저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 세일즈포스 실적을 기술주 전반의 바로미터로 보며 단기 매수 관점을 유지하는 강세 전망. 실적 기대: 웨드부시 Dan Ives는 세일즈포스가 실적 기대치를 상회(beat)할 것으로 봄. 앞으로 수 분기 내 두 자릿수 성장률로 가속 가능성, 마진 확대 전망. 주가 흐름: 연초 대비 60% 이상 상승, 최근 3개월 약 2% 하락 수준. 활동주의 투자자 압박 등으로 올해 초 부진했으나 반등 흐름. 리스크/업계 비교: 직전 분기 10년 내 최저 매출 성장률이 우려 요인. 슬랙 인수가 역풍이었으나 이제 순풍으로 전환된다고 주장. 클라우드 지출 둔화 우려에 대해 마이크로소프트·구글·오라클 사례와 유사하게 긍정적으로 봄. 가격 인상: 최근 전반적으로 약 9% 가격 인상. 효과는 3~4분기 후 나타날 것으로 전망, 현금흐름·성장률을 시장이 과소평가 중. AI 전략: AI 사업이 2025년까지 연간 약 40억 달러 규모가 될 수 있다고 주장. 저평가된 숨은 AI 수혜주로 제시. 목표/조건: 주가가 52주 고점(238달러) 돌파하려면 강한 실적(매출 성장률 8~9% 수준 이상 및 대형 서프라이즈) 필요. 과거 대비 Ives는 Nvidia처럼 크게 상회해야 한다고 언급. 기타 종목 발언: 애플은 아이폰15 업그레이드 사이클(약 2.4억 대 교체 대상)로 시장이 과소평가 중이라 주장. 테슬라는 중국 판매 회복과 가격 인하 효과로 수요 증가, 가격 인하 대부분 지나갔다고 봄. 테슬라에 대해 슈퍼차저, 차세대 배터리, FSD 성장 기대. 전체 전망: 기술주 반등(테크 르네상스) 지속, 세일즈포스 실적을 계기로 시장 전반 강세 기대.
다듬은 글
my next guest is expecting a beat he calls Salesforce one of his favorite software names right now he's Dan Ives wed Bush right here at post nine welcome good to see you good to be here uh pretty good year for the stock was up 60 plus year to date look it's it's been back against the wall going into earlier this year activists swirling and Benny off it's going to flex the muscles movement for Salesforce because of the margin story and because what I view is a Renaissance of growth that I think will continue in terms of what we see tonight well how high is the bar though given the stock move into the number yeah I actually think well the bar has definitely been said higher but when I look at our checks and what's over the coming quarters I think they could accelerate to double-digit type growth with margins expanding I still view this as sort of risk reward that I I've used more of a table pounder into the next six to nine months given where sales force fit I think this is also going to be a big barometer for the rest attacks they had the slowest rate of Revenue growth in 10 years last quarter that are you taking that into account enough is that reversing like what's the story yeah I think it's starting to reverse I think the big thing from Tableau and if you look at what's happening on the core software side I think slack was a headwind now that actually starts becoming Tailwind they definitely went through a tough time but if you go back to earlier this year I think bears are thinking their best days were in the rear view mirror and I actually disagree I think this is a company that's really on the doorstep of a Renaissance to grow so we mentioned 60 year to date I think I just saw down 20 or something over the last three months or so what are the concerns about Cloud spending overall because this is going to play right into this stock and the kinds of things that the CEO says on the call yeah and then what can beningoff when benioff talks everyone listens because this is just another piece of the puzzle I mean we heard from Paolo but Salesforce is a huge barometer and I believe in terms of cloud spend similar to what we saw with Microsoft when I believe what we saw with Google we'll see with Oracle as well Scott we're seeing optic in terms of over the last two three months and I think we're going to hear more of that from Salesforce and Benny I view this as bullish for overall tax I misread the chart it's only down about two percent over the last three three uh last two months or last three months excuse me um the other thing is they recently raised prices right by about nine percent almost across the board when does that start to show up it's too soon now right it's too soon now but when we look out the next three four quarter I think right now streets actually underestimating growth from a cash flow perspective as well as from a growth and then also this is all the drum roll to AI because I believe from an AI in terms of that sweet rollout I think that's going to be a big Focus tonight in the call we think that could be potentially four billion annually by 2025 and I think this is actually an under the radar AI play in terms of what's coming out of Salesforce and Benny off 238 is the 52-week high how good does this have to be to get back towards if not exceed those levels yeah I think it's called scale 110 if we have an eight to a nine this the stock that I think breaks through that because you think we'll really get it eight to a nine I mean just kind of give in the environment we're in whereas I said Revenue growth was you know in the most recent quarter that that sounds to me like they better they better pull an Nvidia they better hit the ball so far out of the park it lands on the street yeah now to that point I do think that many on the street in terms of expectations that have been ratcheted up but our checks have shown actually significant Improvement not just quarter over court but even over the last six months and I think this is just an example of a company that has a massive install base you got the golden install base of Salesforce now it's just further monetizing it and you go back that slack deal I mean that was really the headwind activist came in swirling and I think it was really a moment where I think bending often Salesforce has proved the value of the franchise start talking about installed bases I go right to Apple for obvious reasons arguably you know the most powerful installed base in the history of consumer technology that sucks on the Move by the way it's back above its 50-day moving average they got the invitation sent out um yesterday is this stock back is the momentum back oh I I mean I mean you've talked about it I viewed it as this was a no-brainer opportunity because of what I view over the last called month or two the street is significantly underestimated what's going to be a mini super cycle in terms of iPhone 15.
we think we're talking about 240 million that have an upgrade in four plus years all of our checks out of Asia even as of this week sure is positive and I think it's one the streak continues to underestimate cooking Cupertino where they play chess and others are playing checkers quickly too on Tesla which was at the top of our program is one of the reasons we're talking about this Resurgence in Tech what is that up 10 a month it's about China I mean go back in a week but go back to the last few months I think there was a view that price Cuts you're gonna have this price whether it's going to continue to play out yet for Tesla you've actually seen what I've used an uptick in demand We Believe 95 of those price Cuts in the rear view mirror and I do think Scott you're starting to see that some of the parts story and Tesla in terms of that valuation supercharger next batteries and then FSD player which is why we believe this is a stock that you know I think is just on the early stage of its next leg of growth all right Dan knives thank you very much thank you all right we'll see you soon
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