저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
영상 제작자는 Marc Faber가 인도 시장이 현 시점에서 약 20% 하락할 수 있으며 현금 보유가 낫다고 보았다고 전한다. 인도 시장 밸류에이션이 여전히 비싸고 향후 실적 증가가 기대에 못 미칠 것이라는 논리다. AI·반도체 관련 과도한 기대도 경고 대상이다. 영상 제작자는 현재 시장이 고점 대비 10% 미만 하락이라 약세장(20% 하락) 정의에는 못 미친다고 설명한다. 귀금속은 긍정적으로 언급된 적이 있으나 주식에는 대체로 부정적이라는 맥락도 소개한다.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, greetings to all. Friend , if we discuss today's topic, then we all have seen that the bear market has automatically attacked again. And friend, in the words of the Indian market, especially the Indian market, he said that there can be a downfall of up to 20%from this point. And he said that it is better that you stay in cash .
He said this in his report. And he has discussed this in this regard at the present time. Along with this, he also said that when the market falls down at this point, the bear market will start. Now many people will say that the bear market has been going on for the last one and a half to two years, is it going on?
Friend, it is not a bear market. Actually, if you check here, how much the market is going on now, it is going around 30,800 . And what was the all-time high of the market, which was 26,373? Friend, if we calculate it in terms of percentage after the top level, then how much has the market fallen? Not even 10%.
Yes friend, the market has fallen around 10 %, not even 10%. Friend, why am I telling you this percentage, if you look at the definition of a bear market , then when is a bear market called? Whenever a market falls 20%from its all-time high to its top at any time. Then that particular face is called that market in a bear market, the market has now entered a bear phase.
Friend, look at the definition if we say this. Friend, if we check the current market, then it is not a bear market at all. Friend, if we look at it from the perspective of finance, then we can see that if we discuss Mark Favor, then he thinks that the market will fall 20%from this point and the Indian market will enter a bear phase.
Now let's come to that important point. Friend, why do you think so? If you are saying that there will be a 20%run or a 20%downfall, if there will be a 15%run, then there will be a 15%downfall. What is the reason behind this? Friend, because here he has said that the first thing is valuation. Friend, the valuation of the Indian market is still very costly.
This means that the expectation of earnings is always going on that so much money will come into the Indian market. He thinks that he will not see so much earnings here. What does earnings mean? Whenever we read any result, read revenue, after revenue, we always see that expenses are removed. Then what do we get?
The profit we get, yes friend. We get profit even after removing taxes and then what we get below that is BPS means earnings over EPS. And on that account, he thinks that, since there is EPS, there is earnings, the market, the earnings will increase more in the Indian market, the market will get more valuation in this place.
And he did not say exactly that whenever the company will put the quarter number in front in this place in the future. He does not say that there is something like let between the lines. He is trying to say that when the company shows its number in the future, there will not be that much earnings. And if the earnings do not come, then automatically the valuation that is there will slowly go down.
Hi friend, and what does it mean that the companies that we call PE ratio, mean that it will go to a higher level. And friend, in order for it to sustain in that place, the P ratio which is at a higher level, is there anything important that is needed for it to come down? Earnings. If your earnings increase, your P will come down.
And Mark Favor is saying that the valuation of the Indian market is high at the moment and earnings will not increase at this point. And if earnings do not increase, then the valuation that is there will not be justifiable at all. And the market will have to come down to this point again. And this logic is being put in front of everyone at the moment.
And he is not only warning, in fact, he has not given any warning to our Indian market. He is warning about the madness that is going on in many other global markets, about AI and semiconductors. Yes friend, the genes that are going on in AI, semiconductors, means that there are expectations related to them and that is a bit over-expectation in this place .
That, if he is going on with such a high amount of over-expectation, then it is not today but tomorrow, over-expectation means that things will not be the worst for many. So friend, this is a warning that he has put forward at this place about the current time with EI. I mean, he has officially said about the Indian market that there may be a downfall.
And about the rest of the EI semiconductor chip, he has said that there is so much expectation that it will be bad. And again, we can see many of these things in the market and in the foreign market as well. So friend, this is an important thing. Friend, what Mark Favor said here, I have told you in simple language.
If you want to know more details, then you can read his newsletter, study it. Friend, time will tell whether he will be right or not, that is the next thing ; but at this place we can say that in the coming time, it will be more challenging to earn money from the market. Yes friend, we are giving it challenging before, but we can see it more challenging.
Yes friend so I wanted to tell you this. Friend Mark Favre has said these things but before that did he say anything good about any particular thing where money will be made. When he made the last time prediction, if we talk about gold here, if we talk about silver, if we talk about precious metals, yes, he also said some good things about these that this place is good, there is money in this place, money can be made.
But friend, he is always very negative about equity. And friend, if we talk about the current current scenario, then we can see pressure everywhere at the present time. Friend let's see if Mark Favre's prediction will come true. Each person puts forward his own point of view. Friend if we discuss somewhere in Michael's house of Big Short, he said that now we will see a market babel type in this place for the last 30 days.
We can say that we have seen a good pressure. Sometimes Nazdaco downfalls. It is still downfalling. The way he said that it will completely burst, that too has not been seen in this place yet. Friend, we must study these things. Which point to consider and which point to ignore, it is a different analysis for each person.
I hope you found the video helpful, friend. You must like and share. I will come back with a new video. Until then, stay healthy, stay happy. Thank you.
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