저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio는 막대한 부채 증가로 실질금리가 장기간 마이너스를 유지해야 하고 화폐 가치가 하락할 것이라 주장. 채권 보유는 불리하며 수익률곡선은 우상향(정상화) 방향으로 갈 것으로 봄. 정치적 분열과 미중 갈등, 기후, 기술의 다섯 가지 힘이 경제를 좌우한다고 설명. 중국은 부동산 침체와 지방정부 부채로 구조조정이 필요하며 포트폴리오의 작은 비중만 유지한다고 언급.
다듬은 글
So we have a big debt increase and enormous amount of we have enormous amount of debt and it's going to keep increasing and one man's debts are another man's liabilities. Okay. So what is that going to mean for monetary policy? Forget the daily market noise. We're about to uncover the five colossal forces shaping our economic future.
From exploding debt to geopolitical tensions, we'll break down why small interest rate adjustments barely scratch the surface. This is a Ray Dalio inspired journey to understand the grand cycles that truly drive global change. I think it's such a silly bet like what 25 or 50 it doesn't make a difference.
I think that's the problem with the news cycle and all of this. They're losing sense of the bigger picture. Okay. Fed policy. What does the Fed have to do? Fed has to keep interest rates high enough to satisfy the creditors that they're going to get a real return without having them so high that the debtors have problem.
So now if we're looking at this whether it's 25 or 50 basis points 25 basis points is going to be depend would be the right thing to do if you look at the whole picture as a whole. If you look at the mortgage situation which is worse and that affects more people then it's probably 50 basis points. But let's get beyond that.
Okay. And talk about these five big forces. The first of those forces is the force that you're referring to which is excuse me the debt money economy dynamic and force. Okay. So we have a big debt increase and enormous amount of we have an enormous amount of debt and it's going to keep increasing and one man's debts are another man's liabilities.
Okay. So what is that going to mean for monetary policy? Okay, as you have to sell more and more of those bonds, what will be done? I think the same thing was done in Japan though that what happens is there's not going to be a default. Of course, there won't be a default, but increasingly they have to drive down real interest rates so that real interest rates are significantly negative.
So you're going to have a ne in order to service the debt you have to have a significantly negative real rate and you also have to have then the depreciation of the value of money because inflation rises. So that you have to have a nominal growth rate. In other words, inflation plus real growth that is above the nominal interest rate and you have to have a real interest rate that is negative and you have to have a positive slope yield curve.
So that holding bonds is a bad deal. um we have a model for estimating what what should be the mar the economy right now is very very very close to an equilibrium level in many ways if you're just looking at what is and you're not looking at the debt problem and it would look like there should be a modest easing of interest rates and a move gradually to a more positively sloped yield curve what we would call normal it's fairly normal except it's not normal in the way that it's so skewed so if We look at the markets and we look at the way the population's income levels are for the various sectors.
If you look at the bottom 60% if you look at the politics the left and the right and the nature of what is going on the two worlds that we live in in terms of that the economy and the values that brings us to the election. So if we're talking about let's say monetary policy you have to look at the five forces.
So back to the five forces. the first force we talked about. The second fourth is the force of internal order and disorder that progresses in a cycle. There is um hard left and hard right. So there's ideological differences that are creating a political situation that leads us to not only have possibly different policies, dramatically different policies, which will have an effect on the economy, won't have an effect on the markets, but even worse or more concerning is the conce that it's conceivable that one side or another might be losing.
So, with debt skyrocketing and real interest rates likely staying negative, clinging to old investment strategies simply won't cut it, you need to actively position your portfolio to counter these forces and the potential for currency depreciation. Consider where true value lies. Diversifying wisely, especially given economic shifts unfolding globally.
Don't just ride the waves. Proactively adjust your sales for the turbulent future ahead. So how will that will we have an orderly transition of power and will we have an orderly democracy in which there's the ability to have disagreement and the resolve of of those disagreements. I think that these are really questionable situations.
So the second force is that internal order disorder force. The third force is the great power conflict. In other words, throughout history, there's a time when the rising power challenges the existing power and there's a world order thing going on. And that world order thing going on has to do with China, the United States, and so on.
And of course, it becomes even more important than the economy because it is it's considered national security. Okay. The the fourth influence is um through time is acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics. And climate is a big influence. It's going to cost us $8 trillion a year. It's estimated in one way or another in an world economy that has a h 100red trillion.
And the fifth force of course is technology. Okay? Man's inventiveness of 10 technology. Throughout history, those five forces have interacted. So when we look at things, I think that there's the 25 or 50 basis points. Let's get beyond that. Let's look at the whole arc of that in terms of the changing of all of those four five forces and their inter relationship.
Well, as I say, I think that there's two questions. First, the question of will we have an orderly transition of power? That's quite amazing. Will we have democracy work as it is? That cannot be assured, right? So because behind all of this is that we have irreconcilable differences not just pertaining to taxes and wealth and economic policies and so on but in terms of values uh you know it's um how do people raise children related to sexuality and all of those things there are those those gaps so I think we hope for an orderly transition of power isn't it quite amazing that we would think could we not have that and then we go beyond that And then we say, what about those policies that are going to be dealt with?
Nobody's going to deal with the debt policy that's going to end up being monetized down the path. Then the question is issues of taxation. And those issues of taxation will have an important impact on the capital markets. If they're bought for after tax returns by and large, it it's the uh important thing.
You lower corporate income taxes, you raise corporate income taxes, it makes a difference to prices. So we're going to have those issues, a lot of issues to talk about regarding the election. I think when we go beyond that, most likely there is going to be uh irreconcilable differences and I think that you're going to see more movement to states.
So there'll be a challenge of what does the central government control and what do the state governments control and is there an an obedience in a sense. So we are coming more to a fragmented set of circumstances. What we would need I I think is um strong leadership of the middle to bring the country together and leave and isolate more of the extremists if that was possible and then to make reforms because we do have a very skewed type of economy.
But there's no I don't think it's either of the candidates. Okay. I don't think it's ei No, it's not either of the candidates. I think that the issue of reform, strong leadership in the middle, I don't see it. I I think that there are uh real issues in in China now and they changed really in the last um four years and that is that u they they need a um restructuring um a lot of the spending they're they're well let's say individuals 70% of their money was in real estate.
Real estate has gone down. Stocks have gone down, salaries have gone down, and so and and as a result, they're not spending, and they're concerned, and they're holding money in cash. With deflation, cash is a relatively good asset class. That's kind of the household and the business sector is in that state.
At the same time, you have the government sector is a problem because most of the government spending, 83% of government spending is spent by local governments. those local governments got their money by selling land for real estate. Okay, there are no land sales and they borrowed a lot of money and uh those that they borrowed the money don't get paid.
And so the question is how are you going to get money into the those places to operate it? It's a situation that's more challenging than Japan in 1990. It needs a restructuring in order to be able to do that. And then there's also the question is um the property u values u property uh the property ownership um the um is it respected and um deng xiaoping during his period said it's glorious to be rich is it still glorious to be rich so you have an environment in China which is changing and becoming a more difficult environment so it's the time right now that you would see either is there going to be a restructuring and a getting past that the innovation yes there's fantastic innovation in terms of technology there's nothing likely other than in the United States Europe certainly isn't a competitor in that however it's very much government directed can there still be entrepreneurship and that inventiveness I I just want to be clear about the investing in China uh in all countries there are um cycles and ups and downs and so on and in no country should you invest so much money that it becomes a dominant portion of your portfolio.
You so in China I I still invest in China. The question is the size of the investment and how that investment is structured. So um I it's been a good experience for us investing in China as largely um a very attractively priced place that now has a lot of questions regarding the issues that I've just referred to.
In other words, the economic issues that and the political issues regarding property rights and um whether it's still glorious to be rich and how that'll work. Therefore, there's a small percentage of our portfolio which is in China and will stay in China uh you know through this process. Well, for the last 35 years, I've written down principles and decision rules, literally many thousands of those.
And I and they have operated as systems, decision-m systems, and that now I'm very excited about that because I've But you have to train them very well because it's been all so specified over a period of time. It is very educational. I've then taken a large team of people and gone through asking it questions and dealing with it and training it.
And the reason is a lot of people ask me questions. I'm at a phase in my life where my main objective is to pass along what I've had that it's of benefit to others and we interact such as this kind of conversation. And I thought it would be great if there could be I could answer all those questions or we could have discussions.
How are you doing and all that? So that's what I've created. It's called digital ray. At least that's the tenative name and we're beta testing it. We're going to have several thousand people test it and see how that goes and then we'll move forward. But I think it's exciting when you have you need to have computerized decision making working with you because the time of making all those decisions in your head that's obsolete.
The you know the smart person who thinks ah I can weigh everything in my head they're obsolete. Nowadays, you have to have a partner in terms of those decision. Given the growing fragmentation and irreconcilable differences we discussed, an orderly future is no longer a given. My advice, beyond just finances, start building personal resilience for a world potentially defined by deeper divisions and shifting power.
Proactively adapt your plans, understanding economic policy is now deeply intertwined with political will. Don't just hope for the best. Strategically prepare for what's coming. . Want to learn more about investing? Like this video and subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular tips, tricks, and insights.
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