'm very proud of it. And by the way, they're building electric plants that people in the utility industry have never seen before.
They're saying, man, it's incredible. So they're building these massive buildings that cost billions of dollars and they're building their own electric plant. So they're not taken from a source or the old grid, you know, an old grid that wouldn't be able to do it. No, we're leading with everything. But
in the history of our beautiful world, there's never been a country that has so much money being invested in usually. It's 30 seconds and tremendous number of auto plants. By the way, the auto Canada, Mexico, uh, Japan, South Korea, Germany, they're all coming to the United States. And the reason is I have a very smart tariff policy.
You know, we got we were taken advantage of for years. We're being ripped off by other countries for years and those days are over. Yeah. Mr. President, how long are you prepared to maintain the blockade? Could that go several more months? Well, the blockade is genius. Okay. The blockade has been 100% foolproof.
No other telling you it's not anywhere that nobody's going to play games. We have the greatest military in the world and I built much of it during [ __ ] up the building and the greatest anywhere in the world. Nobody even close and he's just not coming out and you see that every whether it's Venezuela which and they have a good military in Venezuela but it was over in one 48 minutes.
We got one uh Good afternoon. Uh my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum taken this long for the benefits benefit of the American people. The US economy has been turn while job gains have remained low. The unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.
Inflation has moved up and is elevated in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook and we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient and business fixed investment has continued to expand at a brisk pace. Again, if you're not on the lock, you have a delay.
Activity in the housing sector has remained that on Powell Day, if you weren't already in the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.3% in March and has changed little in recent months. Job gains have remained low. A good part of the slowing and the pace of the job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in March, boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.2% over the 12 months ending in March. This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil prices.
Most measures of longerterm expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3 and a half to 3 and 3/4%.
The economic outlook remains highly uncertain and the conflict in the Middle East has added to this uncertainty. In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. Beyond that, the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future course of the conflict itself.
We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. Monetary policy is not on a preset course and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.
This is my last press conference as chair and I will close with a few thoughts. First, I want to congratulate Kevin Walsh on his ad advancement out of the Senate Banking Committee this morning. This is an important step forward and I wish him well as that process continues. The Federal Reserve exists for one fundamental purpose to foster the economic conditions in which American families and businesses can thrive.
Stable prices, a strong job market, and a financial system they can depend on. Every decision we make, whether about interest rates or regulatory and supervisory matters or other issues, is made in service of that purpose. This is sad. Our decisions reflect the collective judgment of the board of governors and the federal open market committee.
Colleagues who demonstrate analytical rigor, principled judgment, and a genuine commitment to the public interest. Our collaborative and deliberative process has long reflected a shared commitment to finding common ground in service to our mission. This institution is resilient, capable, and staffed by professionals of extraordinary talent and exceptional dedication.
It has been a privilege to serve alongside so many great public servants at the board of governors and around the Federal Reserve system. The Fed's work is only as effective as the public's understanding of it. And you, the press, are essential to keeping the public informed about we about what we do and why.
The people we serve, benefit from your careful reporting. I welcomed the announcement last [clears throat] Friday by the US attorney for the District of Columbia that she had closed the criminal investigation. She also noted, however, that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation. Over the weekend, the Department of Justice provided assurances that they will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral from the Fed's inspector general.
And absent such a referral, if they do appeal the recent court decision, they would not seek as part of that to restart the investigation or send new subpoenas. I've [clears throat] said that I will not leave the board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality and I stand by that.
I'm encouraged by recent developments and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully. Yeah, he's not [ __ ] leaving. My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution [screaming] and the people we serve. After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time
to be determined. I plan to keep a low profile as a governor. There's only ever one chair [clears throat] of the Federal Reserve. Why are you doing this? When Kevin Worsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair. Once sworn in as board chair, his new colleagues will elect him to chair the FOMC as well.
You just look like a old boomer who don't want to leave. As I regularly point out from this podium, our success in delivering our goals matters for all Americans. I'm confident that the Fed will continue to do its workity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people. Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
Yeah, you got to evict him now. That's [clears throat] crazy. I mean technically Trump can share appreciate the kind words about the press often doesn't come from the podium in different places but appreciate that. Um can you talk about what is gone into your decision to remain on the board. What kind of criteria are you weighing and uh how long might you stay?
Thank you. Sure. So you know my my concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors. And I I want to note here this has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism by elected officials. Uh I I've never suggested that such ver verbal criticism is a problem and neither has anyone else here.
But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 13year history and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions. I I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.
It is so important for our economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend over time on a central bank that operates that way free of political influence. It's part of the absolute foundation of this amazing economy that we have. It's just one of the many reasons why the US economy is the envi envy of the world.
That piece of institutional architecture separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries. It is extremely important not for the people who work at the Fed at any given time, but for the people that we serve, that the Fed remain able to conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn't get pulled into politics trying to help or hurt any particular politician or political party.
It's critical for the people that we serve. In terms of when I would leave, I I will leave when I when I think it's appropriate to do so. Was that all your questions or was that Well, I just have a followup which is what would you say to the criticism that by remaining [clears throat] on the board, you're actually taking a political act and denying
uh President Trump the majority of the board, which as president he would have if he left. I I don't see that at all. As I mentioned, uh you know, I'm literally staying because of the actions that have been taken. I I had long planned to be retiring. Uh and uh you know the things that have happened in really in the last 3 months have have I think left me no choice but to stay until till I see them through at least that long.
Um you know in addition uh I don't see how this will interfere. I'm my intention is not to interfere. You know, I was a governor for almost six years, and the tradition is at the Fed that governors uh who understand how difficult the role of chair is, and as a as a soontobe former chair, I do understand how hard it is to get consensus with 19 strong-minded people, you work with the chair.
You you try to you try to uh be heard, but also collaborate with the chair and try to support the chair when you can. When you can't, you can't. And I think that's the attitude that people generally take. And that's the attitude that I'll take. Uh Nick, J Pal, if I could ask about the inflation outlook
in March, you should the standard practice of looking through energy shocks as conditional on inflation expectations anchored since there has been very little progress reopening energy trade corridors. Can you help us understand how the inflation outlook has changed in the intermitting period beginning with the prospects for tariff pass through resolving on the timeline that you had outlined in March before getting to the energy shock that is now on top?
So, you know, I would look at it this way. bring up. Um, for a long time, we've been working on on the hypothesis really that tariff uh tariffs would would lead to a one-time price increase and that that would go away over time. In other words, that there would be no further change. So, measured inflation wouldn't reflect that higher level going up more and more.
And it's time for that to happen. You know, we really do expect that to be happening in the next two quarters. So we'll be watching very carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen that's the kind of critical part of the forecast. We we need to really see that with with energy it's it's so hard to say um I I mentioned you know in you know sort of the textbook you you would look through an oil shock because they tend to be shortlived and they tend to revert and monetary policy works with long and variable lags.
So you you know you wouldn't necessarily re react right away. I think that is all the more true given that we're several years above 2% inflation and that we're already looking through the tariff shock. So I think we're going to be very cautious about that. It's but the the question about about looking through energy really is not not in front of us right now.
We it hasn't even peaked yet and I think we'd want to see the backside of that and progress on tariffs before we even thought about uh about reducing rates. So, if I could follow [clears throat] up, the the statement today preserves language that has taken on some meaning uh as it was socialized when the committee was actively lowering rates.
Why is that easing bias still uh ripe [clears throat] given how different the inflation outlook is now versus a meeting or two ago? And what more would have to happen for it to get evicted? So um that was uh as you will recall we we had a discussion about that at the last meeting and we talked about it in in the press conference after the March meeting.
We had the same today. We had quite a vigorous discussion about that that very issue and the guidance and is it still appropriate and that kind of thing. And I would say that the you know number of people on the committee who either could support that ch language change changing to a more neutral stance so that a hike is as likely as as a cut.
that number has increased over the intermediate is as likely as I mean it's it's a it's it's a good question right you see inflation has moved up over the interim a bit remember I told you if that question came up and he said no just a little bit in the wrong direction and we we know that the odds of that came up you know that there's
uh headline inflation coming out of the Gulf and we don't know how much that will be just we're going to need to see so it makes all the sense in the world that people look at that and we have a vigorous discussion about that you saw that three people desented over the language. I think all of those people agreed with the with the rate decision.
Um so the majority of the committee did not slightly hawkish I don't think it was black swan hawkish but we need to do it at this meeting. It really was just a question likely they should do so much to learn. There's so much uncertainty about the path. doesn't need to be any rush to make that decision now because
you know what what happens in the next 30 60 days even by the next meeting could really change the picture around that around that language. So, you know, it was a it was a it's a close it's it's a much closer thing on the committee than it was in March. And you know, that makes all the sense in the world.
It seems to me it's a very big change from last month. Claire, that was Flightly Hog. So, Claire Jones, Financial Times. Um, just just going back to this issue of the the easing bias. Um, we've now got oil approaching $120 a barrel when it comes to the benchmark. um Brent crude. Um if it stays around those levels six weeks from now, what would be your guess best guess as to whether the easing bias will still be in the statement?
Thank you. I I wouldn't want to guess, you know, well, first of all, we're going to have new leadership in all likelihood by then and and new leadership is going to have a very important role to play in that. So, uh I won't be standing here this podium to answer your question. So, um I don't know. As I mentioned, that's all I can really say is that we had we had a great discussion about that today.
It's a you know, it's got it's gotten to be a better question than the interim period. We had the discussion a majority are still on the page of of not feeling the need to move to that level and I I that's where I am. Uh I I get it though, you know, at a certain point you would move and that that conceivably could come as soon as the next meeting.
Thank you. Just to follow on um your leadership also seem rather lukewarm on press conferences and on the dot plots. What would your advice to him be on these communication tools? So I'm I'm not going to give him any advice through you today here, but I've you know uh I I think communications generally is uh I think every incoming chair takes a look at communications and it's a very healthy thing.
I mean communications is it's very complex and uh you know you can always be uh be looking at new things and and if that happens feels like it's going to happen that's completely appropriate thing you say you also acknowledge you could cut hi chair pal with taxio can you tell us if you've been uh in touch with with incoming chairman Borch uh any uh to what extent is this a normal transition process versus all the things swirling around uh something unusual and and what can we expect when when he takes uh takes that podium in a few weeks?
I I haven't seen him since uh seeing him at a dinner in January where I congratulated him and had a nice nice chat with him. Haven't seen him. I don't know what a normal process is. You know, the last process was with Janet Yellen with whom I had worked for six years and so it was, you know, we were sitting down the hall from each other.
So, it was a very different thing. I think I think this is and will be a very normal standard kind of a kind of a transition process. So, that's that's what I expect. I have every reason to think it will be. Quick followup. Is the Supreme Court ruling on Governor Cook a factor in when you may leave as a governor?
I wasn't thinking of it as such, but no, not really. I mean, I'm thinking more the other things I mentioned. Trump will, but you can't fire a Fed person without cause. Hi, uh, thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask a question about your tenure and Chris Rugver at Associated Press. Um during your tenure as chair, you often spoke about how disadvantaged Americans benefited from extended periods of low unemployment.
Uh and the new framework the Fed adopted in 2020, some economists say elevated the Fed's employment mandate. Uh are you worried that the the pandemic inflation spike that followed will make future Fed chairs more reluctant to pursue a hot jobs market and should they be? Um I don't know the answer to that.
I mean what we so what we experienced um in in uh the in the teens the mid- teens was uh really low low levels of unemployment for a long period of time and no reaction from inflation and we all took very much took notice of that. We also noticed that the biggest wage gains were going to people at the bottom end of the income spectrum.
And we had many many reports of uh I mean it felt like a fairly stable equilibrium and a lot of benefits were flowing to people at the bottom end of the uh income spectrum including companies were you know setting up in um and you know people who were confined and and like training them before they got out and it was it was a very healthy sort of set of societal dynamics.
So of course I think anybody would love to get back to that. Um I I don't think that anything that happened to create the the global pandemic inflation was in any any way related to overweighting the employment market. I mean it was it was a global shock that happened essentially very very similarly all over the world that had to do with closing reopening stimulus and all that.
And I mean you could you could look at a graph of 10 big economies on the page and not know which was the US and which was Germany, France and things like that. So I don't think that that that insight was in any way responsible for the high inflation that we experienced. So I mean I think it's always been a balance.
Uh uh you you've got to you've got to be strong on both of our dual mandates and we we just for example now we we don't feel that the uh labor market is at all a source of inflation. So we don't need to be worrying about that stop him from getting during during the pandemic recovery the labor why you guys are assuming that
super overheated and tight and that's when we had the governor that's a different topic but they could reopen the case whenever they want are you would you need more department or what else the last chair that did this was post world over with finality another blatant big violation for that once again by appropriate to do so.
Again, I love the guy, but it's hard to deny that. Michael McKe from Bloomberg television and radio. I'd like to ask you if you could explain a little more or characterize a little more the discussion about the two-sided view and interest rates because there were some members of the open market committee who've been suggesting that we may need to raise interest rates even absent the war because inflation was not coming down fast enough.
Uh is there any sense that interest rates might have to go up or was this just a setup to sort of uh warn people that you're worried about the war impacts? So nobody the three dissenters and and others who could have supported that and others who were you know who were voters and prefer non- voters who preferred it
they all supported the right decision right so people are not saying we need to hike now it's more a question of you know don't we kind of feel that we should be neutral markets what are markets doing people argue that's this is consistent what markets are doing and again it's a it's a very fair question but you know these these changes is there is you know it's a form of forward guidance and you want to make you don't want to make them you want to make them in a way that that will be sustained and continue to make sense and not something you need to take back uh you know fairly quickly.
So I I think we just a group of us including me didn't feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that that that markets are not confused about our reaction function. We don't have a problem to solve on that. But the other side of the argument is a good argument too as I as I mentioned. It's a perfectly good argument to be having good discussion to be having.
So and it came out the way it came out. Well, you've got uh three descents [clears throat] uh in favor of uh two-sided uh warning. Uh you've got yourself staying on the board. You've got the criticism that does come from elected officials uh and you've got a lot of uh critics who have faulted the Fed for being too slow 2021 with inflation.
Are you worried about Fed credibility under all of this? Is that one reason that you want to stay on? Not not driving my my thinking now. I mean monetary policy is going to get made by you know 19 people. There's a lot of stability there. Uh, I mean, if you think about it, any every new Fed Fed chair has the same situation, which is you've got 18 colleagues on the FOMC, 11 of them vote during any year, and you have to your job is to create consensus is it's to talk to them, understand them, you know, be inside their thinking and be able to pull them together and and get consensus and move.
And that's that's what every Fed chair has to do. And I I think Kevin Wars is actually quite well. He has the capabilities, skills to be to be very good at that, I would think. So I think I I'm not so worried about that process, you know. Uh I think that'll that'll work itself out. [clears throat] Howard,
uh thank you, Chair Howard Schneider with Reuters. You you mentioned that uh staying on as a governor, you intend to keep a low profile. I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more detail on what that looks like and how you can touch Touche um what that Yeah. walk down the steps uh what that looks like and particularly around the policy discussion how you're able to uh to have your intervention and not be a shadowed chair and not have kind of an outsized influence over the process.
Yeah. You know, that's just something I would never do. You know, the shadow chair thing. know, you know, it's it's I I don't know what the exact specifics of it will be, but I'm going back to being a governor. I respect the role of chair. I, you know, I was a chair. I was a governor for six years, and I know what that's like.
I know and I I had a, you know, pretty front row seat with particularly with with Chair Yellen to whom I I was close when I when I I was worked with Chairman Bernani for two years, but um you know, I I I was brand new at that time. So I got a sense of what it was and I had real sympathy for how hard it is to get that group to consensus and I always felt like I you know I don't want to add to that unnecessarily and that means try to support the chairs where the chair the direction the chair wants to go in if you can.
If you can't you can't but and I think that's that's the way it's always worked there because the chair only has one vote plus the ability to develop consensus and if people won't be you know they they won't if they're not flexible at all then how do you ever do that? And so that's why the chair has the authority the chair has really is to develop relationships with people and work with them and then and then put something forward that has consensus.
And I you know I I prop I propose to be a very constructive participant in that process really out of respect for for the office of the chair. And uh in your view as a a soontobe governor, how do you see the risks of oil prices bleeding into core inflation in coming weeks? because that was it seems like the commentary that was coming from particularly some of the reserve bank presidents they were elevated concerns about the bleed into core and you know here we are with three descents now what do you see as the prospect of of of a core inflation
you know they're those prospects are real remember though our are um and they're real and the real thing is we're going to have to wait and see we're going to need to see and the good news is we think our policy stance is just is in a very good place for us to wait and see we you know we're right kind of at the high end of neutral or perhaps mildly restrictive.
U the labor market shows more and more signs of stability whereas inflation is kind of misbehaving and so maybe a little bit of uh of restriction or the high end of neutral is just the right place to be. So we can wait here and see uh and see how things work out before we act and we'll see how much that you know how much does come through into core.
You see it already in air airfares of course but you may see it in many other places. Uh you know uh we just don't know yet and it's it's so unknowable because how how long will the straight be closed? You can develop any number of scenarios that you want but we really won't know till we know. So fortunately we're in a good place to to wait and let things develop.
Thank you. Uh thanks Mr. Chairman. um you started holding post uh post meeting press conferences for every meeting as opposed to the ones with just with Can you talk about why you see that as a net positive? So we um we always said when we were doing quarterly press conferences we always said we can move at any meeting but we only ever moved at the quarterly SCP meetings where we had the press conference.
So if you think about it, you know, we during the pandemic, we were moving like a lot at every meeting and sometimes between meetings and and doing that with our press conference, I think would have been quite challenging. It's become the industry norm. It's the standard. I don't know whether that has to remain that way.
I don't know. I mean I it's it's just something people have become used to and I I do think it's quite helpful to you know to respond to I try to deliver a message on behalf of the committee if you think rather than 18 people 18 other people going out and delivering their message and it's you know it's going to be all over the place because we do thankfully have
widely disperate views. Um okay thanks. [clears throat] The other thing I wanted to ask about was the communications review from last year. Um uh could you describe the debate last year? what changes were considered, what you wanted, and what prevented action um any action uh on the on on those changes.
So, I'm not going to go into the the real small specifics, but what we found very quickly was that um making making changes making really large changes, for example, to the DOT plot or the SCP um it didn't have we couldn't come up with anything that had really broad support on the committee and and so we just moved on.
We didn't we we didn't really do as much on on that as we might have and uh you know I was never the world's biggest fan of the dot plot but you you can't can't beat something with nothing and you know there's a that we've looked at a bunch of things no you know it's something like I said I think every new chair is going to look at our suite of communications and and think about what would be changes we we are the only major central bank that doesn't publish a forecast and that's because we have a 19 person committee and you know you try to do it you try to do that on the at the board that's hard at the at the committee that's hard uh it's hard if you do it at the staff so it's you know it's been it works I think our communications are fine but looking at doing it in a different and better way is the most natural thing in the world
thank you um Colby Smith with the New York Times if I could follow up on Mike's question about hikes are we right to assume assume that the hawkish outcome for the Fed is still one in which the committee just extends the pause in rate cuts. And to what extent is there a growing sense within the committee that monetary policy really isn't just restrictive at all right now?
Um the economy is holding up relatively well despite this major energy shock. The unemployment rate has ticked lower. Inflation was moving sideways even before the war and is now moving higher. Um so so where is the committee at on that debate? you know, where we're at is we think our pol really we think our policy rate is in a good place.
Um, if we need to hike, we will we will certainly signal that and we will and we will certainly do it. And if we need to to cut, then if it's appropriate to cut, then we'll we'll signal the opposite. I think we because we feel like we're we're in a good place to move in either direction. Um, nobody's calling for a hike right now.
Um so it really is going to depend on how things how things evolve. Uh and you know that that's really where it is and as I mentioned clo you know much closer question this cycle on changing the guidance but but ultimately we didn't and as it relates to the war at what point [clears throat] do you think the risk to growth will be larger than the risk to inflation as this conflict drags on?
You know you just have to find that out empirically. you know, with given our um the fact that we're, you know, a big export of energy and that our economy is far less energy intensive, oil intensive than it was during the 70s. Um, you know, the the effects on the United States are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or or Asia who are feeling much greater effects from from these things.
the effects we're feeling in, you know, in the current situation currently and in in sort of what's priced in which is, you know, a relatively quick outcome. If if this goes on for much longer and prices go much higher, then we'll feel that much more. And of course, [clears throat] I'm talking about aggregate inflation numbers.
We know, we're very well aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over the country now, and that hurts [clears throat] that and these are those those hikes may continue to happen. and other other things are going to start to reflect air airline fairs I mentioned and and other other products and services that are dependent upon petroleum and derivatives of petroleum people are going to start to feel that
Edward thank you thank you [clears throat] chair Edward Lawrence with uh Fox Business so I guess I'll just ask you directly on this the markets don't see a rate cut at all this year is what they're predicting do you think that we are at the neutral rate why or why you know, the the neutral rate is a we cannot know it with uh with certainty.
I think pretty close to the neutral rate. Yeah. I I always had it, you know, between 3 and 4%. We're a little north of 3 and a half. So, that's well in the range of what I would consider a reasonable reasonable, but at the higher end of the range of what I would consider reasonable neutral rate. Um, you know, I think you're the labor market is still probably cooling off just a little bit.
Um, and I I don't think there's a much of a case for any case really for the for uh policy looking, you know, meaningfully restrictive, maybe mildly restrictive or neutral, I would say. Um, and I want to follow up on some of the other questions about [clears throat] uh your future a little bit. The the first time we've seen four descents now since October of 1992, are you handing off a divided Fed?
You know, the thing to remember [clears throat] is uh uh we have always had vigorous debates and and uh they're excellent debates. I have to say they're they've been really good. Uh and we're in an unusually difficult situation. So we we've really had four supply shocks. You actually you can say more than four, but at a minimum we we had the pandemic.
We had about of Ukraine. we had tariffs and now we have Iran and the oil um you know the oil spike. So those every every supply shock has the capability of right driving inflation up and unemployment up and I wanted to go out the central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do. So the right thing to do is to try to balance the achievement of those two goals and that's what our framework calls for us to do.
But these are really tough difficult judgments. You've got to have a forecast for each variable. You've got to think how long it's going to take to get back to target. You got to think how how restrictive or not is policy. So, it's only natural that you have a range of views on the committee. You know, people are going to see it different ways.
They're going to have different risk tolerances and that kind of thing. I mean, if everybody agreed, that would be that would be surprising. And I I think it's only it's partly a function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five, six years. Thank you so much, Chair Powell.
Selena Wayne with ABC News. Are you confident that Kevin Worsh will stand up to political pressure from President Trump? So, he he testified very strongly to that effect in his hearing and and I'll take him at his word. Okay. And when it comes to gas, right now it's over $4 a gallon. Inflation just hit a 2-year high.
Should Americans expect to be paying higher gas prices for the rest of this year? And in your view, does that take a rate cut off of the table? And secondly, by staying on as uh Fed governor, what message do you think you're sending to the president? I I don't know what gas prices are going to do for the rest of the year.
And um it will depend on how long the straight remains closed and how quick quickly it can be reopened and that kind of thing. But remember, when gas prices go up, um that's disposable income coming out of people's pockets. So they're going to spend less on other things. So there will be a hit to GDP.
So it's a you know it's a it's a question whether spending you know goes down uh to offset the inflationary effects. So it's not the answer isn't obvious uh exanti whether you whether you should move your rate o over because of that. We'll have to see how it evolves. And the message it sends to President Trump by staying on.
I'll stand on what I said earlier. [clears throat] Uh, Victoria. Hi, Victoria Aguido with Politico. Um, during your tenure, Fed independence has come under pressure in a lot of different ways. And I was just wondering, practically speaking, where do you see Fed independence as coming from? Is it the law?
Is it political support from Congress? Is it the actions of the Fed? What what sustains Fed independence? Well, it's, you know, it's it's to to a significant extent, it is the law. And you know, we've had to go to court to successfully so far to defend it. But you know, the the law does create a setting in which the Fed can and is directed to uh make monetary policy without consideration of political factors.
And so so part of it is law, but but it goes beyond that though. There's a set of customs. There's there's a boundary line between the Fed and the administration, between the Fed and the Treasury Department, and we need to respect those continue to respect those boundaries about what the Fed is responsible for and what the Treasury is responsible for
and what the rest of the administration's respons responsible. So, some some of it is legal. Um, in fact, it's all legal at the end of the day. But there it's it's more than just monetary policy. We, you know, we don't we don't want to use our tools to we haven't wanted to use our tools to achieve goals that are really clearly outside our mandate.
Every administration looks at our tools and thinks that would be good to repurpose those to serve other purposes, but that gets drag that's dragging us into politics and into fiscal policy. So, we've resisted that. Well, and maybe another way of asking it too is do you think that Fed independence is as strong now as when you became chair?
And if so, why? Look, I think it's at risk. I mean, I think these these, you know, these legal assaults, if you will, as I mentioned, you know, we're the institution is being battered over these things. We're having to resort to, you know, the courts to to enforce our legal, you know, in not even it's not so much independence.
It's it's really the ability to do monetary to make monetary policy without political considerations. That's what we're talking about. And uh we've had to do that and we've been successful so far. But that's not over. None of that has concluded yet. And it's, you know, it's really important. It's not about it's not about people who work at the Fed or the institution.
It's about the benefits of a central bank that makes decisions based on analysis and our best thinking. Uh rather than, you know, trying to help or hurt politicians. It's, you know, that there's there's a bright line between central banks who do one and do the other and successful countries have uniformly successful advanced economy countries have a really strong set of protections around their central bank just for that reason.
So that's what it's all about. I you know I I think I am confident as I said in my remarks that the Fed will continue to make its decision based on analysis, rigorous analysis and not on political considerations. But we've had to fight for it. And I I' you know, I'd like to think that, you know, I'd like to think we can get out of that era and go back to respecting, you know, what the law says and what custom has been, which is to, you know, let the Fed do our thing.
We're, you know, we're we're not we're it's a it's an institution full of human beings who work super hard to get things right for the benefit of the public. We're all human. don't expect for perfection, but do expect us to make, you know, decisions without political considerations and and the very best analysis we can bring.
Katarina, [clears throat] Katarina Sariva, Bloomberg News. Um, how would you characterize um what you've heard from your colleagues on your decision to stay? Um, do you have their support? And then have you heard concern from your colleagues um about continued legal attacks from um the executive branch?
Is this something that others have you know talked to resigned? So I think that um yeah I think that's report my colleagues think they can they can speak for themselves but you know yeah there are concerns that these things may continue that's talk about oil at one you know and that would be a problem and um
listen it is so [clears throat] um and then I just also wanted to ask about um Governor Waller's speech on the reserve banks um what you know do you have any thoughts on on central izing some of those functions in the way he described. And then um have you know do are you concerned that something like that could potentially be a slippery slope to um you know to consolidate reserve bank functions even more in such a way where you you know the central bank ultimately loses some of that important regional information.
Not stepping down. It's not I mean Powell's done worse but we try to be good stewards of the public's money and efficient and Chris in particular Chris Waller is particularly passionate about last time this happened was so the reserve so are the presidents and it's a question of how do you accomplish it uh we talk about it after I'm sure
and Chris said this in his speech we you know we want 12 strong independent central banks with their own staffs and their own monetary policy views and all that but you know there are things that are done in all 12 which could well be done at one much more efficiently and with cost savings. And so there's a back and forth going on on that, but everybody everybody's on the same page.
The other thing he touched on was was uh the idea of removing Reserve Bank presidents from office over different views on monetary policy. And I would I would just agree with him so strongly that that would be the beginning of the end of of the Fed's ability to to make monetary policy independently.
If every administration could come in and do that, you're you're just another cabinet agency at that point. So that's not something that I would support. Chris said the same thing. Christine, thanks Chair Pal. Christine Romans, NBC News. I want to ask about legacy. When the history books are written, how do you think your stewardship at the Fed will be remembered for the past eight years?
You know, I'm gonna just say that uh that's for that's for someone else to say. I'll give you a mulligan on that. All right. I'm going to ask you about uh misbehaving inflation then. You talked about those four big shocks, supply shocks over the past 5 years and in inflation still misbehaving. What's your message to American families who feel like inflation has not been under control for them really since since the co reopening?
You know, we're we're committed to bring inflation back down to 2% and and sustainably. That's that's our goal and we will we'll stick at it until that happens. We keep getting these events keep happening which keep driving up costs and you know the best thing we can do is to use our tools to guide inflation back down to 2%.
I think trying to get there really quickly could be very costly in terms of of uh of job loss and things like that, but we try to get there over time in a way that does the least damage possible. And you know, our commitment to that is never ending and unshakable. How would you describe the economy outside of the misbehaving inflation?
I mean, um it's still awfully resilient given all of the blows. I don't know that you can be awfully resilient. So it's actually quite resilient I would say because it's a positive thing if I can if I can have that amendment. Yeah, that the you know growth is really solid across our economy. Some of that is um that consumer spending is hanging in pretty well.
The the most recent data are good and some of it is just the apparently insatiable demand for data centers all over the United States. So a lot of uh business investment going into building data centers and every reason to think that that continues. So you've got an economy that's growing at 2% or better.
PDFP, which is private domestic final purchases, that which is really a better signal of of uh of a momentum in the economy, actually higher than that. So, you know, that's a positive thing. If you look at the unemployment rates, it's 4.3%. So that's a low rate. That's pretty close to mainstream estimates of the natural rate.
We've been there for a long time. So, it's it's it doesn't feel like a good labor market to some who who don't have jobs because quits are really low, hires are really low, and there's effectively no new net job creation. It's trying to catch up. You know, in a sense, the labor market is in balance, but it's an unusual and uncomfortable kind of a balance where people who don't have jobs will have a hard time breaking in unless somebody quits their job.
So, Oh, yeah. Pretty good. You know, inflation is the thing we need to work on and it's hard for someone to think that that inflation should subside over the course of this year because it's kind of a one time increase. It shouldn't be repeated and that should start happening pretty soon. The energy inflation that we're getting should go through fairly quickly.
Uh and we'll we'll just have to see how that works out. In the meantime, you know, we think our policy stance is in a good place for us to hold and and wait developments. Talking boo. Jennifer, say that to you with a straight face. Thank you, Chair Pal. Jennifer Shawnberger with Yahoo Finance. At the risk of beating the dead horse here, clearly three members objected to keeping that easing bias in the statement.
[clears throat] And you said that the majority still didn't need still didn't need to uh move to new language at this point. So, does the majority of the committee still have a bias towards cuts at this point or has the bias on the committee shifted away from cuts towards holding or hikes if that was needed?
I so I think that you know the the center is moving toward a more neutral place and that's sort of what markets are saying too. I just think, you know, uh there's a lot of signaling going on when you change guidance like that. And so we we just I guess the major a majority of us didn't feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now.
Uh and but maybe it'll come to that. And and the reason is because, you know, we're kind of waiting to see what happens with with events in the Middle East and what are the implications of those events for the US economy. So there was just a there's a group who feels like we don't need to be in a hurry to do that.
We we get it and of course we will move to a hiking bias if we want to hike and we'll move to a new a neutral bias before that. But there was a difference over whether to do it at this meeting at a at a meeting at which all but one of us agreed that that that the rate decision was correct which was not to move.
And you just said moments ago that you believe Fed independence is at risk. Is it safe to say that you want to stay on as a governor to serve as a check and balance on that? I I want to stay until I I will stay until it's I feel it's appropriate for me to leave. And and yes, that is that is really what is driving this.
Uh I'm not uh I'm not looking to be, you know, a high-profile uh dissident or anything like that. I I'm I'm more looking at the other aspects of this and wanting to see that things have calmed down and and returning to a traditional model of working with the people that you have and bringing to consensus and respecting that consensus.
That's what that's what any of you are ever confused why the market doesn't respond to oil. I mean look, nobody gives a [ __ ] I mean, let's be real care about Matt Eaggan with CNN. Uh you've made many tough decisions in your time at the Fed and as your time as chair comes to a close and you think about your tenure and perhaps your legacy, are there any decisions that stand out as ones that you're particularly proud of?
And are there any that with the benefit of hindsight you would take a mulligan on? Yeah, I I it's hard I wouldn't want to signal single out individual things at this point. You know, I'll just say uh you know, we all of us together have consistently tried to do what we think is best for the American people based on our tools and our objectives that that Congress has given us.
It's been very challenging because we've been in a situation of supply shock supply shocks really for six years and that's just a very different situation than for a very long time what the Fed and other central banks were doing all the time was demand management and you know and there was always the inflation mandate but inflation was low for 25 years.
So this is a very different world and a much more challenging one where you have to balance the two objectives. And by the way, central banks that have a an inflation mandate have to do exactly the same thing because they're balancing economic activity. So that's been challenging and you know we've tried to do our very best through these really challenging uh times and I'm really proud of of uh the work that I've done that my that my colleagues and I have done during these uh these years.
Now, to follow up on some of the the discussion around Fed independence, can you explain to the publication why this notion of Fed independence, which might sound kind of wonky to some is so critical? I mean, what are the consequences if either the Supreme Court rules against Lisa Cook or the Fed in the future decides to make decisions more around the political calendar instead of the economic data?
though every major advanced economy in the world has made the same decision the United States has made and that is that they want to take the making of monetary policy the setting of interest rates to support the economy to achieve maximum employment and price stability. They want to take that out of the direct control of elected politicians and the reason is elected politicians are always running for election and they'll always want low rates and that will re lead to inflation over time.
So after you know literally centuries of experience with that the whole world moved to the different model and it's it's worked great. I mean this is this is the era in which inflation was under control for 40 years. Then we had the pandemic inflation everywhere on in the world and now we have inflation that had gone pretty much all the way back to target really close to all the way back to target and now is being buffeted by the energy shock and the US buffeted by the by the tariff shock as well.
So but what I would say to the general public is that's that's the backstory is that um it don't think of about an institution being independent. Think about it this way that you want people to make monetary policy and set interest rates to benefit the general public and try to achieve economic goals which are maximum employment and price stability and focus only on that and ignore political considerations completely ignore them.
It's this isn't bipartisan. This is nonpartisan. So we we we want to just we just work directly for the American people doing these things. We don't think, "Oh, this I want to do this because the president says it's a good idea or because there's an election coming up and I want to I want to speed up or slow down the economy." I mean, that think about that.
If if that's if that that's what we were doing, we'd have no credibility. Markets would lose faith in us and our ability to control inflation and and have any respect would be, you know, would be gone. And let me say, whatever people say, the markets believe in that we will produce 2% inflation. If you look at longer run expectations, markets believe that they there's there's no sense in which our credibility in the markets has weakened.
It's just not the case. It's it's people do get it that this is our commitment and that we will achieve it and it's priced in. If you disagree with that, then you can go ahead and bet against the markets, but the markets are pricing in Fed credibility. Okay. Well, Richard, thank you, Chair Pal. Uh Richard Escobido with CBS News.
Uh we've talked a lot about gasoline prices and and even you mentioned airline ticket prices, both of which are up dramatically because of the war in Iran. And so I wonder are you seeing that weigh down consumer spending in other parts of the economy? Um and if so, how worried are you that that will be a drag on growth?
You don't see you don't see it in spending yet. You really don't. I mean, as one of your colleagues said, the economy has been resilient. It really has. Not just this time, but it's been remarkably resilient for some years now. The US economy has just powered through shock after shock. And consumers are still spending.
And that's what that's what the banks will tell you, credit card companies will tell you, the retail sales numbers that we got most recently. People are still spending. And um you know, how long can that go on in a world where if gas prices were to go up a bunch more, that's taking otherwise spendable money out of people's pockets.
But right now we we don't actually see much slowdown in uh yet from certainly none from from this. But you think logically you will because people have a certain amount of money to spend if they're spending 25% more on gas or something like that then you know that's going to come out of other spending.
But we again we don't see it yet. Um one last thing you mentioned those economies in Southeast Asia that are particularly dependent on petroleum. Um they make a lot of the stuff that American consumers buy. So, was there any discussion today about whether or not those costs getting passed along to consumers is a real concern and whether or not that might push up inflation?
So, all of those things are in are are in the models that that we use to calculate inflation. So, we, you know, they're they're just parts. You can ask about anything like that and they are they have a place the staff has a place where they're looking at that and pricing in what will happen with higher prices and that kind of thing.
Uh so it's there the effects are not that big yet. Uh you know we're a huge economy. The import sector is only 10% of the economy. So we're not like a European country where 50% of the uh external of the GDP is in the external sector. We're also you know as I mentioned we're an oil exporter. So, we're not feeling the same kind of pain and we're not likely to feel the same kind of pain that economies in in Western Europe and and certainly in Asia are feeling.
Anyway, thank you very much everyone. That's it. Clap for him. And we'll see you next time. Yeah. I don't know, dude. I almost cried for many reasons. Dude, give me my [ __ ] meditation music, please. So, yeah, bro, if you don't understand, that's why too, like I was saying earlier, I don't know if you're ever confused why the market ignores a lot of [ __ ] I mean, even then, just go like I was telling you, he could have confirmed or denied a lot of risk.
And there was a period where he mentioned rate hikes for a little bit and then he watered it down. So that kind of took it off of the table, but at the end of the day, it wasn't uh you know, he just this was uh this one did not they weren't talking anything about the market. They were literally uh cuz he had an opportunity.
I mean, in the beginning, it would have went different. If he did announce his reg his resignation as per the custom uh as since again 1948, I'm sure we would have probably had more economic questions, but a lot of people were more concerned again with Fed independence. uh what he's doing, staying on, shadowfed, is it political, is it not?
All all sorts of things. So, yeah, it was good. Yeah, throw a GG for Powell, man. That's what I'm saying. I mean, I I try to even forgive him. I did forgive him for a lot of, you know, just it's not like Powell I think his first couple of years were actually really good. He did very well during CO. Uh but yeah, I mean Powell probably had one of the dirtiest Fed boards uh in terms of people getting in trouble, indicted, and even getting like kicked off before Donald Trump was an issue.
Uh not to mention the transitory and the money supply and the bank bailouts. Uh you know, and then you get to the cut on the election. So I said I'm willing to look past all of it. Uh especially they dropped the case on Powell. So, but he's, if you're not understanding, he said even though the case is dropped, he is worried about the case being reopened.
So, he's going to stay on as a governor, not the chair, but he will stay on as a governor. And that has not happened since 1948. And his logic is that it would give him more leverage, but like I was telling you guys, if you heard me, it's not as if that protects him fully. Uh, it's not I don't even think it gives him a real protection.
It just makes it a like, you know, again, he can't get fired. He could get prosecuted way easier than getting fired as a governor. That's the part that I believe is a little confusing about all of it. Uh but yeah, that's it. So now the fact he's staying on, I mean, it does add again, it does there is criticism that it could be political because it does change the dynamic of the Fed and even though there is many members, uh it's pretty balanced.
So now you're going to have Powell in one end and where his vote even though he's a normal governor, his vote might actually have more weight. And then not to mention, I mean, he's just going to be hanging over the the shoulder of the new guy, which is again, like he said, you know, some people and then new jobs don't open unless somebody leads.
But uh yeah, dude, it's uh it's a fascinating one that he's chosen. You know, I the last I really Powell I guess Powell has broken precedent. uh a couple times and two out of three now have kind of been a little okay cuz the first time he broke precedent was co and that's when he did good you know the economy the world was [ __ ] crashing you know instead of acting like a normal Fed chair who would have like waited in seed Powell came out rate cut emergency meeting did it backto back he didn't hesitate at all you could argue that broke precedent and that ended up helping people except for them keeping rates low for so wrong and then causing the inflation.
Uh but other than that, he did the other big precedent break was the election. So that's why I mean there's a little bit of irony and humor where he says, you know, the Fed would you know they don't want to hurt or help politics, but him staying on as a governor could actually hurt the current administration.
And then at the same time, depending on how you want to view it, uh considering you didn't really do anything since then, uh the the cut before the election that again, it's been a while since somebody literally cut uh within 30 days of an election by a large amount. So, and then now him staying on as the governor, that just like I'm saying, it's only happened 1918 and then 1948.
So, Powell's still going to be in the scene. I mean, hey, maybe he'll get to enjoy his building. He'll be he'll be still working with the Fed. Uh, but yeah, for the most part though, uh, it will still be Kevin Worsh. And it and he did acknowledge, he said, you know, if Kevin Worsh could convince everybody and Powell, you know, now Kevin Worsh has to gain respect with the old guy still kind of hovering in the background now.
You know what I'm saying? And you got to It's like trying to talk about real news while your while your hyper political friends are hanging around. You know, you say you got, well, oh, yeah. Oh, you watch that? Oh, okay. Yeah. Well, really? Uh, so yeah, it's going to it's going to be very interesting.
But he did acknowledge that rate and policy could change a lot by the next meeting. But he said, you know, generally the Fed, we we kind of uh we kind of know where they're they're at with all of it. I don't think Powell trusts Worsh. I don't even trust Worsh to be honest. You know, Powell said he'll take him at his word.
So, you know, at least uh I guess I don't know. The devil, you know, is better than the devil you don't know. But like, but here's the other part. This is the problem. Uh you got to think about what what if Kevin Worsh does the same thing. [ __ ] me, dude. That's that's the problem is that, you know, this is why I don't like precedent being broken.
Uh especially when there's president that has been along uh around longer than even my parents have been alive. Uh because when you do stuff like this, it starts to open the doors. I mean again now what if Worsh cuts before JD Vance wants to run for election? Uh that that could happen now. I mean why you have a very recent example.
What if what if Kevin Worsh wants to do the same thing? What if these other what if the rest of the Fed guys get in trouble for insider trading? Uh, and then it gets replaced with a bunch of Republicans. Uh, and then on top of it, Kevin Worsh is like, I'm going to stay on as the governor as well, too, just in case.
Uh, because again, what and then just like you're saying, what if what if the new president comes in and says, "Fuck Kevin Worsh. We're going to go after him like Trump went after Powell." And then, do you see what I'm saying? So, it's not as if Donald Trump is completely innocent in this breaking precedent again, but this is something I've told you guys uh many times prior.
I have a higher standard for Jerome Powell than I do Donald Trump. I have the, you know, this Fed institution, non-government, controls our money supply, controls all this other [ __ ] I had I put a higher standard on them than the guy posting M16 memes about destroying uh not being Mr. Nice Guy. So, that's why I've said I I do think Powell knows better with a lot of stuff, but I don't know.
Maybe Pow's getting old, dude. That was that was probably his most boomer move. But yeah, that's why it's just like, dude, this is uh you know, it takes two to tango and even though precedent does get broken, I I don't think going down the whole [ __ ] president ladder is going to uh to fix the problem, more or less.
Yeah, oil is rocketing. It's kind of wild how they're they're all reacting to this, man. Like I'm saying that you just got to see, you know, the market be very or even everybody at this Fed meeting uh be very sanguin about it all. So yeah, bro. Crazy. Where is that? Let's see. Okay. I'm in a coat. All right, I got rid of my Microsoft Ghetto spread.
I had it there was a couple I think it was near a th000% still I had to take it. I didn't want to gamble on it but you have to decide. Last time I did that intel would have went 3,000%. But you know I'm a content individual. So I got out of that. Oh I still have a meta. Those are up just under 100. We made those free.
Where is is that one in the game? The Microsofts could have went in the money though. I didn't want to risk it if they clobber it. Oh, I you'd have to get pretty high on the meta, but the meta is a lot smaller. I had a lot of money in the Microsoft one. Uh, no. I mean, earnings that's it after today now.
So, you got to think about it after the bell here. That's it. Everything is going to change for better or for worse. And then, and then you have high oil. So, but if these earnings are good, awesome. If these earnings are bad, uh oh, hot dog. And then, yeah, then it starts to get a little crazy. Then you got then you got to really start worrying about it.
Um, let's see. Yeah, it should be a good time. Should be a good time. I'm seeing any other ones. So, meta and then the videos. So, I'm going to hold in the videos cuz then uh I think I will add more depending on how it plays. If they all rip, I'm not adding more. But depending on the dynamics of the reports and then that way we lower the risk with Microsoft.
Who's the other one? And then yeah, meta. You just got to decide on meta. I think I might hold the meta. But then again, I am kind of down to uh I'm down to kind of just walk away with that one, too. Cuz again, these contracts only have two weeks of time now. Again, it's about to be May. So, one bad earnings, you're going to lose all that free earnings premium.
Actually, let's see. Well, that I think the last one we have I think they're all within two standard deviations. Mhm. 100 bucks. Yep. They were They're all two standard deviations and they're up, but they're not cheap. Not cheap at all, habibi. No earnings preview. I mean, all that really matters is there's like all four of them.
They have specific things like AWS. They need 30% growth on AWS. Meta needs a high revenue guide above 61 billion. Uh and then the quarter over quarter 2 has to be good. Google needs good ad results to not freak out with uh AI like on the search. But then also uh Google Cloud is like 60%. Cuz remember Google Cloud is much much smaller than all of the other cloud providers.
And then Microsoft they need 38%. uh and they need to kind of be a little bit more stable than last time. Remember, uh uh Google is uh Google or excuse me, Microsoft has the most to gain and the most to lose. So, I'm not going over all the previews. I mean, we've talked a little bit about pricing on a lot of them today.
Uh you should go over them if you need to, but like I'm telling you with Mag 7, these companies, they're going to have earnings topline, bottom line, but like I'm sure you guys Oh, what the [ __ ] But you guys have seen um you have seen the big seven earnings sometimes doesn't matter if you beat top or bottom line people are looking for other things.
So like I'm telling you those are the four factors growth rate on AWS revenue and kind of the spending on meta Google search and then Google cloud at 60% and then Azour above 38% and stability from the last report and then Microsoft has the most to gain and lose. Microsoft is the least crowded believe it or not.
So again, if Microsoft does good, uh I think they will get rewarded heavily. If not, if they they could come back down below 400, I think quite easily. So yeah, it just all depends on the report. I'm going to stay for earnings, but I can't stay too long. I could do like maybe 20 30 minutes tops. That's the only problem.
Oh, let's see. So, Amazonian that one place surprisingly is up barely. They were up a lot more in the morning. So, you still got some. You could either hold that or push it. PayPal. Uh, we had in the long term. I mean, the all this buyout stuff gets it hyped. I think we're down on it. It was a lot cheaper from when those rumors started, but maybe it's not first on my list.
Jeep withdrawing offer speculation. PPC. I'm leaning more bullish overall, but you just never know. I mean, that's the problem. The problem right now is that like you have such vibes in the market and then now oil and the other pillars are 50/50. Today is a quarter of the market. So, like I'm telling you, it just like and you saw it the other day with the Open AI stuff.
Just keep in mind earnings changes everything. the today today changes everything because if these earnings are bad just don't for you guys have seen it before trust me you have witnessed it how quickly the market could go from oh [screaming] my gosh it's a crash so you know I'm sorry if I woke up anybody but yeah the whole idea is that it could change on a dime and then we could wake up with everything all in the red tomorrow or again if you thought we rallied you know uh yeah this [ __ ] could [ __ ] [ __ ] rip tomorrow.
Uh, and everybody's feeling good. And if you thought you saw people chasing, oh yeah, you ain't seen [ __ ] yet. You know what I'm saying? That's where it starts to get a little nuttier. So, yeah, that's kind of the uh the general idea. I didn't see running Intel is great. Oh, I did. Yeah, I got that email.
I have to I didn't see the email, but I just looked now. I didn't have time to read it through. But yeah, I do want to figure that out if possible. And then I don't know if you heard Tim you you long term will never keep up with anything. You should sell everything and bet against the market and turn bearish.
Okay? Stop wasting your time growing your assets. You should take all the money you have now and bet against the market. It's not like a lot of people did that 45 days ago and got their [ __ ] rocked. But I still you did you know that Tim Naduk, why are you trying to [ __ ] cause a bearish revival? The bears have already Okay, you need to regroup.
The bears need to today that could happen. But if not, dog, you know what I'm saying, bro? I see you're you're really dystopian for not believing in AI in the same way. But yeah, I don't know if that was it. Do a poll if we're tanking or ripping. Well, all that matters is your positioning. So whether you believe it or not, uh, put yourself in a win-win.
That's why I saying I took some profits out here. We killed it in the last month. I would hate to. I already got a good bag off the other ones, but I really wanted to push it a little harder, but you know, I saying I'm going to make sure that we can't lose. Make sure you can't lose, brother. Make sure you can't lose.
Okay. Go do these. Oh, core. We've moved a lot. I forgot about those. Everybody in the RGV. All righty. I think I'm good. I still have the CRM. Those came back down and then my niv does. But yeah. Oh yeah, the meta is already free. It's worth a lot, but I'll keep that one. It's not as much, but yeah, making sure we don't give back anything good, you know, if we get lucky.
I I think I like Microsoft more though, but I don't want to put that much down on earnings. Maybe a cheap one. Actually, now that I think of it, it's not a bad idea, Joshua. You know, maybe like a cheap one with the expire. Hold on, let me see. Oh wow. So expans these guys man. What's the next week one?
Oh wow. May the eighth be with you. I thought May the fourth we be with you. you know. Mhm. I know. Even the two standard deviations, you got to you got to pay a bag for them, dude. Today did fly by and it's sad, bro. It's sad with Powell. Venezuela and BP have signed a memorandum of understanding for gas exploration.
Wow. No, IGV, not RGV. Not the real Grand Valley. Yeah. The only way to get something worthwhile and cheap on Microsoft is extremely low time. Otherwise, they want your soul. They want you to really pay for it. You know, they say you want to make a game, huh? You need to have big money, dog. Big money.
Fly, pelican. Fly. I'll throw one on there. Well, Microsoft, I think, is the one that packs the most. So, Microsoft again, uh, so does Meta. Meta and Microsoft are both underpositioned. Google and Amazon are probably going to do good. And maybe if Amazon does good like last time, you know, it's not like Amazon makes big moves.
So, it kind of people like it when it breaks out, but it kind of did that last time and then faded. But Microsoft is the one that could either get [ __ ] destroyed or Microsoft can really, you know, they come back alive. You know, Bill Gates was like, "What's up, son? [ __ ] yeah, I went to that island.
[ __ ] yeah, I drugged my wife." It don't matter. You can't stop the software. You know, those are possibilities. All right, dude. We'll wrap it up. 50 bucks on it after taking a sizable portion. It's very good, man. Very good. That's just in case, you know, just cuz it have that ability. And then if it does bad, dude, then maybe we add it to the long term.
Maybe it does really bad and we add it to the long term. You know what I'm saying? Not a recommendation. Not a recommendation. Aren't you excited? Is this exciting? Uh, you clipped content. Is that okay? I don't know. You should become a clipper. You want me to hire you? Apparently, that's what all the streamers do.
They have an army of [ __ ] Pakistanians and they just clip content and they spread it. That's how other That's how you're supposed to stream because nobody watches a full stream apparently. So, but I don't know. You want a job? You got to put it out not on your own account. Yeah. You got to just keep putting them out everywhere.
Yeah, bro. The Clippers. Two standards. Yeah, that's what I was saying. That's why nothing was cheap, dude. Even though they came down a [ __ ] ton. But yeah, two standard devi remember Microsoft's kind of limited with how it could move. That's why I'm like, h I like the original play. The original plays we got last month, the one I sold, those were all in the money, but yeah, you were putting it all on the line if that's it.
And they had fat gains. So that's like, oh, I got to take them. Lebanese parliament and foreign minister uh of Iran speak on phone talking latest developments. Do I always make a video when you add something to the long term, even if it's one I previously bought? Yes. On the trading fraternity. So, that's why I say uh if you go and look for that, you you'll be good to go.
You'll be good to go. you'll do it. It's a commission job though. I don't know. I've never hired a clipper. I don't know how they do it. Well, I do, but like I've never done it. They like pay you per like 10,000 or 100,000 views. So, you got to take the clips and then pump them. But if you don't get pumps, then you don't get [ __ ] And so, it's like or that's why I saying you might as well just get into real estate.
But same same philosophy. I want to see Bill Gates dance on stage to win. Man, Bill Gates. Jerome, I'm still processing Jerome Powell, man. You know that. Jerome, God bless his soul, dude. I really Today was the first time I looked at him like a boomer. He had that boomer look where he knew what he was saying was ridiculous, but he's still like, "I'm not [ __ ] leaving." Like, you know what I'm saying?
Like I don't know how to describe it where like he just looked he looked you in the eyes and was like I'm not [ __ ] He's like yeah nobody gets a job cuz other people won't leave. He looked you dead in the eyes and said you just need to work harder. Okay and I'm staying on board. He can move on. I don't think that's I don't think that's a real objection.
he gets more a little bit more leverage, but like yeah, if you're really worried about getting indicted, [ __ ] move to Cuba. But like or do he anything, bro? I mean, let me put it this way. All of the other Fed people that blatantly violated laws, regulations, everything. You know what I'm saying? All of this.
What happened to them, bro? Richard Clarita was gambling on Netflix stock during one of the worst times in history and made money on it. Homeg girl got hired and instantly started trading in between Fed windows with zero literally the most blatant day trading and insider trading. What happened to her?
Nothing. Fed Bostic did it two or three times. What happened to these people? And you guys know Janet Yellen was investigated too, right? There was investigations into data being leaked in 2012 with Janet Yellen. Even Arthur Burns, there was pressure with Richard Nixon. Like, do you get what I'm saying?
I don't think it's a real If you're telling me I can't leave my job and I have to break World War II president, otherwise they're going to they're going to indict me. Like, come on, dude. If y'all if bro if if this is what I'm It's like when Donald Trump says [ __ ] and people are like, "Yeah, I didn't buy it because Donald Trump said this." I'm like, "You don't believe anything else Donald Trump says?
Why are you believing this one?" So it's like cuz I just view it as insane where I if dog if Bostic hasn't caught in a charge, why the [ __ ] do you think Powell will do? You understand? Is that a fair statement? You really don't think that's a fair statement? I don't. If that's the case, then you might not understand the world to be honest with you.
Think about it. You have just watched some of the most blatant grievances ever witnessed in in several year in the whole history of the Fed. You get what I'm saying? Yes. Even Lagarde caught a charge, but even then, no one gave a [ __ ] That's what I'm saying. Is this really? So if you want to do that to play, I don't even think it's about Powell.
This is all just so that 5 10 years from now, you keep watching this [ __ ] And [ __ ] don't give up power at all. That's it. That's all you're signing up for by supporting precedent being broken. That goes for Donald Trump. That goes for [ __ ] Powell. It goes any side you want to support. That's all.
They're two wings of the same bird. They are just building a system where you are becoming acceptable with not with being okay if these guys never leave and that's it. And holding on to power like we live in a banana [ __ ] republic. So yeah, thank you. Thank you for your time. I love you, Powell. I still love you, dude.
I still love you, dude. But that's I don't know. Hopefully I don't write the autobiography or the biography. A couple more minutes. Chattonia. Couple more minutes. You better wrap. I wrapped my up my plays up. Got some small ones, got some big ones. And then eBay started moving. I put that up there.
We got to hit those PayPals today. So, that was a nice one. I feel you, dude. Goulby like lowkey honestly Goulsby I wasn't [ __ ] with him at first and then he just came out and he was like golden path and then it [ __ ] hit and then then he was like okay I'm a Democrat but like lowkey at least he hasn't [ __ ] I haven't caught him with his hand in the cookie jar so you know you know Goulsby I'll give it to you bro I'll give it even [ __ ] Fed Moran's like we should cut all the time [ __ ] Fed Moran oh and the other [ __ ] waller was like, "Wait, you guys will actually hire me?
I'll make a couple statements." And like, "No, [ __ ] Waller. No, we love your hair. It's so white. How do you get it that [ __ ] shiny?" But other than But yeah, ghouls be like lowkey. Again, I like I don't know, man. I'm telling you, even, you know, I'm surprised more people didn't bring it up. I mean, Powell's Fed all of his governors, they have had a stinky stinky record.
And I'm not talking about policy. I'm talking about individual actions to enrich themselves. So, it's kind of uh I don't know, but people only care about that when people tell you to care about it. Uh that's what I learned yesterday with uh some other things, you know. But man, I am Come on, P. Come on, big pal.
I wanted to get a Powell poster. You know that Michael Jordan poster with his arms stretched out like the wingspan? I wanted that with Powell. That's what I was going to do. I was But now I'm like, he's still there. There's not, man. P's not pushing P. Dude, it is a kleptocracy, dude. They won't [ __ ] leave.
You guys don't think that's Do you think this? If you really think I care about Donald Trump, you are not under I'm younger. Okay, some of you are younger. Do you not see what the [ __ ] is happening? I do I can I make a more clear in English for you? They are all working together to never give up power.
How are you not seeing this? Do you got you understand what I am saying? Just look around. They we wouldn't have even broken precedent of like it's it started with Donald and then the consumer sentiment and then everything's as bad as World War II. So that's why I'm saying they use Donald Trump to get you to justify dumb [ __ ] Then they do dumb [ __ ] and then Donald Trump comes in, does the other dumb [ __ ] and you're like, "Oh, I got to do the more dumb shit." Oh, let's just hand them all of our [ __ ] freedom and rights in power because we have to go play pingpong politics every four to eight years.
Are you not seeing it? Oh man, I go on crazy rants at the end of the day. One minute. [screaming] Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it's time to wrap it up. Bring it home. Finalize the plays. Make sure you wrap up your earnings, man. Shares, futures, options, whatever you want, dude.
But wrap it up. Raperooni, Chattaduni. That's it. And I hope I I hope you you do what you need to. I hope you do what you need to. A lot a lot is on the line today for some. We had we heard a lot, but you have less than 5 seconds now. Your time's over. 4 3 2 1. Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding.
Ohia. Chattania. We did it. We made it, baby. 7 hours in the books. I hope you enjoy it. I hope you're feeling good, man. That's it. GG's. I don't know. I want to play you a GG song, but I'm gonna just drop my GG. I don't know. I don't know when the when the news is going to come out at any moment. I know Apple is tomorrow.
Uh, but Amazon, Microsoft, I care about Microsoft and Metaoft. Those are the ones we want to look out for. But you'll see the high ticker just go [ __ ] nuts. Uh, Meta is kind of tweaking already. Hold on. You got a little gap up on Meta. Uh, Meta's moving. I don't know if it came out. And Microsoft now, too.
S&P officially closes down. Bop Qualcomm adjusted EPS to Oh, Qualcomm just guided down. There's Meta. Meta's tweaking. So, Meta just tweaked up and Amazon gone. Oh, no. So, hold on. Give me a second for these numbers. I'm going to get the easy ones. That's why I mean again, I just took a bunch of risk off the [ __ ] table, so I'mma wait for my easy numbers.
[ __ ] y'all. So, what y'all What y'all say, bro? The market's a bunch of crackheads. So, there you go. Oh, Microsoft. Okay, now I regret it. Saudi Arabia pulls funding from LIIV Golf. Microsoft Hit, it looks like. Come on, load. Microsoft Capix. Oh, why is it doing this? Oh, wait. Qualcomm EPS 210 to 230.
I only see Qualcomm. Is it not out or am I tripping? It had to be fourear capex on Meta 125 to 14. So they raised that could be the bad part. See if Nvidia goes up on it. Meta is already down three. It's not bad. Amazon 194 to 199. They beat I don't think Microsoft Microsoft could be reacting to everything else.
I don't see it yet again. I see Quali and then Amazon they beat on sales. Remember Amazon you need 30% on it. Uh what's it called? Microsoft AER at 39. Yeah, that's all that's all you needed. They killed it then. And then uh see Google you're going to need cloud. Remember that was the number I told you.
You need 38 on AER, not 39. So they did good. And then AWS needs 30. So like I said, I'm not even looking at all the other [ __ ] You just want to see those numbers. Oh, [ __ ] me. Sorry, Microsoft. I should have held it. No. Third quarter revenue 828 to 814. And then Google. All right. I think the only one down right now is uh is Meta.
That's it. AWS was 28 verse 25. That's not good. So yeah, they didn't do 30. Meta was 563. Uh beating estimate of 554. Advertising 55. Uh what's the guide? They guided revenue to 58 to 61. I needed 61 at the high at the high end. So they guide it up on meta but a little lower. That's the problem. Alphabet look for uh cloud.
You need cloud and search at 18, but cloud needs to be 60 or higher. Again, these are all the algo triggers, my brother. Oh yeah, Microsoft hit for a second, but again, I think Microsoft wasn't bad. Aer did it. Aer did it. At least on the top end. You want stability on everything else. Amazon EPS of 270 verse 160.
Night sales again. Aer missed technically at least to my estimates it was above their forecast but and that's excluding forex but yeah I don't think that's good. They guided 194 to 199 estimate was 189 and then they guided operating income higher so yeah. Mhm. Nvidia I mean again they're all spending money.
So Nvidia should benefit off most of these. Again none of them were really bad. They were bad towards what I was telling you. Cloud revenue was 63. Then yeah, they're going to rip. All right. Well, that's it. And then Intel at 95. Isn't that funny? Come on. That's pretty funny, right? So, yeah, it's funny.
Nvidia is going up a little bit, but like, who would have thought Intel would have been the one? Intel's moving on capex. Like, it's damn Nvidia. You know why? Cuz it's the best chip stock in the world. Mhm. Intel at 100. I love it. So yeah, Meadow is the only one that missed per these metrics. And again, Amazon did too.
Amazon guided up, but they missed on cloud. So I don't like that. But I think Google Google was solid. Good cloud. They they've been the leader. They were the best one. Again, Microsoft, they beat Microsoft beat on everything. And like I'm saying, the AER was better than expected, but that already faded.
I don't know why. Uh let's see. They posted EPS operating income. No, I don't know why Microsoft. They just hate you. But yeah, cloud was 55. 545 versus 53. Yeah, AER was 39 excluding Forex. 382 was the for they did it still. Commercial cloud. What am I missing on that one? Capital expenditures at 31.
No, capital expenditures were even lower. Huh? No, no, no. Is that it? Operating income beat by 2 billion. 319 versus 35. They spent 10% less interest. Yeah, you might need it. But Microsoft is the weird one. That was actually that beat everything I was looking for. And then they lowered expenses. No way.
Wall Street's like, you're lowering expenses. What do you mean? That maybe they're like, that's a sign of trouble. Yeah, it literally just gave up all of it. That's kind of nutty. But yeah, again, Google was probably the best one. And then Meta wasn't good. Meta guided up. Again, Amazon even guided up, but they missed on uh but they beat on on AWS, which I like.
And they guided up, too. Or no, they missed on AWS and guided up. Who was it? Meta was the one. Meta guided up where they needed to, but then yeah, Capex went higher. That Microsoft reaction is kind of trippy. Google lifted dividend. All right, dude. Service revenue came in at Yeah, Google [ __ ] killed it, dude.
They again, they're the most crowded and they were the leader out of all of them. So, again, Google's not even having like a It's not even a crazy one. Amazon barely. get Microsoft and Meta. Well, I think both of them uh Microsoft call starts and they give more guidance. So, you technically don't have a Microsoft guide right now.
Same thing with AWS and uh Amazon. So, those could both move. I think Meta, you already have your guide. So, that one's not conference call driven. And then Google, I think you're going to have it. That's cuz Microsoft wants to be a part of the long term. You think I'm missing the tech knowledge? I know I'm a dumb dumb dude.
Don't listen to me. Don't worry. But it is this is earning season. Like I told you, things can change very quickly. So, but yeah, all there's half of these threequarters of them don't have a conference call yet. So, you'll be kind of at that mercy. Why is Ford ripping? You're like, Maky. I know Qualcomm.
They Qualcomm guided down uh technically on EPS. That was not good. Ford built tough. Does that focus the shift back to the war? It does. I don't think the earnings were bad. Let's see what they say on the conference call. So, these earnings were not bad. Every one of these companies, they had some specific areas that we were paying attention to from the last time.
Uh but at the same time, you got to look ahead to now these calls. Like I'm saying, three of them, they all have conference calls, but three of those conference calls contain guidance. Meta, excuse me, Google, Microsoft, and then Amazon. And then those are related to cloud and everything else going on.
So, we're going to find out. But essentially, those conference calls, if those turn defensive and then oil up, I would take that as negative. bad guidance, negative conference call, I would say you'll have some pressure tomorrow. Otherwise, if those conference calls are very optimistic and they don't have the same defensive tone, then I think that could be fairly positive.
Uh or at least assuming crude doesn't hit a new high uh above 120. But then we are going to get rid of some of this. You still got Apple tomorrow, so there'll be a little bit of a of a parachute slowing you down. But that is kind of the uh the general idea. And then we're going to end the month. So tomorrow's going to have some fireworks.
And then tomorrow's Thursday, right? Yeah. We're going to have some fireworks. And then you are going to go from there. And then the new month and everyone's going to tell you sell in May and go away. Don't listen to them, but be ready for it just in case. Uh just cuz you know history. And then uh follow me on Instagram.
2026 and it is tax day. Uh follow me on Instagram because I'm going to post another play, but this play will be different. The Nvidia plays are still in check. It's funny. Nvidia is tracking Microsoft a little better. Ford adjusted EPS 66 cents versus 19. Jeez, dude. They raised adjusted Ibida. That you bet you Ford's going to be like we invested in Anthropic.
We turn the mock EVs into a data center. Like what the [ __ ] Oh, I know. Well, I I'm going try if I remember to post them on YouTube, but like like I said, bro, I don't like posting them on YouTube cuz like I don't know if it [ __ ] with the algo, but then even then I'll post it on YouTube and then YouTube will just hate on me and it'll probably limit the when I put out the long-term video.
I don't want to bog you down and then I have to read like the 10 com. Why'd you vote for Trump? Uh, what you posted has nothing to do and is only giving me information for free that could potentially help me. I [ __ ] hate you. But then I'm saying I posted on Instagram, they will give it to the whole world and I like that, you know?
I like making sure the world knows cuz Wall Street want to silence us all. You know what I'm saying? Even I'm trying I try to put them on game, dog. I just trying to put y'all on game, bro. So that being said, uh I think I'm going to depart. Uh you know, headwinds in EU and US could significantly impact results.
Uh oh, hot dog. So Meta just that's first bad sign again. They already gave guidance, but that's the sign of things to come. They still want to see it even if they say they don't. Well, yeah, but that's why it's like I don't want to give it to them and then YouTube won't give it to the people who need it.
But like I'm saying, the algo on uh the algo on [ __ ] Instagram, it's literally just like it's relevant. Like I'm saying, so if you're watching certain things and you're into certain like categories, it it'll show you it. So like all the people on uh all the people on IG, I they're traders. If it's a trading video, it's like it's kind of nuts, dude.
Uh, I'm I'm actually that's why I've been so impressed with it until it stops. But yeah, it's been nice. All right. Well, Chad, I think I'm going to depart. I'm not going to wait for the conference calls. I'll read them tonight. So, yeah, go on uh Instagram for your for your little mini watch list tonight.
Uh and then I will uh not have a watch list tonight and then get ready for Friday Junior. You know what I'm saying? Friday Junior ready to go and finger to the sky. To God be the glory. And through the grace of God alone, baby. More alltime highs, more long-term, more compounding. And remember, for over half a decade, all of this is free and provided to you.
And it's all because of our sponsor. You know, I did I sold out a while ago, bro. I had to. I got to take that big pharma money and it's just all content is brought to you by Long-Term Monthly. So, have a wonderful day, Chad. I love you and yeah, good luck. I mean, again, you if you were on options, you should have already made your decision.
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