저자: DarcyMacDonald · 외국인
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PSTH(Pershing Square Tontine Holdings)는 빌 애크먼이 만든 대형 SPAC으로, 발표된 인수 대상이 아직 없어 투기적 기대가 큰 상태다. SPAC 구조 설명: 신탁에 보관된 현금 덕분에 하방이 제한되고, 인수 발표 전에도 상장 주식으로 매매 가능하다. 규모와 가격: 발행가 20달러 대비 주가 약 25달러(프리미엄 약 5달러), 시가총액 50억 달러 이상. 애크먼 펀드는 인수 확정 시 추가 자본 투입 옵션이 있어 총 70억 달러까지 확대 가능하다. 인수 대상 추측: 애크먼은 시가총액 100~150억 달러의 '성숙한 유니콘' 기업을 목표로 한다고 언급했다. 발언자는 DJI, Grab을 개인적으로 유력하게 보며, Robinhood, ByteDance, SpaceX는 가능성을 낮게 봤다. 상승 요인: 인수 발표 시 대형 SPAC이라는 관심으로 주가 급등이 예상되며, 발언자는 이를 노린 단기 매매와 장기 보유 모두 유효하다고 봤다. 애크먼의 버거킹 성공 사례(약 140억 달러 수익 루머)를 근거로 든다. 리스크: 애크먼의 발리언트 파마슈티컬스, 허벌라이프 투자 실패 사례, 적합한 대상 기업을 찾지 못해 청산될 가능성, SPAC 열풍이 꺼질 가능성. 청산 시 원금 근처 회수는 가능하다. 발언자 포지션: 1월 22.5달러 풋옵션 매도로 진입했으며, 인수 발표 또는 행사 시까지 롤오버할 계획이라고 밝혔다. 결론: 상방이 하방보다 훨씬 크다고 판단하며 강한 긍정적 견해를 보였다.
다듬은 글
welcome guys to another video we're going to talk about psth that is the ticker symbol for pershing square taunting holdings that's a mouthful but it is bill ackman's new special purpose acquisition company not that new actually it's been around for a little while but i want to dig into the specifics of it i want to tell you the upside i want to talk downside i want to talk potential targets we're going to go over the whole thing and tell you all about this so first a quick rundown on what an s-pac is for those that don't know s-pak is special purpose acquisition company and it's kind of a new way of doing an ipo basically a bunch of investors will get together put together this enormous pile of money they will do an ipo but it's basically a shell company it does nothing it owns nothing its only purpose in life is to go out and actually find a private company to acquire in what's called a reverse merger so then when they do find that target company they buy it up either all of the shares are a large portion of the shares and basically that transaction sort of pulls that private company into the public company the ticker symbol changes and boom you have a new public company so the fantastic thing about this is that you can actually invest in the shell company because it's traded publicly long before it actually acquires a target which is a really cool opportunity to get in before you actually know what the business is going to be and sometimes you can get a fantastic bargain and at the end of the day your downside is limited because if the shell company can't find a deal within a given time frame they will actually just liquidate and all of the cash that the investors put up front initially is distributed to the shareholders so the most you can lose is the difference between the ipo price and the price that you paid and typically these trade at a bit of a premium to the initial ipo price right now as i record this video uh pershing is trading at around twenty five dollars a share versus the initial ipo price of twenty dollars so you can buy it today for that five dollar premium so i wanna do this video specifically about pershing square because it is now the largest s-pac in existence and they have yet to announce a deal so i think this presents a really really unique opportunity for those two reasons and when i say big i mean really big this thing was formed with a mountain of four billion dollars from ackman and a bunch of his hedge fund buddies uh they poured all that money into this thing they went public and now that the share price has risen to 25 the market cap on this thing is over five billion dollars not only that but ackman's fund actually has the option to inject additional capital into this thing if they find a deal and that could take the total pile to 7 billion now the speculation on this one is all about what is the target company because that's the risk that you take if you buy this thing today you're basically making a bet on akman's ability to find a good target without knowing what it is so there's a ton of speculation about there so there's a ton of speculation out there about what he could possibly buy now he's made a few statements that give us some hints he's talked a lot about buying a mature unicorn a unicorn is a private company that has hit a massive amount in terms of a market capitalization and there are actually lists out there that we can look at of uh unicorn companies that are currently available for this type of purchase and he's given a few other hints about the fact that he wants the company to be employee or family owned um and you know we can draw some other hints in terms of the the spaces that ackman has played in in the past and some of the previous deals he's done so this has fueled a lot of that speculation in terms of what the deal might actually be now ackman has said his target range is between 10 to 15 billion dollars in terms of the capitalization for this mature unicorn target that he's after now if we look at this particular list here that would narrow it down to about this range between this 10 and 15 billion dollar number looking at this range right here there's two that i like personally i i love dji and grab just because i think they're both awesome i'm not too familiar with the rest of these companies so you know what i'm going to go ahead and throw my guess in here with everybody else and i'm going to put my hopes on these two who knows if that'll actually happen i certainly don't oh also in this list you see robin hood here this has gotten a lot of speculation i think uh it is a possibility uh you know robinhood has gotten a lot of negative press lately maybe that's going to depress the valuation enough that ackman feels he could swoop in and do a deal who knows could absolutely happen there's been a lot of other names floated that i think are way less likely you hear a lot of rumors about bite dance the company that owns tick tock you hear about spacex those sound silly to me because i think they're outside of his target range the other reason i think ackman wouldn't go for something quite like that is that i believe he's looking for a solid business that he can actually take forward i don't think he's looking for that initial pop and then a liquidation event to make money i think he seriously wants to acquire a business with really solid long-term prospects and avoid the hype premium that might get attached to some of these other names so my bet is that he's going to come up with something just a little bit more conservative than most people are expecting what's the upside potential okay so both case there's actually tons of points here and this is actually why i'm kind of excited on this one i'm actually really bullish myself right out of the gate i love the fact that the downside is limited on this one literally your investment is secured by a pile of cash that's held in trust by the s-pac so they have that four billion dollars sitting in trust uh basically that reflects the ipo price of twenty dollars if you buy it at five dollars basically what you're doing is you are putting uh 20 off your investment in cash and you're only really risking that five dollars which is the premium over the net asset value because if that liquidation event happens you would get your 20 back per share that you've actually bought it's not going to be exactly that there's going to be adjustments for interest and all this kind of thing but at the end of the day a large portion of your investment has a serious floor underneath it it's really hard to get that kind of insurance on any investment these days which is one reason why i really like this one and then you have to consider ackman and some of the other investors that he has in this thing these guys are serious investors they're not some smaller group of very volatile hedge fund investors these are serious guys that have a lot of money they make a lot of money and their reputation and their money is on the line on this particular deal so i think they are absolutely serious about getting a deal done ackman in particular has a reputation as a money maker he's the guy that bought burger king public back in 2012 through qsr the formation of that company we don't know exactly what he made on that deal but there's rumors floating around that that he and his investors made about 14 billion dollars on that one highly successful can he pull off something like this again absolutely he could another thing i like about this is that there's actually two ways that uh you or i could actually profit on this one is we could buy these shares now and when there's this pop on the news when akman actually announces a deal it's going to get a ton of attention this is the largest s-pak in existence so when he makes any deal announcement doesn't even matter what it is this thing is going to pop just on the height premium that will be attached to that news event it's going to pull in a ton of additional investors and if you hold this stock before that happens there's i think an enormous opportunity to profit from the inevitable pop that's going to happen if that's how you want to play this one it's a totally valid way to go about it of course the other way you can make money is when that deal is announced if you really really like the company and if this is something that you're as excited about as those hedge fund investors then you can stay in you can continue to hold those shares and bank on the fact that this is going to be a highly successful business go forward and then you are going to be one of these very early stage investors so if you're a long term buying whole sort of person it's a fantastic play if you're a short-term trader sort of person also a good player now remember i said that big pile of cash this is a key factor in their advantage they are actually now have the money to go out there into that private market and actually find a business that is further along the path to maturity that has already grown up a little bit this is where akman talks about a mature unicorn and i think that is going to allow them to do a deal and snap up a business that is really really solid and has some really good prospects go forward versus the smaller less well capitalized aspects are looking at uh you know a broader pool but those companies are higher risk right their earlier stage they haven't yet reached those market capitalization events and they might actually be hungrier for cash ackman actually has the cash to feed a deal where the people that hold that private company aren't exactly desperate and so they're going to actually demand more money because they are a premium company ackman can pay that price and i think he can actually snap up something that's a lot higher quality and has better prospects go forward let's talk about risk there's not a lot of downsides in this one but there are a few uh i mentioned that ackman has been highly successful there have also been cases where ackman has been highly unsuccessful i don't know if anybody remembers valiant pharmaceuticals uh they were a canadian company that was an absolute and complete disaster uh ackman ended up wearing that one and it did not look good on him at all um a similar story with his enormous short position and his activist investor campaign against herbalife that one ended in disaster and ackman lost a lot of money on both of these deals so i think you know there's a lot of hype around how fantastic he is i believe he's really good but you have to remember he's had his failures as well like any investment uh has and so you know there is a possibility that this one could go the route of valiant or herbalife as well another risk is that he could simply fail to find a deal you know because he is targeting these mature companies there's a smaller pool of opportunity for him because he wants to take this big a position there's also a slightly smaller opportunity so you know given the hype that's happening right now in terms of the ability to fund these companies a lot of his target companies may be able to get the capital they need either through a direct ipo on their own or through additional rounds of venture financing and they might not need ackman's money so there is a risk that he's not going to be able to get anything done in that case you're looking at a liquidation event where you actually get your money back not too terrible all things considered and the last one i can think of really is that s-pac mania is at an all-time high there's a ton of attention and interest here that is driving up the prices of these shell companies both before they announce a deal and afterwards uh you know inevitably these hype things are at risk of popping the bubble if that happens then i think the interest in s-pacs could fade away both from an investor standpoint and from the standpoint of these private companies that see it as a good way to go public if that happens i think ackman's chances of doing a deal would evaporate and i think you'd be looking at that liquidation event again that said i'm not thinking that there's really any reason why this is in fact a bubble i actually don't see why it would pop even if it were i think it's a fantastic way for a lot of these companies to go public it's another option and i think options are great i don't necessarily see it fading away anytime at all so what's the last word on this one look to my mind it has to be the fact that there is way more upside on this one than any amount of downside i think it's kind of a no-brainer i've actually bought in myself by selling puts it's one of the ways i like to play these things that uh potentially have a height premium attached to them i've actually sold the january 22 and a half puts on this one i'm going to keep rolling that forever until a deal is announced or until i get assigned which would be fine with me i would absolutely love to own this thing at 22 and a half and then recognize that inevitable pop so guys i hope this helps please throw the video a like if you liked it hit that subscribe button so you can see some more don't forget to ring the bell and i'll see you on the next one you
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