원문 보기
hey soldiers we've got two very noteworthy very popular investors who are out there making predictions about what's going to go on in the stock market the question that many are asking question you may be asking is to what extent should you listen to these individuals to what extent should you pattern your investment strategy after what they're saying well let's get into it and we're going to talk about you know how much Credence you should give these people uh and what actually ends up working better in the long in the long run in terms of returns all right Michael Berry certainly has a flair for the dramatic now we all know who this is this Michael Berry is the individual who was featured uh in The Big Short movie he was played by Christian Bale uh and he pretty much called the 2008 crash he made a lot of money uh betting against the you know whole mortgage default swap house of cards I made a tremendous amount of money and made a name for himself the fund manager of The Big Short Fame deleted his Twitter profile on Wednesday a day after issuing an ominous one word message to investors that message said simply quote sell unquote uh now look Michael Berry has quit Twitter multiple times after issuing ominous investor related tweets this is not new for him all right this is uh Behavior he's exhibited several times in the past so I want you to just be aware of that and separate you know the way this is being reported the sensationalism with which this is being reported uh separate that from the reality when you go to his Twitter it says this account doesn't exist uh that's now the message that's displayed on his page the investor again we're talking about Michael Berry has quit Elon musk's social media platform multiple times over the past two years typically when his tweeting attracts significant media coverage and public attention for example Barry took down his Twitter profile in November after his criticism of musk let the Tesla CEO to call him a broken clock let me stop right here some people are saying I'm mispronouncing Barry hey you know who I'm talking about I put the guys picture up on the screen I have a regional accent you guys just have to deal with it I didn't go to uh the journalism school where they they rid you of your accent and make you a robot who reads teleprompters uh with authority on TV that's not what this is uh so you're gonna have to put up with the regional accent uh if you want a different view of the financial news he also left the website that website being Twitter in June 2021 shortly after diagnosing the quote greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things unquote and warning buyers of mem stocks and cryptocurrencies that they were headed for the mother of all crashes now look to an extent that has happened um if you predict something long enough it will happen I'm not saying that uh he's a spingali and I'm also not saying that he's a quack I think that you know I've expressed my concerns with cryptocurrencies here on the channel uh you know quite quite frequently and as far as the mem stocks come on man that is totally antithetical to uh what we advocate here which is doing your due diligence fundamental analysis of uh stocks that appreciate over time and maybe even kick off some income in the form of dividend stocks of companies that produce real things that people want okay I know at one point AMC the movie chain was a a mem stock and look um post 2020 the theater business is nowhere near as hot as it was uh it's got a lot of pressures okay a lot of people were taken out of the theater because of the whole 2020 uh debacle that we went through that whole thing um we also have streaming okay a lot of stuff goes straight to streaming and then the third and probably the most significant aspect of this is uh Hollywood's producing trash no one wants to see so that has done a number on theaters so AMC was out there for a minute uh turned into a mem stock but was it really a viable long-term bet so he's out there saying sell okay sell it all everything's going to hell in a hand basket sell on the flip side uh Jim Cramer he's saying bye now look Jim Cramer I don't watch his show um it's a little too mad cap for me especially when we're talking about something as serious as money he's got his own little stick he's obviously got an audience he's you know it works for him but does it work that's the question so he's out there saying um you know he's in the the him and the market are in Bull mode uh declines represent opportunities to buy on the dip now it's important to understand that both of these gentlemen Jim Cramer and Michael Berry to a large extent they're not talking to long-term investors and that's who this audience is I like to cultivate an audience that feels as though long-term investment is the best route to take toward building sustainable wealth uh Jim Cramer and Michael Berry are talking to Traders predominantly people who buy and sell with high frequency are in and out of the market looking for differences in price so they can play the Arbitrage game and um you know make money you know at a higher frequency now does trading work uh sure you know works very well at uh these big Wall Street Banks where you got professionals committed to it all day long uh high-speed computer networks that cost billions of dollars yeah yeah at that level it works uh but you know the retail day trader the um Regular Guy like you and I well uh Dave Ramsey's company they did a study and they found that uh let's see 97 of day Traders lose money over time and less than one percent of day Traders are actually profitable okay and so that's a problem that's a big problem because our number one one goal here is to make money not lose it right so if you found a formula where you're a day trader and you're part of this one percent hey my hat's off to you me I'm not built for that um I'm not uh ready to commit the time uh the resources or the intellect to learning how to do it for uh odds that are stacked against me right so what I prefer to do is to look at companies evaluate them fundamentally and like I said uh sit on them long term now with both of these strategies you got the short-term investment represented by day trading you got long-term investing and I know long-term investing seems a lot less sexy okay but there is a way that you can even increase your odds over and above that of you know long-term gain now remember investing in stocks is one way to make money and it's kind of a passive way you're not actively involved in that again unless you're a day trader all right we already talked about the odds of success at that now if you look at Jim Cramer's actual uh track record when we look at his track record we can actually glean something extremely important for your uh possible potential investment Direction remember you always got to do your due diligence so when his uh action alerts plus portfolio was examined they looked at it for a 17-year period from 2000 to 2017.
it was determined that it underperformed the s p 500. so during that period period in question Kramer's portfolio delivered annualized returns of 4.08 percent during that same period the annualized gains of the S P 500 was 7.07 so Kramer is underperforming the market now part of the reason why he's under underperforming the market is because he has a show every day of the week um he's out there making predictions in the left and right um what meanwhile the s p is just doing what it does okay his action alerts plus portfolio is something that he has to basically underpin when he goes on his show so he can't very well claim something's going to work on the show and then you you know if you don't see those same recommendations in that portfolio over time then you got to ask yourself what's going on so how can you actually take advantage of the better performing asset which is or asset class which is the S P 500 as a whole as opposed to looking at a you know actively managed uh set of stocks like his action alerts plus well simply an index fund okay even Warren Buffett has talked about these index funds and indexing you know in general is going to just allow you to take advantage of what the market does now sure you will take the slings and the arrows so this year for example if the s p is down then of course you know you'd be down with it under most circumstances now I will share with you an indexing strategy that does have a floor to it and that is the indexed universal life insurance policy okay now that type of policy you can uh you know link it to uh an S P 500 Index and also uh structure it such that it has a floor of zero percent so that if the market loses let's say five percent you kind of stopped at you know the first floor where the market took the ride to the basement and the reason that's important is because let's just say you're walking along one day and you've got uh two fifty dollar bills in your pocket and you lose one all right so in order to get back to where you were a hundred dollars in terms of percentage you need to generate a hundred percent more on what you still have in order to get back to where you were now some people might say well no all you need is 50 more no because if you make 50 of 50 remember you still have fifty dollars fifty percent of 50 is 25 and so you're at 75.
you need to make a hundred percent of 50 in order to get back to the hundred you had so that's kind of the situation when you crawl out of that basement from being in a market that dipped into negative territory you've got to come back you know further than the person who stopped at zero all right and we're all dealing with a limited amount of time so that's why that type of structure the index universal life with a zero percent floor becomes you know a valuable asset to have in a broader portfolio all right so guys there you have it uh Michael Berry is out there deleting his Twitter calling for people to sell Jim Cramer saying bye but at the end of the day if You observe a dollar cost average strategy of regularly investing whether the market be up or down in something like an index strategy you are going to you're not going to be buying Lear Jets okay that ain't happening with that strategy but at the same time you're not going to be looking at dented foods of you know Meow Mix either all right all right check out this report here how to survive the destruction of the American middle class there's a concept in this video that I want you to really think about as you know the years go on and America looks you know like it's less and less economically viable with our high uh interest national debt uh Rising taxes 10 take a look at this report and guys I'll talk to you soon
댓글 0