“Prepare for the Economic Future" .. Ray Dalio

요약 보기

미국의 경제 제재가 달러 기축통화 지위를 약화시키고 있으며, 인도·중국 등의 달러 탈피 움직임이 확산 중이다. 과거 1933년·1971년 달러 평가절하 사례처럼 부채 확대와 과잉 통화 발행이 인플레이션을 낳고 있고, 미국은 스태그플레이션 위험에 직면해 있다. 연준의 금리 인상은 인플레 억제와 성장 둔화 사이의 딜레마를 만들며 주식·채권 시장에 부담을 준다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. economic sanctions have become a powerful tool in the hands of Nations like the United States to influence the behavior of other countries especially in geopolitical matters however these sanctions also function as a form of economic Warfare deeply affecting not only the sanction countries but also the global economy one of the main impacts of these sanctions is related to the position of the dollar as the dominant currency in international trade in recent years as the US has stepped up its sanctions particularly ly against countries such as Iran Russia and Venezuela many of these countries have begun to look for alternatives to circumvent the Global Financial system that relies heavily on the dollar this is because most International transactions are still settled in dollars giving the US significant leverage over global trade however as countries seek economic independence and seek to protect their strategic interests the dollar based system has been challenged a clear example of this shift is India which has been engaging in direct trade with Russia avoiding the use of the dollar this move has been driven by sanctions imposed on the Russian financial sector which make it difficult for India to use the dollar in its International transactions by trading directly with Russia India not only avoids the impact of these sanctions but also strengthens its trade ties and increases its Financial autonomy this trend of dollarization has been growing with other countries such as China and Brazil exploring ways to reduce their dependence on the dollar in their International Trade transactions the implications of this economic War are profound if more countries adopt these strategies the Dollar's dominance in global trade could weaken over time this would bring about major changes to the balance of economic power in the world and the way Global economies are connected furthermore these measures create a precedent for other nations to consider alternative Solutions fostering the formation of independent economic blocks and financial systems that could shape a new global Financial order the devaluation of the dollar throughout history has had pivotal moments that shaped the global economy directly influencing markets governments and citizens one such moment occurred in 1971 when President Richard Nixon removed the United States from the gold standard this move known as the end of the Breton Woods agreement marked a fundamental transformation in the way the value of currencies was determined before that the value of the dollar was directly tied to Gold providing perceived stability in economies with Nixon's decision the dollar began to float freely in the market and this change resulted in a significant devaluation in addition to increasing Global monetary volatility the impact was profound leading to high inflation in the following years which required rigorous action by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the economy another similar historical moment occurred in 1933 during the presidency of Franklin D Roosevelt that year Roosevelt decided to partially delink the dollar from gold Banning private ownership of gold in the United States and ordering that all gold be delivered to the government at a fixed price this move allowed the government to control the money supply more flexibly but it also resulted in a significant devaluation of the dollar which helped combat deflation during the Great Depression however the impact was felt in the form of inflation as the purchasing power of the currency decreased these historical events mirror what we are witnessing today where High budget deficits coupled with intense money printing by central banks create an inflationary environment the response to the co9 pandemic for example resulted in unprecedented stimulus packages and a significant increase in public debt although these measures were implemented to avoid a more severe recession the side effect was a rise in inflation similar to what occurred after the dollar devaluations of 1933 and 1971 these historical parallels show how currency manipulation and expansion of the monetary base have long- lasting impacts especially in terms of loss of purchasing power and the creation of economic uncertainty for the future changes in the global monetary system have become an increasingly prominent Topic in international economic discussions several countries are adopting Innovative strategies to strengthen their own National currencies which has led to a real reconfiguration of Global Financial Dynamics China's use of the digital yuan is a striking example of this Trend illustrating how influential nations are moving away from the US dollar as the central reference this movement has profound consequences not only in terms of currency competition but also in terms of confidence in the dollar as a global store of value the hegemony of the dollar which for decades was a pillar of the international monetary system is being challenged as other countries seek Alternatives this diversification of currencies is causing a reassessment of investment patterns with confidence in the dollar decreasing investors are increasingly inclined to diversify their portfolios seeking alternative assets that can offer greater security and protection against the volatility of traditional currencies at the same time this scenario is also driving inflation in several regions AS Global monetary Dynamics are influenced by more complex and interconnected factors changes in the global monetary system do not only affect the economy of a specific Nation but reverberate in a much broader context transforming the way Capital flows are directed and how investors assess opportunities and risks the current economic climate in the United States is increasingly challenging with increasing signs that the country may be entering a stagflationary environment this term describes a dangerous combination of high inflation and stagnant or very slow economic growth which puts the economy in an extremely vulnerable position the root of this problem can be found in the rapid increase in debt and the significant PR printing of money that has occurred in recent years these actions although initially implemented to stimulate the economy during crises such as the pandemic ended up generating a worrying side effect inflation with more money in circulation the prices of goods and services Rose rapidly and the purchasing power of the currency decreased now the United States faces the difficult task of controlling this inflation without stifling economic growth the Federal Reserve the Central Bank of the United States is in the spotlight as it tries to balance its policies it has the delicate task of raising interest rates in the hope of slowing inflation since higher rates tend to reduce consumption and investment however this adjustment also has a side effect Rising interest rates can further slow an already fragile economy as a result companies may be forced to reduce hiring or investment which directly affects the labor market and economic growth as a whole another significant impact of rising interest rates is seen in the financial markets especially stocks and bonds when interest rates rise companies financing costs increase which can reduce their future profits causing investors to become more cautious the stock market which is already volatile can suffer declines while the bond market especially long-term bonds tends to depreciate as new bonds offer higher yields this situation places the United States in an economic dilemma if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates too much it risks risks pushing the economy into a full-blown recession if it acts too leniently inflation could continue to erode Americans purchasing power the challenge then is to find a balance that minimizes the impacts on both the cost of living and economic growth something that has so far proven extremely difficult