저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 현재 시장이 1995년 인터넷 버블 초기와 유사하다고 보며, AI·블록체인·원자력 등 혁신과 규제 완화로 생산성 상승과 장기 성장이 올 것이라 주장한다. 인플레이션(실질 CPI 1.9%)은 하락 추세, 재정적자는 GDP 대비 4.7%이나 성장으로 줄어들 수 있다고 본다. 노동시장은 실업률 4.3%로 안정적이나 고용 둔화가 관찰되며, 이는 구조적 변화의 신호로 해석한다. 금리 곡선은 여전히 역전 또는 평탄 상태로 디플레이션 내러티브를 반영한다고 본다. 비트코인은 금 대비 장기 상승 중이며 제도권 채택 시 수혜가 기대된다고 언급한다. 다만 과거 버블처럼 자본이 과도하게 몰리면 결과가 나쁠 수 있다는 점도 인정한다.
다듬은 글
on on PCs. Uh and uh what we're seeing it suggests that we are today where we were um with uh the internet in 1995. And 1995 through 1999 was the biggest burst in uh in the in the growth sector of the market in history. It went in it went too far, too much capital, chasing too few opportunities too soon.
Uh and so it ended badly. Uh but we're just at the beginning of this and uh we're pretty excited about it and uh uh we think that it that this is much more on the consumer side in the enterprise. So you've heard about the MIT study that the Wall Street Journal featured saying no productivity gains from AI
in the history of finance. Such moments are uncommon. Technology and macroeconomic forces clash every few decades to usher in a new age of economic expansion. Kathy Wood of Arch Invest claims that we are currently in a similar situation as right before the internet became widely used and drastically changed the global economy.
Markets went through one of the biggest expansion waves in history at that time propelled by optimism, innovation, and capital seeking opportunities. It ended suddenly but not before changing the regulations governing international trade. According to Cathy, we are already witnessing the beginnings of something rather similar.
But this time, the scope of invention and the prevailing economic conditions may make the upcoming years much more revolutionary. In contrast to the pessimistic predictions that fill the news, Kathy thinks that productivity is about to increase, inflation is declining, and a wave of technical advancement is paving the way for previously unhearded economic growth.
One of her greatest arguments is that real GDP growth might surpass projections and progressively lower the deficit as a percentage of GDP with the support of deregulation and innovation in industries like artificial intelligence, robots, nuclear energy and blockchain. This assertion is not merely theoretical.
During the 1980s and 1990s, Reagan to Clinton transition robust growth converted deficits into C. According to Cathy, a comparable result might occur in the upcoming years. Simultaneously, deregulation is bringing back dormant economic sectors. While other countries like China grew rapidly, the US was unable to develop nuclear energy for decades due to regulatory obstacles.
Those obstacles are finally coming down today. The United States is swiftly entering what Kathy refers to as a new nuclear age as a result of artificial intelligence driving exponential need for energy and processing capacity. Advanced energy storage, small modular reactors, and more extensive deregulation in AI and cryptocurrency are paving the way for productivity increases that have the potential to drastically alter the course of US economy.
We'll dissect her most recent analysis from her monthly podcast. In this video, Kathy offers a road map that goes against the conventional wisdom of stagnation and crisis, including topics such as the deficit, deregulation, unemployment, and innovation platforms. You will hear her complete insights in a moment, so stay tuned.
Please remember to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and leave a comment below if you appreciate this type of forward-looking analysis. Thank you, and have fun with the video. in money goes down. Uh savings rates go up, people are more conservative. Uh and uh from a cyclical point of view, we also think uh velocity is falling uh because and we'll get into this more with the labor uh report.
Um there are a lot of people who are afraid of losing their jobs uh because of AI and that's in the higher income um households uh and automation generally uh and that's uh probably more on the the manufacturing level. So uh I think there is concern out there. It's a question when when I go around the world, everyone asks about, you know, jobs being displaced and destroyed by robots and AI and and our answer from a secular point of view is technology is a net job creator.
Sure, there's displacement in the short term, but these displaced jobs are usually u mundane uh uh boring, not interesting, tedious uh and and there are two phenomenon, two phenomena uh today that um that will offset any of this displacement. We have baby boomers retiring at an accelerated rate. And um if you think about truck drivers, uh a lot of baby boomers uh uh have been the truck drivers and there are big shortages there.
So autonomous trucking uh we think is going to become very important in alleviating uh that labor shortage. Uh so so so that's one good example. And then of course uh there has been I think if I I I I might have this number wrong but uh the number of uh people leaving this country because for reasons associated with immigration whether it's illegal or fear or or what have you um is in the one to two million range.
And again, many of those jobs are in mundane uh mundane areas that automation uh will help us improve whether it's paperwork uh or or um leisure and hospitality work. So uh I think this couldn't happen at a better time given those demographic shifts. Um again though that said and and I suggest you do this exercise.
Go to chat GPT or Grock and ask it prompt it. We're all programmers now. We can uh prompt it with natural language. Um uh what kind of jobs will automation and AI create? uh and and in the prompt suggest that it consults uh science fiction, futurists, technologists, economists, strategists uh and uh and then answer that question and you will find a a very long list is the output.
uh and and um one of the jobs that I find interesting because again it gets us thinking wait a minute there are whole new spaces being created literally here uh so one is asteroid mining right so think about space what kind of jobs uh are we going to see created there think about blockchain and the digital world now that we have immutable digital property rights online didn't have it before But now that we do and you know in a game someone can win a a Gucci skin and it's their skin and theirs alone and and there's proof of that.
Um that is how a lot of young people are deriving social status these days and uh that's a whole new world that is just now being monetized. Uh I think it's one reason also we're going to see uh roadblocks continue to flourish uh because it is so many things. It's not only a a social site, a gaming site.
Uh young people are actually coding and they don't even know it and they are starting new businesses, learning how to run them. Uh so it's pretty exciting what's being created out there. Uh but I I have to tell you I go around the world and there's just so much fear. Uh again a reason we think velocity could continue to uh fall.
Onto the next chart. So monetary policy is it tight or easy? This chart um which Dan Rodriguez at ARC uh pointed us to is the the yield curve as measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the threemonth Treasury yield. And um anything below zero which you see here is tight monetary policy. And you can see it has been tight for a very long time.
Uh and we think this is going to have disinflationary if not deflationary ramifications uh with time and it certainly fits into the narrative that uh President Trump and the administration have put forth like hey don't you see what's going on here? Uh, and uh, on the next page is a different version of the yield curve.
It's the 10-year Treasury minus the two. Cathy starts her analysis by focusing on the deficit, which is a market lightning rod issue. She notes that tariffs and fiscal adjustments are already improving the numbers. With the deficit approaching 4.7% of GDP, despite the widespread concern that growing debt will stifle growth, however, growth itself is the true force behind this.
Similar to the 1980s and 1990s, deficits may naturally decline if real GDP expansion was greater than anticipated. And Cathy says that growth is on the horizon, driven by quick innovation in a number of industries. She believes that deregulation and productivity gains could be the most effective means of reviving the economy.
Her larger thesis is established by this. Our future is one of acceleration rather than stagnation. However, there are obstacles to expansion. Kathy focuses her attention to the labor market, job creation, unemployment, and the structural changes that artificial intelligence is already bringing about in her subsequent research.
Treasury yield. Now, this is in positive territory. But if you look at past recessions, and those are in the shaded areas here, uh the the uh steepening of the yield curve uh after an inversion tends to occur during a recession. And as you know, we've been talking about this rolling recession for the past three years.
Manufacturing's been negative for the past three years. Uh housing has been decimated over the past three years. Uh the the uh the low and middle inome consumer has been hurt badly during the past three years. Higher interest rates, higher food prices, housing affordability. Um so very difficult times.
Now what I find interesting about this chart is sure again we're we're in this rolling recession. We think it's the final leg of the rolling recession. And what I'm eager to understand as the Fed cuts rates, this will continue uh to to steepen. But if you look at the trend since 08 09, the trend has been down towards a flatter and flatter yield curve, uh we didn't get back into the 200 to 300 basis point range as uh as the as the Fed was flooding the economy with money.
We didn't uh what was this pointing to? And we think there's an underlying deflationary narrative built in building into the the yield curve. We'll see if we get above the 150 with this easing cycle and and and we should know by the end of the year. If we don't, what that would tell us is that this deflationary uh narrative, keep using the word narrative, uh that uh that that we have um it it will raise the probability that that is correct and that is the long bond picking up on that and not uh increasing uh as much out of fear of inflation as the Fed eases.
is. So stay tuned on this one. Should be very interesting. Inflation. Okay, lots of fear about it. This is true inflation, the true inflation CPI. And as of this morning, again, this is a real time measure and it's tens of thousands of uh goods and services in real time constantly. Uh today we're at 1.9%.
And that's with tariffs getting in to into the inflation rate. Uh they're certainly reflected in here and um I think everybody's expecting a big burst of inflation on on PCs. Uh and uh what we're seeing it suggests that we are today where we were um with uh the internet in 1995. And 1995 through 1999 was the biggest burst in uh in the in the growth sector of the market in history.
It went in, it went too far. Too much capital, chasing too few opportunities too soon. Uh, and so it ended badly. Uh, but we're just at the beginning of this and, uh, we're pretty excited about it and, uh, uh, we think that it that this is much more on the consumer side in the enterprise. So, you've heard about the MIT study that the Wall Street Journal featured saying no productivity gains from AI.
Very hard to see. And uh I was on a panel with two people who uh are very senior, one heading up uh US commercial uh and uh we asked this question and uh she said well it is true what happens with Palunteer is they'll go in because the CEO has asked them to come in and they bring the CTO CEO all the seniors into the conversation CTO takes it back and says okay well we need to do a McKenzie study around this so they pull the pilot from Palunteer and then one to two years later when there are no productivity gains uh they come back to Palunteer with a completely restructured technology a staff uh mostly because there has been so much foot dragging and uh they then engage and the productivity gains that Palunteer is helping enterprises uh uh evolve and enjoy are astounding astounding.
Uh so just listen to one of their quarterly calls to to give you a sense of how astound astounding they are. Uh and so we think the productivity cycle is going to be very a mixed picture emerges from the jobs report. Job growth is rapidly slowing down with revisions even pushing some months into negative territory while unemployment remains stable at 4.3%.
Work weeks are getting shorter. High-value industries like technology and finance are experiencing disruption but manufacturing is still struggling. This would be a warning sign for many. However, Cathy has a different view of it. She observes indications of structural change, blockchain eliminating inefficiencies, automation and AI altering labor and government layoffs decreasing money.
Although these changes are unpleasant. They indicate increased productivity over the long run. The same reasoning applies to her market view. The rate of inflation has decreased. Spreads in the high yield market indicate that there is little short-term danger and treasury yields are stabilizing. However, excesses in commercial real estate and bonds also suggest weaknesses.
Kathy returns to creativity as the primary motivator. Though she highlights both the potential and the danger by drawing a link between the internet's meteoric rise in the late 1990s and the adoption of blockchain and AI today. Capital flowed too quickly in those days. The foundation is stronger, the technologies are more varied, and the potential impact is much higher today.
This study is very optimistic for cryptocurrency investors. As Kathy points out, Bitcoin is still rising over the long run in comparison to gold, indicating that it is resilient despite volatility. Digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, stand to gain from institutional adoption as well as their function as hedges in a fast-changing economy if hurt growth and innovation forecasts come to pass.
Put another way, the AI and blockchain era may solidify cryptocurrency's position as a pillar of international markets. Just like the internet boom of the 1990s created trillion dollar businesses, we are not reaching the conclusion of a cycle. If Kathy Wood is correct, we're just getting started. Even the most optimistic analysts may be taken aback over the next five years as new technologies transform wealth generation and creativity propels growth.
What are your thoughts? Are the markets truly in a 1995 moment right now? Tell us in the comments section. Additionally, remember to like, subscribe, and share this video with other cryptocurrency and innovation enthusiasts. Thank you for viewing.
댓글 0