저자: FreshMindInvesting · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시 전반은 조정 중이나 S&P500은 상승추세를 유지하고 있으며, 중국 대형주(BABA·PDD·JD 등)가 지수를 떠받치고 있어 당분간 중국 대형주와 KWEB 보유를 선호한다는 주장이다. [시장 상황] 전날 FOMC 의사록(금리 인상·대차대조표 축소 시사)으로 S&P500·나스닥·러셀2000이 급락했으나 465 지지선에서 반등했다. 공포·탐욕 지수는 아직 공포 구간에 들지 않아 투자자들의 저가매수 습관에 우려를 표했다. [지수 구성] 나스닥 상위 종목 중 PDD·JD·바이두 등 중국주가 강세로 지수를 지탱하고 있다. 애플은 MACD 다이버전스로 160달러대까지 조정 가능성, 구글·마이크로소프트는 중기 조정 진입, 페이스북은 상승추세 유지로 평가했다. [섹터 로테이션] 작년 많이 오른 빅테크에서 자금이 이동해 가치주·다우 섹터로 옮겨갈 수 있으며, 디즈니·보잉·세일즈포스가 대안으로 거론됐다. 세일즈포스는 220~230달러 구간을 매력적 진입가로 보고 200달러 손절을 제시했다. [S&P500 전망] 코로나가 끝나기 전까지 미국 증시 대폭락은 없을 것으로 보며, 중간선거를 앞두고 연준이 시장 급락을 용인하지 않을 것이라고 봤다. 최악의 경우 횡보 변동성이 예상된다. [중국 대형주] 미국 증시가 조정받아도 중국 대형주는 강하게 반등할 수 있다고 보며, 2022년 중기적으로 중국 대형주가 시장을 상회할 것으로 전망했다. 작년 대형주가 덜 하락해 현금·수익성 등 펀더멘털 확실성이 높아 기관이 먼저 매수한다고 설명했다. 중국 성장주보다 KWEB 편입을 권했다. [바이두·BABA] 찰리 멍거가 BABA를 3분기 연속 추가 매수한 점을 강조했다. 이커머스 점유율 하락 우려에도 클라우드와 블록체인 특허(세계 최대 보유 가능성)를 높게 평가했다. 중국 국영기업의 앤트그룹 지분 인수로 정치 리스크가 완화됐다고 봤다. [NIO·전기차·신재생] 전기차·태양광 섹터 조정이 끝나면 NIO 등이 다시 상승할 것으로 보며, NIO 28달러 지지선 반복 테스트로 24달러 붕괴 가능성도 언급했다. 중국 신에너지+블록체인 결합을 장기 최대 수혜로 꼽았다. [성장주·RSI] 성장주 약세가 1년 넘게 지속돼 RSI가 바닥에 근접했다고 보며, RSI 70 부근 회복 시 성장주 매수 신호로 제시했다. 팔란티어는 언급이 줄어든 점을 개인 이탈·기관 매집 신호로 해석했다. [암호화폐] 이더리움은 2021년 1월 매수 추천 후 조정받는 중이며 26달러(ETHE 기준 26 레벨 언급)에 근접하면 분할 매수 유효하다고 봤다. ETHE ETF 언급.
다듬은 글
hi guys welcome back what a strange day today right yesterday the market did a huge diving because of the minutes of the fomc meeting it says that might be increasing the interest rate earlier and actually start to reduce the debt with this news everything was falling together including the s p 500 nasdaq and russell 2000 right it was pretty scary sale of yesterday so i reminded once again to set stop loss but don't cut at the bottom because even though it was selling off so much yesterday i said at least wait for the support at 465 and there should be a rebound after that where we can think about what to cut and as you see this morning we got to 465 quickly and bounce back up after that everything had a nice rebound now what's funny today was that even though now fat was slightly down in the end a lot of the tech stocks continue selling off but who was holding up the index right and among the top five three of them are chinese stocks first one pindodo pdd jd and baidu which i said i was buying the dip on tuesday right turned out to be the leader of the rebound today so why is nasdaq going through a correction but the chinese are running up like on fire and the answer is very simple because they need to hold up the big index it has a need to rebound but most of the other big tanks have been running up so much in the past few months and the valuation is very very high so what's left is these chinese mega caps that they can buy the dip to hold up the index so now the question is is this sustainable where are we gonna see things moving right should we be concerned about the fomc meeting the rising interest rate and what does it mean for chinese stocks first of all i think it's not going to be sustainable like this it cannot last forever to have only the chinese stocks that supporting the index if it needs to run up it they all need to run up together like most of the bigger techs and right now apple's uptrend is kind of broken you can see the macd divergence share price make higher highs and msc name doesn't make it higher highs so there is a good chance apple might be getting into a little bit correction at least until it gets back to the 160s level so if apple can still drop then maybe the index would go with apple because apple is kind of the leader of everything right amazon still on a downtrend but the good thing is that it was breaking out of this downtrend few weeks ago and right now we're exactly back testing the support of this trend line very precise so at least that's good google has completely broken the uptrend from the movement yesterday seems like it needs to get into a medium term correction and same thing with microsoft facebook has not yet broken the uptrend is still making higher highs and right now it's just a healthy back test in fact this range might be even a good range to buy the dip so out of the fangs three of them might be in a correction and two of them are at the support level and need to rebound and because the fan already makes up a large chunk of nasdaq index so judging from the movement of this five big text then i would assume nasdaq might move up and down on the side for a while maybe slightly downtrend judging from the fans only might take a little bit time meanwhile maybe the smart money would move the capital from the previous hot sector which is the thing into the valley stocks or the stocks in the dow jones like i said in the previous videos so i said pay attention to the dow jones sector especially the ones that have not grown yet in the last year like disney boeing and salesforce salesforce might also get affected by the nasdaq more even though it's at a good valuation on the video two days ago i pointed out the good deep opportunity for salesforce ranging around the 230 level to 220's and yesterday because of the big dip we have got into this range i think still at this range is good risk reward ratio so let's say in one to two years i think it's a very little chance to lose money in this range with this cost so if you grab the dip this two days in this range i think you can hold on to it and maybe add more if it dips more and set a stop loss at the 200 level because i think even if the tech stocks need to correct there is limited room for salesforce to drop because it has been correcting for more than one year already that is my view and the other one is disney so if textiles or nasdaq would correct it would give more opportunity for the dow jones sector and disney is one of them as i said in the last video so should we be worried about this is this going to be a medium term correction yet the one we have been anticipating or waiting for for the s p to dip 10 to 20 well first of all my belief still remain the same that the u.s market would not crash until the covet goes away and i don't see kelvin going away in the short term so if anything it would just be a normal market pullback like normally but i do have a little bit concerned though not because of the fomc because i think most investors already priced in the rising interest rate already so yesterday was a little bit over exaggerating but what i do have concern is the fear and greed index because yesterday the sell-off was pretty quick and deep and yet the fear and grit index is not even in fair level yet so this is what i'm concerned about is that people are so used to buying the dip thinking that it always would go back up so if anything this is a little bit concern i have but other than that right now the s p is still running healthy is still in an uptrend hasn't even back tested the blue trend line yet and the only thing lagging is nasdaq which might be only because sectors rotating and the big tanks are correcting but for the smp i don't see big risk right now at this point especially we're having medium term election in the u.s and i really don't think the fed would let the market crash towards the election so even though it's volatile it's still on an uptrend and at worst case scenario it would just move on the side up and down a lot that would be the worst case scenario i can think of but again i think most investors have learned the lesson last year in the 2021 that the fact that s p is up doesn't mean all u.s stocks are up i think the u.s stock market is getting more and more like the chinese stock market so driven by the politics so it could be just a fed or the bigger institutions holding strong the snp so the market remains calm so all the capital mainly focus on those bigger stocks that hold the index so what will happen to our chinese stocks i think today was a very good example that even though the u.s stocks can be in correction the chinese stocks can come out and hold the index because today they are all bouncing back up very strong pdd is up at some point almost 10 percent baba was on fire again so overall in the medium term at least in the year of 2022 i think the chinese stocks can outperform the market stretching to a longer period but of course it would dip when the u.s market dips now a few discord members ask me why the chinese growth stocks the smaller caps are not rebounding as strong as the bigger tax and the reason is because last year in 2021 most of the bigger techs were selling off even more than the growth stocks and at the same time they do give more certainties because they have sufficient cash they're already making profit they have the pe to support the fundamental the share price and extremely oversold so there is no surprise why the institutions would buy the div of the bigger tax first before they would move on to the growth so that's why recently i suggest to put part of your portfolio in the kweb because it composed all the big texts like tencent matron alibaba by do jd ping.org and so on and on top of that most of them already have a second listing in hong kong or primary listing in hong kong so that would reduce the listing risk as well so you can see today the market was mainly flat and cweb grew at some point almost 12 it was significantly outperforming the market on tuesday i said i bought the dip for pdd because i was aiming for the support of 49 and today it became the number one in the list of nasdaq surprisingly strong so i already took profit of the short-term car option today baba recently have been making higher highs and staying flat even though the market is moving up and down so much so i was speculating that there are bigger institutions accumulating shares quietly even though a lot of retail investors are dumping and yesterday we saw the news that charlie munger once again doubled down on the baba investment it's been three quarters that they have been adding constantly even though a lot of people are judging what they're doing right now i heard some voices saying that oh charlie munger is too old he doesn't know what he's doing this is the only song that he's gonna fail at but it seems like he's really putting all those noises behind and focus on what he believes in i think he's quite bullish in the china economy the chinese growth story and did not doubt for a second that alibaba is a good company regardless of the political risk so what does he see in alibaba that normal investors don't so baba had dropped so much last year and government interference is only one of the factors there is an important factor which is because the main business e-commerce is losing a lot of the market share because of jd and pindodo or other new players but alibaba is also investing a lot of money and resources into the new businesses like the most important to be the cloud business and for me personally other than the cloud business i'm also very bullish on their blockchain technology as i repeated many times that alibaba might be the largest blockchain patent holder in the whole world and you know that i am very very bullish on the blockchain technology i know that this is one of the most important tasks for the chinese government for the next five to ten years at least other than the new energy if you are a long-term follower for my channel you know that i'm non-stop under china's new energy big plan and the bigger plan behind this might be blockchain plus new energy this combination makes me extra extra bullish i think this is the biggest winner in the next five to ten years and instead of investing in the smaller blockchain stocks in china which have such a strong correlation to bitcoin that the chinese government ban right now i think i'd rather invest in the bigger stocks in the blockchain field that can help support the digital currency the digital rmb so i think baba is definitely one of them and on top of that there was a very good news that maybe most people have missed it is that a chinese state-owned company is investing in the ends group so taking a large ownership so that means finally alibaba and the ccp are reaching a common ground by owning shares of the same company which is the ants group just for this it has significantly reduced the political risk of baba from here on and making it much more investable because since the government has a good ownership in the company it's very unlikely they want this company to go away in fact i do think they want alibaba to help develop the digital currency project which is the most important project i think this actually is not a bad news at all i think it would make it much more safe reducing a lot of the political risk now let's update a little bit on baby neil so after the strong breakout last thursday right now we are back down like before as i said on tuesday you need to have a stop loss for neo ready because in case it breaks the 31 to 30.5 level it might turn down trend again so right now in the chinese market the ev stocks and the solar sectors are still in the correction so there is no surprise that neo is dragged down with it you can just look at byd for indicator or the catl for example if they are in the correction then the whole sector should because they are the leaders in this field so for now i would say for chinese stocks kweb is the way to hold on to but once the ev sector and the new energy sectors finish correcting i do see the eevees and solar plays up and running again especially you can look at this support level 28 technically 28 should be a strong support but recently we have been back testing it one two three four five times so when a support level has been tested so many times there is a chance it would break and if it really breaks then it would go to the next support which i still have drawn here at the level of 24.
i hope it doesn't get there but in case it does i would be happy to grab the dip in the end i also want to talk about the rk indicator as you see rk etf has been going through a huge correction for a year already continue making lower loss that's why if you feel painful recently it's because you are holding a lot of growth stocks and ik is a good indicator for that but i have good news for you is that i think rk is near the end of the worst i think we are getting really close especially if it can get to let's say the 70s level i think this would be a good indicator to buy a lot of the growth stocks and i would say a lot of the growth stocks are sharing the similar movement right now last time i shared pinterest this time i would like to talk about parent tier now six months ago a lot of my discord member would ask me about palantir but i haven't heard anyone mentioning it at least for a few months already and usually this is a good sign it means a lot of retail investors have given up and usually the institutions might have accumulated enough shares so it's ready to rebound any time another one is sulfite triggers more sofi i think it's also gone into a good support so i suggest to look at the rk as an indicator to get in those growth stocks again now in the end i also want to quickly mention the crypto i haven't updated crypto for a long time but now i think it's worth mentioning again now for ethereum i suggested at first to buy at the beginning of last year january 2021 before the run-up and in may i also called out the golden dip after it ran off i did not update it since so it has been going through a little bit correction as well and i think right now we are at a good support level that it might be interesting to revisit again and for stock you have the etf ticker symbol ethe i think we have gotten into a range where it's good to accumulate slowly and if it can get to the 26 level it would be even better i would think it's a good risk reward ratio now that's it for today and if you have enjoyed this video please give me a big like and write me a great comment and i'll see you in my next video that's it guys hope you can find my videos helpful make sure you subscribe to my channel and give me a big like thank you
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