저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 채머스는 연준의 긴축과 과거 부양으로 불어난 유동성이 빠지는 과정이므로 암호화폐 약세는 수개월~수년 지속될 것이라고 본다. 거시 배경: 2008년 이후 각국 정부가 약 30~35조 달러 규모의 돈을 경제에 공급했고, 이는 현제 자산 가격을 인위적으로 끌어올린 요인이다. 이를 회수하는 데 약 3년이 걸릴 수 있다. 하락 전망: 연준이 75bp를 올리는 것으로 끝나지 않고 추가 인상이 이어질 수 있으며, 바닥은 18개월 이상 뒤일 수도 있다는 견해다. 시장은 변동성이 큰 조정장이 될 것으로 본다. 경기침체: 미국 경기침체 가능성이 커지고 있으며, 기간은 짧을 수도 길 수도 있다고 언급한다. 비트코인: 6.8만 달러 고점에서 2만 달러대로 급락했고, 회복에는 몇 달에서 수년이 걸릴 수 있다. 향후 추가 하락 가능성이 있으며 정확한 바닥은 예측 불가하다고 본다. 과거 S&P500처럼 회복을 기다릴 가치가 있다는 언급도 있다. 규제·거래소: 바이낸스 관련 소송 주체조차 특정하기 어려운 불투명성을 지적하며, 증권이냐 상품이냐에 따라 SEC/CFTC 관할이 갈리므로 의회의 입법 체계가 필요하다고 본다. 거래소 내부: 거래소 운영 조직의 내부자 거래 및 주문 흐름 선행매매(front running) 가능성을 문제 삼으며, 이로 인해 거래소들이 막대한 수익을 냈다고 주장한다. 토큰 발행 구조: 벤처 투자사들이 소량의 지분을 높은 가격에 투자하고 토큰을 받아 즉시 매도하는 방식의 사기성 거래를 지적한다. 리스크: 금리 상승과 규제 강화, 중국의 채굴 단속 등이 암호화폐 약세 요인으로 거론된다. 면책: 영상 내용은 교육 목적이며 투자 조언이 아니라는 고지가 있다.
다듬은 글
crypto has had a rough first half of 2022 but few days have been as bad for the industry built around digital currencies the market cap of cryptocurrencies fell below one trillion dollars from three trillion dollars at its peak in november as a result of trading platforms stopping withdrawals businesses cutting jobs and panic investors selling off their holdings we are in worse crypto position than we thought bitcoin has dropped below 21 000 for the first time in 18 months investors are moving away from the riskiest assets as a result of macroeconomics headwinds and rising interest rates which is what has caused the sell-off but it gets even worse stay tuned as chamath will enlighten you on why this is happening and what's to come well there's a lot to say so uh bear with me for a second but um the thing that you have to do before you talk about what is happening now i think it's probably useful to go back and you have to really start at the end of the great financial crisis and the reason is there was a bunch of people coming out of the gfc who confused what the us government and some european governments were doing at the time there was the risk of a huge financial contagion and so the u.s stepped in and the federal reserve started to use their balance sheet to buy toxic assets right and the ecb did that and i think japan did that as well anyways a bunch of banks did it i mean a bunch of governments did it and then there was this body of pseudoscientist certificate economists who coined this thing called modern monetary theory which basically said hey you can keep printing money and introducing it into the economy to smooth things out and to actually drive long-term growth and it turns out that a bunch of government officials fell for it and if you fast forward to 2022 so 14 years later you know governments around the world had printed something to the tune of about 30 35 odd trillion dollars of money into the economy that should have never been there so the thing to remember is like we have not necessarily just been obfuscating true supply demand in the last six or eight months when we've been talking about a recession or inflation we've been actually doing it since 2008 it's just that it's been building up in the system so one of the things that we have to realize is that all of that money somehow needs to get destroyed in some way shape or form if the true economic equilibrium is meant to be found what is true supply what is true demand in the absence of government sloshing money around trying to prop up things that should not be propped up or buying votes or all the griffs that these folks have engaged in in the last you know decade and a half have to get undone so that's the backdrop so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost you know i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's going to take three years probably of the slow meticulous you know running off of money you know not reintroducing new money so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out now that's separate from and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear market that we're in right and so you have to look at asset prices today as a microcosm of a much larger trend that has to be about fake money pushing asset prices up and now taking all that fake money out and finding out what the real price of something is and i just don't think that takes six months so for all the people that were you know fingers crossed hoping that this would be the end of it fed raises 75 we're done with this they're going to raise 75 more i just think that's not how it's probably going to be it's going to take you know 24 36 months that may mean the bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months so i think it's a we're in for a lot of choppy um market action the pain of a recession is different for everyone just like the pain of an unhappy family that will probably be confirmed by the following one which economists believe will become more likely by the end of next year a u.s recession could be concise but it also could last a while for months cryptocurrency has struggled several factors have contributed to this ranging from rising inflation to increased regulation and crackdowns on cryptocurrency mining in countries such as china it will probably take some time to recover given the price drop from the all-time high of 68 thousand dollars to the current level of twenty thousand dollars in chamath's opinion it will most likely take a few months or a couple of years so many of these venture firms in running these sketchy deals where they would put in some amount of money this is my understanding of the scam because it was explained to me you put in a little bit of equity at some crazy price and then you get these tokens and apparently there's no like you can just sell these tokens day one and so what happens is like you you price the equity but it's meaningless because really what you're getting is the right to get some amount of these tokens the price is crazy you sell it and then you just kind of walk away and apparently you know you do these deals where you just rinse and repeat this thing um well wait wait till that gets exposed there's an article i think it was in bloomberg um about folks trying to figure out how to get um a lawsuit filed against binance and the problem was that they didn't even know what entity to sue um it's not clear who owns what and you know what owns the other and who the ultimate look through ownership structure is and um and it doesn't mean that binance is guilty of anything but the article was just you know showing how there was a u.s investor who lost 1.2 million dollars who wanted to file a lawsuit and they have every right to do that um couldn't even find the corporate entity to to actually file this lawsuit against so if that's what's happening in a trillion dollar market there's i mean it's gonna be a lot of people it's free it's it's a lot of oversight if it's a security it has to be governed by the sec if it's a future or commodity it's the cftc and the problem is we need congress to pass some legislative framework that puts the puck in one side of the of the arena a rink or the other yeah and otherwise otherwise all this gray is going to exist for a long time and people you know if if governments really hate it when retail investors lose money well watch out because they just had two trillion dollars it doesn't exist in crypto i mean if they want to really find uh the honey pots here i mean it's the worst kept secret in crypto how much insider trading is going on amongst the organizations that run the exchanges and their side pockets that they use to to manage liquidity i mean this is the it's the biggest thing that's been happening in crypto this is my understanding though it's not illegal to front run crypto trade so most of these organizations that that run an exchange right compete for order flow and they're able to just look at that order flow and then they front run the trade and they're on the other side of that so they're always making money and so they were making tens of billions of dollars all these exchanges were in an environment with higher interest rates bitcoin is likely to decline even further much like the us benchmark snp 500 which has declined numerous times over the past century before making a strong comeback the experts are unable to predict where bitcoin will ultimately bottom out it may be a good idea to hang on until the investment rallies just like with any investment you expect to gain considering that bear markets typically offer the lowest asset prices the trick is to select assets that will increase in value once the market begins to recover what do you think about all this with this we have come to an end the content in this video is for educational purposes only and hence should not be considered financial advice all the financial decisions should be made after doing your wide spectrum research also make sure that you like this video comment down your thoughts regarding this and don't forget to subscribe to our channel to stay updated about the latest videos until then you
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