저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 드러켄밀러는 단기적으로 달러 매도 포지션은 피하고 달러 쪽에 리스크를 두고 있으며 금도 보유 중이라고 밝힘. [달러·통화] 미국 달러는 과거 2~3년 주기로 추세가 이어지며, 지난 10년간 약 10조~13조 달러가 미국 달러로 유입됐다고 언급. 본인은 최근 9개월간 달러 상승을 놓친 것을 커리어 최대 실수 중 하나로 인정. [금리·정책] 바이든 정부와 파월 연준의 긴축이 앞으로는 외국 대비 상대적으로 크지 않을 것으로 봄. 미국이 달러를 무기화한 점, 달러 기축통화 지위에 대한 의문을 언급하며 달러 신뢰 약화 가능성을 제기. [포지션] 현재 가장 리스크를 감수할 만한 영역은 미국 달러이며, 1주 안에 생각이 바뀔 수 있다고 단서를 달았음. 같은 이유로 금도 보유 중. 단기 숏 베팅은 권하지 않음. [비트코인·암호화폐] 암호화폐와 나스닥의 상관관계가 강하다고 보며 이를 지표로 참고. 블록체인은 5~10년 내 경제의 실질적 힘이 될 가능성이 크다고 전망하나 투자 결론은 유보. [인플레이션 시나리오] 인플레이션 강세장에서는 금보다 비트코인을, 스태그플레이션 약세장에서는 금을 보유하는 것이 낫다는 프레임 제시. 다만 이는 관찰에 기반한 임시 가정이라고 설명. [투자 조언] 현재가가 아닌 1년 반 뒤 세계를 그려보고 그때의 가격을 예측하라고 조언. 현재 실적보다 미래 기대 변화가 주가를 움직인다고 강조. [영상 내 비트코인 온체인 데이터] 진행자는 비트코인 유동 공급량 감소 추세를 근거로 강세를 주장하나, 이는 드러켄밀러 본인 발언이 아닌 진행자 주장임.
다듬은 글
I'd say the one area that whether I I feel reasonably comfortable in is I'm sure the United States dollar currency Trends tend to run two or three years we had a long one here over 10 trillion something like 13 trillion came into the US dollar during the previous decade I will say full disclosure I missed the dollar it's probably the biggest Miss in my career in currency trades I missed the last nine months run up in the dollar I just couldn't bring myself down Joe Biden and Jerome Powell I think now that on a relative basis the tightening in the U.S going forward will not be as much as as the foreigners now that we've weaponized the dollar and you've got people like little uh uh running around asking why we need to be trading in US Dollars by the way it's not a bad question historically we could be trusted we had a rule of law a lot of things so about the only space I have any risk going right now is it's in the US dollar um don't run out in short dogs I could change my mind in a week but that's where I am right now and I'm also on gold obviously for the same reasons Stanley drunken Miller billionaire investor telling you to short the dollar and long hard assets like Bitcoin it's time to opt out crypto filming welcome back to the channel Aaron here coming back at you with another cryptocurrency view today as you guys just saw in that clip that was billionaire investors Stanley drunken Miller he's talking about Bitcoin in today's clip he's talking about what he thinks about the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin and he thinks that the future could be promising for BTC so let's go ahead and jump in today's clip leave your thoughts in the comment section below let me know what you guys think about drunken Miller's thoughts and let's go ahead and check out the clip seeing it but I expect it to you can't take build over 2 trillion in wealth in purchasing power and then take a trillion of it out and not matter John I also have high frequency um signals and there certainly seems to be a strong correlation between crypto and the NASDAQ I don't think it takes a genius to figure out why so I'm looking as an indicator that way crypto um you know everything that that Charlie Munger says about it I'm sympathetic too everything that says Bill Miller says about it and so it's sympathetic too so I think that's a movie that has yet to be played out and one that I don't want to bet on conviction but I will be very surprised if blockchain isn't a real force in our economy say five years from now to ten years from now and not a major disrupter with with companies that will have been founded between now and then that'll do very well but there will also challenge things like our financial companies and do a lot of disruption so I find crypto interesting my 69th birthday is in a couple weeks I'm probably too old um to compete in an election with the young people in this space but I'm certainly monitoring it I'm not sure why other than that NASDAQ type risk play takers are the ones that send to play in Bitcoin and curmudgeons that are gold bugs and want the world to fall apart playing gold but there's no question and this I've watched and it's gone on long enough now that I believe it that if you believe we're going to have irresponsible monetary policy and inflation going forward if it's in a bull phase you want to own Bitcoin but if it's in a bear phase for other assets you want to own gold and I think I just articulated the reason but sometimes John I don't care um this is going long on enough that I'm starting to believe what I'm observing and for sure if I think we're going to have an inflationary bull market um I'd want to own Bitcoin more than gold and if I thought we're going to have a bear Market you know stagflation type thing I'd want to own gold doesn't mean I'm going to believe that in a year but that's my assumption going forward from this point over-the-counter um Fang type investors if they believe inflation and they tend to be younger they want to play Bitcoin uh old curmudgeons that secretly want the world to fall apart they don't own Bitcoin they own gold so but that's kind of cheating because that's kind of a reason I've made up for what I've observed I think you gotta you gotta know your own biases if I was a tech investor I would certainly be learning you know we had the internet wave we had the cloud wave Cloud doesn't look like it's over yet but I would certainly be look be looking into blockchain very deeply into the possible disruption it might take but I think fundamentals are fundamentals look when companies are losing money capacity is always going to shrink and their margins are going to look better in three years when companies are over earning their margins are going to come down in three years I think all that stuff will be out there I think the great thing about my original Mentor Spirits drellis in Pittsburgh was he made me Focus on what moves the stock price like you can't just say Stan okay this is a great company and the earnings are great so tell me how people are going to think differently in 18 or 24 months about the situation than they're thinking now that would be my number one advice to the young people do not do not invest in the present the present it's not what moves stock prices change musum and I want you to try and envision a different world in a year and a half from now and where these security prices would trade versus now giving the world you envisioned that would be my number one advice to a young person getting in the business so you guys can see Stanley drunken Miller is talking about invest in the future do not invest in the current day you don't want to invest in all the best companies you need to look into the future see what the best assets are and you can see that right here on this Bitcoin chart this is the Bitcoin liquid and a liquid Supply chart you can see right here this blue area is the liquid Bitcoin Supply the basically the Bitcoin that does not move you have the orange which is the liquid and you have the red area here which is highly liquid now one thing to notice here the Bitcoin in liquid Supply continues to go up and up and up these are just people who love Bitcoin they want to hoddle it they're not going to sell for a long time so you can see that's continuing to go up and it's continue to go up since the start of BTC and after that 2020 happening that we had the Bitcoin a liquid Supply really started to go up even faster as you see the liquid Supply started to go down for the first time in history so you're starting to see a bit of a trend change here after the 2020 happening you guys know that the blocker Wars got cut in half for all miners it's harder for miners to get more BTC so you can see the liquid Supply is actually going down for the high liquid and just the liquid supply all together and as the happenings continue to happen in 2024 and 2028 in 2032 it's going to be harder and harder for these miners to get more BTC so the data is showing you right now people believe in Bitcoin the liquid Supply holders continue to buy more and more Bitcoin while the available amount of BTC this is basically the big one that controls the price is getting lesser and lesser as the years go by and we've seen that Trend change guys so look is that what the data is showing you you can see what the future will be you know not Financial advice this is basically Bitcoin on chain data this is glass note if you guys want to check it out you can use our affiliate link that will be in the description below and also the comment section you get 10 off if you want to sign up for a glass note check that out if you guys want to but the proof is in the pudding check out this data thank you guys for watching all the way to the end of the video make sure to hit that like button if you found any value check out our patreon the link will be in the description below for exclusive content from the Bitcoin Bros Aaron from the Bitcoin Bros I'm out I'll see you guys in the next one and have a great rest of your day
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