저자: よっちゃん · 외국인
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SOXL(3배 레버리지 반도체 ETF)의 2024년 매매 타이밍을 차트 분석으로 설명. 1월 말 약 $40 고점 후 2월부터 조정, 4월 약 $24 저점에서 매수 시 5개월 내 2.4배 수익 가능성 제시. 이후 여름 $78.6 고점과 하락 추세를 언급하며 SOXL 장기 보유는 위험하다고 경고. 2025년 9월경 하락 전환과 약 80% 하락 가능성도 언급. 자신은 CFD를 선호한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
Hello, today I'd like to explain specific buying and selling timings for those of you who want to take advantage of the bombing opportunity with SOXL in 2024. This is purely my personal opinion, and I will update it as needed, so please subscribe to the channel, hit the notification button, and press the like button, it would be very encouraging, thank you.
Yes, SOXL is a reaction force, and the number of atoms in it is the instant death number. My image of the big 45-year game is this upward trend. It will go up and down, and will be affected by high interest rates, but it will eventually rise on a right-sloping trend. Yes, that's the image. However, there will be wild fluctuations, and for SOXL, which is a 3x stock, a big drop is still waiting in the future, so the selling time is when you take profits.
If you keep these points in mind and play your cards right, I think you'll have a chance to increase your capital all at once. Yes, this video was recorded in 4K. We are displaying a detailed zigzag chart, so please be sure to view it in 4K resolution. Okay, now I'd like to read this text. SOXL underwent a corrective decline of over 10% in early January, forming a double bottom.
Here, a double bottom has formed, and the target low is around $28. Yes, I think this area will be the immediate target for the market. In particular, in the past, when we plot the wicks where the price was bought at these key levels, and then plot the selling points, we can draw parallel channels like this.
If we extend these, we can see the price range that could be the target for the decline this time, and that is around $28. Yes, that is the immediate target. This decline occurred in early January, and it did fall a little yesterday, so it will continue for a little while. So, I have the image that it will fall by about 10.92% to a little over 10% from the current price.
In terms of atomic count, I think it will fall to around 3.718% or 4014. Is that clear so far? And then it will form a double bottom, and the channel is rising on the right shoulder, so please take a look at this. Where was the right place to buy? It would be a counter-trend entry, but it's better to do it as early as possible, right?
If you buy at the earliest stage of this channel, you wo n't be exposed to unrealized losses, and at this point it fell, this red circle shape, and then it will rise with a double bottom, so the lows are rising and the highs are rising, but it fell, it made an upward pattern and then fell, so what do you think here?
In the scenario I'm imagining this time, it's a double top or a triple top, or something like that, so it's making a shape that looks like it's going down, but then it goes against the trend and rises, but the market is like this There are many things I don't understand, like it's trying to deceive you, like it's showing an upward trend and then gapping up and plummeting, but it's the opposite, yes, this time it went down, but this time it's forming a shape that goes down but also goes up, yes that's the image, and along with this channel and these key levels, yes when it touches here, it's roughly the first touch and I think it will aim for around $2 in January, quite early, I think, yes, and then it will form a double bottom and when the neckline turns upward, it will rise sharply towards the middle of January, yes, so those who bought here will be able to make a large unrealized profit, and at the end of the month, yes, around here, January 29, yes at the end of the month, it will reach around $40, which is the peak forecast, yes there is the upper limit of the channel on the extension of this red plot just above or just above $4, yes I think it will peak out around here, yes those who bought at this low price will have seen a 45% increase It's around 456, yes, your money will increase by a little less than 1.5 times, and if you ask how long that will take, well, in less than a month, yes, your funds will increase by a little less than 1.5 times, and, however, from February, we entered a bear market and a correction, yes, a correction like the one that happened this summer will last for about two and a half months, yes, a downward trend on the weekly chart, and in about two and a half months, it will fall to around $24, and so, most of the people who jumped in midway through the rise will end up with unrealized losses, so I think that kind of decline is coming, yes, the decline that happened this summer was a little less than 50%, so the decline will be a little less, a drop of about 40%, and I think the bottom will ultimately be around $24, yes, is that right?
I've drawn a straight line downwards, but if we actually draw the price movements realistically, this is just a sample, but I think it will look something like this. It will come like this, and this is just a sample, but I think it will decline like this. So, it will look like it will fall stubbornly for a while around the top of $40, then rise again, then drop sharply, and then rise again, and while being supported by this channel, it will fall one more level from there, and finally create a pullback and the final sell climax will come.
That's the general idea. So, the fine zigzag looks like this, but to put it simply, it's this straight line. This straight line alone looks very unnatural, but if I say that the price will move like this, I think you can get a relatively similar image of the decline. What do you think? Yes, so, from February to around April, be careful of the decline as the upper limit of the channel is reached.
There are also those, so I want to say that you need to be careful. Yes, the low price around April was the biggest event of 2024, and that was around $24. Those who were able to buy at the low price around April have seen their capital increase dramatically, becoming 2.4 times their initial investment in just under 5 months.
So this is the final, real opportunity. Those who bought in early spring, in April, are the winners and will likely see a huge surge. Yes, the biggest event of 2024 was when it reached $24. From there, it surged to $60, which is 144. So, your capital increased 2.4 times in just under 5 months. Yes, so if you had 50 million yen, it would become 140 million yen, or maybe 120 million yen.
It depends on your capital, but if you invest a lot, you can make a profit. Yes, there is a risk of losing a lot, but there is also a possibility of making a lot, a possibility of making a profit. Yes, there is a dream. And then, from there, there is a downward trend. Where is that? It is around summer.
It rose sharply until around summer, and SxL was $60 last year, $74 last year. It did n't quite reach that high, yes, around 78.6, the peak here. This is the biggest peak, the highest market price. From here, it fell back to the lowest point of around 78.6, and from there it was a downward trend again.
Yes, that is the tough part about 3x leveraged ETFs. Yes, they don't rise very quickly. Yes, in the short term, you can make a lot of money, but if you hold on for the long term, you end up losing everything, like everything. Yes, you end up losing more than last summer. Yes, that is the kind of stock 3x leveraged ETFs are.
So, in the end, you have to think about how the ups and downs are likely to occur. The number of atoms goes up like this, but along with this, you gather evidence and think about the ups and downs. When it goes up and down, for example... From this September, if the index falls below the upper limit of the 31 channel, how much will the 3x ETF of 31 fall?
Well, it wouldn't be surprising if it fell by 80% or even 85%. The 3x ETF is very risky, so holding it long-term is extremely dangerous and will also take a toll on your mental health. It's not something you should hold onto for the long term. Is that clear? SOXL is not something you should hold onto for the long term.
I'm stating this clearly. And from there, it will transition into a downtrend and turn into a decline similar to that of 2000-2022. It will transition into a downtrend around September of next year, and this type of decline will see a drop of about 80%. So when you look at the chart, it does n't look like it's trending upwards at all.
But when you look at the index, it's trending upwards as usual. If it continues to rise in this way, the 3x SOXL chart will end up looking like this. No matter how many times you calculate it... Even with simulations, this is what happens, so it's hard to make ends meet. So, I think people who bought around this time in 2021 will continue to suffer from unrealized losses.
So, I think the time to sell will be when it returns to around this level next summer. That's what I think about people who bought around this time. Is that clear? So, while holding soxl for the long term is dangerous, if you take advantage of these waves with short-term swing trading, and approach it with this image in mind, I think you can get a huge profit.
Now, you might be wondering why I don't buy it, and that's because I think CFDs are a more efficient way to make money. I think CFDs will increase your money faster than this 3x leveraged stock. So, I do CFDs. However, as a trial, I think it might be worth buying at this point. My mind might change next year.
So, looking ahead, next year, towards the end of the year, yesterday, it dropped a little, right? Yes, it dropped a little, right? I think the continuation of this will be at the beginning of the year, and I think that instead of it rising again immediately from here, in the short term it will drop about 10%, to around $28, and then a double bottom will form around the low of this bearish candle, so I think that will be the first thing we'll see at the beginning of the year, and that will be the venue, so I'd like you all to draw channels on the charts of soxl or Atoms, and when it falls to these support zones, you should consider buying there, because if you buy at these low points, your money will increase all at once, but just because your money is increasing doesn't mean you should leave it alone for too long, or you'll lose a lot again, so the speed of the decline is extremely fast, so we need to be careful around here, take profits, take profits properly, and then buy again here If we can buy again in the spring, I think we can make a very good trade.
However, I will continue to adjust my scenario as my perspective gradually shifts, and price movements are difficult to predict, aren't they? So I will continue to make adjustments and upload videos. Please subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications, and if you like, I would appreciate it if you could press the like button. That's all for today, thank you very much.
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