저자: Ale'sWorldofStocks진행자 · 외국인
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AMD 주가가 구글과의 게이밍 시장 파트너십 소식으로 하루 약 15% 급등했다. 구글은 스트리밍 게임 플랫폼 스테이디아를 발표했고, 그래픽 칩은 AMD가 공급하는 것으로 알려졌다. 이는 AMD에게 큰 호재이며, 특히 암호화폐 침체로 인한 데이터센터·GPU 부진을 상쇄할 수 있는 계기로 평가된다. 구글 스테이디아는 Chrome 브라우저, 크롬캐스트, 픽셀 스마트폰에서 게임을 스트리밍하는 서비스로, 콘솔 없이도 고사양 게임 실행이 가능하다는 장점이 있다. 다만 초기에는 픽셀 폰에 한정되어 시장 규모가 제한적일 수 있고, 지연·서버 이슈 등 리스크도 존재한다. 마이크로소프트 프로젝트 xCloud와의 경쟁에서는 기존 Xbox 사용자 기반을 보유한 MS가 유리하다는 평가다. 재무 측면에서 AMD는 연초 대비 40% 이상, 1년간 127% 이상 상승했고 시가총액 약 260억 달러, 후행 PER 81배로 밸류에이션 부담이 크다. 반면 7나노 CPU·GPU 라인업과 데이터센터 시장(총 약 300억 달러 규모) 성장으로 선행 PER은 26배로 낮아진다. 2019년 1분기 매출은 암호화폐 붕괴로 약 24% 감소가 예상되지만, 하반기에는 7나노 제품 효과로 연간 매출이 한 자릿수 후반 성장할 것으로 전망했다. 진행자는 현재 밸류에이션이 다소 비싸다고 판단해 추가 매수는 하지 않지만, 장기 주주로서 보유를 유지하며 큰 조정이 오면 추가 매수를 고려한다고 밝혔다. 경기 사이클 후반 및 침체 우려 속에서 투자에 더 신중하다는 입장이다. 매도 계획은 당장 없으며, 주가가 더 오르면 일부 차익 실현을 고려할 수 있다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
AMD stocks soar today by almost 15% in just a single day and I'm probably goingon to upload this video the following day in the very early morning so by the time you see this it may have climbed by even more or it may have pulled back a little bit but uh either way the uh the stock basically climbed because of news of a new partnership between AMD and Google in the gaming Market by the way Google stock only climbed by about 1% so it wasn't very significant but in this quick video I just want to talk about what this means for AMD stock and as a shareholder myself do I plan on buying any more do I plan on maybe selling cashing in some profits or just kind of holding my position so we're going to talk about all of that and a lot more in today's video hit the like button if you enjoy this and let's get started what's up everybody my name is alla and welcome to my world of stocks now AMD is no stranger to the gaming Market in fact a ton of their revenue actually comes from gaming itself and they have a presence in the gaming Market through various different outlets in fact they power both the PlayStation and Xbox home gaming consoles and they offer a variety of CPUs and gpus for the PC gaming Market as well most recently that attention has gone to the ryzen CPUs and Vega gpus which will both have 7 nanometer versions this year meaning that they'll pump out better performance with less power uses us AG keep in mind that their competitors in Intel and Nvidia are still mostly working with 14 nanom and 12 nanom versions of their own chips respectively of course in this case smaller is usually better although some people would argue that something like Intel's 10 nanometer is about the same as AMD 7 nmet but it still led to a lot of investors rushing into AMD stock as a result that's as far as I'm going to go into amd's overall business in this video because I did just make a full analysis video on AMD stock less than a week ago so I'll just link that video down below in the description and on a pinned comment if you want to learn more about AMD and their competitors but this of course leads us to the reason why AMD stock sore today and it has a lot to do with Google entering the gaming Market see Google made an appearance at GDC 2019 which stands for game developers conference and they announced their new video game streaming platform called Google stadia by the way I think that's a horrible name since I didn't even know that stadia was a word to begin with but apparently it's the plural form of Stadium which is uh cool I guess but anyway this appears to be just a streaming service that lets you stream video games through the Chrome web browser a chomecast device or a pixel smartphone with plans to add more devices in the future of course this means that you can play on your computer or tablet through uh the Chrome web browser on your TV through a Chromecast device or on your smartphone if it's a Google pixel although my guess is that the later expand to all Android phones with a future update in any case you might be thinking that this sounds awfully similar to what Microsoft is doing with project xcloud and you'd be right in that you don't need to have an actual console to use this service because Google and also Microsoft will have their own gaming console setup integrated into their server blades that are sitting in their data center infrastructure allowing video games to be streamed over to you through the cloud that being Google cloud or Microsoft Azure now this is probably where the market will be headed in the long run but I still think that Microsoft has the advantage here because they already have an established user base on Xbox that they can just add to with project xcloud whereas Google is basically starting from scratch still this is pretty exciting technology because they can essentially run any game that they want with amazing performance in fact they're already teasing 4K Graphics at 60 FPS with even 8K Graphics at 120 frames per second being possible sometime in the future that's pretty mind-blowing considering that home consoles struggle just to do 4K at 60 or even 30 with the base version struggling to do just 1080p at 60 or sometimes even 30 frames per second of course these massive improvements are made possible through Google stadia because they're doing all the heavy lifting on their servers and then just streaming the game out to you through the cloud and a couple other interesting things to note is that Google is also setting up their own game Studio to develop first-party games exclusively for the new platform and there is even news going around that with this technology they could potentially make Battle Royale games consisting of an enormous amount of players for context the massively popular fortnite caps out at 100 players uh per match but Google stadia may be able to do hundreds if not thousands of different players which would undoubtedly be a huge deal and help attract many new Gamers to the platform speaking of Attraction this should also have a very low barrier to entry because you may not even need an actual console or highend PC to use Google stadia think about Xbox or Playstation or even Nintendo if you want to play their games you need to buy a console that costs hundreds of dollars and then pay a yearly subscription fee to play online plus pay for the actual games that you want to play and if you're a PC Gamer then it can get even worse as some of the high-end gaming PCs can easily run you north of $1,000 but with something like Google stadia you may only need to buy the actual game itself and maybe a small subscription fee for the streaming service making it much more accessible to the average consumer so I could see that attracting people who don't even have a gaming console or a gaming PC and also still attract even console Gamers who want better performance uh by streaming the games through through the cloud so this is really a big deal because the gaming Market as a whole is growing by billions of dollars every year and it's projected to reach over $180 billion by 2021 now it is true that most of that growth is coming from mobile but it looks like Google stadia will be able to run on smartphones as well making it a compelling choice for all Gamers now there is no current word on how much the service will cost but my guess is that we may see a tier system where you may have to pay a bigger fee for higher graphics and performance like 4K or 8K gaming kind of similar to what Netflix does in that you have to pay Netflix a higher subscription fee if you want to stream 4K video there's also no word on the exact release date other than some time this year okay so all of that sounds great but how does it involve AMD well the Google stadia platform is set to run on custom CPUs and gpus that are tailor made for the data center and while there's no word on who will provide the CPUs we do know that the gpus will in fact be supplied by AMD which is a huge win for them considering that Google usually goes with nvidia's Tesla gpus for their data center rather than AMD now this custom GPU from AMD is set to be based on the Vega architecture so not quite na'vi but I assume that they could integrate na'vi in later years after its release na'vi being uh kind of like the next generation of their gpus but it's said to currently have close to 11 teraflops of power and for context the high-end PlayStation 4 Pro and Xbox One X only have 4.2 and six Tera flops each respectively I personally have an Xbox One X and a high-end gaming PC myself and I still find the Google stadia project very interesting and maybe even appealing but don't get me wrong I still absolutely have my concerns about Google stadia because as a more of a multiplayer gamer myself I know how bad it can be when you have a lot of lag or server issues uh you know both of which if Google stadia has issues with it can really just disrupt the whole gaming experience and uh and it would really upset I think a lot of dedicated Gamers or or more hardcore multiplayer Gamers especially and because Google is really starting from scratch I would not be surprised at all if they do have some early on issues whereas you know Microsoft is pushing uh project xcloud later this year but they have a lot of experience in the gaming market and just uh gaming services and things like that so they've been doing Xbox for many years and they also have the game pass uh service and so they they have a little bit more experience with those type of services and video gaming and stuff like that it's not a direct comparison but it's kind of similar um the other thing is that uh for starting out Google uh stadia is only going to be available on Google pixel smartphones which I find kind of weird because I I person I'm not trying to talk trash on Google pixel phones I actually wanted one myself at at one point but I don't know a single person who has a Google pixel smartphone so I feel like their uh Market is going to be very limited there but it might actually be a smart decision to do that because you might want to just start out with like a smaller base and then just kind of Branch out to that later on once you kind of know what you're doing and you have all the infrastructure set up and you have some experience so I could easily see them pushing out to other Androids in a future update in any case this is huge news for AMD because AMD is still trying to recover from the whole cryptocurrency crash this first quarter is going to be rough we're going to talk about that in a second uh but what they really need is their Data Center business to take off and kind of help offset a lot of the issues that they had with cryptocurrency the cryptocurrency crash led to a bunch of secondhand gpus uh kind of flooding the market a bunch of used gpus flooding the market which is hurting their GPU sales of their new products and things like that so their new upcoming 7 nanometer products and of course in the data center uh Market that's where really they need to see a lot of uh growth there to help offset that cryptocurrency crash so the fact that they're not only getting this deal with Google but that they're actually that they're the ones getting it and not a competitor like Nvidia which we thought would probably have gotten it you know that's a really big deal for AMD of course we still need to see if this service actually takes off and if it's well received by Gamers uh I personally am going to be holding back uh just kind of in the beginning stages of it but later on you know if I see some potential there then I might be more interested uh either way I do still think that this is a big deal for AMD but uh how does amd's valuation look given that they now jumped up by almost 15% in a single day now their valuation it's obviously going to be a little bit higher well looking at their stock despite having a disastrous end to the year in 2018 the stock has since recovered to be up over 40% year to date and it's still up over 127% in the past year and up over 850 per in the past 3 years this amazing performance has led to a very rich valuation with a market cap of over $26 billion with an absolutely massive trailing PE ratio of over 81 they're also trading at 4 times their sales and 20 times their Book value not to mention that they're sitting above their 50 and 200 day moving averages and are at almost three times their 52e low however their future still looks promising thanks to their upcoming lineup of 7 nanometer CPU and GPU chips especially in the machine learning and data center markets which leads them to have much more improved forward ratios like their forward PE dropping all the way down to 26 and their peeg ratio at just 1.15 when factoring in the next 5 years of expected earnings growth and speaking of earnings they increased their revenues last year by a very impressive 23% year-over-year and their profitability was the highest that they've seen in the past 7 years not to mention that sales from their Enterprise segment was only around $2.3 billion for the year while the total addressable Market in the data center is pegged at almost $30 billion with 17 billion coming from the CPU side and around 12 billion coming from the GPU side meaning that there's still a lot of room for growth and while it's true that this next quarter that being uh q1 of 2019 should see an enormous drop in revenue of around 24% because of the cryptocurrency crash AMD still expects to turn things around in a huge way in the second half of the year thanks to those 7 nanometer products that we talked about as they still expect to see sales Climb by high single digigit percentage in the year again despite that 24% drop expected in q1 still their valuation looks just a bit too expensive for me at the moment and given that so many people are talking about uh us being at the end of this economic cycle and so so many talks about a recession coming in the next couple years or so you know I'm just being a lot more picky with my investments and so AMD right now at their current valuation is just a little too expensive for me to be adding to my position that being said I'm still a long-term shareholder and I don't really have any plans to sell out of the stock at least not yet um right now I'm still waiting to see what happens with their full 7 anomet product lineup I still have very high hopes for that and especially in the data center Market I see Intel still kind of struggling to get their uh smaller uh manufacturing process for their chips and even in Nvidia still kind of lagging behind as well so I still have a lot of high hopes for AMD uh I'm just not adding to my position and uh you know but I'm not necessarily selling or cashing in any profits at least not yet maybe if it climbs a little bit more I might trim a little bit uh but I wouldn't really add to my position unless I saw a significant dip but who cares what I think guys I'd love to hear your thoughts so make sure you leave me a comment down below are you buying selling or holding AMD stock or even Google stock or Nvidia or Intel I'd love to hear your thoughts and and uh I guess that's about it make sure you hit the like button if you enjoyed the video subscribe if you haven't already and I'll catch you guys in the next one take care bye-bye
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