저자: Finance Father · 외국인
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there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further can you go down i remember when polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record if it ever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 135 to 100 it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18 and this is coming with no debt i mean this company was just so overpriced it went down uh i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 a share to 16.
i said how much lower can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14. i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16. how much lower going to go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10.
well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh now i understand rapidly i would probably be still caddying or being working at the stop and shot but i it happened fast i was able to this was compressed and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kai's aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser cement they own kaiser broadcast and they own kaiser santa gravel kaiser engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747 i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but i said everything's fine and eventually this worked out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares that guys meant they passed their chairs and cars aluminum they passed out their public shares and kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got to 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when i went to eight what would you do one went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists haven't worked so far i've never seen them running in the side the psychological psychiatry fund i've never seen this for the uh with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so i they haven't seen the help uh i've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand they always come back uh this one is uh this one doesn't work either uh people think uh rca just about get back to its 1929 high when general electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those beauties uh uh floppy disks western union uh the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back uh here's another one here all the time it's three dollars how much can i lose i've had people call me up saying i'm thinking of buying this stock at three how much can i lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in a stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20 000 at full at 50 into the stock and you put 20 000 in a three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can i lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a reason researchers thought the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at walmart they're not sure at home depot they're not sure the great companies johnson johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 70.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown taps on this thing yet it's going to zero and they're selling short seven they're selling short at six at five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing is these people saying it's three how much lower can it go are you concerned about the volatility in the financial markets today do you think something needs to be done to reduce it i i love volatility i i think i remember when 1972 the market went from down dramatically and taco bell went from 14 to 1.
they had no debt they never had a restaurant close and i started buying at seven but i kept on to it and it went to one and uh was the largest position of magellan in 1978 one was bought out by 42 dollars by pepsicola i think it would have gone to 400 if they didn't buy it out i think volatility is terrific i think it is very i think these calls are very important i don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public i think that's not a very good thing but i think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the market's going to go up and down well the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25 000 years and some of them come out of left field and uh the market will go down and the market will go up so volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs i think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand what they own they can own mutual funds try to figure out mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basic corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year historically so corporate profits double about every nine years the stock market ought to double about every nine years so i think the next market's about 3800 today 3700 i'm pretty convinced the next 3 800 points will be up it won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points i don't know which way they're going so the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years it ought to double again in the eight or nine years after that because profits will go up eight percent a year and and stocks will fall that's all there is to it but you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history as the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years but once every two years the market falls ten percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls ten percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen you'll be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility market if you understand what you own
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