This is a long-term bull market, says Ed Yardeni

요약 보기

Yardeni는 이번 강세장이 장기 상승장이라고 주장하며, 최근 매그니피센트7 집중에서 시장 확산(S&P500 동일가중 신고가)으로의 전환이 건전하다고 봄. 투자자 강세/약세 비율(4.2)이 과열권이나 모멘텀 매매는 약화될 것으로 전망. 경기침체 가능성은 낮다고 보며, 2024년 말 S&P500 5400, 내년 6000, 이후 6500을 제시. 역전된 장단기 금리차는 유동성 공급으로 신용경색을 막아 침체로 이어지지 않을 수 있다고 주장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. as you see the makeup of this Market change a bit right Nvidia cool down and some of these other areas pick up what are you thinking I'm thinking this is a healthy development quite honestly um we've seen a lot of focus on the ey performance of The Magnificent 7 and uh as we know some of the Magnificent 7 haven't been so magnificent recently and if some money comes out of the Magnificent 7 and uh spread more evenly across the rest of the market that would be healthy thing for example the SNP equal weighted index has recently gone to a new high which is a good thing so I I think um that broadening in the market is probably what's in store and I think we're also likely to see less less momentum I just looked at the latest investors intelligence bull bear ratio and it's off the charts it's not completely off the charts but it's up to 4.2 it can go higher it has gone higher in the past but this is up from 0.5 six right at the bottom of the um of of of the bull market right when the the bull market just started uh sentiment was horrible now everybody's bullish and that means there may not be enough Bears around to convert into Bulls to keep the momentum going so I I think we're going to see some weakness in the momentum trade and more of a spreading of the market to other sectors and industries it's interesting you say that I was going to ask you whether you feel like you still have to prove to people that this is in fact a bull market that's not close to being finished yet well I think we're way past the the the point where I have to prove that this is a bull market I think we all know it's a bull market but look bull markets can last a long time until will get hit by another recession uh and that requires the FED to be raising interest rates I I didn't anticipate a recession over the past couple of years this was we just went through an environment where we had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that would turned out to be a complete gdau complete noow and I don't see a recession this year or next year I mean the FED has already raised interest rates I think inflation has come down I think it's going to stay down you know excluding shelter the CPI inflation rate is already at 2% you know when you have kids and you go for a drive and they say are we there yet well we're we're there except for shelter and shelter's coming down shelter inflation's coming down so I I think it's a long-term bull market I got 5400 by year end that was a pretty bold call off like a year ago but it right now it's looking pretty conservative yeah and uh why not more I mean people ask me why aren't you raising your numbers I said well you know there are kind of limitations in terms of what earnings can do and how much higher valuation can go but I see 6,000 next year on the S&P 500 and 6500 after that and do you do you dismiss the inversion of the yield curve because the fed's going to be cutting rates and and thus you'll have a re steepening how do you how do you view that i r a short little study uh that's on Amazon I'm not promoting it because I'm going to make any money on it but because in 2019 uh um Melissa tag and I my colleague we wrote a piece on on the yield curve and what does it really mean and this notion that an inverted Yi curve means that we're going to have a recession uh I think Miss is an important point in what it really does is it predicts a process it predicts a process that if the FED continues to raise interest rates something will break in the system and that will lead to a credit Crunch and it's credit crunches that cause recessions well the Yi curve got it absolutely right again and we did have a financial crisis last year but the FED came in and played whack-a-mole that that liquidity crisis uh they they whacked it right down with the liquidity facility and we didn't get a credit crunch so we didn't get a recession so as long as we don't get a credit Crunch and not a recession I think the bull market continues I mean you've never had a recession without an inverted yield curve but an inverted yield curve alone doesn't mean you're always going to have a recession I think that's the fair way to say it but it's been inverted for so long that you know people are still at at the stage of well I got to keep my eye on that because the yield curve has always meant something and the bond market has been right many times as as you obviously know yeah well I've been fighting the the inverted yield curve story I've been fighting the leading indicator story I think the leading indicators really are an indicator of what's going on in the goods economy much more so that in the services and the inverted y again I think it got it right in terms of calling a financial crisis but the fed this time around did something different which hadn't really done before and that is it came in with liquidity uh to keep the financial crisis from turning into a a a credit crunch I I really should correct myself I mean the FED got a lot of uh experience dealing with these credit crunches and avoiding them back in 2008 2009 and again in the pandemic so they're pretty good now at uh playing whack-a-mole with the liquidity prices