저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 최근 경고를 정리한 해설 영상으로, 2022년 경기침체와 주식시장 폭락 가능성을 강조한다. 핵심 주장: 버리는 과거 서브프라임 CDS, 게임스탑 투자, 테슬라 풋옵션 등에서 대체로 1~2년 일찍 움직였으며, 현재 주식시장 하락이 아직 절반 정도 왔다고 본다. 과거 이력: 2005년 서브프라임 CDS 6000만 달러 투자로 주택시장 붕괴 시 약 1억 달러 수익(투자자 기준 7억 달러), 2019년 게임스탑 주당 약 5.52달러 매수 후 2021년 큰 수익 가능성, 2021년 테슬라 풋옵션 보유 후 포지션 축소. 거시 경고: 2021년 2월 인플레이션과 과도한 정부 부양에 대해 경고했으며, 당시 금융권 다수는 낙관적이었음. 2022년 6월 13일 트윗과 6월 30일 발언에서 경기침체 사이클이 절반 정도 왔고 이후 이익 감소(earnings compression) 단계가 남았다고 주장. 밸류에이션 논리: S&P500 PER 29.3배는 현대 평균 19.6배보다 높아 과대평가 상태. PER 16배 기준 S&P500 2800포인트 수준 가능성을 시사. 경기침체 확인: 미국 2분기 GDP 마이너스 0.9%로 2분기 연속 마이너스 성장, 공식 침체 진입으로 해설. 1분기는 -1.6%. 리스크/조건: 시장 붕괴는 고점 대비 50% 이상 하락으로 정의. 하락 베팅 방법으로 S&P500 공매도나 인버스 ETF 언급. 강세 반등은 하락장에서 크게 나타날 수 있음을 경고. 예측 시점: 버리는 약 16개월 전부터 이를 생각해 왔으며, 폭락 시점은 2022년 하반기로 해석.
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michael berry's latest warning for the 2022 recession and stock market crash well michael bury is the founder of scion capital llc a fund he managed during the great financial crisis of 2008 reaping billions of dollars in gains for his customers when the american housing market collapsed overall a fantastic investor however he has something shocking to say bet you want to know right although he says a lot through his tweets and social media engagement if you aren't active there no worries we've got you so welcome back to finance insights and if you're interested in stock related updates and news this video is for you so stay tuned burry is usually a year or two early in his trades and gets out a few months early but he's usually right in a significant way this holds true regardless of whether it was his early value stock picks legendary short mortgage loans trade gamestop deep value investment in 2020 or tesla short in 2021 the following are some examples from his past work on may 19 2005 michael brewery completed his first transactions involving subprime mortgages he purchased credit default swaps from deutsche bank in the amount of 60 million dollars putting 10 million on each of six different bonds when his wager against the housing market was successful he was able to sell all of them by april of 2008 resulting in a profit of 100 million dollars for himself and 700 million dollars for his investors in the month of august 2019 scion capital made the announcement that it has purchased three million shares of gaming and electronics retailer gamestop for a total value of 16.56 million dollars this indicates that burri purchased gamestop stock at an average price of roughly 5.52 cents per share when he was accumulating shares despite the fact that he did not profit from the exponential rising game stop stock to 438 dollars per share in january 2021 he was able to build a position in the stock when prices were in the single digits which means that he probably doubled tripled or even quadrupled his money by the time he sold his shares in the fourth quarter of 2020.
we do not know when he left the game during the fourth quarter but we do know that he was not present for any part of the run-up that wall street vets in reddit 2021 experienced he came very close to pulling off the ultimate big shot and if christian bale had been available again they would have had to film a new movie because a triple digit return on investment is the goal of a deep value investor which is the major methodology that he uses and he was probably extremely thrilled to have made such a return on his accident 2020.
according to his most recent 13 f filing for the quarter ending on september 30th 2021 it appears that he has given up on and left his substantial positions in tesla puts an arc put and he has significantly reduced the amount of stock he is holding he was convinced that hyperinflation would eventually materialize but in the short term his bearish stock wagers kept losing money which forced him to withdraw his investment capital due to the position size and leverage of the put options he was extremely near to having another two enormous massive short positions payoff exponentially but he was just too early let's take a look at some of the recent predictions buries made and what he is seeing on a macroeconomic level now that we've established how accurate he typically is and how far ahead of the curve he typically is tweet from michael bury with a caution on the 19th of february 2021 bury started sending the alarm about inflation and excessive government stimulus when he switched to a negative outlook at the beginning of 2021 he was in the minority since the majority of people in the financial sector were positive and the majority of central banks and politicians believed inflation was just temporary at the time that he issued his warning about inflation it was still below the target rate of 2 percent set by the federal reserve in the tweet that can be found below michael bury appears to be making a prediction that the market will crash in late 2022.
the tweet was published on june 13 2022 after the most recent bulk of the downward trend on stock charts which indicates that he anticipates further decline this year his prediction recently came up on june 30th of 2022 that we are only halfway through the recessionary cycle even though the stock market had pe multiple compression and the next step would be earnings compression this prediction was in response to the fact that the stock market had experienced earnings compression this indicates that he may be predicting that the current bearer market's barely halfway through its course based on a p e ratio of 16 that has been considered historically standard for the stock market this could indicate that the s p 500 will trade for around 2 800 points during a recession first the pe multiple contracts and earning contracts this is what beri is warning about and it's exactly what happened on thursday where the united states officially entered a recession with a second consecutive negative gdp of minus 0.90 for q2 after the gdp for the preceding quarter was minus 1.6 percent the price to earnings multiple is a type of investor sentiment that shows how much value investors are willing to put on the current earnings of a company based on what they will be worth in the future looking at potential growth it shows how much value investors are willing to put on the current earnings of a company this is true for both individual businesses analyzing their predicted growth in sales revenue and earnings as well as the competitive environment and it's also true for the equity market as a whole as an asset class consider the p e ratio in the following way one method for determining investor sentiment is the following price equals earnings times multiple investors will bid up prices based on results more aggressively and significantly the more optimistic and upbeat the economic outlook is as the macroeconomic climate becomes more unfavorable the price to earnings ratio will compress and prices will fall before earnings will decline the market already accounts for an anticipated decline in profits the fundamental market cycle begins with a fall in the price to earnings ratio of the stock market and then it moves on to the beginning of a loss in earnings according to bury we are only in the first phase of the collapse in valuation and the second phase of the decline in profits is not even started yet as the p e ratio on the stock market moves back toward more of its historical norm he anticipates further losses ahead the current p e ratio for the s p 500 index over the past 10 years is 29.3 this is 1.2 standard deviations above the modern era average for the p e ratio multiple which places the current p e ratio at a level that is 46 above the modern era market average of 19.6 when viewed from a fundamental perspective the market's overvalued this chart illustrates the p e ratio's historic trend over time the definition of a market collapse is the down of at least 50 percent from its previous high and this is the event that he seems to be alluding to throughout his tweets about 16 months ago he started thinking about this and tweeting about it therefore the time range in which this will take place is in the second part of 2022 be mindful that the most significant price increases occur during down markets how does one profit from a falling market by shorting it selling a stock index short such as the s p 500 index is the simplest way to short a market crash this can be done by borrowing shares of an exchange-traded fund or etf in order to sell them and then buying them back later at a lower price this is the part where i explained the procedure when looking at a chart a bear market's regarded to have started when prices have fallen by more than 20 percent from their highest point when prices recovered to the point where they are down from their previous high by less than 20 percent the market's said to have emerged from a bear market so what exactly is a crash in the market a reduction in the price of more than 50 percent from its previous high is regarded to be a market crash of the kind that michael bury is predicting as soon as a price crosses above the important 200-day moving average line on a chart it is commonly believed that a market meltdown may finally be finished his prediction of a market crash is founded on the excessive issuance of fiat currencies disrupted supply networks and general macroeconomic weakness around the world as a result of the poor management of market economies all over the world hey that's going to do it for today's video we thank you so much for watching please make sure you like share and subscribe for more amazing content have a great rest of your day and we'll look for you in our next video thanks for watching
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