저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 트럼프 2기 정책은 성장과 인플레이션 양쪽에 상충 효과가 있어 장기 채권·주식에 부담이 되며, 인플레이션 헤지 자산(단기채·TIPS·금·원자재·기후저항 부동산) 중심 대안 포트폴리오가 필요하다는 견해. [트럼프 정책 평가] 긍정 요인: 친기업 정책으로 기업 심리 개선, 2017년 감세 영구화, 규제 완화, 석유 생산 확대(하루 300만 배럴 목표)에 따른 에너지 가격·인플레이션 하락 가능성, DOGE의 정부 효율화(스페이스X 사례로 비용 5배 절감 주장), AI·로봇 등 기술 혁신으로 잠재성장률 상승. 부정 요인: 관세 보호무역과 중국과의 전면적 경제전쟁, 대규모 추방에 따른 노동 공급 감소(성장 둔화·인플레 상승), 감세 연장 등 재정적자 확대(10년간 연 약 8조달러 비용 추정)로 금리 상승 및 성장 구축, 달러 약세 정책의 인플레이션 효과, 연준 독립성 훼손 시 기대인플레 상승. [지정학·시장 전망] 러-우 및 중동 긴장은 완화 가능, 미-중 갈등은 심화 가능성. 시장 규율(채권시장 반응)과 연준이 정책의 극단을 제약할 것. 2025년 인플레는 목표(2%) 위 약 2.5~2.6% 수준으로 남아 연준은 100bp 미만 인하 전망. 성장은 잠재치 상회(약 2.5%)하나 올해보다 약함. 채권금리 상승은 역풍, 주식은 한 자릿수 수익률 전망. [조언] 관세로 압박 후 동맹과 협상(일본·한국·대만·멕시코·캐나다 등에 방위비, 미국산 LNG·농산물·반도체 투자 요구), 'Mar-a-Lago 합의'식 환율 조정 가능성 언급. 이민은 전면 추방 대신 포인트제 도입, 연 최소 100만 명 순유입 필요. 재정적자는 GDP 대비 7% 경로 축소 필요. 연준 독립 유지, 달러는 질서 있게 강세 유지. [에너지·기후] 화석연료 가격 하락은 탈탄소 과정을 늦출 수 있으나 IRA 폐지는 실수, 일부 보조금 축소는 가능. [대안 포트폴리오(Atlas America ETF)] 인플레 장기화 가정(평균 약 6%까지 가능성). 전통 60/40의 방어자산인 장기국채가 무력화됨(2022년 사례). 선호: 단기국채, TIPS, 금 및 귀금속, 원자재(식량 포함), 기후 저항 부동산. 과거 금 가격 올해 40% 이상 상승. 중앙은행 금 보유 확대 언급. [비트코인] 인플레 헤지 아님: 인플레 상승기 하락, 주식과 양의 상관. 화폐 기능(계산단위·지불수단·가치저장) 모두 부족, 엘살바도르 법정화폐 사례도 결제 1% 미만. 투기적 자산으로 평가하며 회의적. [민주주의·포퓰리즘] 미국 제도는 여전히 회복력 있다고 봄. 포퓰리즘은 재정 악화·통화 약화·인플레로 이어져 장기채 실질가치를 훼손할 위험.
다듬은 글
welcome to the HFR podcast my name is Ana ail and I lead HFR media HFR is the established Global leader in hedge fund data and Analysis since 1992 to learn more visit hfrc welcome to the HFR podcast my name is Anika ail joining us today is Dr norel rabini a CEO of rabini macro Associates a global macroeconomic consultancy in New York he's also Chief Economist for Atlas Capital team and professor of maritess of Economics at the stern School of Business NYU Dr rini's insights and Analysis are widely regarded in the financial markets he's a prolific writer and public speaker and captured worldwide attention when he correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis from 1998 to 2000 he served on the White House Council of economic advisors and then at the US Treasury he's regularly consulted by the IMF World Bank and major public and private sector Institution tions for his expertise Dr Rini welcome to the podcast it's an honor to have you with us a great pleasure being with you today so let's Dive Right In um there's widespread sentiment that a trump Administration is good for business in the financial industry do you think that's Justified and what are the pitfalls if any well it's partially Justified I think that some of the economic policies of the Trump administ ation going to imply higher economic growth and lower inflation and being good for financial markets while some of the other policies might be causing higher inflation and possibly lower growth and being stationary it'll be bad for the bond market for the stock market and for financial Market overall now on the positive side I would say there are several things that you can uh say are going to go in the right direction one is going to be overall Pro business pro business means that business sentiment is already improving call it animal spirits more Capital spending more production more m&a activity more IPOs that's one two is going to try to make the tax cut of 2017 to reduce taxes on labor income and on corporate tax rates permanent and having lower tax rate everything else equal is positive for economic activity growth and for the markets three he has a broad agenda of deregulating the economy it's done right over time that can increase growth can increase competitiveness can even reduce inflation four and more controversially is skeptic about global climate change and he wants to supercharge production of fossil fuels the plan to increase production of us oil by 3 million barrels a day by the end of his administration if you were to be successful to do that lower energy prices imply lower inflation and having en intensive production activities being boosted and of course even the bo I going need a lot of more energy and electricity five this dodge Department of governing efficiency can help they're not going to be able to cut spending by2 trillion but there's plenty of waste the federal budget I'll give you just one example when SpaceX and rocket and satellites in space can it do it they can do it at a fraction five times less cost than what it cost doing it with NASA so even in the defense budget there's lots of waste and involving the tax sector and private sector can lead to efficiencies and finally uh us potential growth is probably already Rising because of AI robotic automation machine learning llm and lots of other technology of the future is not just Ai and if you are having the help of tech leaders like mask kill and lots of other ones then you can put strap even faster that technological innovation so that's on the positive side on the negative what are the things going to potentially cause higher inflation and lower economic growth number one of course TS protectionism and a fullscale economic war with China two if you had Draconian restriction to migration and mass deportation that would reduce the labor Supply will cause lower growth and it's going to cause higher inflation three his plan on the fiscal side imply that between the extension of the tax cut of 17 and lots of other promises no taxes on tips on overtimes on Social Security benefits on the income of US citizens residing abroad and so on and so on all these things have been estimated to cost over a decade uh8 trillion per year if that were to happen then one will go higher that's going to crowd out economic growth that excessive funded fiscal deficit that's going to be a negative four there may be plans to have a significant depreciation of the dollar over time if that were to happen will be inflationary and five some people within the Trump Administration are trying to reduce the independence of the feds maybe try to nudge them to is more and faster even if inflation remains higher if you were to Tinker we P Independence inflation expectation would rise that will be also negative and create uncertainty in financial markets now those are the forces that would go in the direction of higher inflation and lower economic growth and there's also a range of issues having to do with geopolitical risks and I think that some of those geopolitical risk might become less severe under Trump maybe a deal between Russia Ukraine maybe a deal in the Middle East but other ones like the tensions between us and China may actually escalate over time now the good news might be that the more stationary uh policies of Trumps are going to be constrained one they're going to be constrained by market discipline I would say that if his policy will lead to higher inflation higher real yields because you have run away deficits and thatb or you have restriction to migration and or high tars then Bond going to go higher the financial condition going to tighten the stock market going to correct and that can weaken economic growth and there's one thing we know about Trump he likes to have a stock market is rising and being one that is a like that doesn't want High interest rates and cost of capital and cost of credit so Market discipline and bond market viles can also constrain the worst aspects of the economic policy of trump second constraint is going to be the FED if the policies of trump were to go in the direction of increasing inflation rather than reducing it tariff migration runaway deficit kening with the FED Independence weakening the dollar the FED next year may cut rate less may even stop cutting rates in an extreme scenario where core inflation goes higher with high tarff they may even theci side to increase interest rates and we're already in economy is more in a no Landing Zone rather than a soft Landing growth is excessive about potential inflation has not Fallen Target so that will be a constraint If the Fed is still independent decides to raise rates or not cut them as much that's going to be a head R to the economic plan of trump three uh some of his economic advisors are mainstream the choice of Scott b as the designate secret PR is a good one he understands economics mcro Financial Market he knows that by way that is going to be bad for economic growth and the stock market bond market so he can push to trade to escalate is a way of De escalating but then there are other members of the administration uh Peter Navaro a real hul on trade and on China has been chosen to be a trade advisor to Trump is going to push for full economic war with China and massive tars against the rest of the world but hopefully those who are going to argue that it's better to be cautious not to Rattle the market are going to have the upper hand so the net of it is that there are some positive there are some negatives I think the impact on growth is a bit of a was next year the positive are going to be compensated by some of the more negative policies on trade migration and Def is going to push Bond higher but overall I would say the part of inflation is one that's not going to go downward towards 2% but inflation for the zmi end around 2.8% may not be as high next year it's still going to be well above Target say 2.5 2.6 that implies that the FED may have to cut rates less than 100 business points next year so the overall impact of his Poli on growth is a bit of a wash growth next year is going to be still above potential maybe two and a half but not as strong as this year 2.8% but the progress towards reducing inflation might be slowed down because of migration tariff and fiscal policies and that's going to imply some rise in bond yields going to be something of a headwind but only modest to the stock market meaning maybe single digit Returns on us activities next year as opposed to the very very high we've seen this year Professor if I understand your answer correctly and I understand the contingencies you know there's a market discipline aspect to this there is the uh potential high probability of the inflationary pressure continuing um and you of course have policy experience as well if I were to ask you to put your policy advisor hat on imagine you were part of the new Administration coming in what recommend ation would you make to the incoming Administration to mitigate the risks in terms of inflation in terms of uh you know growth being a wash um and potentially also the labor policies and trade war with China um that you just outlined well what I would suggest to them will be that on tariffs really try to escalate as a way of De escalating so you threat and tars but then you sit down with the you Japan South Korea Taiwan other friends analy in the world Mexico and Canada and say what are your concerns so you may ask them to spend more on their own defense for NATO and friends and allies in Asia you ask them maybe to spend more on buying us weapons if they're going to spend more on the fense going ask them to buy more of the US natural gas LG is going to be produced in high Supply to be exported to rest of the world maybe buy more of their agricultural goods and maybe to make sure that T rates uh are parallel same T rate we impose on them that they impose on us maybe to do more FBI in US semiconductors cars electric vehicles as opposed to imposing tariffs uh there are some bilateral issues with Canada and Mexico of course migration is a sensitive one with China the pentan issue is a very serious one and then eventually I don't think the first two years but there could be also an agreement on currencies that Trump is going to go and have a big what they call it the maralago agreement on currencies why maralago because all the currency agreements in the past for just currency have occurred in a resort at the claz agreement the Lou agreement C David agreement the Bron agreement so convening a big conference in maral Lago to convince European Asians to let their currency appreciate and let the dollar depreciate in exchange for not raising tars so so those are the kind of things so I would say that friends and allies of the US should actually engage the US say what are you worried about what can we do to help you as opposed to threaten trade Wars because you know you start a t for t the us is going to double down and since this country are all running straight surpluses with the US on net they'll be losers it's better to engage Trump and we already have seen it he threaten tars against Canada against Mexico to goes to maral Lago they a nice dinner together okay let's sit down figure out how we can help you the new president of Mexico at a cordial conversation with Trump how can we restrict migration and help you on other things that care about so hopefully those who want to escalate as a way deescalate Scott Bon and others going to have upper hand that's one thing on migration I think that of course we don't want to have undocumented workers coming us but we need these workers uh supply of labor is not sufficient there are many Americans who don't want to do the job in agriculture in uh construction even in provision of services Uber Uber e or you name it that that migrant are providing so if you want to restrict migration let's avoid Mass deportation let's make sure that a smaller number of people enter in us but let's have a system like Canada or Australia where we give you points based on your skill your education your human capital the need of different sector of the economy we still need at least a net of 1 million people people to increase the labor Supply to migration us we we don't want to have it zero or net negative with mass deportation that'll be a mistake it's going to actually increase inflation and reduce our economic growth and on the deficit I would say if you want to make tax cuts uh you know permanent fine but find ways that you can pay for it some of it might be tariff but you don't want to go hard B with tariffs some of it might be reducing some of the excessive subsidies to the green energy that came from Ira some of it might be some spending cuts are going to be recommended by this dodge commission but try to essentially make sure that our deficit is 7% of GDP is on the path of reduction gradually over time if it stays High eventually the bond market vand going to wake up bond is going to much higher going to crowd out economic growth so on each one of these things be cautious keep the FED independent you want to replace power in 2026 choose a mainstream person like Kevin asset or Kevin W don't try to go for a full do the market going to punish you and be careful about the dollar because there are fundamental reasons why the dollar is strong they have to do with your tariffs with maintaining the global Reserve currency all of the dollar relative growth trade differential within us going strong relative to other 10 countries relative monetary policy as other count will have to cut rates more than the FED because we'll have still sticky inflation so keep keep the dollar stronger rather than trying to have a disorderly follow the dollar might lead to massive Capital flight and a surge in bond years so and then do more of the policies that are having a more positive effect on E growth and reduce inflation now one of them that is energy policy I think is to reduce maybe fossil fuel prices but it's going to stop the process of decarbonization we still need a green transition climate change is a problem so phasing out or repealing IRA I think will be a mistake maybe you want to reduce the number of excessive tax subsidies that came from a but you don't want to repal alog together Ira we need fossil fuels but we also need green energy and actually a lot of the subsid are going to Red States and many of these Republican states are not going to be happy with a full repeal of the IRA right so I want to um touch on this climate friendly policies uh last week November 20th uh more than last week now uh two weeks ago you launched the atlas America fund ETF um um and quote designed it as an enhanced fixed income alternative multi-asset diversification tool and one of the key areas that it invests in is climate friendly um initiatives why do you feel now is the right time to launch this ETF and can you elaborate on the underlying investment strategy a bit for us yes uh well I do believe that you are in a world where gradually average inflation is not going to be 2% is going to be higher because both the TR policy that I described and more broader friends that I describ my M Mega threats impli that there are going to be a number of negative aggregate supply shocks going to reduce growth and increase inflation geopolitical fragmentation de globalization the risking decoupling going from offshoring to reshoring to trans uh population aging restriction to migration uh climate change Global pandemics cyber warfare dollarization backlash against liberal democracy and pro labor policies these are all medium-term negative aggregate supply shop imply High inflation lower growth on the supply side and on the demand side we have already very large budget deficit they going to increase more every is going to spend more on defense everybody's going to spend more for climate change everybody's going to spend more to prevent the next pandemic or the physcal cost going to be large everybody's going to have to have a broader social safety net because uh between globalization and Robotics many jobs that going be lost and the rising inequality implies fiscal policy Pro labor so we spend more we have limits how much we can raise taxes deficit become larger that become larger and therefore the incen to wipe out the real value of long duration fixed income and that through unexpected inflation is going to also lead that essentially to higher inflation now I'm not talking about hyperinflation not even about high inflation not even about double digit inflation I think that by the end of the decade the average inflation rate in advanced economy instead of two could be say 6% so it's a very reasonable I thought is given supply side negative Supply shock and they need to monetize large deficit in De now think about the market implication traditional investment advice is some variant of 6040 60 equity and 40 a defensive asset now what this defensive asset is long duration treasuries right and the logic is that some shocks like growth and riscon lead the equity prices going higher Bond yelds go also higher the price Falls you make money on the equity part of the portfolio you lose money on the bond but you on net make money risk off and recession Equity correct but then bond is are lower the price as bond is higher you lose money on the equity like of your portfolio you make money on the bond side of your portfolio now this negative correlation between bond prices and Equity prices holds only if inflation is low and stable if inflation is rising and look what happened for example in 2022 Rising inflation implies Rising bond yields and Rising bond yields implies the price Falls so you lose money on the defensive assets But Rising bond is like we saw in 2022 and then again a couple of other ep the last two years imply a correction of equities because the discount factor for equities the bond yield goes higher so in 22 S&P fell 15% but actually the rising yield 10 years from 1% to three and a half implied that bond prices fell more 20% so you lost more money on the defensive asset than you did on the risky assets and the correlation between bond prices and Equity price became positive rather than negative so you lost money on both legs of your portfolio so in a world where inflation is going to be even slightly higher bond yields going to have a brutal draw down because today Bond are around 4% 10 year treasuries suppose inflation were to six rather than 2% then Bond have to be at least 8% 6% for inflation and 2% because the real bond yields in a world of high de and DEP is going to be higher now bond yields going from 4 to 8% implies that the price of those bonds going to fall between 30 to 40% depending on whether it's a 10 year bond or 20 or 30 so the defensive asset in that world is a bloodb and is not anymore a defensive asset at a time where higher bond yields going to imply Al a correction of equity so you need to find an alternative for gradually Rising inflation to the defensive asset because the historical defensive asset is not defensive actually you lose money you can lose Mone money more than equities so what you do in a world where inflation is higher where there's a risk of debasement of f currency where there is a risk of dollarization where there is a risk of geopolitical tension where there is also risk of climate change making part of our real estate stock being obsolete because of flooding hurricanes drought fires and lots of other bad stuff happen first point you don't want to be in long duration treasury but short duration short-term treasury where the yield goes higher and you don't have the price impact of high Ys two you want to be overweight in tips because tips do well in that scenario three you want to be overweight in gold and other precious metals because gold is a hedge against inflation the basement of fat currency geopolitical risk but more importantly in a world in which there are geopolitical tension and we have imposed sanctions against our Rivals Russia North Korea Iran potentially China this central banks have to diversify away from Dollar assets where can they go we havec is not just the dollar but also the EUR and the Yen like in the case of Russia the only liquid Reserve asset that cannot be seized in the case of sanction is gold bullion not GLD bullion that you hold in the basement of your own Central Bank not in the basement of the fed or the bank of England the basement of the PB or the Russian Central Bank and surpris this year gold prices have gone up by over 40% the central banks are enemies but also our enemies are worried about our weaponization of the dollar for foreign policy and naal security purposes so gold good H against inflation the basement the dollarization financial crises geopolitical risk in that world of climate change the demand for commodity goes higher especially food and the supply of food with less water desertification climate change Supply is lower demand is high you want to be overweight in Commodities and in episodes of moderate inflation not high uh real estate does well but real estate does well because it's in limited Supply and you can change rents both on Commercial residential but a lot of of commercial real estate residential is at risk of climate change especially but not only North America and even movement gradual of population going from places that going to become too hot or flooded to others are going to imply significant price ranges I'll give you one example during covid many people move from New York to Miami or from San Francisco to Austin Texas that imply that home prices Rose in Texas and California in those cities by 20% they correct by 10% or more in San Francisco or in New York and that was just few hundred, people moving from New York to Florida or from California to Texas suppose that a good third of the United States because of climate change over the next few decades becomes less habitable then you have millions of people will have to migrate from the coastlines and the South to the Midwest and part of the country that is climate resilient and therefore uh the real estate price are going to fall where climate change doesn't support economic activity is going to rise so in the bucket of RS of our portfolio we look at the zip level for each one of the zip level uh of the US for these rats all of them in North America those that are subject to climate change risk and those a less subject and therefore we don't just want to be overweight in RS but in RS that are climate resistance so this combination of assets shortterm treasury tips gold precious metals a Commodities and climate resistance provides you a broad edge and a new defensive asset because the traditional defensive asset long-term treasury is going to do terrible even if inflation just gradually goes from 2 to six it's not going to be defensive anymore by the way we have $2 trillion of these treasuries and on top of treasuries there is high yield high grade in dollar terms em thatb that is in dollar all of this stuff is held by Sovereign wealth funds by private and public Pension funds endowment Foundation other Institutional Investor family office retail everybody has either 30 or 40% in those allocation into something that's going to become more risky so it's essentially a fund that invest into something of an alternative for the 40 in a 6040 portfolio it's going to give you stable good returns low volatility and when some of these stale risk are going to materialize more there is convexity the returns could become not high single digit but could even become double digits in those states of the world so you mentioned finding a store of wealth that was safe from fiat currency type risk um the incoming Administration is placing its bets quite heavily on cryptocurrency uh providing regulatory support with the announcement of the new SEC chair just yesterday the market has taken this very positively for Bitcoin the price went up to 103,000 yesterday um have your feelings changed at all about cryptocurrency given the strong political support and Regulatory leeway that is incoming for crypto they have not changed in the sense that as I pointed out our goal is to provide a hedge against inflation the basement of fat currency the dollarization you name it if you look even at the experience say of Bitcoin for the last few years you know when inflation was going higher actually uh Bitcoin was falling and it was falling when Equity were falling in part because the Fed was raising rates and now that the inflation actually is falling and the FED is cutting rates Bitcoin is surging so if you want Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or against the basement that has not been truly the case Bitcoin is just a bet relative to the Equity market and is positively correlated with Equity prices so it's not actually negative correlated so if you want the defensive asset you want a defensive asset that is negatively correlated with equities and one that actually does well when inflation goes higher uh and that's not the case for Bitcoin now Bitcoin by the way is not a currency and all these cryptocurrencies are not currencies uh they are not a unit of account they are not a scalable means of payment they're not a stable store of value they can go up 50% all 50% in a portfolio they increase a lot volatility and they're not even a single numer you even a country like El Salvador that made Bitcoin legal Pender so you have the right to pay a store with Bitcoin less than 1% of all transaction occur with Bitcoin that means is never going to be a means of payment it's not going to be a currency and as a store of value as I said one is highly volatile two is positively correlated with Equity so it's not a defensive asset so we're looking instead in our ETF at a wide range of assets that are actually negative correlated with the stock market they give you hedge against those tail risks and they are having low volatility as opposed to having high volatility so that's why I remain quite skeptic uh Bitcoin is a speculative asset like MiMi stocks like spars and other ones and often the retail investor the retail sucker comes in when there is fomo the prices are at the peak and then a 50% correction occurs and there's a bloodb so it's still a very speculative and risky investment that's why if you want safe returns and stable returns and a good defensive asset I will not go into Bitcoin so drini last question for you I want to take the Long View I want to think about uh something that's actually been in the news recently with uh the 2024 Nobel Prize winners um they have done extensive research emphasizing the Integrity of Institutions to ensure long-term economic prosperity um and many would say that there's increasing alignment between the three arms of government in the United States do you think that that poses a threat or a risk to us prosperity to its institutions and its system of checks and balances and if so what is the best way to navigate that well I think that the US is still a resilient democracy uh there have been cases when of course uh you have Unified Government rather than divided that's one of them of course uh also the Supreme Court is uh is overall for Trump but I think that we still have rule of law we have strong institutions we have a strong media and the press and there may be some authoritarian leanings of trump but if you look at the range of the people he has nominated uh actually they've been reasonable they're conservative but they're reasonable and people like G that was inappropriate got out of the race uh the nominee for DOD May out get out of the race we're not yet sure whether Patel is going to be confirmed at the FBI so I think that the institutions are really strong but it's true that uh institutions rule of law democracy is important not just in us but also all over the world and it's also true that we have seen in the last few years all over the world a backlash against liberal democracy and Democratic capitalism and populist parties and regime of either the extreme right or the extreme left coming to power but some of it has occurred because there's been a rise in income and wealth inequality and a rise also of economic insecurity so uh many people still left behind so growth is becoming one less stable because of boing Bast and financial crisis like the GFC growth is becoming less inclusive because while there is economic growth income and wealth in equality are rising and economic insecurity is rising and growth has become less less sustainable because we are destroying the planet climate change so you need policies that make growth stable inclusive and sustainable and uh but I do believe that there's going to be some degree of resilience of democratic capitalis as long as the reform in that up dire but certainly one of the things I worry about is populism and popism usually leads to poor economic policies L often to build up of that leads to debasement of the currency through inflation and therefore part of our concern is that both the geopolitical trends and the domestic political ones are one in which we're not going to be able to restrain that Deb and eventually the solution is going to be taken is going to be using the inflation tax to wipe out the real value of long duration debt again that's one of the reason why the kind of portfolio we suggest with our EPF is going to be also hedge against economic populism and some of those poor economic policy that over time have been inflationary so I do not worry about democracy in the US but I do worry about democracy in many other parts of the world but I worry that even if our democracies maintain economic pop po ism is going to lead to tariff inflation the basement and things are going to cause high inflation therefore you want to hide yourself against those types of fa risks well thank you so much Dr reini your answers have been thoughtful and thought-provoking and it's truly a pleasure to have you on the podcast thank you so much for joining us today a great pleasure being with you today thank you we hope you enjoyed listening today HFR is the institutional standard for alternative investing subscribe to HFR media updates on our website follow our podcast for more exclusive content and find us on LinkedIn and Twitter
Comments 0