저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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코스트코 실적 발표 직후 헤드라인 수치가 부진해 보였지만, 실제로는 큰 문제가 없으며 투자자들의 과도한 매도는 실수라는 결론. 헤드라인 실적 평가: 매출 성장률 5%는 월가 기대치에 약간 못 미쳤을 뿐 결정적 실망은 아니었고, 애널리스트 대다수가 리포트에서 긍정적으로 평가하며 목표가를 상향함. 회원 지표: 회원 수 9,850만명(전분기 9,720만명)으로 역대 최고, 미국 갱신율 90.9%로 매우 높아 고객 충성도가 강함. 이커머스: 성장률 19.8%로 가속 중. 상하이 매장: 개점 몇 주 만에 20만 회원 모집, 통상 신규 매장의 약 3배 속도이며 혼잡으로 개점 첫날 약 4시간 후 폐쇄. 관세 영향: 취급 품목이 약 3,800개로 일반 체인(약 15만개)보다 적어 관세 대응이 쉽다는 입장, 유럽산 치즈·올리브오일 관세 언급. 향후 전략: 중국 추가 매장은 2021년 이전 계획 없음, 신중한 확장 방침 유지. 주가 전망: 밸류에이션(PER 약 35배)이 높지만 장기 신뢰와 고객 가치 중심 경영을 근거로 조정을 매수 기회로 보며 긍정적 견해 제시. 출연자 Q&A 요약: 시청자 질문에 답하며 웨이페어 매도는 아쉽지만 이해할 만하다고 언급, 디크스스포팅굿즈(DKS)는 긍정적으로 평가하고 보유 권유, 프로 스포츠 관련 종목 및 경기 침체 우려에도 낙관 유지. 경영진 평가: 코스트코 경영진은 월가가 아닌 고객 신뢰와 가치를 우선시하며, 이 원칙이 장기적으로 주주 이익으로 이어진다고 주장. 출연자 전망: 코스트코는 훌륭한 회사이며 주가가 눌리면 매수하라는 긍정적 전망 유지.
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stocke Cosco a speak when costco reported its quota was almost universally panned by the media the results were led through allegedly and I but I was putting out a little quote mark Serra allegedly weaker than expected and the stock dropped almost 5% in pre-market trading let's just wait done here but because I read the cop school that before I knew the headlines were wrong the quarter was fine and this talk had to be bought in a week sure enough you made a quick ten points if you bought Costco into the panic you know what I think it's got more room to run so how does the stock go up when it's supposed to be down when all this commentary is negative okay when Costco reported the headline number looked to be far from good in fact some people thought were disturbing however if you've been following Costco for any amount of time any amount of time you had to know there were so many moving parts here to this quarter that the headline numbers were borderline meaningless sure of madra forecasting say a 7% same store sales growth and the absolute number comes in at 5% of big disappoint well that's one thing that's gonna freak people out but in reality Costco delivered 5% when Wall Street was looking for just a little bit more and it wasn't decisively disappointing at all which is why you had to dive into the console to make your own determination couldn't use the headlines although obviously judging by this many people did choose the headlines that's how I knew them core is better than it looks plus it didn't hurt that the analysts who followed Costco roundly approved of the quarter in their notes the next day in fact many of them actually raised the price targets even as the headlines would have had you believe that the numbers deserve to be cut and they would be taking the price targets down first Costco isn't just a retailer here that's what you need to know the heavily can't capture that see it's a club and that Club had record signups total card holders now 98.5 million up from ninety seven point two million last quarter renewal rates here in the United States are ridiculously high their ninety point nine percent that's a club that people want to stay in second ecommerce which has long been kind of an afterthought for Costco is now booming it's growing at a 19 point eight percent clip it's only getting stronger finally Costco just opened a new store in Shanghai and it was marked just listen to what CFO rich Galante who is so good had to say about this on the call quote due to overwhelming crowds it was actually closed about four hours into the opening day end quote the shanghai store racked up two hundred thousand members in a few weeks time that's an unheard-of pace typically other new stores will generate about a third of that over the same period now it wasn't perfect but I think a lot of the confusion here stems from the way the question-and-answer session unfolded on the call specifically it's about how the analysts ask their questions now do not get me wrong the analysts got this one right for the most part they stopped by Costco it's just right they race numbers right but their process created a misleading impression that reverberated throughout the media that evening and made you feel like the stock was going to get poleaxed you gotta understand if your worth is an analyst your first job is to come up with what's known as a model okay and that model lets you figure out how much money the company's going to earn then you look at the actual numbers to see if they're better or worse than your model so in Costco reported on Thursday night and some of the headline numbers were below the analysts consensus the average of what all the sell-side firms that cover the stock we're looking for people started dumping the stock left and right with Costco trading at a pretty elevated level to begin with 35 times Early's the sellers figured that the stock was due for some downgrades the darn thing was up about 42 percent for the year you're not expected to hold on to these gains after a blown quarter you expect the SU of downgrades but the analyst didn't go there on some level they actually understood the Costco has never run itself to please Wall Street no they don't play that game Costco knows that if they keep their customers happy it will ultimately benefit the shareholders and that believe me is one and then the next not shareholders benefit and customers may benefit matters has such a terrific record that their bill opens an enormous amount of trust a reservoir of trust it's never been a mistake to give Costco the benefit of the doubt and you can see it year for year however if you listen to the Q&A it was like pulling teeth repeatedly analysts were asking is it safe no is it not just purely asking for help on the margins in the gasoline business Costco sells tons of Cassidy very hard to understand because of the changing prices of gasoline they didn't get any help on that one oh they want to know if the tariffs are putting the company at a disadvantage all Clancy tells us is that their quote will be some impact given the cost pony sells 3,800 items far fewer than the typical chain Mike saw 150 thousand items greggy bleats at the tariffs will be easier to manage he mentions the new tariffs on european cheese and olive oil but he won't put him number one come just now my god we got these new tariffs why is any more worked up about this stuff well as cahuachi explains quote I think we are able to decide not to sell something and put something else in its place end quote again that's easier for Costco to do because they construe in a small number of bulk items see they don't need to have everything in every possible variety instead of focusing on tariffs cloth he wisely talked about something Wall Street in freaking out before early in the air but I seem to have forgotten about he's talking about the cost afraid he says that it's peaked and now going back down the analyst didn't seem to care at all at least not on this call what else even though the analysts love those numbers for this new steward of Shanghai Costco tells us they don't have plans to open more Chinese locations until 2021 why not because they like to be methodically kept saying pretty methodical about their opens this slow pace drove the analyst that's one of the master may be the expectations really exceeded given how slowly they're taking things but clency stress it clearly quote surpasses all of our very high expectations in quote still that doesn't mean Casso is gonna start putting out new stores before the ready they've got a process they are meticulous they don't just add stores to please Wall Street all right how about the mood of the consumer rather than wring his hands about the state of the economy collides he says and I quote I think if we all turned off the television stopped listening to everything every day we all be better and quote oh by the way cosmos old and this is not the first time a diamond ring for $200,000 is quitter a lot of carrots as the coal aunty said now who saw that coming management why because management knows that the customer you me has trust in Costco and the Costco offers real value trust value trust that sounds like something Benioff would say again Mises Nico CEO of Salesforce to presume that again though even though the analyst may have sound dubious on the call I'm here to tell you to buy it on squawk on the street right here as most of these analysts raise number written stay positive raise the price target and that's what you needed to know see as long as there were no down grades they couldn't take it lower most anything it happened was optically did a very minor number cut I don't think it was anything at all everyone who battled the stock anticipating a wave of slash estimates ended up well let's just say getting burned if you stuck with Costco as you should have as I've said over and over again if you gave management the benefit doubt then look at the money you made and that's a very short-term bottom line the next time you see a high quality company like Costco report a seemingly disappointing quarter don't rush to judgment listen to the conference call remember when you're going over the question and answer session that the analysts are just trying to put together models but even they can't think beyond those models when it really matters Costco is a fantastic company management told a great story of value and trust and I think the stocks terrific by anytime it gives you a pullback just like the one it gave you the other day let's go to DC in Georgia DC hi how you doing I am good how about you dc-10 great okay so do I get right into my question okay um I bought Wayfair right after I saw them rolling out marketing for free to delivery and I thought well that's smart so I look into that and in essence I sold off the gain three separate time but that was and then I sold the entire stock that was before I saw your segment about you know don't be pig butt but hold on to these hold on to the initial investment and let it ride so I did sell out like I said the initial investment but it was also because I'm a little older and a little uncomfortable with challenges that wait there must pay remains profitable right as they try to grow and compete with you know the giant Amazon so I would tell it out about six weeks ago that being said I was curious do you think that was a poor choice no no you had to do it I mean anyone who watch it I find I learned a tremendous amount my wife Lisa insisted we watch commercials I can't dial around in football I I learned a tremendous amount from the commercials I'm not kidding and sign has a whole commercial developed with just really build around a table guide dreaming at the table is that ever about AB littering Wayfarer somehow Wayfarer got under their skin and that's a bad thing to do ask by the way what happens when a sleeping giant wakes up like Nike or Amazon Nike with Under Armour you can't own the company they go after mat New York mat booyah Cramer how are you I am well how are you Matt good so I've had dks at Dick's Sporting Goods for probably the last four or five months that's performed very well but should I try to spell off and move into another company or do I wait for it to drop and buy it at a lower quality company no need to do that took aggressive action to remove guns that is Ed's fact that did that and snacks a man of great courage and I think he's also a fabulous operator at eleven times earnings I would you sell that done with a three percent yield you got a good one there I really like that one how about a Schwinn in California a Schwinn thank you Mike all those well I am it started to talk about this recession and other stuff I still remain optimistic what do you think about that a solution hard there are you know what you can buy some here it's only a few from the top and you buy more y-you know I gotta tell you Gary Friedman is so so good he's a warrior spam by the way and will mean we're with Greg from the Warriors he let us be right next to it I have to tell you I think that this is absolutely great stock tone and if you haven't been to the palace that is downtown holy came to a nine New York I've not been to Chicago I wouldn't go to that one to get freedom it's the real deal and so is the stock all right until analysts understand that Costco runs his business for its customers trust and value and not for wall speed their models will always be flawed that's the reality become to prior to prioritizes you the customer shareholder knowing that this shareholders gonna benefit the end anyway much more may have money yet might be a rollercoaster market but then Cedar Fair and Six Flags just add to the whiplash keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle I'm taking you for a ride after all the acquisitions off then my exclusive with ring central if you seen that thing orangey can it help bring in the returns even at these prices I've got the CEO and we've all got non-negotiable demands when it comes to relationship so what are the things that US refuses to settle on when it comes to China trade even as the president says this evening that a deal could be imminent well you gotta stick with me knit my breath [
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