원문 보기
and the answer is i'm right and they're wrong the idea of diversification makes sense to a point if you don't know what you're doing and you want the standard result and not be embarrassed well of course you can widely diversify nobody's entitled a lot of money for recognizing that because it's a truism it's like knowing that two and two equals four but the investment professionals think they're helping you by arranging a derivative diversification an idiot can diversify a portfolio or a computer for that matter but the whole trick of the game is to have a few times when you know that something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge and then if you get just a few opportunities that's enough and what the hell do you care you own three securities and jp morgan chase owns a hundred what's wrong with owning a few securities warren always says if you lived in a growing town and you owned stock and three of the best enterprises in the town isn't that diversified enough the answer is of course it is they're all wonderful places and that fortunes formula which got so famous which was a formula to tell people how much to bet on each transaction if you had an edge and of course the bigger your edge the more close the transaction was to a certain winner the more you should bet and of course there's mathematics behind it but of course it's true it's perfectly possible to buy by only one thing because the opportunity is so great and such a sanch are only two or three so the whole idea of looking for excellence is totally ridiculous it doesn't work it gives you an impossible task what fun is it to do an impossible task over and over again i find it agony i just who would want to do it and i don't see why my father had a client he was a lawyer in omaha he had a client whose husband had a little soap and the guy died and my father sold the soap company this woman was one of the richest people in town in the middle of depression what she had was a little soap company in a vegas mansion and a husband's neighborhood and they sold his own company she had a mansion in the best neighborhood and 300 000 but 300 000 in 1930 something was an incredible amount of money a little hamburger was an echo a big hamburger was a dime and the all-you-can-eat cafe and i'm almost would feed you all you needed to stay alive for two bits a day i mean three hundred thousand well she didn't hire an investment counselor she didn't do it she's a wonderful old woman and she just took that and she divided into five chunks and she bought five stocks i remember three of them because i probated her estate and it was almost general electric one was dow one was dupont i forgot the other two and she never changed those stocks she never paid any advisor she never did anything and she bought some medicinal bonds she never spent her income and she bought some missile bonds from time to time by the time she died in the 50s she had a half dollars no costs no expenses i said how did you decide to do that and she said well she said about electricity and chemistry with the coming things you just chunked it all in and sat on her ass i always liked that little wall my kind of a girl and but it's rare you know but you stop to think about think of all the expense and palabra that she didn't have to listen to and all the trouble she avoided zero costs and of course what people don't realize because they're so mathematically illiterate is if you make five percent and pay two of it to your advisors you're not losing forty percent of your future you're losing ninety percent because over a long period of time that little difference because ninety 90 disadvantage to you so it's hugely important for somebody who's a long-term holder not to be paying a big annual toll out of the performance and of course there are a few big-time advisors now are using indexation very heavily and of course they're prospering mightily and of course every time they get somebody it's just agony for the rest of the investment counseling that and it's a very serious problem and i think these people were used to winning as old-time value investors who are now just quitting the profession that's a very understandable thing to do i i regard it as more noble than staying in play along with the denial it's an interesting problem now you can see i'm trying not trying to make your morning i'm just trying to describe things the way they are
Comments 0