저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인플레이션 폭탄이 임박했으며, 유가 상승이 전 에너지·원자재로 번져 물가가 크게 오를 것이라는 경고. [유가·물가 전망] 유가는 현재 배럴당 110달러 수준(5개월 고점)이며, 중간선거 이후 전략비축유 방출 중단으로 150달러 이상까지 오를 수 있다고 주장. [생활물가 체감] 전기요금은 전년 동월 대비 26% 상승, 보험료도 크게 오르고 있으며 스트리밍 서비스는 매년 8~10%씩 인상된다고 언급. [생산자물가(PPI)] 9월 PPI는 전월 대비 1.3% 상승(연율 약 17%), 전년 대비 6.3%. 근원 PPI는 전월 대비 0.6%(연율 약 9%). [수입·수출물가] 9월 수입물가 전월 대비 1.1%(연율 약 14%), 전년 대비 8.1%. 수출물가는 전월 대비 2.2%, 전년 대비 11.6%로 미국 내 원가 상승 압력이 커진다고 분석. [연준·금리] 워시 연준의장 취임 후 125bp 인상했으나 인플레이션 상승폭(약 200bp)에 비해 턱없이 부족해 연준이 여전히 뒤처져 있다고 주장. 12월 0.25%p 인상 가능성은 있으나 이미 늦다고 평가. 시장이 금·은을 매도하는 것은 잘못된 판단이라고 언급. [2026~2027년 물가 전망] 올해 CPI가 7% 이상 상승해 2021년(바이든 행정부)을 넘어설 것으로 예상. 트럼프 4년간 누적 물가상승이 바이든 4년보다 클 것이라고 주장. [주택시장] 주택 데이터가 2007년 금융위기 직전과 유사하다고 경고하며, 주택가격 하락이 금융위기를 촉발했다고 설명. [조건·리스크] 정책 실패 시 인플레이션 장기화 가능성, 연준의 늦은 대응이 리스크. [출연자 입장] 과거 트럼프 행정부 물가 관련 발언으로 폭스뉴스 출연이 중단되었다고 언급하며 자신의 전망이 옳았다고 주장.
다듬은 글
There is a inflation bomb that is going to be going off. Oil prices are going to go up towards 150 and then higher. And it's not just oil, it's going to be everything energy related, all commodity prices. This is a huge inflation problem. This should be an alarm. Nothing is getting cheaper. Everything is getting more expensive.
Please like and share the video. Subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications. Oil prices hit a new 5-month high today. We hit 110 uh dollars a barrel. But I think oil prices are going to soar after the midterms because that they're going to have to turn off the spigots on the strategic petroleum reserve.
So, oil prices are going to go up towards 150 and then higher. And it's not just oil, it's going to be everything energy related, all commodity prices. This is a huge inflation problem. Yesterday I got my electric bill for I think it was September and it was 26% higher than it was for the same month in the prior year.
Same house, same appliances. That's a big increase in my electric bill. And you know, this is happening I'm sure across the country. And insurance is going way up. All all kinds of I'm looking at these streaming services. You know, I subscribe to quite a few of them. You know, the Netflix earnings route today, but all these streaming services every year, there's never been a year that they don't jack up the price.
And they price increases are way way above 2%. They're usually like 8%, 10% every year, like like clockwork. Everybody keeps raising their prices. So, when Trump is talking about how prices are coming down everywhere, again, that's the same nonsense he said in December when he got me kicked off of Fox News.
It's almost going to be a year now. It's about I guess 10 months since I was banned from Fox News because I said that prices were going up, and what did I say on that interview in December? I said that oil prices were going to keep rising. The administration was saying they expect oil prices to go down.
I said, "No, they're going to keep rising." And I said that the cost of living was going to keep going up, that the president's policies were not working. They were not lowering inflation, and he went ballistic cuz he said, "I'm a jerk cuz I don't realize that prices are coming way down. Everything is getting cheaper." Nothing is getting cheaper.
Everything is getting more expensive, but the point I'm making here is this should be an alarm. Cuz look at these other numbers, right? So, look at the PPI numbers that came out after we got the CPI. And nobody really talked about these because, you know, they talk about the CPI. They don't bother to look at the PPI, even though the PPI is a glimpse into the CPI because before consumer prices go up, producer prices go up because that's that's the chain.
I run a business. My costs are going up. All the stuff I'm buying is more expensive. Now I got to raise my prices. I got to recover that. I got to maintain a profit margin. So, there's a step of how prices go up. And so, you can't just ignore what's happening to producers and just wait until, you know, it trickles down to the consumer.
But the September PPI was up 1.3% in 1 month. That annualizes out to 17%. That is a huge number. What are the producers going to do with these higher prices? They're going to pass them on. But even now, year-over-year, the annualized increase in producer prices is 6.3%. That is a big number. People should be alarmed.
Like, "Oh my gosh, we got a problem here. You know, the Fed is is too loose. We need some serious hikes." No, in fact, the odds of a rate hike this month crashed because of some comments from Warsh. So, the markets don't even expect another quarter point rate hike until December. Warsh has been Fed chair for 5 months.
All he's done is 125 basis point hike. And maybe we'll get a second one 7 months in. Meanwhile, look at what's happened to inflation. Inflation has risen so much more than rates. If we end up, let's say, with just 5% inflation this year versus about 3% last year. That's a 200 basis point rise in inflation.
And maybe we'll get a 50 basis point rise in rates. That's not tight money. That means that interest rates have come down. The Fed has eased policy because in the face of a 200 basis point increase in inflation, the Fed only raised interest rates by 50 basis points. That's 25% of the increase in the inflation rate.
You're not going to bend the curve when you're that far behind the curve. But, the numbers are suggesting that [clears throat] next year it's going to be a lot higher. In fact, I would not be surprised if inflation in 2027. In fact, I would forecast this. For the whole year, the CPI will go up by more than 7%.
That will be more than the highest year, 2021, under Biden. And I've already said this from the beginning that the cumulative increase in consumer prices during the 4 years that Trump is president will be bigger than the 4 years when Biden was president. And what makes it worse is that the huge increase in the cost of living under Trump is on top of the huge increase in the cost of living under Biden.
That's what makes it so much worse because it already was so bad. And instead of solving the problem, which is what Trump promised, he promised that prices would be coming way down on day one, he made the problem even worse. And the core PPI that we got last week was up .6. That's the core. Annualize that, that's 9%.
But the worst numbers were the import export prices. And that's exactly what was happening in 2021. Import prices were up 1.1% in September. In 1 month. That annualizes to 14%. The year-over-year increase in import prices, 8.1%. There is a lot of inflation in the pipeline because the import prices even come before the producer prices.
They're they're the earliest indicators of what's going on. But look at the export prices, up 2.2%. Now, I look, I know a lot of there's energy in there, but still, 2.2%. That's 1 month. That's more than the entire 2% 1-year inflation target in a single month. That annualizes to 30% inflation. But even the year-over-year increase in export prices is 11.6%.
And again, people may think, why should we care about export prices cuz we don't pay those? Well, the stuff that we export, we don't export it all. We we produce it, we consume some, and we export the rest. So, that means the cost of the stuff that we're producing here is going way up. So, Americans are going to pay higher prices, too.
It's not just the Europeans or the Canadians or the Mexicans or whoever is buying this stuff, Americans are, you know, looking at the same increase in prices. So, there is a inflation bomb that is going to be going off. And everybody is so complacent, nobody cares. They're talking about, "Well, we might have another 25 basis points or, you know, that is nothing.
That is nothing. And again, if Walsh really was a tough inflation fighter, we would have had a lot more than 125 basis point rate hike in the face of all this horrible data on inflation and consumer prices. And of course, you know, the precious metals market still is not reacting. They're still looking at, "Oh, the Fed's going to hike rates by another 25 basis points in December.
We better sell gold. We better sell silver." These rate hikes mean nothing cuz again, by then, the inflation numbers are going to be a lot worse. So, the Fed is going to be even further behind the curve when it hikes rates by 25 basis points in December than it is right now. Now, the other numbers that are reminding me of a prior period are the housing numbers.
The housing data is so bad, it reminds me of 2007 before we had a financial crisis that was the result of a collapse in home prices. It was falling home prices that ultimately caused the problem. It wasn't just that we had adjustable rate mortgages that were resetting because had real estate prices not go down, even if borrowers couldn't afford to make those higher payments, they could have sold their houses.
Or even if the bank had to foreclose, if the home prices held up, they wouldn't have had the losses. The problem was that the lenders lost money on defaulted mortgages. That's where all the losses came from in the financial sense.
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