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hey everyone me kevin here the tesla annual shareholder meeting just took place in austin in this video i'm going to break down everything that was discussed but first we heard the model 3 became the best-selling premium vehicle sold globally beating the bmw 3 series mercedes c and e-class tesla now also believes that the model y will become the best selling vehicle of any kind not just premium vehicle of any kind globally potentially by 2023 if not by next year 2022 in terms of a free cash flow generation cash flow generation has been substantially higher and better than what we've seen in 2017 and 18 and 2017 we obviously had free cash flow losses and uh 2018 barely break even 2019 2020 and in the last four quarters we've definitely seen that bump up you can in fact take a look on screen now and you see this sort of little chart here that was put up strong free cash flow generation of just over 4 billion dollars in the last four quarters which is great of course you get a lot of tesla critics that say oh but what about all those vehicle credits and energy credits hey you know that helps a newer company get off the ground but uh tesla's not gonna need those going forward uh even though they'll still get them uh elon musk even mentioned that in 2017-18 things look quoted dicey but this is now part of tesla's past and uh he he says quote especially if you multiply unit volume by autonomy and increased efficiency in the factory the free cash flow is essentially going to explode and remember the elon musk has this projection that we should be able to get to with 30 gross margin which would be absolutely unheard of in the vehicle manufacturing industry right now gross margin is somewhere without tax credits around 22 percent and elon musk's goal is to get this to 30 percent elon musk can tend to have very ambitious goals but even if without credits we get to 25 26 profitability at tesla just goes absolutely through the roof by 2025 i expect we should easily be able to uh hit some number like 28 percent in fact in my projections where i think a reasonable curve to get to an eighteen hundred dollar sales price uh per share target for tesla i use a 28 gross margin by 2025 and i think that's very very reasonable then we also heard that tesla is open to licensing autonomy he expects that eventually all automotive automotive manufacturers will make battery electric vehicles and eventually they'll all be autonomous vehicles and he says that he's open to licensing this because quote it will be such a significant lifesaver and preventer of injuries that would be morally right to license it out to other manufacturers if they'd like to use it which is wonderful because it's not going to cost tesla i mean it'll cost a tesla a little bit but i would expect the the marginal cost of providing autonomy to other vehicle manufacturers will be virtually zero they'll probably be some customer service uh some adjustments that may need to be made for individual vehicle models so even if you put in a 10 expense ratio or even 15 20 percent expense ratio for uh autonomy licensing or autonomous vehicle licensing you're still going to be netting somewhere around 80 to 90 cents on every dollar of autonomy licensing and if this is something that could be a recurring revenue package or even a one-time upfront payment i would expect profitability at tesla to just explode because really now we're not just focused on becoming the largest vehicle manufacturer in the world we're taking the place of someone like toyota but we're actually exponentially increasing our revenue by selling to all the other manufacturers autonomy software an absolutely incredible opportunity uh and especially if we can do this without lidar which so far so far been working without lidar i'm very impressed i really think the neos you know the neos including forward-facing lidar is very smart especially since it actually doesn't look that bad if you look up we looked this up this morning in the live stream it was the neo neo et7 it it has forward-facing lidar and two cameras on the sides and when you look at the forward-facing lidar it's not horrible you know the forward-facing light or just surround lidar which they used to be so interested in surround light are was pretty ugly with those domes on the roof that spin around take a look at this picture of forward-facing lidar here on the et7 it's not bad it's just sort of like a little hump there cameras on the side tesla has those cameras on on more the sides rather than the top there which it looks like you might actually have these on the side here as well but anyway hey i mean i get it the car is certainly sleeker without those humps there uh and uh hey if you could do without great keep it up elon so uh elon is focused on ongoing cost reduction oh look at that he's actually talking about uh margin here average selling price versus a gross margin expectation and so uh they gave a forecast here actually it's not a forecast this is going this is sort of looking backwards this is uh showing gross margin slowly moving up moving and now this is with oh i'm sorry they wrote gross margin excluding credits uh that's good excluding credits they're actually showing that in the first half of 2021 uh they're they're coming in up just above 24 very very good i said 22 earlier in the video uh it looks like the most up-to-date would be just above 24 and uh the average selling price for vehicles uh coming down but actually not coming down as fast as i personally thought they would i thought we'd be much closer to 45 50 45 to 40 000 sooner and at this pace we're not falling too quickly and keep in mind that the second half of 2020 in the first half of 2021 included a significant reduction in the amount of model s's and model x's that were actually delivered so it's worth noting that average selling price per vehicle especially since prices are going up due to supply shortages the model 3 in the model y just had a price increase and we now have the model s and x revamps selling again at higher prices we can actually see this bar go up the gray bar here rather than go down again which is great uh obviously the higher the average selling price for per vehicle and the higher the margin the higher profitability so let's see here uh okay tesla's goal is to make cars as affordable as possible but they're seeing cost pressures in the supply chain chains so they had to temporarily increase prices on cars the model 3 now starts at 42 000 as opposed to that 39 000 for the psychological threshold on batteries tesla is still desperate for batteries and wants to buy as many as possible they said as long as they're fairly priced musk says quote there is no limit to how much they are willing to buy as much as you can make we will take and this is because a lot of folks worry that oh if tesla's trying to make their own batteries they're going to stop uh buying batteries from panasonic and elon musk has repeatedly claimed that no no no we need all the batteries like we're not going to stop working with panasonic because we're making our own tesla prioritizes batteries for vehicles and then the excess go into power walls and mega packs over time they do expect demand for stationary storage is going to be at least as high as demand for vehicles that right there is also bullish for end phase shout out to end phase also another battery storage provider this is because sustainable energy is intermittent wind doesn't blow all the time it's true you get a lot of solid wind in the early morning hours like two to six a.m and oftentimes solar pretty uh pretty rigidly between this 11 to 3 p.m time frame you're usually looking at about a four hour effective time for solar that's at least when you calculate solar sort of an average of solar efficacy you're usually using a four hour per day uh a solar calendar and i know the sun is out more than that but that's like full-time efficacy you usually use to calculate solar generation and so obviously you have you have significant uh black holes with within that time frame the pillars of sustainable uh a sustainable future are number one solar and wind number two stationary batteries and number three electric transportation he mentions that batteries need to be recyclable and they are he says they're basically high-grade ore which is kind of cool that batteries uh have your minerals in it that it's kind of like ah yes this battery has has a lot of high quality material and mineral in it rather than a lot of dirt and stuff that we need to filter out it's actually a really good analogy and it kind of gets me excited about like what redwood materials is doing uh co-founder of tesla running that over running that company and uh really ramping up battery production and battery recycling it's very good reference high grade ore uh you can't understate how important that reference is very very uh important to think of it like that uh really uh why go digging for the material when it's in an old battery now in my opinion we don't have anywhere near the amount of old batteries that we need so battery recycling is still going to take a while to catch up but you know if we're creating a whole new use case for batteries there are only so many old batteries we can really use but preparing for good battery recycling great idea five step because nobody's gonna really want to buy a used battery like you buy a new model x or a model y are you going to want uh you know a battery from a car that got totaled but the battery was mostly okay right no that battery needs to be recycled and then and then rebuilt essentially of course elon musk then also talked about how they are planning to as quickly as possible ramp up the cost reductions curve for uh battery materials including how they design battery cells how they manufacture them the materials they use for the anodes and the cathodes and of course how they integrate them into vehicles remember tesla is now going in the direction of using structural battery packs which means battery swapping doesn't work and you can't you can't really take the battery out and throw it into another car you will have to go through battery recycling so especially with uh with with tesla we're going to see a lot more of a requirement to have uh battery recycling something to think about especially as tesla manufactures more cars giga shanghai now exceeds the fremont factory in terms of production which is not a surprise a substantial uh expansion in giga shanghai with a capacity of producing 1 million vehicles a year which is incredible of course we're not at full capacity yet although capacity is growing substantially increasing fremont operations and hoping to increase fremont output by 50 and remember all of the s's and x's are made in fremont all tesla factories will be doing battery production soon as well and tesla has made great improvements on safety in factories now 18 safer than other factories tesla big news moving its headquarters to austin texas not leaving the california fremont facility but are definitely moving the executives to uh to austin texas remember housing is less expensive there you've got longer commute times in california less so in texas and uh and there's a limit to really how much you could scale in the bay area so austin texas has much more of an opportunity to grow and scale and you don't have to pay state income taxes so you know why pay the state of california when you've got a failed government in california that increases homelessness and worsens our schools the more money they get sad ai day sort of an update on ai day musk says that this was important to changing the overall perception of tesla which people before considered it a car company but elon musk really wants to mention that tesla is as much of a software company as it is a hardware company questions in the q a section when will the cyber production ramp up happen musk has as many times struggle to answer this question generally he blows it off it's not going to be this year uh the expectation is that maybe sometime next year we can actually start seeing cyber truck production and ramping up the semi truck but right now he mentions that struggles with shortages uh this year the biggest obstacle if we had five extra products we would not change our vehicle output at all that's how impacted we are by the supply shortages it's not just chips it's everything is tesla thinking about a stock split uh basically not yet remember last time they kind of get motivated when the price was around fifteen hundred dollars maybe that'll be another trigger point 4680 battery production in texas not this year but they're making the 4680s in the pilot plant in california this is just a few miles away from fremont this is known as the cato facility and they expect to start model y production in texas this year using structural battery packs in the 4680s so that gives you a thorough update on what happened with tesla use that coupon code diamond hands and folks we'll see you in the next video thanks so much goodbye
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