저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 철도·방산 주식의 강세는 정부 지출 증가에 기반해 당분간 지속될 것이라는 전망이며, 다만 선거 등 정책 리스크를 함께 점검해야 한다. 철도주 상승 현황: IRFC, RVNL, RAILTEL, IRCON 등이 당일 급등했고 RAILTEL은 14% 상승, IRFC는 12% 상승이 언급되었다. IRFC는 현재 56 수준으로 역대 고점 52를 넘어섰다고 설명했다. 과거 수익률로 IRCTC 342%, IRCON 약 200%, RAILTEL 약 100%, IFSC 126% 등이 제시되었다. 가격 상승의 배경: 명확한 신규 뉴스는 없고, 기존에 알려진 철도역 개발 2만5천 크로어 투자 등 정부 계획이 근거다. 대형 투자자의 매수가 주가를 끌어올렸다고 평가했다. 장기 투자 관점: 실적과 수익이 나오기까지 2~3년 이상 걸릴 수 있으니 인내심을 갖고 장기로 접근해야 한다고 강조했다. 철도·방산 주식이 상당 기간 강세를 이어갈 것이라는 Vijay Kedia의 견해를 소개했다. 강세 근거: 정부의 자본지출(capex) 증가가 핵심이다. 정부 발주 증가 → 매출 증가 → 이익·EPS 증가 → 주가 상승의 논리다. 예산에서 두 섹터에 대한 지출이 크게 늘어난 점을 근거로 들었다. 방산 관련: 자립 인도(Self-reliant India) 정책으로 국내 기업에 대한 방산 발주가 늘고 있다. 중국·파키스탄 대비 국방 예산(약 72십억 달러로 언급)이 여전히 적다고 보며, 예산이 증액되면 방산주가 추가 상승할 수 있다고 봤다. 주요 리스크: 선거 등 정치 리스크를 가장 큰 위험으로 꼽았다. 집권 정부의 철도·방산 비전에 따라 주가가 크게 달라질 수 있으며, 정부 지출이 줄면 이익실현 매물이 나올 수 있다고 경고했다. 출연자 전망: 철도·방산 섹터가 향후 1년 가까이 강세를 이어갈 것으로 보나, 이는 정책과 정치 변수에 따라 달라진다는 조건부 전망이다. 기사 해석을 무작정 따르기보다 정책과 지출 추이를 확인하라고 조언했다.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, Namaskar, in this video we are going to talk about a very very important topic, okay, and whatever points are going to be discussed here, friends, today you are going to talk from an investor's point of view, you all know that this channel is from the investor's point of view, we do it by clicking on the saree button here, so what is the topic, friends, you all know that there is railway stock, there is also railway, there is defence, okay, and I am going to try to clear many dates related to this here, so let's talk about railway stock, okay, we have always checked that if there has been a rocket-like rise in any particular sector or any stock, then in the comment area, then it is asked here, then whether it is in railway or defence, in any stock, okay, so as per the formality, if we start the discussion, Arvind will see that today there was a forceful 5.5% rise, good performance is being seen, let's talk, Railtel has done wonders The 14% boom is being seen very easily, meaning the banks of big people are being seen here.
If we talk about IRCON International, then you are seeing a rise of 4%. If we talk about RFC, yes, we are seeing a tremendous fast of 12% here. There has been a news of a price rise in between, it has come down here, but till now there is no official news of the price rise, no problem, if not today then tomorrow the day after tomorrow, the prices are going to come sometime and but despite that, the stock is currently seen going up to 56 and this is the level that is being seen, the time high of the company is being seen at 52.
And if we talk about IRCTC, then it has also given good returns till now, but yes, from the top level, we are seeing the company's return around 30-40%, but from the overall return, you can see that a return of 342% is also being seen, this also includes a corporate action. It is being seen that if we talk about other companies as well, you can see the returns over time, IFSC has also given a return of 126%, okay, if we talk about IRCON International, it has given a return of almost 200%, brother, looking at a very high sentence, there is bonus as well, there is split as well, okay, so it has given a lot, if we talk about Railtel, there has been almost 100% return and if we talk about RBL, it has given a return of 6% here, okay, so such investors, we have to do these points again and again, this is the best meaning, isn't it, this code which is said that you don't just run short after buying shares, you have to do it here, if someone has to be made its brand ambassador, then at present this railway stock can be made here, especially if we talk about Arab, if we talk about IFSC, where you can see that there have been zero returns for two and a half years, in fact, negative returns have been made and literally you can say that in two and a half months, where people have shown patience, they are seen getting returns, so This thing leads to repeated protons.
Friends, I will always keep repeating these things because for such an investor, this is a very important thing. Sometimes, what happens is that we don't get success quickly. If we get this in English, then it's good, but sometimes we have to play long games. We have to look at only one thing, which one, as I say again and again, is capable of bringing this potential to the company?
What can happen? Sometimes you may not get success in 2 years, or 3 years, but when you get it, you will get such a huge return that it means skyrocketing returns. Now someone might have invested in Arvind. Someone might have thought that it would go up to 6%. I never even dreamed that it would double, that's a lot.
I was thinking that it would double, that's a lot. You are getting returns of up to 600%. Similar are the situations of all the other companies too. If we look at the situation in Railways, then we are seeing something similar here. So, we get to learn this point here. Anyway, friends, we come here and say, yes.
This is also the thing that is asked the most, Sir, what is the news that we will see such a tremendous boom, so friends, see, there is no concrete news coming out here at the moment, concrete news, I mean what all, you will get to see that news everywhere that this investment is going to come related to this, that investment is going to come, or the government will spend so much, it will spend so much, no such new news is coming out at the moment, okay, it is not available even through reports, yes, that old news, if we talk about the latest old news, then it was this, the government will spend 25000 crores, I mean the station is going to be renovated, just like airports, railway stations will be seen, so much will be spent related to it, so this is already the news that we know here, so they will keep getting contracts by making part payments related to this gradually and the railway company will have a good special committee, so this is already known to us here, so till now no such news has come out here due to which it has come out so fast, but we can say this much that big Players have done tremendous buying here due to which the stock is seen running, small players found here will buy, you and I will buy, the market does not care, whatever is to be bought in the book, yes only then we get to see everything running with positivity like this, yes definitely you keep searching, sometimes it also happens that later we get to know the news that oh okay the government has made such an announcement that they are talking about taking more money for the railways, that is, investing it here, so we have seen such a thing many times in the market here, okay, now some questions of friends are asked here in the comment section, so I would like to come to this and here like hello friends and the rally that has started with the railway stock, this is just a beginning, this rally of the stock will continue with the next part and will continue for a year, obviously who said this, Vijay Kedia sir, so Vijay Kedia sir, I do not think that anyone It is necessary to give an introduction to it.
So, he said this type of thing here and a lot of comments also come. Okay Sir, what do you think that will the railway and defence stocks run here for such a long period? Okay, so here is my point of view, I would like to put it in front of you people here. So first of all, let us see what Vijay Sir has said here, I mean highlighted points here, I mean why does he think that these stocks will keep running here.
The reason behind this is his belief that this good run will continue because if we talk about the government, okay, this is a government company, we are not talking only about railways, defence should also be included in it, so capex is relief. Friends, the expenditure done by the government here, we are continuously seeing it increasing day by day.
He is talking about both the railway and defence sectors here. So, he has also said that this thing which we are seeing, this sector, okay, some people had caught this sector earlier. I had caught it, I mean I had known earlier that yes, these sectors will do very well in the times to come. Right now, this story has already been played out, I mean, everyone has come to know about the big growth of these sectors and if you must have seen, then the rallies that we are seeing in the times to come, they are continuing here.
Vijay sir has to believe here, okay, he has put forward his point of view here. Now, if we try to understand things according to us, is the railway stock really okay, is it running like crazy, and if we talk about defense also, you can see that both these sectors are running here, as I said, we see these government sectors more, so is this rally continuing like this.
So friends, see, the most important thing is that we have to understand why we are running. It is the most important thing, so keep running because if we talk about the budget, okay, all this started with the budget itself, since then I had also told you people that you If you want, you can also watch my old videos that in the future oriented sector, focus should be kept on these two government sectors as well.
Okay, so right now you guys are result application, so if seen in the budget, friends, then yes, towards these sectors, that is, the money that is spent on them in the budget, we have seen it increasing manifold, the same thing that Vijay sir said about CPECS, we are seeing the expenditure of the government here towards these sectors and it is continuously increasing and if the money keeps getting spent, then the company will also benefit here because if you teach people in mathematics, how is the share price growth, if the revenue of any company increases, if the revenue increases, then its profit will increase, if the profit increases, then its earnings will increase, if the apps increase, then there will be automatic growth and the share price of the company will increase, this is simple mathematics, so what is its first step, revenue, so the revenue will increase, how will the revenue increase, if the government keeps giving orders here and if these companies keep getting those orders, then their order books will become strong, so if not today then tomorrow The money they are going to get here is going to be realised, it will be reflected in the books of accounts, profit will be visible, IPS will be visible, then the stocks will also run here, so as long as this story continues, friends, these stocks will keep running here, it is not that we just have to make predictions, yes, not just by running, we will have to check how much the government is spending on these sectors, hence when the budget comes, then these stocks will focus the most, both will talk about railways, we will also talk about defence, because if the government's expenditure on insects reduces here, then what will happen to these stocks, we have to see, profit booking will start here and the government will keep spending on it continuously, see the slogan of self-reliant India also, in railways, we do not have much problem, if we talk about defence, then the government has given the slogan of self-reliant India here, so maximum orders that are being received here are by the defence companies, which they are getting from our Indian companies, so it is very important to see that stance, okay, if that stance changes If it goes down then the stock will also go down, so this is a completely logical reason behind it, we should know this point also here, so those who invest, I have taught all these things very well theoretically to them, now what next is the most important thing, if we look at these stocks, let's talk about both railways and especially defence, what is the biggest risk in them, okay, avoiding these things will not work, friends, if you are investing then you should know this point, the biggest risk right now is going to be here, that is elections, we cannot ignore this point, cannot do it, because ultimately what is the policy of the government, okay, any government will be in power, then what is its policy, that sector is run accordingly, okay, if any government comes, okay, let us take an example for ourselves, if there is any government, okay, for such an example, leave BJP or Congress, so consider here that if any government comes, then any means, which one, talk to everyone in the name of my channel only I would like to tell the new players who are joining that, so we will have to see that if we talk to any government person here in Bandra, what is his stand on that particular sector, is he talking positive or negative about the railway sector, what is his stand on the defense sector, if we talk about China and Pakistan, what does he think related to this, does he believe that our defense budget is currently, if I talk about my personal, what is our defense budget?
72 billion dollars and according to me it is very less, especially if we look at the defense budget of China, it is 2-23 billion dollars, according to that we are 1/3rd, so at least our defense budget should go above 100 in the first three digits, okay, if any country like this comes, then understand that defense stocks will run away, okay, these are all effort-related things, friends, this is not a joke, the stock market means if you invest then it is fine, but if someone comes and says that the defense budget is so much There is no need to increase anything much, whatever is there is fine, what will happen, then the stocks will go down, so this thing to see, this is very important, okay, and it will run on this, if someone comes and says, oh no, the defense budget should be taken above 150 billion dollars, brother, then the stocks will be divided three-four times, so this is how things work in the market, friends, okay, so this point should be known, take the defense stocks, for example, some taxes were there since ancient times, but how big was it, we thought it was good, it was not so good, why was it not good, because the stance of the current government related to defense is very clear that as much as possible, yes, give orders to our indigenous companies, and you must have seen big orders, submarine- related orders, airplane-related orders, okay, a lot of such orders are being seen, look at the drone sector, we get to see this also in defense, so this is the policy, it is very important to see, so with these, if you Close to defense stocks, especially defense and railway stocks, it is not just about investing money.
You will also have to look at the risk of what is going on in politics, which government is coming and which government is not coming, and if anyone is going to enter, then the person who is going to be in power, the person who will be handling the sector, they will invest the stock according to how big his vision is for the sector, okay, if his vision is very small then there will be no benefit, okay, but if his vision is very big then whichever government he joins, those stocks will do well, so it is very important to see this point, but the retail minister does not like this theory, sir, whether you tell him a shortcut, yes or no, he will run away or not, friend, that does not happen, we have to see that, okay, so for now, if we talk about the story, both these sectors are giving excellent performance here and for this excellent performance to continue, we will have to study all these points thoroughly, that is why I recently I had said this thing here in the middle that brother, these stocks of these sectors are running tremendously here, but do not go by just seeing such random rise in it, this point of politics, this angle of relief, any point of relief related to the analysis of the government, study that too and take it on measuring accordingly.
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