저자: Chase · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 항공주 투자 역사와 현재 포지션을 정리한 영상으로, 버핏의 항공주 투자는 과거 실패 후 재진입해 현재 대형 항공사에 큰 지분을 보유한 것으로 소개된다. 1989년 US에어(USAir)에 3억5800만 달러를 투자했으나 배당 지연 등으로 버핏과 멍거는 실수라고 평가했다. 이후 1997~1998년 실적 개선으로 배당이 재개되고 1998년 대출금을 주식으로 상환받으며 총 약 2배 수익을 거두고 투자를 정리했다. 2013년 이후 항공업계는 합병으로 경쟁사가 줄어 과점 구조가 되었고, 영상은 이것이 수익성 개선의 원인이라고 설명한다. 버핏은 2013년 주주총회에서 업계 수익성 개선에 회의적이었다고 언급된다. 2017년 버핏은 아메리칸, 델타, 유나이티드, 사우스웨스트에 수십억 달러 규모로 투자했으나 주주총회에서는 열정적이지 않았다고 전해진다. 영상은 말과 행동이 다르다고 보며 버핏이 실제로는 강세 입장이라고 해석한다. 2018년 3분기 버핏은 사우스웨스트와 아메리칸 일부를 매도하고 유나이티드 지분도 일부 줄였으나, 델타 주식은 크게 매수했다고 소개된다. 영상은 버핏이 항공주를 과점 구조의 장기 해자가 있는 '하늘의 철도주'로 보는 것 같다고 추측한다. 영상 제작자는 이 추측이 개인 의견이며 시청자가 직접 조사할 것을 권한다. 직접적인 종목 가격 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
what is going on guys my name is chase and welcome back to intelligent money investing and today we have a video I'm really excited about we're gonna be discussing the Warren Buffett position in Airlines and Berkshire Hathaway's overall position in Airlines this is gonna take us through the entire timeline all the way from 1994 all the way to what they're the moves they're making just now so it's gonna be a really interesting video I think for you guys and I just wanna jump right into this make sure to hit that like button if you enjoy and subscribe for more if you haven't already and without further ado let us just get right into this so the first ever move he made with a airline investment we know that Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett are famous for their own airline positions he owns about 10% of each of the major airlines like about 6 to 10% I'm gonna be going over those positions at near the end of the video so definitely make sure to stick around and see the moves he's been making on those whether he thinks they're a good buy right now but he owns about 8 to 10 percent of the major airlines so basically he is a major major shareholder in those and he's extremely bullish in those positions so it's definitely something to think about but this takes us all the way back to 1989 where he made a three hundred fifty eight million dollar investment in US air for big stakes in the country's largest airline in 2000 this is just kind of going over the thing but he did go and call the industry a death trap for investors back in the day but really he is one of the biggest investors in it right now so it's really interesting but let's just go right into US air and when he's talking about this 358 million dollar investment at the very beginning him and his partner Charlie Munger were very against it at the start well they were very negative on it because they were missing payments that were due to Berkshire Hathaway and calling it a huge mistake we'll see how that ends up at the end of his investment as we go through this timeline but let's start reading through this so Berkshire Hathaway's loaning us air in the form of purchase a preferred stock was almost five years old and per Sharath wouldn't warren buffett the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway told the 1994 shareholders meeting it was a deal that he should not have made he held out hope however that the airline CEO would be able to cut cost knowledge would be an extraordinarily tough negotiating job so essentially a Warren Buffett made a big investment and USAir was not paying their money back to the shareholders and Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were obviously not very happy about that in 1996 that USAir investment did improve about two years later he was Sarah had a new CEO and a brighter outlook it also still had its out of line cost Buffett said Ted at his 1996 shareholder meeting that the investment looked considerably better than it did before but it was still a mistake that Charlie Munger was giving him a hard time about in this video I'm definitely gonna link this down in the description I suggest you go through and watch these videos because especially when you're looking at old Warren Buffett videos really his philosophy has not changed since the beginning of his career to where he stopped what he's talking about now it's really interesting to see if you stick with this very basic philosophy that he has that you can do get pretty good for performance in the markets and invest in companies that are gonna be strong in the long run so in 1997 he praises the CEOs for a terrific job by 1997 the investment was looking even better Buffett gave credit to Stephen wolf the airline CEO for improving the financial performance and catching up with scheduled dividend payments to Berkshire so essentially they had paid them back that money that Burchard that they were late on to Berkshire Hathaway so they were starting to make up for their poor performance before Buffett hoped that wolf might even be able to mollify and nullify his mistake when they were having a hard time in 1998 he bailed out with no desire to jump back in on the airline stocks in early 1998 my birth year actually with help from a booming stock price US Airways paid back his 358 million dollar loan with common shares that were sold through 574 million Buffett's mistake had also brought in 240 million dollars in dividends three three months later Buffett told shareholders Berkshire Hathaway would not rule out making another airline loan but it wasn't interested in buying the airline's common stock which is so a huge mistake by Buffett ended up paying out huge dividends over 240 million and over about about two hundred million dollars in capital appreciation so that's not that's really not not too bad of an investment over two hundred percent return at about what is that what is that nine years it's a it's not too shabby at all especially considering that they doubled their money and it was an investment that they pretty much were writing off as something that might go bankrupt might go to zero instead they doubled their money and got out he got a ton of money back in dividends and had a tunnel capital appreciation so now we get a fifteen years later where with reduced competition this is in 2013 15 years later following two bankruptcies in a river reverse merger with American West US Airways was prepping to combine with American Airways one of a series of mergers that sharply reduced the number of competing carriers so essentially this was creating about a duopoly where there was only a three a few big airlines which would reduce the competition and increase margins because there wasn't much less competition that the airlines weren't competing with each other in order to knock each other out of the market now there with only three or four big airlines in the u.s.
they're able to raise their prices who raised their margin and actually make a profit and not be at risk of going bankrupt as Orin Buffett warned of at the 2013 shareholders meeting Buffett was skeptical when asked about the industry's improved profitability and then in 2017 Berkshire puts billions in with Airlines but Buffett remembers the bankruptcy is just three years later Berkshire surprised the investment world by taking multi billion-dollar stakes in American Delta United and Southwest but at the 2017 shareholder meeting Buffett didn't sound very enthusiastic about it so like I said you guys should definitely go through and watch these videos kind of see exactly what he has to say he sounds when it sounds like in these videos because I have watched them all it sounds like he's pretty bearish on these positions but obviously through his actions it shows these very bullish moving his positions up to a debt ten percent and what I should also tell you guys is that 10% is pretty much his limit for when he his controlling company is that he's not trying to take control of I believe he said he said multiple times that he doesn't want to go over ten percent any of these companies so that's just an interesting thing to note that he's pretty much at his tab and is buying it largely as much as he can in a lot of these stocks so then I want to go through and show you guys the positions that he has in these companies so the ones that I found here are American Delta and Southwest as you guys can see this is a list of Berkshire Hathaway's holdings I'm gonna go ahead and oh shoot I just messed that up all right we're going back to here we're looking for here Southwest we gotta go back up here and sort by sector okay one moment here Delta okay so here's American Delta and Southwest so for American Airlines he owns four point two four percent of the company with about a billion dollar holding for Delta he holds about eight point two one percent of the company with about a three billion dollar holding and for Southwest he owns about eight point one percent of the company worth about 3.2 billion so obviously those are astronomically large positions that the average guy cannot cannot afford to be in but obviously it's also very large for the bursar portfolio as well so this is not an investment he's taking lightly this is something he's keeping an eye on and he's made moves as recently as quarter three on these positions so this is this is an article of his core detailing his quarter three moves and this paragraph kind of details how in quarter three of 2018 he shaved his Southwest Airlines position by about roughly one percent about two percent of his shares in American Airlines were unloaded and Berkshire also unloaded 2.6 percent of his United Continental Holdings as well but obviously that's not a huge amount he may have been shaving to free up capital for other positions he may have been shaving that because you thought it was gonna be a little bit overvalued and was in its gonna buy back in later but another thing to note is that he really loaded up on Delta stock in the last quarter as well so it really this is pretty much a wash in terms capital in the industry so but it really personifies that brochure is very bullish on this position and what I think this comes down to is that picture is a big investor and companies that it thinks is gonna be profitable for a long time has a big moat and obviously with this kind of duopoly that has been formed with only a few big airlines that are able to compete in this market because of the high fixed costs of getting into the market and how much money in capital it takes to get in that Berkshire is pretty set on thinking that these companies are prepare lis safe and it kind of figured out the formula in order to be profitable in the airline's market so they're very bullish on these and I think that they are kind of look at them a little bit like the rail like the rarer railroad stocks back in the day that they invested so heavily in Berkshire outright owns many railroad stocks and railroad companies and obviously those are more for moving goods but also important for moving people and now that it's moved to Airlines I believe that he might view these as the railroads of the air but that's just speculation on my behalf I definitely encourage you guys to do your own research and come up with your own thesis 'iz and I'd love to debate you guys about those in the comments down below so if you enjoyed this video please slap a like on it subscribe if you haven't already and ring that notification bell to get notified every time I do put a video up on YouTube thank you guys for so much for watching and I will see you guys in the next one thank you so much
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