저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션은 전 세계적으로 확산되며 지속될 것이고, 미국 정부의 과도한 통화 증발과 부채 때문에 금리가 오르면 경제 전반이 타격을 받을 것이라는 경고. 인플레이션 전망: 음식·외식·서비스 등 물가는 이미 오르고 있으며, 중간중간 진정기는 있어도 추세적 상승은 계속될 것이라고 봄. 대규모 통화 증발은 항상 높은 인플레이션을 낳았다고 주장. 워싱턴의 '걱정 말라'는 말을 믿으면 자기방어를 소홀히 하게 된다며 본인은 인플레이션에 대비해 자신을 보호하고 있다고 밝힘. 1980년대 교훈: 폴 볼커가 금리를 20% 이상으로 올려 인플레이션을 잡았고 그 과정에서 경제는 크게 침체했으나 원자재 가격이 하락하며 인플레이션이 한동안 진정됨. 당시 지도자(카터)가 볼커에게 필요한 것을 하라고 지지했던 점을 언급하며, 현 정책 당국에는 그런 리더십과 식견이 없다고 비판. 부채와 금리 리스크: 미국은 역사상 가장 큰 채무국이며 금리가 오르면 이자 부담이 폭등한다고 경고. 코네티컷·일리노이 등 일부 주는 사실상 파산 상태이며 금리 상승 시 사업 붕괴 가능. 금리 상승은 천천히 시작되지만 결국 주택 보유자, 자동차 구매자 등 모든 사람에게 영향을 준다고 봄. 출연자 전망 요약: 인플레이션 지속과 금리 상승 리스크 모두 부정적 시각이며, 구체적 종목·지수 가격 전망은 언급되지 않음. 리스크 요인: 정부의 대규모 재정·통화 정책, 인프라 법안 등 추가 부양책, 연준 대차대조표 확대, 금리 상승에 따른 부채 부담.
다듬은 글
think act and prosper you are now tuned into the money level show uh so we we've seen inflation picking up we've seen numbers um the cpi uh starting to reflect some some degree of inflation here in the u.s i'm not sure how things are over in singapore um but how do you think this this plays out um and uh from when i was watching i think i watched uh yeah i actually watched your interview with uh george gammon and he asked you about inflation in the 70s uh so do you see any similarities or or things that you're kind of looking out for in regards to inflation i mean obviously you're in a different country but how do you see this playing out for people in the u.s it's going to wind up the same way everywhere price is already starting to go up it doesn't matter what's entertainment or education or go to the dentist anything you know prices are going up food go go to a restaurant go to the supermarket and you would say prices are going up that will continue they won't go up every day every week there will be times when things calm down but when you have so much money printing as we've had recently it has always led to higher inflation maybe it won't this time in washington they say don't worry we have things under control if you believe them you won't worry and you you won't worry about inflation or protecting yourself i continue to protect myself from inflation yeah i've seen uh kind of doing some some research on inflation and how they fought it in the 80s when paul volcker raised interest rates um back then they they didn't have as much debt so how does raising the interest rates affect uh how how much level of debt we have now uh because it seems like you know we're getting stimulus out the stimulus we're getting more uh infrastructure packages trying to pass and things like that and so the debt seems like it's skyrocketing we've seen the fed's balance sheet go up um do the fed have have any tools i mean i don't know if they can raise rates or what what what's kind of your take on that well america is the largest debtor nation in world history no nation has ever been this deep in debt and if or when interest rates go higher many people are going to go i mean connecticut is bankrupt illinois is bankrupt many places are actually bankrupt now and when interest rates go higher it's going to put them out of business i don't like saying any of this daryl i'm an american like you but i have to face facts and the u.s government when interest rates go higher it's interest rate is going to absolutely go through the roof and it's going to affect all of us whether we're homeowners or whatever whatever we are carve we buy a car anything is going to have an effect on us the way it has always worked is it starts slow and people some people start to notice it but others don't but they think it's temporary and the government always says don't worry it's temporary we have things under but eventually what happened in the 70s you mentioned paul volcker he was the head of the central bank it was really serious everywhere especially in the us and for whatever reason jimmy carter who was the president at the time said to paul volcker you do whatever you have to do i will be behind you i will protect you you do whatever you have to do now poker knew what he had to do interest rates went to over 20 percent that's not a typo vocal took interest rates higher and higher and higher and of course it crushed the economy but when the economy was crushed the price of everything oil copper everything the prices came down and we didn't have inflation for a while again yeah yeah definitely one thing that right now we don't have anybody i don't know if jimmy carter was smart but he was smart enough to say to volcker you do whatever you have to do and volcker knew what he had to do now biden is certainly not that smart the head of the central bank in america is certainly not as smart as paul volcker was so who knows what these guys would do they're still telling us don't worry it's not happening yeah yeah uh i think uh i think it was milton friedman said uh nothing's more permanent than a temporary government program you
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