저자: YTFinance진행자 · 외국인
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팔란티어(PLTR)는 모닝스타 공정가치 31달러, FCF 모델 기준 17~31달러로 평가되며 장기 투자자에게 매력적이라는 주장. 4Q21 매출은 예상 상회, EPS는 소폭 하회. 2022년 1분기 매출 4.43억 달러, 연간 약 20억 달러 전망. 정부 매출 성장률 둔화(1Q 76%→4Q 26%)는 우려 요인이나 상업 고객은 49→147개로 급증. 2025년 매출 44억 달러, 2030년 121.6억 달러 추정 시 장기 목표가 68달러 이상 제시. 단기적으로는 8달러까지 하락 가능성 언급, 단기 수익 목적엔 부적합.
다듬은 글
and why analysts have recently released new price targets and price predictions for the pltr stock why morningstar still believes that palantir technologies is at least worth 31 dollars as their fair value price target we're also going to talk about their future projections for 2022 which includes their overall stock price the revenue metrics and a lot of other technical and financial metrics but when i interpret these metrics i will tell you if it's good or bad news now for more videos like this one on apalanteer technologies comment down below your pltr stock price target for the next 12 months currently the newest pltr stock price targets according to analysts is nine dollars on the low end while the current pltr stock trades at 11 so again ideally we would always want to buy stocks below the low end a bearish price target by analysts however the average price consensus for the stock in the company is and this is a 12-month price target 25 and 30 cents per share now if you've seen any of my other videos you would know that the low-end price target has actually fallen as of late due to their most recent earnings report which we will briefly touch on out of 10 analysts that i studied one analyst says that the pltr stock is a strong buying opportunity five analysts say to hold the stock at least five to ten years and four analysts say that this stock is either going to underperform the overall market or that it's a good selling opportunity right now however if we compare this to morningstar which is a very credible source they still are maintaining a 31 fair value price estimate for palantir technologies pltr stock despite fourth quarter results because they said that palantir's fourth quarter results actually exceeded their expectations specifically for their revenue growth but they did lag slightly in earnings because their earnings came in at around 2 cents per share and that would be their eps and although that is still good because it's positive it actually underperformed what analysts were projecting because analysts projected that palantir technologies would bring in at least four cents per share but morningstar says that palantir technologies more than makes up for this because of their 2022 projections which creates a solid buying opportunity in their opinion for long-term investors and a long-term investor is an investor who invests into a company based off of its future projections or the fundamentals of the company and they plan to hold the stock for at least five to ten years morningstar also thinks that the software creating insight from the deluge of data is going to make palantir invaluable in the future morningstar also likes how the company is acting very intelligently by hiring top-tier analysts due to their stock pace compensation and they are aggressively landing new commercial clients to diversify their revenue streams so overall morningstar is confident despite the t minimum at a fair value estimate of 31 so if we could buy the stock at 11 which is what the stock currently trades at this would be fantastic news but what are we expecting for 2022 well luckily we have another article that goes into that for the first quarter of 2022 we can anticipate 443 million dollars worth of revenues which is a substantial increase from what paluteer just recently brought in we can also count on a very good adjusted operating margin of 23 which is supposed to increase to 27 for the full year of 2022.
also for the full year of 2022 we can anticipate and project that palantir technologies could bring in around two billion dollars worth of revenues and this just goes to show that management's projections for palantir technologies turns out to be right because on average they believe that palutear technologies can bring in around a 30 cagr rate for their revenues through 2025 and we will also go over their 2025 and even 2030 revenue and free cash flows projections in this video the reason why we would want to do this is because with these future free cash flows and even revenues we can estimate a proper price target for palantir technologies so even though palantir technologies delivered very impressive earnings for their quarter four and full year 2021 earnings report investors are still taking money out of the stock which is why the stock price is currently falling we are also going to discuss why this sell-off is a clear overreaction because investors are misunderstanding their government numbers and the potential of their commercial clients as well so now i want to go in and start talking about the technicals and the data behind palantir technologies if you didn't already know palantir technologies has been falling over the last couple of months but recently the stock has absolutely plummeted and make no mistake the article says that shares could go lower and i anticipate the shares could drop to at least eight dollars per share however if you are a long-term investor and this is a long-term investment this could be a fantastic buying opportunity however on the flip side if you are trying to generate a quick profit by investing into the pltr stock this is probably not the company for you because one it is extremely risky and volatile right now as the company is scaling and this is a good future investment for you so if you really want to lower your risk and you want quick returns you may be better off in another company and then reinvesting back into palantir technologies at a later date most likely at around 2024.
so the author says of the seeking alpha article says that palantir technologies has always been a good long-term investment and the author doesn't care whether the stock price is between 12 or dollars he will continue to add to his position now i do wanna add a caveat here because i personally have a risk management rule and i don't allow any single company to make up more than five percent of my portfolio and normally when i start to invest into a company i only invest around one percent of my portfolio weight into a particular stock because i allow the stock to continuously fall so i can use the other four percent to average down my average cost until i eventually max out the investment at a five percent allocation or portfolio weight for my overall investments and then from then on i just leave it as a long-term investment because i only aggressively invest into very long-term companies i am not in here for the short term now with that being said you should also be diversified into blue chip stocks as well as really good etfs such as vo vti and even one of my favorite etfs which is mtum so if you can't handle the volatility of pltr stock and you don't have a long-term investment horizon palantir technologies is most likely not the stock for you quickly going over their 2021 earnings we see that palantir exceeded the revenue expectations and they are not only profitable except on a gap basis they also had amazing adjusted free cash flows their total revenues grew by around 41 their government revenue growth was 47 their commercial revenue growth was 34 for the united states their commercial revenue growth increased by 102 their adjusted operating income which had a margin of around 31 came in at 473 million dollars which is fantastic and their adjusted free cash flows came in at 424 million dollars and the reason why the adjusted free cash flows are so important is because analysts can use the fcf model to calculate price targets for the pltr stock and currently the stock could be worth anywhere from an fcf model basis between seventeen dollars all the way up to thirty one dollars because that's the exact thing that morningstar uses to calculate their thirty one dollar fare value along with the stewardship the management of the company and the overall economic mode of palantir technologies so at minimum the stock is worth 17 and on average the fair value is 31 according to morningstar which is fantastic news so despite a very impressive earnings report besides a slight miss on earnings per share the stock price continues to plummet and investors are saying that the momentum on their government side is lacking and that is what's causing investors to pull out of the company well if we actually look at the data we can only see this slightly now it has declined because on average palantir's government sector has actually declined to slightly each quarter so this is no surprise however the positive news is that it's still growing over a 20 cagr so we definitely want to keep our eye on their government sector and their government business and the contracts they're landing in 2022 so i will keep you all updated for that the reason we know that they have slowly teetered and declined in their government revenues is because in quarter one of 2021 they had an increase of around 76 percent for their government revenue growth for a quarter two that went down to 66 percent in quarter three it fell to 34 and in quarter four most recently it came in at 26 now the good news is that it is still growing it's just growing at a slightly slower rate however analysts anticipate that this will actually reverse more in the future and depending on what type of investor you are such as myself i don't even really care about the government revenues that much i am more focused on eclipse their government revenues which is fantastic news because it's an overall larger market in total palantir's commercial customer account grew by around 200 year-over-year from 49 customers all the way up to 147 customers and this is fantastic news palantir is also losing money on a gap basis or a generally accepted accounting principles level so there is a fair chance that they will also post losses again in 2022 however palantir has exceptional margins when it comes to the free cash flows which are actually positive and we can actually use their fcf multiple to determine how palantir stacks up against a multitude of other companies including companies like spotify unity software the trade desk datadog and workday although these are all in different market segments they are still very comparable however when compared to palantir palantir actually has a better fcf multiple than all of these other companies and overall this is very very bullish news this not only means that palantir is trading at a significant discount compared to these other companies it also means that palantir is anticipated to increase their fcf as time goes on management of pound tier is also still projecting around a 30 percent cagr or compounding annual growth rate year over year for their revenues for 2025.
this would mean that palantir could bring in around 4.4 billion dollars worth of revenue in 2025 and that means that their free cash flows could come in at around 917.31 million dollars for the fiscal year of 2025 which would absolutely be amazing for their stock price however we can even project out to 2030 if we extrapolate their overall declining revenue growth rate after 2025 because it's anticipated that their 30 revenue cagr or compounding annual growth rate will fall to 25 in the first year then the second year to 22 third year to 19 4th year to 17 and then to 15 percent so from 2026 all the way to 2030 so palantir still looks like a phenomenal company palantir could generate around 12.16 billion dollars worth of revenue in 2030 with around 2.53 billion dollars worth of free cash flows for the entire year so we could see an extremely high stock price for palantir technologies if you are a long-term investor because again if you are a long-term investor in palantir technologies you really want to know the growth metrics out to 2025 and 2030 and that is exactly what we have calculated right here specifically for their revenues and their free cash flows which we can use to make accurate price targets for the pltr stock so we are looking at price targets well above 68 dollars per share and although that may not sound like a lot from palunder's current stock price we could literally have an increase of around 600 percent from the current stock price and to 6x your money even in the span of five to ten years is absolutely phenomenal beating the overall market and the respected indexes i also want to add that palantir has virtually no debt they have 2.29 billion dollars worth of cash and or cash equivalents of liquidity on their balance sheet which means they have plenty of cash to grow their company reinvest into the company and they only have around 956.42 million dollars worth of total liabilities and they are absolutely primed for future growth so with that being said subscribe if you're a new smash that
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