저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 측정 오류와 연준·정부의 정책 완화로 자산 거품과 연금 위기 위험이 커지고 있다는 경고. 노동시장: 대격변(Great Resignation)의 원인으로 이민 감소, 학위 소지자와 일자리 임금 간 괴리, 베이비붐 세대의 대규모 저축(30~50조 달러)을 꼽았다. 인플레이션 측정: 빌 애크먼의 지적을 인용해 CPI의 자가주거 등가임대료(OER)가 설문 기반이라 부정확하다고 주장. 대형 단독임대 업체 보고 임대료 상승률은 17%인데 CPI 반영치는 3.5% 수준이라며, 보정 시 근원 CPI가 4.9%에서 9%, 헤드라인 CPI가 6.8%에서 10.1%가 됐을 것이라고 주장. 주택금융: 적격 모기지 상한이 100만 달러로 상향되며 자산 효과가 생기고, 주택담보대출(HELOC)로 현금이 빠져나가 대형 위험 시나리오로 이어질 수 있다고 우려. 연금과 기관: 마이너스 실질금리 환경에서 연금이 8% 수익률을 맞추려 장기 미래 현금흐름 상품에 투자했고, 금리 상승으로 채권·자산 가격이 하락하며 디레버리징(매도 압력)이 진행 중이라고 설명. 가치투자: 2008년 이후 저평가 자산(덤스터 다이빙)은 부진했고, 고마진·고성장 기술주가 가치를 가진다는 인식이 자리잡았다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 향후 5~6년 내 1929년과 유사한 대형 위기 가능성을 언급했으나 구체적 자산별 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
i think we did a pretty good job of unpacking the great resignation i think it was last pod so right remember like yeah there are three structural issues at play in the jobs front one is that you have this really meaningful under immigration that's happened because of trump the second was you've had a big mismatch between the degreed classes in america and the jobs that they can have for what they think they should earn meaning you go to school you get into all this debt you try to become a teacher or something and then you realize you can make more at an amazon warehouse crazy strange and then the fourth is you have all these boomers with an enormous amount of savings 30 40 50 trillion dollars who are pulling forward their retirement and also subsidizing their kids you put it all together there's less of an incentive to be in the job force unless you pay higher wages now let's just put a pin in that for a second i think the thing that saks talked about is really important which is that we have to really figure out whether inflation is transitory or it's persistent and it's here and i just want to bring up oh nick i'll send you these texts uh these the the the twitter links to this but uh bill ackman tweeted out these two things today which is that if you fan of the pod brilliant investor by the way uh great human being brilliant investor two very specific things he actually called out something that we've we also mentioned before which is that cpi is horribly calculated and it's really imprecise and if you unpack cpi there's something nice index the consumer price index there's something in there a component of it that's very important which is called the owner's equivalent rent right how much can somebody basically charge rent to other people the way that they calculate that which is 30 percent of the 30 30 of the calculation is they just survey a handful of people the problem is you don't need to survey because the actual exact data is available from single family rentals that report this number so their survey showed basically a much much smaller increase than what the actual increase is and let me just give it so the largest owners of nationwide single family rentals are reporting a 17 year-over-year rent increase wow the the oer that was calculated quote-unquote by survey in the cpi was 3.5 if you flow that through it means that core cpi actually went from 4.9 percent today to actually nine percent and the cpi print which was 6.8 was actually 10.1 so it just goes to show you we have sources of data that the government is not in a position to collect or measure we have horribly inaccurate econometric models that we use you know you know that phrase sort of and out so unfortunately you get very bad garbage you get very bad crappy data and now all of a sudden we're printing numbers we're supposed to make policy against those numbers but the numbers that underlie this decision-making is fundamentally flawed and it's flawed in the wrong direction the other thing that we talked about is that the fed basically changed the or the the government changed the rules on the percentage basically what qualifies as a conforming mortgage remember that and so now that's basically at a million dollars and if you think about it most americans you know 80 to 90 percent of their true underlying wealth is their home to the extent that they build you know a positive net worth and if you all of a sudden you know push up the upper bound on what a conforming mortgage is to a million a million dollars that effectively means it's and it's roughly about 20 that effectively means that you're moving people's net worth up by about four or five percent right and so and so if they take that and then they take that money out of their home via a heloc or an equity line of credit right oh my goodness credit and then you know to your point friedberg they spend it or they invest it or they you know it could be a real disaster scenario um in five or six years by the way no no this is more like 1929 kind of yeah there are a lot of individuals sorry well not individuals institutions that must own some of these inflation protected assets so we were already in a negative yield environment what are those folks supposed to do if they have to fund an eight percent return a year to pay the pensions of you know good people firefighters teachers you know it's you name it policemen etc right they were forced to invest in the kinds of funds that would then go out further and further out into the future to buy the promise of future cash flows and when all of a sudden a whole bunch of other assets that that they held which were supposed to be safe implodes on them right because all of a sudden inflation changes then the front end of the yield curve goes and all of a sudden all these assets when yields go up prices go down now the fireman's pension is like oh my gosh we just lost all this money we never thought we were going to lose and we're long all these you know crazy tech stocks and so then they're forced to sell so that their overall exposure goes down that's called degrosing okay and we've been going through a very painful process of this degrosing hedge funds are doing it um in droves you know the the problem with being a value investor over the last 15 years since 2008 is you were basically a dumpster diver and you got paid absolutely you know you didn't make anything because because they misunderstood what value was value isn't necessarily things that are cheap value is things that are things that are valuable and over the last 15 or 20 years what was once a question is now definitive which is that the things that are valuable tend to be technological because they're super high margin they grow really quickly they compound they create enormous cash flows at scale so agree the point is you couldn't own that stuff and if you sat on the sidelines you weren't meeting your eight percent hurdle you were all of a sudden looking at some risk of defaulting on your pension obligations so this is how this whole cycle brought us to you
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