U.S. economy needs supply side to come through, says Mohamed El-Erian

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관세·인플레이션 불확실성은 올해 내내 있었으나 기업 실적·기술적 지표·기업 미국 경기 견고성이 시장을 지지. 수요 측면은 충분하나 공급 측면(생산성·규제완화 효과)이 아직 필요. 연준은 여름 관세 영향 확인 후 완만한 인하가 바람직하나 늦을 위험 우려. 4월 급락 후 80일 내 신고가 회복 학습효과로 시장은 관세 발표에 비교적 둔감.

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01. Today's tariff news, yet another reminder of the challenges that could still cause volatility for stocks in the second half of the year. We're joined now by Muhammad Alerian, Alian's chief economic adviser. Welcome back. It's always good to see you. Thanks for having me. Should we be optimistic or cautious or or what for as we make the turn here to the back nine of 2025?

02. So, look, Scott, we've had these uncertainties all year long, tariffs, inflation, you name it, we've had it. But we've had three drivers. We've had confidence about margins. We've had good technicals. And we've had this notion that no matter how messy the sovereign is, corporate America is fine. So what you need now is not the demand side.

03. The demand side is fine. You need the supply side to respond. You need productivity to go up. You need also the front loading of the stimulus package. And finally, we need this deregulation package. If we get that, then yes, we'll be volatile, but okay. But we really need the supply side now to respond.

04. I mean, the administration would say, "What do you mean we still need? We just gave it to you. We just passed this tax extension, the tax cut extension, and now we're going to pile on deregulation, and this is going to stimulate economic growth that's going to send this stock market to the moon." So, we'll say you've absolutely given us on the demand side.

05. Fiscal stimulus is significant. and monetary stimulus is on its way. We don't have an issue with demand. We need to understand better what's the big deregulation coming. We need to see the impact of the productivity gains and you need to see the private sector respond to some of the incentives they just got.

06. Look, don't worry about the demand side. We will get the rate cuts and we have 6 to 7% deficits for as long as you can see in the future. is the supply side that has to come and we still don't know how much deregulation we're going to get. I mean, this is always the great bet and the great wish when you do some of these types of policies and you say this is at its essence supply side economics.

07. If you build it, they will come. Well, it's going to take a little while to see in fact if they come and continue to spur this economy onward. But, I mean, we're going to get the productivity gains. We we already know that, don't we? Because of AI. It's just a matter of when and by how much. We're definitely going to get them.

08. The issue is diffusion. How quick is diffusion through the economy. And that is still an unknown. And I talked to people who have embraced it. And I talked to other people who are nowhere near embracing it. So you're going to also get sectoral effect. Look, Scott, we're running an experiment. It's not often that you have pedal to the metal on the supply side and pedal to the metal on the demand side.

09. It's, you know, this is going to be new and it's going to be really interesting to watch. You think that these tariff rates announced today will be the ultimate tariff rates that are in play cuz that is at the heart of this whole conversation. How investors are trying to game out the market. They're like, "Well, we've seen this movie before.

10. I don't care what they say today because we know it's not going to be the case tomorrow and by August it's certainly not going to be the worst case scenario and that these are just going to be negotiated lower and the market's going to figure it out before not. Yeah, that's certainly the narrative. The conditioning of the market has been let's wait and see.

11. Nothing is final. And you know what? We learned the lesson in April. We sold off violently in April only to see highs, record highs within 80 days. So that's certainly the conditioning of the market and that's why you're seeing a relatively muted response to what we're hearing today because what we're hearing today are quite high tariff rates.

12. Well then the other fuel of course is the one I know you like talking about more than anything else is the Federal Reserve. Whereas those who say okay fine they're they may be late. He may be in fact too late chair pal, but it doesn't matter because he's gonna show up if things even get a sniff of bad and that's going to be another perfect thing that keeps this market going higher.

13. Yeah, but there again we are in uncharted water. Look how politicized the whole thing is becoming. The problem we have, the fundamental problem we have is we don't know what inflation is going to be. Um, you've had people talk about, oh, who's going to swallow the higher tariffs? Is it the exporter?

14. Is it the importer? Is it the consumer? Is it somebody else's profit? No one knows who it's going to be. What we do know so far is we haven't seen much of an effect, but that's because the tariff impact really comes in during the summer. So, this inflation uncertainty has to be resolved before you can be totally relaxed about how many cuts are we going to get.

15. You're going to get cuts. The question is how many? Oh, so you think J Pal's right in waiting to see what happens with the tariffs? No. If I was J Pal, I would be cutting, but I would be cutting at a steady, slow pace. I worry that he's going to be proven late. I really do worry about this. Um, but let's see.

16. Late but right is better than late and wrong because there are much more dramatic consequences to being wrong. Um, yes, there certainly are consequences on both sides, but if you do a typical analysis, type one error or type two error, you're more likely to be able to catch up on a type one error, means you're early, than a type two error, which means you're it.