저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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트럼프 관세는 해외가 아닌 미국 소비자가 부담하며 미국 경기침체와 고물가(스태그플레이션)를 낳을 것이라 주장. 그 결과 미국 주식·부동산·채권은 하락하고 금리는 상승할 것으로 봄. 반면 해외 시장과 금광주, 배당·가치주로의 자금 이동을 강조하고 보유 중인 포트폴리오가 상승 중이라고 함. 관세는 세수 목적보다 보호무역이며 위법 소지도 제기.
다듬은 글
Well, I mean, we're having a great day as far as uh performance. It's not that we're falling less. We're actually up. We actually having a big up day today even as the Dow is down 14,500 points. The Russell 2000 is down 6%. But many of the stocks in my portfolio in US dollars are up 3, four, 5% or more today.
And that doesn't even count the gold stocks that were way down this morning. Some of those stocks were down four or 5%. Now they're up 2 or 3% now. Um, and they're going a lot higher. I think the gold stocks are are are are very cheap. But what we're really seeing is a major rotation out of US markets into foreign markets and out of growth oriented companies into uh value dividend paying type stocks because that's what I own and that's what's going up so much.
And also a lot of the companies I own focus on consumers outside the US and that is the market because Americans are not going to be able to afford to buy as much stuff because of the tariffs. And so businesses all around the world that were selling goods to Americans are going to sell less goods to Americans because the prices are going to be much higher and now they're going to be selling those goods into other markets.
So uh there's a lot of opportunity now outside the United States. There's a lot of pain uh that we're we're we're going to be uh going through in the United States. It is a liberation day. Trump just doesn't understand who's being liberated. It's the rest of the world that's being liberated from the burden of subsidizing the American economy.
Americans are liberated from all the cheap goods that we used to get and the low interest rates and the the the bull market in in assets. You know, uh it it's a mistake to think that the world is ripping us off because we get to consume what they produce. We're ripping them off by not paying for it.
You know, we give them or they give us real goods and we just give them pieces of paper. So, they're the ones that have been getting ripped off. But yes, Trump is right that this has impo been, you know, reducing our our net wealth because we've been selling off our our cows to buy milk because foreigners are buying our stocks and our real estate uh with the money they earn selling us stuff.
But the short-term tradeoff is that we have a higher standard of living. Uh and that's what's about to be lost. And that's what the president doesn't understand when he promises an immediate economic boom. The transition that he wants is going to be very painful and it's going to take years and years before there's light at the end of the tunnel.
In the meantime, stocks have to go down, real estate, bonds have to go down, interest rates have to go up. Actually, uh the economy has to go through a serious recession that will probably span the entirety of his presidency. The problem is that Trump hasn't prepared the country for that. Trump has promised something he can't deliver, which is an immediate boom.
Well, we're not going to make that many factories, so there's not going to be many jobs. But most people aren't factory worker. They're going to lose jobs. And even if they don't lose their jobs, their paychecks are going to go a lot uh not go as far because everything they want to buy is going to be much more expensive.
Yeah. tariffs. The tariffs are not on the rest of the world. The tariffs are on Americans. That's who pays the tariffs. The Chinese don't pay our tariffs. The Europeans don't pay our tariffs. The Mexicans uh the Canadians don't pay them. Americans pay them. Well, he's just been misinformed by his uh you know, people that he has surrounded himself with who are economic ignoramises who don't understand uh you know the consequences of what they've proposed and what they've convinced Trump to do.
Uh although Trump, if you look back historically, I mean Trump has always talked about you know other countries ripping us off. So he's kind of predisposed to believe some of the nonsense that some of his advisers are are blowing in his ear. But he's hoping to uh, you know, reinvigorate our once great manufacturing base.
And I I would share that goal. But tariffs aren't going to do it. You have to understand why we lost all those factories in the first place. And putting on tariffs isn't going to bring them back. Um, but what we need to do to bring them back, uh, they're not doing. I mean, we need massive cuts to government spending.
Uh, we need a lot more deregulation. We need higher interest rates. Um uh we need to reform the entitlements. We need to cut Social Security, Medicare. We need to cut defense. We're not doing any of the things that we need to do. Uh you know, and we need to massive deregulation in the labor markets, uh the unions.
I mean, there are a lot of reasons that we're not manufacturing in this country. And you can't just put a band-aid on it with a tariff and assume that everything is going to heal. The tariffs aren't even reciprocal. He's just calling him reciprocal so he can use that power that Congress gave him. I think it's all illegal because it's not reciprocity.
Trump is putting tariffs on nations that don't even have tariffs. And the tariffs that he's imposing are way out of proportion to the tariffs other countries have. Because the where he's getting these ridiculous numbers is he's come up with some, you know, BS formula that basically claims that any nation surplus with us is the result of tariffs, even if they don't have tariffs or even if the tariffs are so low that it's it barely makes a difference.
So when they says, "Oh, Europe has 38% tariffs, so we're going to put 20% tariffs on." Europe is maybe 4% tariffs, you know. So what we're doing is not reciprocal. Uh it's pure protectionism. I think it's illegal. Uh but he's doing it anyway. But that's his goal. The goal is not to raise revenue. The tariffs are too high.
That the goal is protection. But I don't think they're going to work. You know, I think they will raise some revenue a lot less than they expect. Think that's because Americans are going to pay these tariffs, but a lot of Americans aren't going to pay the tariffs because they're not going to buy the goods.
Yeah, I made fun of Jerome Powell almost a year ago when somebody asked him about stagflation and he kind of laughed it off and he said, "I don't see the stag. I don't see the flation." And I said, "Well, he's obviously blind." And my prediction was that that comment about no signs of stagflation would go down in history with subprime is contained and inflation is transitory.
Uh because he was completely wrong. Not only is this stackflation, but it's recession, severe recession and high inflation. It's going to be far worse than anything we had in the 1970s. You know, when people say, "Oh, this stack inflation, oh, it's not like the 70s." They're right. It's way worse than the 70s.
Well, the tariffs hit right away, right? But the tariffs aren't paid until the goods are imported. And if you look, if you noticed, our trade deficits in the US for the past few months have been off the charts. And so what I think is that a lot of companies saw the tariffs coming and they ordered some inventory.
So they have to work that inventory off first. So those those products can be sold without the tariffs. Now, I think they will raise prices somewhat because they realize that this is their last chance to make money because once they run out of those goods, you know, they have to pay the tariff on the new goods and their customers probably will be priced out of the market, a lot of them.
So, you'll start to see some initial increases in prices, but it won't fully hit until they run out of stuff. And, you know, there's going to be a mad dash. I mean, some people are going to rush to the stores and, you know, they're going to buy new uh sneakers, for example. You know, maybe they'll buy three or four pairs uh knowing that, you know, they're going to run they're going to wear out.
They'll want to get another pair they're going to wear out because all those sneakers are going to get so much more expensive. So, some of these companies, you know, could see a rush of sales, you know, now until they get use up what they got. Um and then then their business is going to dry up, you know, substantially.
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