저자: Colin · 외국인
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Open Door Technologies(OPEN) 주간 지표를 분석하며 단기 기술적 약세를 전망. 주간 매매건수 244→287로 소폭 증가, 매출 추정 약 13.7억 달러, 시가총액 약 25억 달러 대비 밸류에이션 저평가 주장. 마이클 버리의 QXO 매수, JP모건·버핏의 주택시장 투자를 주택 회복 근거로 제시. 2027~2028년 금리 인하와 함께 매출 80~120억 달러, 주가 2~3배 가능성 언급(본인 의견). 단기적으로는 주간 저점 252 하향 이탈 후 2 달러대(190 부근) 지지 테스트 가능성을 말함.
다듬은 글
Yo yo yo, it's your boy Colin aka Colin Trades CSP back with you with another video. Today is Wednesday, uh, September 23rd, and I am just giving you guys my Open Door Technologies market outlook. Now, Open Door Technologies just recently posted their acquisition report yesterday, and people are getting mixed information regarding what is going on.
and so forth. And also too, Cass hasn't really been tweeting big things recently. And, you know, maybe he's keeping Steve stuff under the rug. We will shall see. Uh, you know, you know, November is around the corner, uh, when it comes to the earnings report. So, lots of things going on. So, sit back, relax.
I'm going to give you guys a quick rundown on what's going on at Open Door Technologies, give you guys a technical analysis like I always do uh at the end of the video. And of course, a little uh a side note, this is all not financial advice. Uh this is just all for educational purposes only. So, please do not sue me.
So, let's jump right into the video. Hit the like, subscribe, and the bell notification. Keep you guys updated on when I post these videos. and let's jump right into it. So, first jumping into the acquisition contracts. As you guys saw yesterday, uh we did post a 444 uh plus 17% week overw week. So, not a bad uh motion when it comes to that.
As Cass says, uh Q4 is the most important uh quarter of the year, not just providing 2027 report, but also finishing off the year strong. So, we got to make sure that they push those numbers out. So, acquisition contracts did tick up slightly from last week. Let's see if now they can push into that 5 to 600 range to finish off the year.
And another thing, the relative clearance versus MLS is up 11%. So not too bad. We are doing better than the overall MLS report and so forth. Now going into the data alone, as of right now, like I said, Q3 is over with because of their fiscal quarter year is completed and now they're working on to Q4.
Revenue estimated looks to be roughly around $1.37 billion. So, it is slightly from last video at 1.4, but we'll see if we can get that closer to that adjusted at 1.58 billion. And one thing to note, and I'm kind of actually curious what people's take is on this, but as you guys saw, Open Door's market cap is currently sitting at roughly around $2.51 billion.
If you start to add up their revenue from Q, Q1, Q2, but also Q3 sitting at 1.3 and then Q4 sitting at 1.37 billion. Um, you know, you're looking at almost close to 4ish to 5ish billion dollar for 2026 with the market cap of 2.5. It doesn't clearly reference, you know, the the value of the company, but someone somewhere is something seems to be off.
And if 2027 is as bullish as it seemed when it comes to the housing market, you could see a interesting price action going into 2027 once interest rates get cut. So something to definitely keep a side note on that. Um, as you guys can see, this past week roughly increased from 244 to 287 homes sold.
So, that is a somewhat good news for what Cass is saying. Lower the contribution margins to allow for homes to be flipped a lot quicker. So, hopefully we can continue to see that upward tick when it comes to homes sold. Exactly what Cass says, exactly what the market is, what they're doing. So that is good news to look at week overw week.
And like I said before, Cass hasn't really been tweeting his big tweets since he did on the 9th when he was mentioning regarding the slowdown um from this video or this tweet, but you know, nothing really crazy when it comes to the overall stock. So things are getting a little bit quieter of what they've been trying to come out with um and so forth.
But I would say that's somewhat good because you know he is working. That's that's the bright side. He is working. Now I do want to post this and people might not like what I'm about to say. Um but Michael Bur recent purchase on QXO. Now, in my past, I think two videos ago, two weeks ago, I mentioned regarding JP Morgan investing big on um when it comes to the housing market and Warren Buffett also uh investing into the housing market as well.
Now, this was this came out and it was very interesting to people that Michael Bur investing into QXO. If you guys don't know what QXO is, is basically a home builder, home infrastructure uh company. So, what this entails is that um he is going long because there could be an uptick in home builders when it comes to roofing, siding, all that good stuff, windows and doors and so forth.
Now, this could be, of course, current homes that already been purchased, people upgrading their houses and so forth. But the thing is, people usually don't upgrade their homes in a market of downturn. Now, if the market did catch a bottom and now we're looking at an uptick, people will start to renovate their homes so that they can sell their homes for a profit.
But then that person selling the homes, you have to find a buyer at a higher price. Now people are starting to buy homes. So that was definitely something interesting when it comes to a person now looking to invest into a housing market area or housing um stock market. So, you know, with more and more institutional buyers, more and more uh companies like JP Morgan and Warren Buffett and um now Michael Bur investing into the home, you're definitely going to start getting a lot of eyes on the housing market.
And the one thing that I've gotten a lot of questions on is why are you investing into Open Door Technologies while the housing market is in a red? You know, people do not buy or sell at high price. You know, people do not sell at low prices. You know, when things are bottom, you buy at the bottom of markets and you sell at tops.
So, I truly feel that the housing market is near a bottom to where then I'm going to sell at the tops. Not financial advice or anything, but this is my personal opinion. I think, you know, going into 2027, 2028, uh, the housing market will get to turn around and people will want to buy homes again. Interest rates will get cut, housing prices will go up, but people will be buying and selling homes, allowing for open door technologies to cash out the revenue with their new AI structure.
And like I and I'm hoping is that going into 2027 we're looking at roughly around 8 to 12 billion in revenue allowing for a stock to maybe double if not triple. So that is that again not financial advice. Now lastly last thing I always like to finish off with is the technicals on Open Door Technologies and give you guys my thought process on everything.
And now I like you know I don't know where the overall markets as you guys can see ES and NQ had a pretty nasty day today almost down 1% of course you know allowing for the shorts to then short Open Door Technologies after the 2-day run it's had and we basically filled this gap to the downside at 257.
Let's see if we can maybe get a push off back into the testing weekly highs. If not, we will most likely start to trend the lower. Um, with us opening right now at the the the weekly lows, um, if the market overall market does decide to continue to push down, I truly believe we might break this weekly low, making a new 52- week low and then continue to trend lower.
you know, it's something people do not want to hear. But unfortunately, when a chart tells you something like that, that's just the way it is. I do believe the overall market when it comes to Open Door Technologies is targeting this $2 to1 190 area as it is a major support on the bigger time frames.
Once it does hit that, you know, like I say before, at the current price, it is very undervalued when it comes to yearly revenue and market cap. It is being not, you know, when it comes to uh pricing in the correct amount of the stock price, but that is something when it comes to earning reports, that's when they provide the necessary information to let you know if the company is under or overvalued.
So, we do have to wait until we get to something like that, which then you'll see the move that you want to see. But when it comes to the current market structure, I can definitely see us breaking the weekly lows at 252 if the market does want to pull, retest that, and then start to target that $2. Now, if of course we did get back over this recent high at 2728 as of yesterday, then we definitely want to look for that retest break over the weekly highs at 289 and then see if we can push back into that $3 psychological level.
Now, that's going to be a very key level to pay attention to because if we do get to that $3, definitely expect for the bears to then try to short this thing back down and then start to make a new lower low. So, that is something you got to be cautious about if we do start to trend over the weekly high and back into that $3 range.
All right, so that is it when it comes to the video. I hope you guys enjoyed this video. If you guys have any questions or concerns, please leave a comment down below. I'm more than welcome to answer them. But I hope you guys have an amazing rest of this week and I'll see you guys next week. Peace.
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