저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 전기차 시장 성장과 비트코인의 기관 편입을 근거로 장기 강세 견해를 유지하며, 구체적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 하지 않았다. 전기차 시장: 2020년 약 220만 대 규모 판매가 2025년 230~240만 대로 성장할 것으로 전망. 자본시장이 내연기관에서 전기차로의 전환을 자금 조달할 것이라 확신. 테슬라: 미국에서 여전히 선두이며 중국에서도 이제 1위 브랜드라고 언급. 긍정적 견해 유지. 중국 업체: 중국 소형 전기차 업체 중 일부는 실제 전기차가 아니라고 언급. 바이두(Baidu)를 중국 종목 중 가장 높은 확신 종목으로 꼽음. 자율주행 플랫폼으로 정부가 지정했다는 점을 근거로 제시. 오토X(AutoX)가 캘리포니아로부터 완전 자율주행 승인을 받은 점을 주목할 만한 종목으로 언급. 기타 중국 종목: 뉴(NIO, 배터리 교환), 샤오펑(XPeng), BYD, 지리(Geely) 등 중국 전기차 업체를 언급하며 일부는 보유, 일부는 미보유라고 밝힘. 비트코인: 현재 가격이 2021년 고점을 이미 찍었다는 시각에 동의하지 않음. 구글 검색 트렌드 기준으로 투기적 활동이 적다고 판단. 비트코인은 다른 자산군 대비 상관관계가 가장 낮아 분산투자 효과가 크다고 주장. 기관 투자자의 편입이 본격화될 것으로 예상. 기관 동향: 마이크로스트래티지가 현금을 비트코인에 투입하고 추가 유상증자까지 한 점, 스퀘어의 자산 1% 비트코인 편입, 매사추세츠뮤추얼의 1억 달러 투자 등을 언급. 규제 당국의 대응 가능성은 리스크로 지적. 인프라: 피델리티 커스터디, ICE, CME 비트코인 선물 상장 등 기관 인프라 진전 언급. 리스크: 규제 당국 개입 가능성. 중국 거래소 폐쇄 이후 활동이 일본·태국·한국 등으로 이동했다고 설명. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비트코인과 전기차 관련 성장에 낙관적이며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
let's talk about your big call on tesla you've been proven right there for your big ideas for 2021 you write about you've got number seven electric vehicles and number nine autonomous ride hailing so we've had uh news this week from faraday future going public in a spec we've got gm's announcement to go all electric by 2035.
what's your outlook for ev and could you imagine arc investing heavily in names other than tesla giving some of these this news that we have coming out well we're looking because if we're right this uh market is going to go from 2.2 million uh sales that's units uh in 2020 it might be 2.3 to 40 million in 2025.
so all of these announcements have increased our confidence that the capital markets are going to finance this transition from internal combustion engine to electric that's great uh who is going to be leading the charge so to speak uh we still think it is tesla certainly in the united states even in china tesla is the number one brand now the smaller vehicles in china there is a company um i've forgotten its name it might be associated with saic uh and gm by the way that is pulling ahead uh but it's that's not a counted as a true electric vehicle these are the ones that go 25 miles an hour golf cart types of things so we think that uh china might hold uh the secret as to the next big winners uh we know that neo we do not own neo it's a battery swapping company so instead of charging they swap batteries um that that is uh going to to win win the day uh we think that x-pung which we do not own but which is emulating tesla might we're seeing uh and we do own in our more specialized strategies byd was a a battery manufacturer to begin with and warren buffett owns has owned for many years uh a piece of byd that has done very well we owned that uh and then uh geely which bought volvo and and um i believe the chairman of gili owns a position in daimler uh it is also doing a lot of interesting things in terms of partnering uh with various companies uh including baidu so if i if i had to give you which of the chinese names we have the highest conviction in uh it's probably baidu and that had been a hard sell for me because their search business was falling apart and it did seem to me with more than 150 or 200 electric vehicle manufacturers many being government subsidized that there would be a blood blood bath and and baidu's uh the government has deemed it the autonomous platform for china uh we weren't sure whether to believe that or not or if it would get caught up in the carnage but it does seem to be doing something uh very interesting and there's also another company called auto x this is more um this is they're working with dongfeng in which is mostly involved in the trucking space but we did take note that auto x got has gotten approval from california to go uh fully autonomous there i didn't know that until very recently so that could be another one to watch i want to talk about crypto uh we've got number six and seven bitcoins fundamentals and bitcoin preparing for institutions so you know you've got a lot of fans in the crypto space i want to know what you think here and of course bitcoin some people think look it's already hit its highs for 2021 the the high water mark of above 40 000.
what's arcs thinking here uh we do not agree with that uh and what's been interesting this time around is to if you look at google search trends for bitcoin or bitcoin's price uh against the bitcoin price itself um you'll find that there's not a lot of speculative activity by that measure in fact in 2017 they were one for one together but it has been pretty quiet until maybe very recently but throughout last year uh and so that gave us a lot of comfort we believe that the institutional behavior and moves recently have been fascinating we have been expecting institutions to start moving into bitcoin and other crypto assets but primarily uh bitcoin the most secure of the blockchains um because uh because it if you look at the correlation of bitcoin's performance relative to any other asset class it is it has the lowest correlation meaning if you buy some bitcoin you will further diversify your portfolio and increase your returns with lower risk right so that's why institutions look for that low correlation bitcoin has it and uh so that's clear we have 10 years of history now but what surprised me and us generally was to watch microstrategy which has put all of its all the cash on its balance sheet into bitcoin and even did another equity offering so it could put more cash on its belgium and i i think that's a little crazy because i i think the regulators will have something to say about this in terms of what is this is this company the microstrategy technology company or is it like an etf so we don't know about that but then you saw square put one percent of all of its assets in bitcoin and i think you're going to see more of that we didn't expect that what we did expect was because of the low correlation of returns uh institutional investors to move in the most surprising one to me thus far has been mass mutual it put a hundred million dollars into its general account now its general account is enormous so 100 million dollars is something like point zero zero one but what what that move told us is you know mass mutual's very conservative and very highly regulated and so it had to jump through many more regulatory hurdles than i thought would have been possible by now so i think that is a seal of approval and then of course you have the institutional infrastructure moving into into place whether it's with custody and everyone knows a lot about fidelity being out there in terms of uh wanting to custody bitcoin in particular uh you have the intercontinental exchange uh and uh and you've got the cme now with bitcoin futures uh one settling in uh kind one settling in cash uh and so uh we do believe that uh bitcoin is getting ready for institutional but when we when we actually think about this uh is bitcoin ready for institutions bitcoin is only it's roughly a 600 billion dollar market cap so not even half the size of apple or amazon right doesn't put it into perspective and yet it is a very big idea i think a much bigger idea than uh apple or amazon it's the first global truly global digital currency out there and it it is completely decentralized there's no throat to choke so unlike with libra you know you had europe and the us and many countries saying we'll never allow this uh that's because there was one throat to joke with with bitcoin there's no throat to choke and in fact when when uh china uh basically shut down the exchanges in china that uh uh dealt in crypto especially bitcoin that activity just moved over to japan thailand and korea other countries that wanted they wanted to move ahead in this innovation space they did not want to miss this next big thing you
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