저자: JeffreyGundlach/RickRule · 외국인
요약 보기
Gundlach는 연준이 2년물을 따라가지만 장기금리(10·20·30년)는 통제력을 잃을 것이며, 재정적자 확대로 국채 재구조화나 달러 평가절하가 올 수 있다고 주장. 장기금리 상승 시 금 등 실물자산이 유리하다는 논리이며, 본인은 금 10%와 원자재 ETF(DBCM 계열) 보유. Rule은 금광 기업으로 자금이 흐르기 시작했다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Thought his kind of tough guy act didn't go over very well. Scott Bessent when he said I am the house. Bet a house bet against the house if you want. And what did everybody do? They bet against the house. Yeah, that that kind of backfired. That's one of the reasons they're going to hike is the two years 100 basis points above the Fed funds rate right now, which is pretty far out there.
This is not as bad as 2000 22. But it's about 2/3 as bad. Uh for the the Fed the Fed follows the two-year and the only Fed has followed the two-year ever since basically Greenspan. Volcker and Greenspan not so much, but everybody since then has followed the two-year and the two-year is saying really the two-year is saying should hike 50.
Mhm. But they're not going to do that. going to do that. No, not going to do that. So, they'll they'll do 25. Um you and I've talked about like the next recession. You've talked about the end game would be um the dollar debasement ultimately. Would Would this be a dollar debasement, debt restructuring, or both?
Maybe. It was not all that long ago when central bank manipulations occurred at the fringe. Uh and interest rates were partially a function of the markets. President Clinton said if he died he wanted to come back at the bond market because it was the most powerful entity on humankind. Uh some of his economic goals were thwarted by what he called the bond vigilantes.
Uh one only needs to go back 30 years in history to see a very different uh interest rate market. And I suspect [clears throat] that that is a preview of coming attractions. Uh I believe that you'll see be continuation of the circumstance that you now where the Fed is able to maintain control over the two-year because they're such predominant players in the two-year but they lose control of the rate on the 10-year and the 20-year and the 30-year.
And that has profound implications. Uh and [clears throat] the implications for a broader society are not good. They likely as not necessitate a reckoning. Uh I went through the last reckoning. Uh that was in 1981-1982, the Volcker years. It seems like you're trying to do the impossible. Mhm. You know, you're you're trying to you're trying to deal with a runaway deficit problem at a time, you know, a time when the Federal Reserve chair acknowledges that probably he's going to have to be hiking rates at a time when the president wants interest rates to be zero or the lowest in the world.
We we should have the lowest interest rates in the world, he says. Why? I mean, we've we've got an enormous debt. Why should we have the lowest interest rates? People people aren't willing to lend us money at zero. You you won't be able to do it. No one's going to lend money to the US at zero. So, it's an impossible job because you're trying to do you're you're trying to do uh too many things at one time with one you know, with just a couple of policies at your disposal.
The problems are very complicated and interconnected. And you know, you got a hammer, so every everything looks like a nail when you got a hammer. You So, I I don't I don't envy him, but I thought I I thought his kind of tough guy act didn't go over very well, Scott Bessent, when he said I am the I am the house.
the house. Bet the house Bet against the house if you want. And what did everybody do? They bet They bet against the house. house. Yeah, that that that kind of Yeah. So, we'll see what happens. Yeah. Um you also have taught you've taught us on this network um that the Fed follows the two-year more than it leads.
Yeah, well, that's that's one of the So, I've said in the past that rates will naturally go up if they're left to market forces and that certainly has happened. And at some point, they will reach a level where it's decided that some extraordinary measure maybe has to be taken. And when you're dealing with a deficit that's headed towards 50 trillion, you know, and maybe headed to 10 or 12% of GDP in the next recession, what are you going to do?
You're going to inflate the deficit away by printing money or uh devaluing the the deficit therefore, or are you going to restructure the Treasury debt by extending maturities and or reducing coupons? Those are really the only two methods that you can do it. Even even cutting entitlements isn't going to do it because you've already got all that debt.
It would slow it down, obviously, which would be a good thing, but it's not really going to uh change the trajectory. And during recessions, the deficit typically goes up by 4 to 6%. So, we might have a a deficit that's 12% of GDP. And we can't finance that. And meanwhile, the hyperscalers and the AI guys, they have insatiable demand now for borrowing money at today's rates.
The spreads went wider and they didn't care and they won't care. They won't care if the rates go up 200 basis points. They're not They're not talk thinking about making seven or 9% IRRs uh if they're sitting We've spewed out $7 billion of giveaway money and we were too stupid to not think that inflation was going to go towards double digits.
When I was 5 years old, this is true story. I was 5 years old, we were we were poor. We couldn't afford a clothes dryer. My mother had to hang the stuff on the line which was difficult cuz in the winter in Buffalo you got to do it do it in the basement. And we were struggling for money and I said, "Mom, I got this great idea.
The government can just give everybody a million dollars and everybody will be fine." And my mother said, "Oh, well, the problem with that idea is an apple would apple would cost $100." And I said, "You're right." I was 5 years old. I thought I'd come up with this wonderfully brilliant creative, you know, eureka idea and my mother shuts me down and I go, "Yeah, you're right.
Obviously it wouldn't change anything. It would just it would just change how many zeros things cost." A 5-year-old I understand this. And we had J. Powell say inflation was transitory. J. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve didn't think that inflation was going to be any problem after the $7 trillion.
And it's it's sort of incredible and now we've got There will be people who believe that the US 10-year Treasury yielding five, given that it's perceived as a riskless instrument, I would quarrel with that but it doesn't matter. Uh is a relatively attractive return scenario. Um I happen to believe myself that the deterioration of the purchasing power of the US dollar is marching along at eight or 10.
So, I'm of the belief that I'm not receiving five, which is the nominal interest rate, but rather losing three, uh which is the rate of deterioration of the US dollar over uh the nominal interest rate but my wishes are uh of less consequence. What I need to leave your younger listeners with is the sense
Now, I think people don't understand. I keep hearing people on TV, and I was just in a meeting where this guy was questioning me. They say that they they want to protect themselves from the long end nominals. They don't like They've seen that they've underperformed, so they want to buy long-term tips.
They want to buy 30-year tips. Most people don't understand that 30-year tips do not protect you from rising interest rates. If you do a chart of the yield on the nominal bond and the yield on the tips, you'll notice that they moved they've moved exactly the same for the past 6 years. The difference between the two has been in constant.
So, rates went up 500 basis points on nominals, they also went up 500 basis points on tips. So, you did not you did not have a zero price performance on the tips. They went down just as much as the nominals. It's the ones that protect you from inflation are 5 years and in. 5 years and in, okay. Okay, so you pointed out that a lot of investors might not understand this.
Is there anything else out there that might be more consensus that folks are just getting absolutely wrong when it comes to investing? Anything else that's out there for you? You mean For historical reference, I would point your listeners to the decade of the 1970s. Where over the course of 10 years, interest rates rose approximately fourfold.
And the gold price ran 26-fold. If the reason for the increase in interest rates has to do with the fact that investors are demanding a greater yield as a consequence of their fears of inflation, these higher interest rates can go hand in hand with uh an increase in gold price. They're both the increases are both due to the same root cause.
And I suspect that a study of the decade of the '70s will be useful to people who are trying to understand what's going to happen to their portfolios over the next 10 years. I think there are eerie parallels. What is different compared to the 1970s compared to today's of course now that the government debt to GDP ratios is orders of magnitude higher.
And when you have that every percentage point of interest rates of course immediately means significantly more interest payments for the government and kind of makes the bond financing problem. And then I have I have 20% in real assets which I'm now up to 10% gold again. 10% gold, okay. Yeah, I had been I had been 25% gold about a year ago, but I paired that back to five when it was up over $5,000.
But now it's down to 4,300 and so back to 10. And then the other 10 I'm just using our commodity strategy. It's an ETF DCMT. DCMT for commodity. Uh and that's it's a it's rebalances it's rules-based. At the end of every month it rebalances. That's up 38% year-to-date, so that's doing awfully well. Uh I think the lesson of that is that people who buy gold need to set in their own mind the circumstances that would cause them to sell gold.
Uh in other words, they need to employ the discipline on themselves uh that would keep them from overstaying their welcome. Uh in my case, the list is as follows. Uh there would need to be a balanced US federal budget. There would need to be sufficient political accord that we could begin to reduce the debt.
There would need to be political accord necessary to deal with 120 trillion dollars in unfunded entitlement liabilities and the interest rate on the US 10-year Treasury would need to reflect a yield premium over the rate of deterioration of the US dollar. Which is to say uh a 10-year Treasury with a nine or a 10 or an 11 handle.
Uh I suspect that there could be a time when at least the fourth challenge could be met. That occurred. Make no mistake, the next 10 years are going to be hard compared to the last 40. They're going to be hard. We have big things we have to deal with. But the fact that things are hard for society does not mean that they have to be hard for Mr.
Schmitz. Uh your outcome doesn't have to be the same as society's outcome. It's important that you understand that and it's important that your listeners understand it. Uh you don't have to participate. Uh well, hopefully you do you do participate in the redistribution of assets and income. In other words, hopefully yours grow.
Well, sadly other people's don't. Uh and that choice is largely yours. With gold trading at new all-time highs, gold producers are printing money. And this means that for the first time in years, money is beginning to flow into exploration. This is a trend
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