저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 11월 4일 대선 개표 중 트럼프가 승리를 주장하며 개표 중단·대법원 소송을 언급. 우편투표는 민주당 성향이 강해 개표가 진행될수록 격차가 줄 수 있다고 설명. 장외 시간 미국 주식은 대선 결과 불확실 속에서도 상승(트럼프 재선 가능성 반영, 기업세율 인하 기대), 엔페이즈만 하락. 긴 개표로 추가 경기부양책(스티뮬러스) 협상은 지연될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here the contested election is essentially here despite all evidence indicating that a contested election was not very likely we are looking at the unlikely scenario of a contested election in fact what we're going to do in this video is take a look at what donald trump just said and then we're going to talk about the impact of this what this means especially to stocks and stimulus let's get right into the donald trump clip so let's go ahead and pull that up and let's get over and on into this just make sure sign up 'll need life insurance for this one so get that in as little as five minutes as well links down below here we go for donald trump because you know what happened they knew they couldn't win so they said let's go to court and did i predict this newt did i say this i've been saying this from the day i heard they were going to send out tens of millions of ballots i said exactly because either they were going to win or if they didn't win they'll take us to court this is a fraud on the american public this is an embarrassment to our country now quick note i'm not playing all of the other information where he talks about how far ahead he is in pennsylvania and florida and texas and some of the other states and in fairness to him accurately at the time that he gave this discussion or this sort of press conference hey he was accurately that far ahead but we're gonna talk about the uh the issue as to what's going on in just a moment and then the impact of it let's just finish here and see what donald trump says about a victory or waiting we were getting ready to win this election frankly we did win this election so our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation this is a very big moment this is a major fraud in our nation we want the law to be used in a proper manner so we'll be going to the u.s supreme court we want all voting to stop we don't want them to find any ballots at four o'clock in the morning and add them to the list okay it's it's a very sad it's a very sad moment to me this is a very sad moment and we will win this and we as far as i'm concerned we already have foreign so i just want to thank you okay so that's donald trump you heard him basically calling what's happening now the contested election a fraud willing to take this fight to the supreme court which they'll have to find an avenue to get there it's not as easy as showing up at the supreme court of course but also essentially declaring victory at this point in time now obviously we know the election is not over biden and democrats still believe they can win once the vote by mail ballots come in and so here's basically a quick background on what's going on and then let's talk stocks and let's talk stimulus so basically when people mail in a ballot with their vote and it gets postmarked that is the you know the post office got it they put a little stamp on it it was processed okay great now it's going to go into transit well then it's postmarked well those ballots tend to skew towards democrats that is democrats tend to be more likely to mail them in around 53 percent of the time you get democrat of voters with these mail-in ballots now on the flip side when you look at in-person voting you get around 60 percent of people in in-person voting voting for trump or republicans and this is a problem because it means you really have more republican votes being represented at the time of donald trump's you know press conference at the white house in the east wing but you don't yet have all the mail-in ballots in because you've got some states that have basically been hoarding these mail-in ballots for weeks and they refused to count them until today election day well i guess yesterday was election day given that i'm recording this in the am hours here on november 4th already and the sun's going to come up very soon here uh this has been pretty intense but anyway uh specifically states like pennsylvania they did not start counting ballots until today while florida has already been counting ballots for two weeks and that's why they're already over 95 reported so this puts us in a place where we could be waiting for two to three days for states like pennsylvania and michigan to report all of the remaining ballots that they have but donald trump has now declared that it would be fraudulent to essentially continue to count these ballots and now there's a difference here right there's voting and then there's counting votes that have already been cast so it's kind of like okay like do we keep counting votes as long as they were postmarked by the third i don't know this is now where we're the supreme court might end up having to get involved in this and remember the supreme court is 6-3 in favor of republicans now donald trump also publicly said that he would not declare victory that he would let you know the experts call the election but privately he told colleagues that if he was close he would come out and declare victory well folks you just saw him declare victory mike pence came up afterwards and tried to backpedal a little bit and say that we're on the road to victory that's what mike pence said about the trump uh you know election here the re-election campaign uh but the reality is this really creates issues now now we're in a place of okay now we're going down contested election road and lawsuit road and when will this end is this going to end by friday will it end by next week is it going to end by january it'll be interesting now and so let's now talk about some reactions that we've got going on let's talk about stocks and let's talk about stimulus and some short-term things that we know ordinarily for stocks we'd think that a contested election is bad but the stock market is actually rallying in pre-market hours right now which remember you could get weeble and you could get these pre-market hours as well let's go ahead and pull it up right now so uh you can see here it's 1 48 am on november 4th in california and here are your pre-market trades a lot of the market i mean almost the entire market is green the only thing that's really slapped here is end phase and what you've really got here is this shift to the market going oh my gosh we could actually have a trump election see the market was pricing in a biden victory but we actually got some insane numbers from the trump campaign i mean the fact that texas uh was was so heavy for trump uh which biden almost flipped in the initial readings this they sort of call that the biden mirage or the trump mirage when you get this initial wave going one way or another uh but uh but yeah trump held texas and florida and he's doing very well in states like michigan pennsylvania and some of these other important ones so these are things we got to pay attention to but the market's like basically going oh my gosh trump could actually win which means there's actually a chance we won't see corporate tax rates go up from 21 where they are now to 28 in fact trump might cut them a few months ago he said corporate tax rates might go down to 15 well and uh as recently as about four weeks ago he said he'd consider reducing corporate tax rates to 20 down yeah just one percentage point but anyway look at the market i mean it's very very very green and these are all of the stocks that we generally talk about whether it's in my courses or here on the channel the only one that's really suffering here is end phase in the pre-market hours that's potentially because uh you know and faze i think was a big recipient of or would have been a big recipient of a biden win they work with solar products micro inverters i actually have enphase micro inverters on my roof right here uh lyft and uber had a huge win in california so these are not uh indicative of like the company all of a sudden doing like crazy better or whatever this is just a sign of their win in california which is actually a really good precedent for the rest of the country that uber and lyft will not be required to payroll their gig workers after all that's the point of being a gig worker you set your own hours and and then the company doesn't pay payroll taxes for you you pay your payroll taxes yourself uh but i mean look at this we got zoom up five percent fastly four and a half percent a lot of these tech stocks that sold off etsy four percent a peloton's up 3.8 percent even neo uh and the chinese yuan uh the renminbi is sold off as soon as it looked like oh my gosh the trump might have a chance of winning here it's and when i say sold off i mean when currency sells off it's like half percent of a decline uh but instead at the same time you get you got the dollar strengthening compared to the chinese uh currency you've got neo stock going up uh which is obviously a chinese company so you've got these sort of mixed messages here and at one point you even had the nasdaq shoot up so high in pre-market trading or in futures trading that they almost put a hold on futures trading so you've got really an exuberant stock market as a reaction here which is very very very interesting now what does this all mean for stimulus so on stimulus well this is actually interesting see a contested election is very bad for stimulus it means we don't have answers right and we want answers every day that we're clueless about what the result of the election is going to be is not only a day that we're clueless but it's also a day that we're not negotiating a stimulus deal during the lame duck session so in other words we are literally now in this weird holding pattern where once again the regular people of america get screwed into having to wait for stimulus but the stock market is soaring on the potential that trump might actually get re-elected here so uh and and that was a surprise to the stock market because most i mean here we go again almost all of the polls were saying biden's gonna win that there's only a 10 chance that trump's gonna win you look at the betting odds and the betting odds were like 33 percent trump and like 47 i'm sorry 67 biden like it was supposed to be abiding win here now it could still be depending on how these vote by mail ballots come in but uh folks wow the market is reacting very excitedly about this good news for the market not good if you were looking for a buying opportunity in the market bad news for stimulus let's see how this all evolves i'm going to go to sleep now thanks so much for watching and we'll see you in the morning thanks bye you
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