저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 2022년 들어 증시 폭락을 경고하며 애플 공매도 포지션을 취한 것으로 알려졌다는 내용을 소개하는 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 버리는 S&P500과 나스닥이 코로나 이후 너무 빨리 반등했고, 2000년대 초 닷컴 버블 직전과 유사하다고 봄. 근거 수치: S&P500은 2000년대 초 최대 47% 하락, 2008~09년 55% 하락, 2020년 34% 하락 사례를 언급. 버리는 S&P500이 최대 1,862포인트(약 54%) 급락할 수 있다고 주장(영상 내 수치 자막 불명확). 애플 관련: 2022년 들어 애플 약 22% 하락, 시가총액 1위 자리를 사우디 아람코에 내줌. 버리 헤지펀드는 애플 공매도, 알파벳·메타·디스커버리 등은 롱 포지션. 언급 종목과 방향: 애플 하락(버리 공매도), 테슬라 과대평가로 버리 공매도 수익 실현 언급, 알파벳·메타 롱. 반대 의견: 댄 아이브스는 닷컴 버블 2.0 가능성은 낮고 기술주 시장은 옥석 가리기 장세가 될 것이라고 봄. 애플은 장기적으로 잘 될 것이나 단기 하락 가능성(최대 25%)은 존재. 워런 버핏: 버크셔해서웨이가 포트폴리오 약 42%를 애플에 배정하며 여전히 강세 입장. 버리는 단기, 버핏은 장기 투자 성향으로 대비됨. 애플 실적: 2014년 매출 1,990억 달러 → 2021년 3,780억 달러로 약 2배 성장. 2016·2018년 역성장 외에는 대체로 성장, 2021년 초 성장률 약 53%. 조건/리스크: 버리는 항상 예측이 빨랐다는 점이 언급되며, 예측 시점과 실제 하락 시점의 괴리 리스크 존재. 영상은 결론을 내리지 않고 버리의 예측이 맞을지는 시간이 증명할 것이라고 마무리. 출연자 전망: 사회자 외 출연자 없음. 영상 자체는 버리의 폭락 경고와 애플 공매도 소식을 전달하는 내용.
다듬은 글
in 2022 what brings christmas in july a disinflationary overstock consumer recession at christmas now michael bury has been tweeting non-stop since last year rapidly in fact last year he made some bold predictions about the current market and it's all coming through this includes the crypto market this includes a stocks and shares market and earlier this year we got information that michael blurry is officially shorting apple shares and this was a huge surprise for almost everyone so we have to understand why now let's take a look at the price in history when it comes to apple shares versus the rest of the market in the early 2000s s p dipped as much as 47 apple sank 82 now the impressive thing is that the s p 500 did 55 between 2008 and 09 apple dropped 61 now in 2020 the global pandemic when the market dipped 34 percent that's the s p 500 apple dipped 31 now the interesting thing is that apple is down 22 this year and apple is no longer the world's most valuable company they lost that place to saudi aramco now at the same time michael bury decided to make a bet against apple the cupertino company so michael barry hedge fund also had long positions in alphabet meta platform which is facebook and discovery now here's where our little story gets even more interesting last year the big short protagonist michael bury he made news for disclosing a 530 million dollar short position in tesla at the time michael barry said that he had made a quick trade in which he thought the options bet were extremely asymmetric and the media was off by orders of magnitude basically what michael barry was saying is that obviously tesla was over value and if you look at what's happened now tesla used to be worth thousand one hundred dollars per share now in contrast tesla's worth what six hundred and seventy five dollars in share it's a big difference michael bury made a huge amount of money shorten tesla now the interesting question is is michael bobby right to be shortened tesla and apple and all these companies such as alphabet a tweet that he's deleted by now but i will show this tweet on screen in the middle of the page so you can see it for yourself and read up all about it michael barry seems to believe that the s p 500 rebounded too strongly and too early for covert 19 in 2020.
now barry thinks that the index could plummet 54 to 1862 points in this year now that's rather interesting so ladies and gents this is where it gets quite interesting now in the s p 500 and the nasdaq 100 applicants for 7 and 13 of both index respectively if these indexes have negative problems in the market if they plunge apple will have a huge plunge in the market now michael barry believes that the last 10 years in the s p 500 has been similar to the decades leading up to the major dot-com bubble that was the early 2000 crash and the dow jones 10 years before the 1929 meltdown and on the other hand regarding apple bury is betting against a tech giant that has managed to stand out despite the challenges apple hasn't just excel in the mobile phone market in a smartphone market but they've excelled in the computer technology market creating smart watches almost any product that apple creates it's an automatic success but barry is the kind of person that does a lot of research and research that leads to good results great results dan ives one of the main apple bulls on wall street a 2.0 version of the dot-com bubble is not necessarily lurking around the corner he believes instead that this year tech driven bear market should split the sector into clear haves and haves not so for a lot of people a lot of investors a lot of intelligent investors they strongly believe that apple will do well long term i guarantee apple will do well but short term they might not they might see a huge four maybe 25 percent in the next bear market you can you can never know now speaking of legendary investors warren buffett may have some similar opinions berkshire hathaway which has 42 percent of its portfolio allocated to apple remains at least bullish as it has never been now here we have two great investor warren buffett michael berry they're both two experts in their different fields however they're predicting something completely different and let's just say this michael barry is always early with his prediction he's always early he's always ahead of the curve so you should expect him to be early with his predictions michael barry also thinks more short term with his investment while warren buffett he obviously thinks long term this is the man who bought his first shares when he was like eight years old he's been holding coca-cola for decades to completely different investor but they do things well in their own regards now here we have a list of investments within michael's barry's asset management company this is their portfolio over 206 000 shares have been shorted in their puts position it's valued at almost 36 million overall their portfolio percentage is up to 165 million in percentage now previously i have said that they invest in alphabet also invest in discovery warner brothers discovery bristol myers they've even had investments in stalantis that's a major manufacturer in automobiles so it's a well diverse portfolio it's nowhere close to berkshire hathaway of course but this is a small management company in the realms of management companies but i'm always skeptical about apple because apple is one of the few companies who can actually rise the price of their products and still make a profit and people will continue to buy we see them do it time after time this is a look at apple's time lapse from their inception from the iphone's inception in 2009 until now the growth trajectory this is their income and revenue and allow me to show you just how ridiculous this is in 2014 at the end of 2014 apple made 199 billion that's in revenue at the end of 2021 they made 378 billion that's almost twice as much and guess what that's only six and a half years ago how have they almost doubled their income their revenue in that short period of time you cannot underestimate a company like this look at their year to year look at apple's year to year quantity growth in the early parts obviously they had great growth but around 2012 when samsung started to introduce some great smartphones the android competition started to heat up in the smartphone market apple had a huge drop they had a slight recovery in 2015 year-over-year growth but there's only two parts in their history that they've had negative growth that was in 2016 and the next one was in 2018 at 5 on average in 2016 it was roughly around 14 to 15 on average and as for 2021 they've had a growth in the early parts of 53 so this is a company that knows how to perform well despite the market as we all wait to see who's correct is it michael bury for betting against the market for betting against tesla betting against apple he's already proven that he was correct to bet against tesla because short-term tesla because short-term tesla shares have fallen quite a lot and that's no surprise to michael barry because he's always early when he's making his predictions but now he's predicting the next huge downfall of the market and in time we will find out if he's correct just like he was in 2008 so i hope you enjoyed this video thank you for watching subscribe to see more leave a like and leave a comment and let me know what you think thank you for watching until the end and i will see you in my next video
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