저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 대규모 부채 확대와 통화 발행(부채 화폐화)으로 인해 돈의 가치가 기계적으로 하락하고 있으며, 현재 인플레이션 압력이 상품·서비스·금융자산 전반에 나타나는 국면이라고 진단한다. 통화량과 신용(구매력)이 재화·서비스·금융자산 양보다 빠르게 늘면 가격이 오르고 화폐 가치는 떨어진다는 것이 핵심 논리다. 최근 많은 사람이 현금 지원을 받아 종이 자산 순자산이 늘었지만 이는 인플레이션 국면의 일부다. 인플레이션 심리가 바뀌면 현금성 자산과 채권을 보유하려 하지 않게 된다. 실질 수익률이 마이너스가 되기 때문이며, 이는 화폐에 대한 수급 불균형을 악화시킨다. 달러의 역할에 대해서는 교환 수단과 가치 저장 수단 중 가치 저장 기능이 구조적 불균형과 재정 지출 요구로 인해 앞으로도 효과적이지 않을 것이라고 본다. 유럽·일본의 통화도 유사한 처지다. 달러 표시로 다른 자산 가격이 오르는 것은 실제로는 통화 가치 하락을 반영한다. 앞으로는 가치 저장 수단으로서 여러 화폐와 자산 간 경쟁이 심화되며, 부동산·주식·금·비트코인으로 자금이 이동할 것이다. 중국 위안화와 디지털 위안화의 사용이 점진적으로 늘어날 것으로 본다. 비트코인 등 암호화폐에 대한 관심 확대도 달러로부터 분산하려는 욕구의 표현이며, 이를 디지털 금으로 본다.
다듬은 글
- The large production of debt and debt monetization is an area that I specialize in in terms of understanding as a macro, global macro investor, and that produces what we're seeing in a mechanical way, which means that the value money goes down. In other words, you could look at it very simply that, if the quantity of money and credit, which is buying power, increases faster than the quantity of goods and services and financial assets, that the prices of goods, services and financial assets will rise, the value of money will go down.
And so we see that happening now. We're in the part of the cycle for that in which everybody received a lot of checks, and all that money coming in and people's paper net worth then went up because you got more money, and we're not used to inflation, but what is happening is then you're in that part of the cycle where there's that inflation pressure in goods, services and financial assets.
And what that has to do is then cause reactions, and those reactions are along the lines, people no longer will want to hold cash investments, they will not want to hold bond investments, because those will start to have a negative real return. And as that inflation psychology and that investment psychology changes, it changes the movement of money.
So it worsens the supply-demand picture for money. So you see, you are seeing the beginning of a supply-demand imbalance. - Do you think we've passed the tipping point? Do you think that the role of the dollar as global reserve currency is long term fundamentally unsustainable because of debt that's already been taken on?
- The role of the dollar as a storehold of wealth, there's two purposes of currency, a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth. Because of the imbalances and the supply-demand that is baked in, as we now need it, and also take the political issues and the types of spending that are being demanded, required, I might say, that means that that imbalance will exist.
And so you are, I think, for the foreseeable future, that it will not be an effective storehold of wealth as it is now not an effective storehold of wealth. That drives not just to other currencies, there are other currencies, but other countries are in this type of position too to some extent. And so you see Europe and Japan, which have the three old currencies and so on, in somewhat similar positions.
So you see the poor storehold of wealth being reflected in other items going up, because you measure them in dollars, but it's really the currency is going down. So we've entered a period of time in which the question will be what will be the money of the future? What will be the monies of the future?
Increasingly, there will be a competition of monies as a storehold of wealth. There'll be competitions for storeholds of wealth. Now, that could be your real estate, it could be your stocks, it could be your gold, it could be your Bitcoin, those are the choices. But those assets as a whole will be, you'll see the movement into those.
You will in other currencies such as China's renminbi, you will see gradually an increase in the usage of those currencies at the same time. But don't just look at it as other currency, look at it as other storeholds of wealth. - And you would argue that some of the explosion of excitement over Bitcoin and crypto currencies is just this general desire to move away, to diversify away from the dollar for the reasons you're mentioning.
- That's right, because a dollar, a cash and a bond, which is a promise to receive dollars, are being depreciated. And that's right. So you will see those as digital gold. You will see other currencies. You'll see probably China's renminbi, which will increasingly be, they'll have a digital renminbi, and there'll be choices. (upbeat music)
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