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and and the idea that you know fundamentals the real world doesn't count all you need is money uh to generate real wealth i think most people can can feel is an illusion in the end the system is about the number of people working the amount of capital spending the the quality of education of your workforce that's the real world we're talking about the paper world and there's just so much blood you can get out of that the market is going to end up as we know where it is going to end up and all the paper in the world will not change the level that is justified by the flow of dividends and earnings that is after all the only thing you can end up eating is the flow of dividends and sooner or later the stock market will once again boring boring sell on the future flow of dividends and that is not going to be changed material ner and today i want to discuss jeremy grantham's appearance on bloomberg as well as his latest essay titled waiting for the last dance essentially grande predicts that we are in a historic stock market double that will burst fairly soon and which will be one of the most important events for most investors in their investing lifetime and in this video i want to discuss his ideas and share my thoughts on his predictions so let's get started and alth all right so as we outlined in the introduction the question of this video is whether we are experiencing one of the biggest financial bubbles in history well according to jeremy grantham from gmo that's what we are witnessing right now basically in the opening paragraphs of his already famous waiting for the last done dance comment he wrote the following the long long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully fledged epic bubble featuring extreme overvaluation explosive price increases frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior i believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history right along with the south sea bubble 1929 and 2000.
these great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost and where investors truly approve their mettle now grantham is clearly referring to the historically high valuations in u.s equities two common reference points are the p e ratio as well as the schiller p e ratio of the s p 500 and another commonly cited stock market indicator is the so-called buffet indicator which measures the total value of all publicly traded stocks in the market divided by the economy's gdp and all of these indicators are near record highs as a result of these historically high starting valuations return forecasts are even worse than they were in 2000 and 2008.
if we take a look at gmo's seven year real return forecasts we can see that the future market returns are look really disappointing or dire gmo is forecasting u.s large cap stocks to return a negative 6.6 annually for the next seven years today the pe ratio of the market is almost at record highs as we have just shown and hence the schiller pe implied market return is also neeger to say the least and not only is the pe ratio in the top few percent of the historical range but the state of the economy is likely in the worst few percent and that's why i think it is fair to say that there is a clear disconnect right now so i guess grantham is right when he is pointing out that investors are facing an increasingly challenging investment environment due to zero interest rates seemingly infinite central bank stimulus however we have declining productivity and also a high risk of above average inflation and thus investors need to adjust their forward-looking expectations and grantham points out the simple fact that the higher you bid up the price of an asset in the short term the lower the long term return will be it's quite a simple equation actually so the s p 500 can continue to rise at this pace for months or maybe four years even but it's important to acknowledge that your long term 10 or 20-year returns will subsequently go down stanley druckenmiller he also very recently spoke out about the uniqueness and the challenges of the current environment and he did that in a goldman sachs interview and refer to it as the wildest cocktail he has ever seen let me just show you a short sequence of that interview right here ah buckle up tony i've been doing this as some kind of chief investment officer since 1978 and this is about the wildest cocktail i've ever seen in terms of trying to figure out a roadmap um just to frame things a little the recession we had last year or whatever you want to call it the economic downturn was 5x the average recession since world war ii but it did it in 25 of the time the cares act added trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus uh how big was it in three months we increased the deficit more than if you took the last five recessions combined and those were big ones that was 73.75 the 82 recession in the early 90s the dot-com bus and then of course the great financial crisis if you added the increase in the in the deficit in all those five periods and combined them we increased the deficit in the u.s more in three months in 2020 than we did in that two minute total the fed in six weeks bought more treasuries than they did in 10 years under bernanke and yellen when people like me were screaming about how excessive qe was sure druckmill is right that the u.s specifically has borrowed a ton of money from its future and this kind of stimulus is basically unprecedented and i think no one really knows what the long-term implications of such government spending will be and he's right that the market environment is certainly very unique but personally i'm not 100 sure yet whether the market as a whole is really in bubble territory however i do think that we can quite clearly see massive bubbles in specific sectors or pockets of the market that have also driven market averages up some tech names are certainly in bubble a territory like tesla or appellant here and so our so-called meme stocks or what happened to maybe the heavily uh shortage stocks like games your gamestop is certainly not normal market behavior and maybe lastly we can point out the spectrum which can also be considered unsustainable so what i would say is that valuation in certain pockets of the market is absolutely looking elevated it has reached some insane levels in some areas of the market and the investors that are concentrated in these names are likely heading for a very very rough landing i would say but if we factor in the ultra low interest rates we are currently seeing and which will likely remain at the current levels for at least a few years the market as a whole may not be as excessively overvalued as it as it may seem at first the thank stocks for instance just to use maybe a couple of stocks that most everyone is familiar with well to me these tech stocks don't appear excessively overvalued in fact some of these names appear to be fairly valued and to quote grantham again he agrees with me here and were in his essay today's market features extreme disparities in value by asset class sector and company those at the very cheap end include traditional value stocks all over the world relative to growth stocks value stocks have had their worst ever relative decade ending december 2019 and just on a side note extreme overvaluation is certainly a feature of the late stages of a market cycle but crazy investor behavior like we have seen in game stops kodak's or maybe nicola stock family members or taxi drivers asking for investment advice or maybe lastly hostile reactions if you mention some of the risks baked into the sky higher evaluations just take a look at the comment section of my tesla video well those are certainly other indicators of a of a bubble burst becoming more likely so i guess one major question you are asking yourself now is what should you do now considering all of these signs of a bubble does this mean that i think you should sell off your positions now well let me be very clear here definitely not if you read the opening lines of graham's essay or listen to him and drug muller when they appear on a major news network i think it's tempting to think that you should sell of your all all of your investments at once and i can feel that urge too but you have to be honest with yourself here if you sell everything based on such a macro forecast you are essentially trying to time them the market and this is certainly not the game i am playing and then my view trying to time the market will never work that's a philosophy that will never work consistently at least surely some people might get get lucky but it's not a strategy i would say seth clarman for example he has been warning about the market conditions for a couple of years now but so far valuations haven't come down to their historical averages and this doesn't mean that klaman wasn't right a few years ago it just shows that you cannot predict how the market will behave in the short term and grantham 2 writes in his essay all prior bubble markets have been extremely overvalued as is this one overvaluation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for their bursting calling the week month or quarter of the top is all but impossible remember that timing the bursting of bubbles has a long history of disappointment and grantham also said the following when he appeared on bloomberg we cannot know the market had resisted opportunities to bubble earlier in this 11-year cycle it looked like it was getting pretty close about three years ago and then it just kind of fizzled away the confidence dissipated the market had a decline and those bull markets can go on forever and you don't know how long and you don't know how high they can go the back of every bear's mind must surely be japan japan in 1989 managed to get to 65 times earnings it had never previously gone over 25 until that cycle so that is the thing that makes the bears wake up in the middle of the night sweating so you just don't know how long and how high a market can can go if you avoid the burst of euphoria it's the burst of euphoria that typically brings these things to an end and we are seeing it all around us today however what's important to point out here is that when he appeared on bloomberg he also tried to predict when the bubble will burst he referred to the insane levels of euphoria and actually thinks that the bubble will burst fairly soon the city sentiment index is reflecting a level of investor optimism that dwarfs that of the previous peak of irrational exuberance at the turn of the century what's quite remarkable about this level of euphoria in my opinion is that it is generated when the global economic and also geopolitical scene is quite fragile so referring to this euphoria grantham also said the following what is to stop valuations from climbing even higher for years possibly put it this way when you have reached this level of obvious super enthusiasm the bubble has always without exception broken in the next few months not a few years it's always you can't maintain this level of near ecstasy it can't be done because you've put in your last dollar you are all in what are you supposed to do beyond that point you can't borrow any more money you can't take any more risk in fact you know in your heart of hearts you have never taken this level of risk and you never thought you would it's just that this opportunity is so exceptional this is going to be your once in a lifetime and and how do you keep that level of enthusiasm going indefinitely this is a monetary game and you can keep these little monetary bubbles going for just so long as long as you keep confidence rising but when confidence has reached these levels the history books are pretty clear it's very difficult to increase your enthusiasm from a state of mild hysteria where we are and in his written comment he was even more precise he believes that the summer of this year so 2021 when the broad rollout of the covet vaccine was hopefully successful investors will realize that the most pressing problem the world economies had to deal with will have been solved but that the economies around the world have suffered a lasting damage and that the loose monetary policy we have been witnessing for a couple of months now cannot be maintained forever but just to be clear here even though grantham's line of argumentation may sound convincing i still don't recommend to try to play that market timing game and obviously this is not investment advice but just my humble opinion but personally i honestly pretty much ignore all of these macro level predictions they have no or zero impact on my investment decisions and monish per pry he said in recent talk that micro drums macro and that's kind of a phrase that has stuck with me and that's what i try to focus on as well so if you are an individual investor who is actively picking stocks should always track your holdings that should be your top priority i think it's important to periodically re-evaluate your current holdings it's like an on-flight checklist if you want you could ask yourself if their business is still strong is the mode still intact and does the balance sheet still look bulletproof so that the company could weather any storm that might emerge our valuations still reasonable and does the company still enjoy a secular talent i think tracking these is the job you should be focused on and that are a requirement if you want to successfully pick individual stocks i for one i'm actually fully invested invested right now and i'm confident in the future prospects of the businesses i own and even though some stocks valuation are maybe rather high i still think they are not excessively valued yet which would make me maybe consider selling them and other stocks of mine are actually rather undervalued i would say and why would i want to sell these holdings just because the market as a whole is trading at high levels i would say i'm very well aware of the risks of trying to trade in and right out of my most successful positions a concept i actually outlined in a previous video of mine in which i discussed the art of not selling so for now i'm sticking with my winners and try to implement a business owner mindset but i'm also tracking my positions quite cautiously i would say and when the market as a whole crashes usually everything goes down and maybe my stocks go down as well and that's basically what we met witnessed in march of 2020 but you have to realize that those are just paper losses and truly internalize this business owner mindset because then these paper losses will not really bother you so i guess the bottom line here is that i'm quite excited to witness what will happen this year i'm sure that the peer weird we are living in right now will occur in many financial history books and with that being said you
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