Warren Buffett Discusses The Concept of Owner Earnings and Float at the 1997 BRK AGM (1997 Q14 am)

요약 보기

이 영상은 1997년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 질의응답 중 워런 버핏의 '소유주 이익(owner earnings)' 개념 설명을 다룬다. 보고된 이익과 소유주 이익의 관계 버핏은 자회사 및 주요 피투자회사의 보고 이익(무형자산 상각 등 주요 매수가격배분 조정을 제외하면)이 기업의 실질 이익을 꽤 잘 보여준다고 설명한다. 코카콜라의 광고비처럼 자산을 창출하는 지출도 있으나, 저인플레이션 환경에서 버크셔가 보유한 업종에서는 보고 이익에 무형자산 상각을 더한 값이 소유주 이익의 좋은 근사치라고 본다. 계속 재투자가 필요한 사업 회피 과거 경험 이후 버크셔는 현상 유지를 위해 대규모 강제 재투자가 필요한 사업을 피해 왔다고 밝힌다. 가이코(GEICO)와 보험 플로트 가이코의 본질가치 증가폭은 연간 이익보다 크다고 설명한다. 보험 플로트가 동일한 유형의 계약자로 유지되는 한 보고 이익을 넘어서는 추가 본질가치 증가 요소가 있다고 본다. 1967년 약 2천만 달러였던 플로트가 이후 크게 늘어나면서, 플로트 축적을 통해 보고 이익 이상의 이익이 발생해 왔다는 취지다. 룩스루(look-through) 이익의 한계 룩스루 이익은 매우 대략적인 추정치이며 소수점 단위의 정밀성을 믿어서는 안 된다고 강조한다. 다만 매년 실제 이익 흐름과 진전 속도를 가늠하는 좋은 지표가 된다고 본다. 슈퍼캣(초대형 재해) 보험 조정 슈퍼캣 보험 사업은 가끔 매우 나쁜 해가 발생하므로, 좋은 해의 이익에서 이를 감안해 차감해야 하며 나쁜 해를 미래에 투영해서는 안 된다고 설명한다. 이 영상은 특정 자산의 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언이 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. compulsory reinvestment oh oh back on the uh it goes back some years on that description yeah the in in the case of the businesses that we're in both wholly owned and major investee companies we regard the reported earnings with the exception of the some major purchase accounting adjustment which will usually be an amortization of intangible side and we regard the reported earnings actually the reported earnings plus plus or minus but usually plus purchase accounting adjustments to be a pretty good representation of the real earnings of the business now you can make the argument that when coca-cola is spending a ton of money each year in marketing and advertising that they're expensing that really a portion of that's creating an asset just as if they were building a factory because it is it is creating more value for the company in the future in addition to doing something for them in the present and i i wouldn't argue with that but of course that was true in the past too and if you capitalize those expenditures in those earlier years you'd be amortizing the cost of them at the present time i think with a relatively low inflation situation with the kind of businesses we own uh i think that reported earnings plus amortization of any well it's really amortization of intangibles other purchase accounting adjustments usually aren't that important i would say that that they give a good representation to us of owner earnings uh can you think of any exceptions in our businesses particularly charlie no we have uh after some unpleasant early experience we have tried to avoid places where there was a lot of compulsory reinvestment just in order to stand still and but there are businesses out there that are still like that it's just that we don't have any yeah i would say and one i would say that in the case of geico for example the earnings the gain in intrinsic value will be substantially greater than represented by the annual earnings when you whether you want to call that extra amount or owner earnings or not it's another question but but as we build float from that business as long as it's represented by the same kind of policyholders that we've had in the past there is an added element to the gain in intrinsic value that goes well beyond uh the reported earnings for the year but whether you want to really think of that as earnings or whether you just want to think of that as an increment to intrinsic value you know i sort of believe to you but i but i would say that there's no question that in our insurance business where our float was was 20 million dollars or so when we went into it in 1967 and where it is now that that there have been earnings in effect through the buildup of the float that have been uh above and beyond uh the reported earnings that we've given to you i think our look through earnings are they're very rough and we don't try to we don't we don't believe in carrying things out to four decimal places where you know we we really don't know what the first digit is very well so uh i don't want i don't want to i don't i never want you to think of them as too precise but i think they give a a good rough indication of the actual earnings that are taking place attributable are to our situation every year and i think the pace at which they move gives you a good idea as to the progress or the lack of progress that that we've made the only big adjustment i would make in those is that in the super cat insurance business we're going to have a really bad year occasionally and and you probably should take something off all of the good years and you probably should not regard when the bad year comes you should not regard that as as as something to be projected into the future charlie no more no more zone nine