저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
이스라엘-하마스/가자 분쟁은 국지적이며 전 세계 GDP의 0.5% 미만이라 시장을 훼손할 가능성이 낮다. 10월 7일 이후 주가는 상승, 유가는 하락했다. 이란 개입 시 유가 우려가 있으나 이란은 이미 제재 중이고 타국 증산으로 상쇄될 것이다. 러시아·중국 개입은 극히 낮은 확률이다. 역사적으로 전쟁은 공포 단계에서 매도, 발발 후 상승하는 경향이 있으며, 이번 사태도 시장에 큰 충격이 될 가능성은 낮다.
다듬은 글
for pretty obvious reasons I get asked pretty often right now does the Israel Hamas Gaza Strip whatever you want to call it have the potential to derail the bull market that began in October of 2022 I'm going to tell you there's A and B most likely and as it logically plays it does not at all it is possible which is what everybody fears that it goes in ways that could let me put those two into perspective a conflict in and of itself between a couple of countries or even three or four it's geographically contained and has a demonstrable amount of GDP relative to the size of the global economy can be measured pretty precisely as to its potential impact this one as it stands even if it extends to Lebanon off the West Bank totals less than a half a 1% of global GDP and GDP there is not about to stop it just gets crunchi some this as it exists is a humanitarian tragedy it's not an economic tragedy this is a tragedy but as you can see from the beginning of it on October 7th markets up since then oils down since then there is nothing about it that derails what's going on now a big fear that a lot of people have is what happens if it goes to Iran and the big fear there is oil big fig there is it goes beyond Iran to some of Iran's other supporters the odds of that are very very low of it doing either of those but it's not impossible the reality is if it just goes to Iran it will not do it when I say will not do it I mean will not derail aable Market Iran's already heavily sanctioned their oil output as related to the global economy has been impacted by the sanctions in the past is up a little bit but if it goes down will still be more than made up for by a host of other countries that as we speak are otherwise already in the process increasing capacity that will more than make up for it Global capacity of oil will rise next year regardless if you think about other consequences its contribution Global GDP is also tiny and therefore with those other consequences it doesn't have that potential I think the odds that it's potential backers in the for out of getting involvement from either Russia or China that's a real hard push to try to buy into and is Extreme sort of in the vein of any crazy thing could happen but sometimes crazy things happen and if that does that would probably set the market back let me just say a different phraseology about war to you in general there is an age-old saying about war and when I say age old I mean age old that says sell on the fear Buy on the bullets in more recent vernacular it might be sell on the fear Buy on the bombs but the fact of the matter is once a war gets going well with only only exceptions being the most occasional full-scale World War markets rise there pretty it's not that these things are good for the economy or good for stocks in and of themselves it's that the fear of instability gets built in early and then springboards up when it turns out to not be the bloody disaster that people most feared it might be and that's almost certainly the most likely outcome of this entire tragic event of what's going on uh as all the things that you read and hear about in Gaza are going on it is a human tragedy from beginning to present and will be to end there's no great graceful nice kind sweet loving way out of all of this just isn't but in terms of it derable Market or Dent global economy that also just isn't thank you for listening to me I hope this was useful for you subscribe to the Fisher investment YouTube channel if you like what you've seen click the Bell to be notified as soon as we publish new videos
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