저자: Alexandra · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가는 현재 225 수준으로 적정가치 300 대비 상승 여지가 있다고 봄. 최근 3주간 낙관론 확산. 금리 인상·사이버트럭 지연·멕시코 기가팩토리 착공 지연 등 리스크는 남아있음. 2023년 말 실적 리스크 해소 전망, 기관투자자(버크셔 등) 진입 시 추가 상승 기대. 광고 도입은 긍정적. 4680 배터리 지연과 AI(FSD, 옵티머스) 중요성 강조.
다듬은 글
intrinsically for me this stock is worth 300 today we've been today I think at 225 so we've got way to go until we are just at a fair value well back here in Santa Barbara had an amazing Seafood lunch with Alexandra at The Boathouse highly recommended and today we're going to talk about Tesla's stock because this month sentiments have changed a lot so Warren Buffett says to be greedy when others are fearful and to be fearful when others are greedy right now people are very optimistic about Tesla what are the risks that we should still consider well there are still risks I mean we've been optimistic now for about two three weeks right because the the moment where everything turned was when Elon announced that he has now a new CEO of Twitter then came the shareholder meeting it was a perfect presentation I think this was the best shareholder meeting of all I've seen and uh and then slowly but surely the sentiment changed so that was May 16th um so you know this has just been three weeks and we have been so beaten up you know us Tesla shareholders that these three weeks just feel like vacation now right it's getting so easy we're waking up in the morning we're seeing that stock price and we're happy um careful nevertheless careful the FED can still hike that can still be delays the Cyber truck may not be ready for September we all hope so but who knows um the groundbreaking in Mexico I would have actually assumed it had happened by now it still hasn't happened so there may be some delays there so I just always you know I'm on the cautious side but I mean intrinsically for me this stock is worth 300 today we've been today I think at 225 so we've got way to go until we are just at a fair value right it's got a bit choppy Q2 numbers could still be complicated the ones that we get beginning of July and then the financials after that but I do believe by the end of 2023 we're out of the woods it feels that way it does Tesla investor day was one of the rare Tesla events where the stock price actually went up after the events true for most events or quarterly earning stock price usually goes down right after the events true but I mean we were so big no come on now January at a hundred dollars I mean who would have felt that I I was always convinced 160 was the bottom right and I mean there were good reasons why it happened but it uh it did happen and it did hurt but it's behind us that's right for anyone who invested through the turbulence there are many ups and downs so retail investors are seeing some of the light what's it going to take for institutional investors to start seeing Tesla stock like their darling Apple stock that's true I mean first of all recognize that apple is getting bored I mean they just had their new product release and uh I mean I didn't find that very convincing but but we'll see um the what does it take for the Warren buffetts to get into the stock or for the more conservative Pension funds or fund managers I do believe they are really waiting this out they're still thinking this is some shaky grounds they rather purchase the stock later at a much higher price but at the moment where they're going to be BuyBacks where they may even think about dividends I mean I don't really believe Tesla is in the game for dividends but I think they just need something more value orientated this is too much of a growth stock and too much of a big growth stock for them that still has a lot of volatility so I do believe they you know they want to sit this out Miss the opportunities that's retail addresses I think we're much smarter than they are and uh and they will get back they will get back in or we'll get back in in it around 300 400 who knows it so they will have missed that part but the good thing for us is once they get in the stock will actually rally another 25 to 30 percent just because now they're back in right right so in the end I actually like what they're doing because if they come now fair enough we'll have you know an increase of the stuff I wouldn't have an increase of the stock already I think the fair value is much higher so I rather they get in later and we get another boost then much easier for us so that's the next stage institutional investors yeah the stage after that at many value investors look at is when Berkshire Hathaway comes into it yeah let's say at the five-year Mark when price is closer to a thousand dollars for Warren Buffett in the recent shelters meeting they were saying that they like prefer to do easy things but they also highly respect and they will not bet against Elon Musk it does a really tough impossible things for someone like Warren buffer to say okay we're going to invest in Tesla stock is that a good thing a neutral thing a Bad Thing what's that signal about Tesla when that happens well is it a good thing of course it's a good thing for us stockholders it will bring stability to the stock price because they buy such a big chunk that a lot of volatility in the market is just taken out because it's not going to be there anymore so that's a good thing the signal itself is a good thing because there are still millions of investors that copy whatever Warren Buffett does right and so he is he is still a leader for for those things um they're gonna come late but they're actually gonna work with management of Tesla from an early Point onwards when they went into Apple for three years they had work with management of Apple so I actually had an idea when uh Robin then home did that video a couple of weeks ago just before the shareholder meeting so it was around May 10th when they came out she said a crucial sentence that said we're working with institutional investors and yes this can be the fund managers this can be Pantry managers whatever but this can also be the Warren buffets of this world and so if it is Warren Buffett he will tell them we will come once share BuyBacks are on the horizon and why are they not now and I think they should not be now I think we have we need at the moment cash for all the opportunities that Tesla is doing for vertical integration and expansion there's just so much to do and so much money to allocate it at the same time you probably remember that q1 financials actually had no free cash flow that's right the only reason we had a little bit of free cash flow was because we had regular credits right and so the in those times you don't start by buying back cash right you rather wait one or two quarters too many where you're sure again that the the cash position fills up every quarter before you think about it so I think for 2023 BuyBacks is not a subject I mean six months prior right it was Elon who actually talked about it and said he actually recommends it but it's the board's decision I think the board was wise to say hold off let's see whether this recession comes let's get it through 2023 and then if cash really piles up the way Gary black sings because he's given us this calculation for a long time and there will be 60 70 billion dollars of cash lying around I think then the moment has come that BuyBacks will start and that Berkshire Hathaway is going to be interested that's true that's great Insight I'll get more cash we're now at a point where in the recent investor day Alexander also asked Elon a question yeah I did yes so Elon expresses interest to start advertising but for many like long-term Tesla fans it was almost like a sign of Pride that we have the world's best-selling car the model Y without any advertising so Tesla advertising is it a sign of defeat is it a sign of it becoming a more conventional company how do you think Tesla should advertise you guys I mean you're all Engineers right it drives me crazy because advertising is not a sign of defeat I know you all feel like that because you're like you know the 20 of engineering guys and there's some girls in there as well who understand the product who understand the genius behind it they just think the other 80 percent now just have to learn it and understand it and that's it but that's not how the world works right there are people out there that don't have the time not intelligence nor the interest to learn it yet they need a car and at the same time Tesla is now at a production rate where cause yes sell but don't sell like hot bread all the time anymore so by doing intelligent advertising you'll reach these people and you may not reach straight away all these 80 but you'll reach the more affluent among them the more intelligent about them and those that actually are interested by Tesla but don't really know how to approach the car so I do believe advertising is a great idea I was actually I was actually really astonished by elon's way of doing because at the shareholder meeting meet Kevin asked a question and he seemed surprised and then yeah let's do it what you all think and then obviously everybody was crazy right we went absolutely crazy and he was surprised that everybody went crazy right and then two three days later we learned that actually Tesla management had already discussed with Deutsche Bank research that they would do advertising so obviously something was in a pipeline they probably still needed elon's approval for it and this shareholder reaction carried it over the line um they will do the most Innovative advertising ever this will be clean this will be apple style you know very nice advertising this will be educational and I hope I've expressed it now for a couple of weeks it will also be brutal on the price for example one thing I was really pushing was doing a billboard in front of each Toyota dealer just with the model 3 and the price just with the model Y and the price because people don't understand yet that these cars these Tesla cars are so competitively priced now that they shouldn't go and buy their Toyota that's gonna devalue the next second but they should buy a Tesla and there's just not enough communication on the price yet price in North America specifically in California getting a model 3 below 30 000 US dollars in a country where you can walk away with zero percent cash down payment it is insane it is to not get a Tesla it's pretty insane yeah with that with advertising yes so some people are wondering there's so much good the Tesla is doing it's an amazing product roadmap it is yes it's got the Next Generation vehicle it's a self-engineering problem they're building it first in Mexico another Gigan Factory will be announced by the end of this year where do you think it's going to be I believe it's going to be in Asia Pacific to diversify the concentration risk in Giga Shanghai yes and because Mexico is really covering people say Mexico has a lot of free trade agreements you can sell for Asia as well that is true I believe that another potential location would either be South Korea or Thailand Thailand South Korea or Thailand both have strong domestic car markets one lesser known fact about Thailand is that Thailand's the world's second largest pickup truck Market the us then Thailand yeah so Thailand could also be a potential second cyber truck location yeah South Korea they're huge on EVS a lot of Teslas already the local supply chain talent pool is amazing yeah I always thought it was South Korea but in a couple of last days I mean I know you were on the road trip um India has popped up again so maybe that is another option but but my number one is still South Korea yes I agree I think that's a great choice so you've got good expansion you've got Tesla energy more Mega factories coming up good their first little Refinery groundbreaking done you've got the Tesla board which will take some years to materialize with elon's energy he can do so much but we want him to do something that's really unique what's the best use of elon's energy and brain power for Tesla in the next two years um that's a good question so first let me say I was actually very impressed by investor day because we saw for once this deep bench right we saw 16 people up there all of highest level very passionate about each segment they were representing and it was good to see for Tesla some new faces right I really appreciated that and I don't know whether you realize but since then so that was beginning of March for beginning of June no more talk about keyman risk right this subject has completely disappeared um so I do actually think operationally Tesla operated quite well while Enon was focusing on Twitter all these people out there oh we don't have a full-time CEO crap right look at the results um I do however believe there are couple of key characteristics that bring that Elon brings to the table that are still necessary one I think he just keeps everybody completely focused his presence his his concentration on the matters make that the whole teams around it are on their toes and I think that's always a good good sign I mean may not be comfortable for them but us as shareholders we do appreciate the second is um the development of the 4680 battery seems to lack something I don't understand it but I can clearly see that there is a delay and I mean they find replacement strategies but it's not going where they wanted it to be by now so I hope that him being back in the game as much as he is really puts the focus back on that development the most important for me though is everything related to AI I mean it's obviously it's passion it's where he strives he has the vision for it so I'm I'm convinced that that part FSD but also the bot the whole Vision um AI project is gonna be now in a stronger place it's gonna be you know a focus of everybody cyber truck launch groundbreaking in Mexico all those subjects are good but the bench convinced me that these things are covered right and I'm sure he will be bad they're back to make sure the Cyber truck is as perfect as it should be but but uh I don't think that's the best use of his time with all the other subjects on the table I agree it's a amazing bench someone at home zoo is now active on Twitter you've got Andrew backlino engineering efforts yeah you've got again uh Tesla co-founder who came back to the court nominator to the board of directors so there's a lot of strong signs and the key memories is a lot lower so Elon what I'm hearing is really putting the fire into everyone's belly what's the mission let's do this let's turn the impossible to the merely late exactly so that's his gift it is it is and he is just Relentless right yes imagine it is 2030 Tesla stock is now three thousand dollars three thousand okay what's next for Alexandra four thousand yeah I mean I don't I honestly don't know whether I could even sell I mean if I would need the money for my daily life of course I would yeah but there's so much more to come I don't you know I I don't think in Horizon 2030 I we'll see we'll see where we're then but it's certainly not a stock I would like to get out of actually in between then we may see some other investment opportunities materialized yes whether it's starlink Twitter AI yeah yeah SpaceX so all those are adjacent companies is that something that you think about as an investor yes I do um it is true I mean first of all I think about it differently first the the one thing is I had a discussion a couple of days ago with people about whether uh it is fair I don't like the word but let's just use it um that Elon put the AI the truth GPT into x.com rather than into into a Tesla now first of all I think we're entitled to nothing we're having the greatest company in the world the bot was not automatically within Tesla yet we have it so what are we to complain about I also believe Tesla is all about Vision AI right it's all about real life projecting taking information and being able to react to these um language is a different subject of course it correlates but it is a different theme all around and I think language AI does as much get information and uh and the right data to produce from Twitter than it would from Tesla so I think X is actually there to do the bridge right get information from Twitter get it to Tesla get Vision information from Tesla get into X so um if I could invest in X I would no doubt about it I I would hope that I had new money rather than having to sell Tesla for it but it is going to be one neuralink is for me something I don't measure yet I don't understand I'm sure this is going to be great but I have no understanding of it um SpaceX I had I was invited to um to participate and I decided then not to do it I preferred staying in Tesla so I think it's always an Arbitrage in which of the companies you believe more at that particular moment that's right so let us know down in the comments which ones would you invest in it all were available for retail investors Alexandra I'm very inspired by your constant Mission just to inspire us oh thank you there's been so much fun over the years I think it'll be less now as again it becomes more mainstream Tesla as part that's just partnership with Ford isn't just about supercharger Network it's about changing the relationship of the car companies that they're not going to just on Tesla because they could be potential business partners yes they need Tesla advertising also means they may make more friends in media you're not going to please everyone but you're going to have a few more friends well they sure will want the money so believe me they're gonna be much nicer for sure so it almost feels like pastel wants that nerdy kid that no one wanted to talk to or you're a teenager now yeah and now it's blossoming into exactly something else it is it is but I mean that's nice to watch and there are still many years to come before it becomes an Old Gentleman believe me we still have way to go so here we go well Tesla age like fine wine it will please follow and also subscribe to Alexandra on Twitter she's got an amazing sub stack as well lots of great insights she's in amazing podcast with the noise makers before that yeah she's going to be probably you see her a lot more Tesla events one of the panel speakers next month yes I'll take over yeah right before the keynote speaker May musk yes click subscribe to see updated the more videos on Tesla it's been a joy thank you for seeing you again bye-bye Cara what's your favorite part about Alexandra's house well there you go
댓글 0