저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 마이클 버리의 폭락 경고는 과거에도 반복적으로 빗나갔으므로, 시장 타이밍 대신 장기 정액 적립 투자를 유지하겠다는 입장. [마이클 버리 경고 배경] 버리는 2008년 주택시장 붕괴를 예견해 큰 수익을 낸 인물이며, 최근 투자자들이 과도하게 낙관적이고 고평가 주식을 다시 사들이며 차입이 늘었다고 경고함. [버리 과거 예측의 적중 여부] 2015~2016년 미국 경제와 주택시장에 비관적이었으나 이후 주택가격은 급등했고 증시도 호황이었음. 2017년 5월에는 폭락이 시간문제라고 했지만 S&P 500은 이후 약 19%, 현재 기준 약 74% 상승. 2020년 코로나 폭락은 있었으나 예측 시점과 맞지 않음. [차트 분석] 2022년 들어 하락 후 반등, 재하락의 패턴 반복. 6월 중순 이후 S&P 500 약 14% 반등, 현재 6월 초 저항 수준 부근이며 돌파 여부를 관찰 중이라고 함. [통계적 주장] 제2차 세계대전 이후 S&P 500이 분기 15% 이상 하락한 뒤 다음 분기·반기·1년은 대체로 9/10 확률로 플러스였다고 언급. [투자 원칙] 폭락 예언은 언젠가 맞을 수밖에 없으므로 무시해야 하며, 시장 타이밍은 불가능하다고 강조. S&P 500 ETF 장기 연평균 약 7~8% 수익을 기대하고 변동성을 감내. [실행 내역] 매달 첫 주 적립 방식으로 DEGIRO에서 Strongroad ETF, Digital Security ETF, India ETF, AS ETF, Vanguard All-World ETF, S&P 500 ETF를 약 2,000유로 규모로 매수. 포트폴리오 총액 약 4만1천 유로, 현재 평가손익 약 -2,700유로(과거 약 -7,000유로에서 회복). [조건/리스크] 영상 내 명시적 리스크는 폭락·추가 하락 가능성(30~40%)이며, 본인도 예측 불가라고 인정. 광고(DEGIRO·BUX 가입 프로모션) 언급 포함. [출연자 전망] 단기 방향 예측은 명확하지 않고 장기 상승을 전제로 한 적립 지속 의향만 표명.
다듬은 글
Focus here, and it's great to have you watching the new episode of the Portfolio Show. Maybe you've already seen it pass by. Michael Burry, who is of course known for his big short position in 2008 because he saw the housing market collapse coming. He has now indicated again that too many investors are too optimistic right now and that we are going to experience a crash regardless.
That is what I want to address today. So let's quickly start the video. My portfolio is still in the red. At this moment, minus € 2,700. But if you are a regular viewer of this series, you know that it was much deeper in the red a while ago. Around about € 7,000. So the recovery in the stock market, for both the indices and the individual stocks of course, is something I can see very clearly in my portfolio.
Because if I look at my ETFs, for example, there was a very long time that not a single ETF was in the green. Now there are three. And the ETF called the digital security ETF is also getting close again. So you can see slowly but surely that the market is climbing back up a little bit . Because if we look at the S&P 500 chart, it is clearly obvious that there has been a massive bounce since mid-June.
Because you're talking about a 14%increase. We are now at a very important level. Namely, at the beginning of June, we spent a few days around this level where we are now. Will this provide resistance, or will we actually shoot through it in the coming week and continue to rise? So far, 2022 has been very clear.
Every time, a significant drop, a bounce, and we drop further. Subsequently, there was another decent bounce that went a little higher than the previous bounce, but we dropped even further. Then another bounce, and we dropped further again. So it is a bit of a wait-and-see what is going to happen at this moment.
But if we are to believe what Michael Burry says, it is actually a matter of time before we drop much further. Because the Big Short investor—you've probably seen the movie at some point. One of the most popular movies when it comes to financial markets. He indicates a bit that market cynicism is back in the market.
That too many people just want to buy overvalued stocks again. That too many people are taking too many risks. Borrowed money. Money is still cheap, et cetera. And he is warning a bit that we could drop again soon. Because, for example, the silliness is back. For instance, after 1929, after 1968, after 2000 and 2008, we saw it completely disappear after the crash.
But he is now indicating that this silliness hasn't disappeared yet, after the corona crash, of course. It is, of course, difficult to time the market, but Michael Burry tries to do it very often. And people often listen to him because he once made a huge splash, as he was one of the few who saw what was coming in the American housing market in 2008.
He took a short position on it, and it yielded a massive amount of money. So, it's not that strange that many people have listened to Michael Burry ever since, because he was one of the few who saw it coming. But has he actually been right very often in recent years? Well, before I go into that further, if you are looking for a platform to start investing, I invest with DEGIRO and BUX .
And for both, there is a promotion via a link in the description. Because if you register with DEGIRO before August 31st, you will get transaction costs incurred through September 30th refunded, up to a maximum of € 100. And if you decide to register with BUX via the link in the description, you get a free share upon registration, which can be worth up to € 200.
I will leave a link for both in the description. And if you decide to register via the links, you take advantage of the promotion. And on top of that, you also support the channel. It doesn't cost you anything extra, but it allows me to keep making these kinds of videos, which I will always appreciate.
Alright, let's go back in time for a moment to see what Michael Burry has often shouted in recent years . And he has very often called for a crash. In many different years, he says every time: "Well, I am not optimistic. A crash is just a matter of time." So, he constantly repeats himself. And as we know, on the stock market, a crash naturally happens every few years.
So, if you keep repeating that every year, you will eventually be right at some point. For example, in 2015 and 2016, he indicated that he was anything but optimistic about the American economy and was also worried about the housing market. Well, since then, the housing market has exploded, and prices have risen gigantically.
So, that didn't happen. And besides that, it was, of course, also a fantastic year for the stock market. Because if we go back in time now, you missed out on a lot of returns. If you might have listened to Michael Burry and thought: "Okay, he expects this will indeed be a bad year. Let me stop investing for a while or let me sell my positions." Then you have missed out on a lot of returns.
But in 2016, he was off the mark. But for example, in 2017, he also indicated in the month of May that, well, a stock market crash, you can't avoid that. That is truly just a matter of time. Well, at one point there was of course a crash, but that wasn't until 2020 and that was obviously due to corona, and in 2017 he also indicated there would be a global financial meltdown on top of a third world war.
And he also said that a stock market crash, well, that shouldn't surprise anyone. It’s actually just a matter of waiting a few days or a few weeks. That didn't happen . Because if we look for a moment at the S&P 500 in May 2017, that was when he indicated that it was really just a matter of time. So let's take a look, let's see.
May, that is, that is indeed here. Well, as you can see, if we take that peak at the beginning of 2018, so we're talking about a bit more than half a year, it already rose by more than 19%. If we extend that, for example, to where we are now, you see an increase of 74%. But it should be clear that since then, a crash did eventually occur, or rather a correction that started at the end of 2018, but it didn't end up lower than it was at the moment he announced it.
And if you announce one day that a stock crash is just a matter of time, you don't expect it to still be at the same point two years later, only to bounce back up again. That, that is of course not the case. If you talk about a crash, he naturally assumes, for example, a 50%or 40%drop. Well, then you have, for instance, from that level , let's see.
That was indeed in May. Let me look. Let’s take this level here. Then you are talking about a drop of, let's say, about 45%. Well, something like that didn't happen, but he keeps repeating it every time. And Musk has also said it once or twice. He just calls Michael Burry a broken clock . Because a broken clock is just correct twice a day.
And if you keep repeating yourself, a crash will naturally happen eventually. Because we all know that. If we zoom out on the S& P 500—I’ll just pull up the weekly chart and zoom way out—it becomes clear that there have been many different crashes. For example, we've experienced the dot-com crash, the housing crisis, the corona crash, and so on.
Every so often, this happens in the stock market. And if you repeat every year that a crash is coming, there will eventually come a time when you are actually right. And that is what strikes me when I look at the last few years with Michael Burry. Every year he just says that things are going to go completely wrong.
That he is not optimistic. A crash is coming. And yes, every so often he is right, but often he is wrong. And if we also look, just for convenience, at these figures: if a quarter of the S&P 500 experiences a decline of 15%or more after World War II, you see that nine out of 10 times the next quarter, the next half-year, and also the following year close positively, namely in the green.
But you often notice that precisely when we experience a quarter with a decline of 15%or more for the S&P 500, many people decide, "Okay, I'm stopping investing" or "I'm going to sell my positions." Because many people are in a negative state of mind at that point. But if we look at these figures, for example, it should be clear that if we have experienced a massive decline in a quarter, you very often see a significant bounce afterwards.
It doesn't necessarily mean that we will rise significantly in the coming quarter, half-year, and year. But it should be clear that a significant bounce has already taken place at this moment. So, it is very difficult to be smarter than the market. And I think it is also unwise to let all kinds of doomsday scenarios play out in your head.
To follow a lot of those kinds of people. Because there are always people on the internet saying: "The giant crash is really going to happen now." If it doesn't happen now, well, then next year. And if it hasn't happened next year, well, then the year after. And at some point, such a person will eventually be right.
That, of course, does not mean that it is the right choice in the long term to stop investing. Because if people expect a giant crash to happen in the stock market, they won't invest or they will indeed take a short position. But with this video, I want to make it clear that crashes always happen. We cannot get around that, but no one can tell you when it will happen.
So it is important that you always keep that in mind. Sure. You might even think that the experts know exactly what is going to happen, like a Michael Burry or a Warren Buffett. But even they cannot time the market. So trying to do it yourself is simply dangerous. And I also know that a lot of people have sold many stocks lately.
I saw some comments passing by where people said: "Yeah, I sold everything, because the worst year is coming." Since then, we have only gone up. Yes, that is truly the risk of timing the market. And if you want to take that risk, that is completely up to you, of course. But then you really can't complain if we start going up again, because it's just a casino at that point.
So despite Michael Burry's stories over the last few years that we are going to crash and his current claims that the market is getting a bit crazy again, I still decide to just keep investing. Because I am really looking at the long term, and could it mean that we, for example, experience a massive drop now and drop another 30 or 40%from this point?
That can always happen. I just really don't know. But what I do know is that long-term investing, for instance in an S&P 500 ETF, has achieved fantastic results over the last 70 years. Of course, past results are no guarantee for the future, but it gives me a decent indication of what I can roughly expect in the long run.
And that is about 7 to 8%return on an annual basis. And that also means there will be phases where your stock portfolio experiences a massive drop because, for example, we crash hard or experience a correction like the one we are seeing now. You have to accept that, be able to deal with it, and therefore stick to that long-term vision.
That is exactly what I do. I am not busy selling everything one week just to buy back in at a lower point. That doesn't interest me at all. What does interest me is investing my monthly amount again into the ETFs that I have naturally been buying for the last, well, 14 months now. So that is what I am going to do again now.
The Strongroad ETF is being expanded, and slowly but surely, these are starting to become serious positions. Because my total portfolio is now just over € 41,000. I will now invest about € 2,000 again. So that brings me over € 43,000. So it is a portfolio of a decent size. Let's see. If I set it at € 51.37, it will probably go through.
It is five of them , because I want to be around € 250. I place the order. It is, of course, an ETF that is part of the DEGIRO core selection, which naturally means I don't have to pay transaction fees. The Digital Security ETF, I currently have one of those. That has to do with the fact that the price is quite low.
Let me set it at € 6.40. And I have already calculated it all in advance. It's not that I'm some kind of math genius, but I can get 39 of them. Place order. So that one has been executed as well. Yes, executed indeed at € 6.38. Then I move on to the India ETF. As you can see from the value, that is an ETF that is worth a bit less.
That is because I added it later to this public portfolio, so it has only been part of my monthly plan to buy ETFs for a few months. But I currently have 410 of them. That also has to do with the fact that it is a low price. At € 7.17, it will go through. Let's see. I can buy 35 units. € 250. Then it confirms.
Then I have one other ETF left where I also invest € 250. That is the AS ETF . It is currently 7.5%in the red. And I think since the moment I started loading up on this ETF, it has only gone down. I don't think it has ever been in the green. And so I decide to buy three of them. Because at the moment, I think last month I bought four of them.
And it's a bit of a disadvantage with such a high price that if you want to buy € 250, well, you have to be a bit creative with it. One month three, the next month four again. I confirm that. And then I have two more ETFs to go. And those are, of course, the ETFs I invest the most in. You can also see that from the total value.
8100 for the Vanguard All-World and 8200 for the S&P 500 ETF. I'm buying five now. That is, of course, the advantage of the decline we've experienced over the last few months, that it's a bit easier. Because if I look at the last year, at one point there was a peak of € 110. Yeah, then I had to buy five one week, uh, one month, then four again.
Now I can just buy five, even if it's a little bit more than the planned € 500. And then I have one more to go, and that is, of course, the S&P 500 ETF. It is currently 6.5%in the green. A month and a half ago, it was still in the red. That certainly shows that we've experienced quite a bounce. I'll set the limit to € 77, which allows me to buy six, bringing me to € 462.
Then I place the order. I hit confirm, and that means I've bought my ETFs again, which I do every month during the first week. And whatever happens on the stock market at that moment, whether there are higher inflation figures, for example, or consumer confidence is declining, or Michael Burry suggests that a crash is just a matter of time.
It doesn't matter to me at all. I try to turn a deaf ear to all that and just keep buying every month and carry on doing that for years. And naturally, I will start to see the returns from that . For now, we've reached the end of this episode of the Portfolio Show. If you would like to see more videos like this, definitely don't forget to subscribe.
I want to thank you for watching and I look forward to seeing you in the next video.
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