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마이클 버리가 S&P500과 나스닥에 약 16억 달러 규모 풋옵션 숏을 쌓았다는 13F 보도를 근거로, 채널 진행자는 시장 급락 가능성에 대비해 현금을 따로 두고 DCA로 배당주·성장주를 나눠 매수하자고 제안한다. 버리의 숏 포지션: 2023년 2분기 말 기준 SPY·QQQ 풋옵션 대규모 보유, 명목 약 16억 달러로 소개된다. 과거 2008년 서브프라임 숏으로 큰 수익을 낸 이력이 강조된다. S&P500 흐름: 2022년 1월 고점 4800 부근에서 2022년 10월 3500 부근까지 약 27% 하락했다고 설명한다. 조정은 보통 5~10% 수준이라고 덧붙인다. 개별 종목 사례: 테슬라는 바닥 대비 약 58% 하락 사례로 언급. 3M은 고점 약 211달러에서 10월 약 111~125달러로 40~45% 하락했고, 배당수익률이 약 3%에서 약 6%로 올라갔다고 설명한다. 금리와 연준: 연준 의사록이 추가 금리 인상 또는 고금리 장기 유지에 무게를 둔 것으로 해석하며, 이것이 수요 억제와 자본지출 축소로 이어져 주가 하락 요인이 된다고 본다. 진행자 전망: S&P500은 8~9월 계절적 약세 구간에서 4351 부근까지 조정 가능성을 제시하며, 극단적으로는 4250까지 열어둔다. 다만 대폭락은 가능성이 낮고 올해 안에는 나오기 어렵다고 본다. 진행자는 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시하며, 배당만이 아닌 전체 투자 맥락을 강조한다.
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thank you okay ladies and gentlemen welcome back today I am going to be bringing you guys The Big Short Mr legendary Trader himself of 2008 Michael burry and what he has done recently and how the market has reacted to it you guys definitely don't want to miss this make sure you watch until the end of the video because there's a lot of great content here and well you know we all want our dividend portfolios to grow so understanding how these things work is extremely important to that so here we go Michael Brewery recently um actually at First let's talk about who Michael burry is so Michael Berry is um basically managing what's referred to as Scion Asset Management Group Mr Brewery is the guy that's responsible for shorting the 2008 subprime mortgage crash before it even took place a lot of people say he actually got in early and a lot of investors that had invested money with him were getting mad at him because they thought that the markets were just going to keep going up and they were going to lose their money and if you guys know anything about shorting the market if you short something the Lost potential is infinite it's not like if you long something then your cost basis goes to zero you could actually lose more than your initial investment Capital if you short something and it goes against you and you keep holding that short so it's understandable why investors were freaked out about this but over time Michael Bureau is short played out for those of you guys who have seen the movie The Big Short with Christian Bale you know what I'm talking about here but this guy is legendary for his massive short trade in which I think he made like a 100 million dollar net worth or something on the real estate crash back in 2008.
so he's at it again from the look of it he actually just I'm gonna go ahead and scroll down here so you guys can see this uh The Firm just filed its f-13f which details its Holdings as of the end of the second quarter ended June 30th it revealed big bets against the spy and QQQ which is the equivalent of the S P 500 and the NASDAQ for those of you that don't know using put options with a national 1.6 billion again guys billion with a B dollar value and here's what it could mean so they go into all this information I will go ahead and leave the link down below so you guys can read this for yourself if you're interested um again it states here uh his investors thought the play was Reckless and he endured vicious criticism up until it eventually paid off on the housing market crashed in 2008 Prairie took home an estimated 100 billion dollars and science investors pocketed a whopping 700 million so he got in early and ultimately the market ended up crashing and I'm going to explain why this is so so significant to Dividend investors and anybody who's involved in the markets here in a minute so uh here's another link that I'll leave in the video it describes Who The Big Short investor is known for predicting basically huge Market crashes he's pretty much a bear who has infinite patience and is willing to wait for the market to give like massive red flag warnings to just dump on everybody and that's when he loads the boat on all these short positions and well he was right in 2008 so a lot of people that invest are probably taking this pretty seriously I can imagine I myself am too which is why I'm making a video on it so if we go over here to whalewisdom.com again I'll leave this in the link so you can look at it you can see that um this is all of their current Holdings as of their most recent 13f filing uh and quarter one owned so basically um I'm not I'm not really sure exactly what this means they either owned the shares in q1 and it was reported in Q2 or they own them in Q2 and it was reported in Q2 I'm not really sure which but um from what you guys can see here I mean this is this is an insane amount of money guys this is 1.6 billion dollars he has puts of two million option puts on both the spy and the QQQ no I don't know a whole lot about options personally I plan on starting to learn in October but what I will tell you about options is I understand this much okay calls are for options traders that expect prices of the underlying security to go up or in this case an index I guess it would be and puts our Med for Traders investors who expect the price of whatever it is they're placing a put on to go down this dude has put probably the Lion's Share of their capital on the line to short this Market currently this is a big deal so um what does it mean for dividend investors and for investors who are looking to make profit and or passive income well I can tell you guys right here when the prices went all the way down here from the January 2022 Peak at 4800 on the Spy down to 3500 at the bottom at October 2022 when it was at 3500 which is a humongous drop of about 27 that's a big drop for the s p a correction is considered to be between 5 to 10 percent that's a normal pullback that happens maybe once or twice a year so you can understand just how significant that move was a lot of these stocks were at absolutely Dirt Cheap rock bottom prices and I'm going to take a look at a couple here that you guys can actually see so let's take a look at Tesla I know Tesla is not a technically a dividend paying stock but from what you can see uh Tesla was around 170 a share at roughly the bottom of the s p drop so that was about a 58 drop on that you take a look at maybe something like um I'm trying to think of what might be another good play here that maybe had some massive downside okay so maybe not Coca-Cola um take a look at maybe something like uh hold on let me scroll through this list real quick see if I can find something here that you guys can look at so okay so we'll take a look at 3M as an example that would probably be a pretty good one right there so aside from the legal litigations that 3M is having as you guys can see here uh 3M from its peak right before the market peaked out was at about 211 a share and in October it was right around 125 dollars to a hundred and eleven dollars a share so about a 40 to 45 drop so in terms of dividends and how this works when the share prices of these companies go down the dividend yield of the company goes up okay so uh 3m's dividend currently is at about six percent if it was all the way up here it would only be about three percent so what does that mean in terms of buying dividend paying stocks and how you can stretch your money further to create more passive income with the same capital or even less capital so the price and the yield are inversely correlated if the shares are high the yield's going to be low and if the shares are low the yield is going to be high so if I wanted to put a hundred dollars into this thing when it was at 107 a share I'd get about one share of it if I wanted to put a hundred dollars into this thing at 200 a share I don't think at half a share which means I would get half about about half of the yield at the top so if I want to put 200 a share in 3M at the bottom here I'd get two shares which means twice as much passive income and I would only get one share up here so my money would have half of the purchasing power in terms of producing passive income now Michael Brewery was not wrong back in 2008 he eventually ended up being right um the FED media minutes just came out today they pretty much stated that they intend to possibly raise more rates maybe keep them higher for longer um they sounded pretty hawkish during the meeting minutes which means that you know the the longer that they keep the rates up the more it crushes demand and slows down the economy and then these companies have less um less Capital to work with they have to tighten up on their Capital expenditures and you know stocks go down and that's typically how it works so Michael Brewery is kind of predicting by putting his money where his mouth is he's predicting this huge crash to come so in short guys if the crash comes um me personally I'm gonna tell you right now what I'm doing I'm not giving Financial advice here but what I would do if a crash were to come is I would have a set amount of cash on the side to make sure that it could DCA into the crash because there's no telling how long it could be and I would be DCA and into positions that provide either great Capital return or great passive income along the way that mounts up over time and I would be reinvesting the dividends then I got paid every month and a set portion of my capital on the side or income on the side while still maintaining that certain cash amount throughout the entire time that's what I would do so if you guys want to build more passive income along the way and the market crashes the market is a perfect opportunity to buy a lot of these stocks or ETFs or funds or rates or whatever it is you're into yield Max funds clip so and so on or growth stocks like Tesla um you know with the potential to make absolutely astronomical passive income and or gains along the way this is another potential Black Swan event that could actually end up leading the markets to sell off is it going to sell off honestly I don't I don't think that's very likely that we're going to see a humongous crash um if we do we're probably not going to see it this year I'll reiterate one more time what my expectations are for the S P 500 going forward August and September as you know is the most bearish times of the year historically speaking for the last 50 years the most bearish months in the year for the stock market has always been August and September so here's kind of what my expectations are ever since we hit 4 600 from a technical perspective from what you guys can see here we've sold off so we've sold off for three weeks straight again seasonality is pretty standard for the markets during August and September I expect to pull back to as much as 43.51 at the absolute lowest um if I were to be really generous here and say we're going to pull back even further than that I would say maybe we might pull back all the way here down to 42.50 and then head higher from there which lines up almost perfectly with this previous resistance turn support I don't expect us to go lower than that but you never know things happen I mean the CV dump happened and nobody saw that coming right so anyways hope this was helpful hope you guys enjoyed this video it was a little bit longer because there's a lot for me to explain in here um you know investing is about a lot more than just collecting dividends dividends is one very small fragmentation of the overall investing community so anyways I gotta go you all have a great day and a great weekend and please comment rate and subscribe I will see you all later peace
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