원문 보기
Hello everyone, it's me, the voice of Wall Street. Endless possibilities here on the New York Stock Exchange Square. We're about two- thirds through July, and the market is just boiling. We have a 50/50 rise versus fall, regardless of whether we are up 300 or down. So it's a mix of some rotation. We're kind of in the corridor between the reports of banks and technology companies, and we're trying to understand, because we're back in those days when, you know, threats of war and intervention in the conflict in the Middle East are relevant again.
The president is stirring things up again, and after a technical sell-off where oil prices fell to 67.39 —something we haven't seen since the pre-war lows—we've bounced back to 90, and that has huge implications for the market. So when you see oil going up, markets going down, oil going down—the market is going up.
And that to some extent, you know, causes a lot of chaos in the market in general. But who better than Einstein and Ives, especially Ives , right? Yorkville and Ives. This is a new generation, a new revolution that we are witnessing. Help me figure it out. My mistake. Boom. Tell me. What is happening?
No, I think, look, these are, uh, actually, these are going to be tech sector reports, right? This will be exactly that. Okay, we can talk about oil, 10-year bonds, what we see in cryptocurrency, right? It all comes down to what the tech sector reports confirm, the truth is, the history of monetization, yes, what the market is built on.
And I just think, a lot of times the reaction to reports is momentum. Yes. Yes. Are the shares expressed in numbers? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. It is very important to understand, for example, the growth of Google's cloud. Yes. The growth of the cloud from Microsoft, the growth of the cloud, what does the demand for chips look like, right?
Because I don't care if stocks go up or down. No, no, no, no. We have a very strange market. This is irrational enthusiasm, and this is an unforgiving market. The thing is, you go back to Apple, like at WWDC when they announced their AI strategy, the stock went to 290, yeah, and now it's like 325. So I'm saying that the initial reactions, I do n't always, you know, we're with you over time, we know.
I just think it comes down to the fact that chip demand is accelerating, though, capital spending is stable, that continues. well, no, it will continue to accelerate, grow, accelerate now investors will say I want to see maybe a slowdown in capital spending yes but these because it affects their free cash flow.
Yes. Yes. Whose capital expenditure do you mean ? Microsoft. Yes. So these companies that weren't necessarily AI stocks, right? But they were visionaries who invested 600 billion in the development of data centers. These are the shareholders whose stocks are n't doing very, well, well . They are impatient.
So you're saying they think capital spending needs to slow down. But the reality is, if you slow down capital spending, yes, it's going to be like the Las Vegas Strip in 1955. That's right. Yes. Yes. Yes . You get a place on the Strip, right? There are no other places. I mean, you can be, you know, 3 miles from the Strip, it doesn't matter.
These tech companies know, build a moat, right? If you don't build it, others will. They will come. That's right. And you're in this, this gap between capex and monetization and now it's showing monetization, which I think will span software, cybersecurity, other tech names like Caterpillar, I mean, just think about the domino effect, this is what we were talking about: when you talk about building data centers, everything that happens in that ecosystem is what's going to drive the economy.
Right. Yes. We talked about it a lot . One question for you, and I love this, and we'll get to it in a second, but when did it happen, when they took "Mag 7" and the technology sector and broke it down into memory, software, and chips? It has broken up into one large sector more idiosyncratic than just you know what I mean ?
We suddenly moved into memory, then chips, then quantum technologies , and within the big tech sector we now have five or six little branches, like: chips, software, memory , uh, what else? I mean chips, memory, data centers, I mean, look, each one of them is almost idiosyncratic, like, for example, if you look at Meta, so Meta is not a traditional hyperscaler, right , not at all, but Meta is obviously spending, you know, hundreds of billions on capital expenditures, right?
It's like, okay, they're going to monetize their installed base, right? Microsoft is in a different situation than Alphabet, which is different than Amazon, which is different than Nvidia, right? I think when it comes to memory and the spending that we're seeing in Korea, investors are trying to sort through and understand who sees the real source of demand, right?
That's right. Memory, you can count the players in the memory market on the fingers of one hand, of course it's Micron, right? So, you know, Nvidia has significantly fallen in valuation compared to them. Yes. Yes. So the market almost doesn't look at it as a group , it looks at it individually. Right.
So, my perception of this is real. And what, what, what, what was the catalyst for this? Because Alphabet is spending capital , but you see monetization, right? Meta is spending capital , but you don't see monetization. Divide. OK. I also think Microsoft is very attached to the story with OpenAI, right?
There is a distinction between Anthropic and OpenAI that I think is almost unique to the market. Some visionaries, Microsoft, Oracle, Google, Meta, they are not traditional AI players, but they have allocated huge funds because they are visionaries, but in fact they are the ones who created the AI revolution .
Explain this. Because all of this spending is driving Nvidia, right? OpenAI, Anthropic —it's all from Microsoft, Google , yeah, so the reality is that they're the epicenter of this. So the non-AI guys are traditional, so our perception is that Nvidia is AI, but it's not , it's just one of the leading ones.
But Nvidia is the only chip in the world that's powering the AI revolution, right? You have models: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Ultimate Gemini. Hyperscalers. What is a hyperscaler? Explain. Cloud providers. They essentially build data centers by investing capital expenditures: software, chip companies, memory.
All of this adds up to what will be a trillion dollars of capital investment being made. So they're all together, but for some reason, due to shareholder demands or something else , they split up. They do not split, but they exist as sectors within a larger sector. Of course, because, in fact, it's the hyperscalers who spend the money, right?
Funding, ultimately, the purchase of Nvidia, which then buys memory, Micron, SK, right? Memory manufacturers' stocks have gone parabolic, haven't they? But those who ultimately finance all the construction of data centers have actually ended up in a “ penalty zone.” That 's right, exactly, that's all, and these are hyperscalers.
This, this is Microsoft. It looks like hyperscalers are funding an AI party, right? And everyone on the dance floor. The thing is, their shareholders, you know? They don't see monetization. They don't see the immediate benefit, although they understand, they understand what it will bring. the company does.
But maybe shareholders are impatient because they see free cash flow, right? That's it , right? Shareholders see debts, which are usually minimal, right? Because you need to raise debt or equity capital to get financing or something else. That's why patience runs out. Reporting season is so important, right?
To show that you've moved from capital expenditure to monetization, right? Of course. Well, it's complicated, but look, it's complicated. It all resembles a puzzle. Yes. in the process of development. And as an investor, you need to be able to make sense of everything without getting stuck on certain narratives.
So you really need to play the long game, like you said, right? You are looking at the long term . You see, the data center could be ready in five years, right? we don't wait 5 years for all the different parts to work . I mean, this is a long-term game. You are investing in something that may be completed in 5 years, but along the way you will see how it will affect the economy as a whole.
And for every dollar spent on an Nvidia chip , yes, there is an $8-10 multiplier for the rest of the tech sector. Oh yes, exactly. So after all, for example, Lockheed Martin, a defense company, right? can indirectly benefit from AI because of the technology they use in drones, right? Yes. Yes. Oh, wow.
Yes. But it all starts like this. Yes. It starts right here. OK. I understand. Wow . Yes. Wow. Only you could. As if only you could put it on the shelves. But that's the best way I can explain it. Yes. I finally explained it clearly. Maybe I look like Einstein. I'm not that smart. No, but it's almost like this is why it always is, sorry.
It's like the third inning, right? Because there are times when the market can get stuck on narratives, stagnation, whatever, but it's important to understand where you're looking to see around the corner, because it's not just about building data centers and chips. We've already talked about this. These are secondary and tertiary funding, which will be use cases.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. physical AI, autonomy, robots, eventually space, right? And that's exactly how you should think about it. This takes us back to Vegas in 1955. If I told you what was in store for us with Sinatra, Sam and Dave, and then eventually, that the Sphere would be here in 30 years. It's like being in the third year of an 8-10- year development phase.
Wow, that's impressive. This is so exciting. This is so interesting. I like it. Tell me about yourself and York Fanheims. Yeah, look, I'm just thrilled, as you and I discussed, that we're breaking new ground in modern commercial banking, you know, I think a huge part that's missing on Wall Street is that it's very focused on that.
A real commercial bank, an investment bank, but one that can, ultimately, risk its own money and invest its own capital in technology, energy, and infrastructure. And the reality is that without the AI revolution, we would n't be doing this. Yes. Yes. Yes. We are at such a pivotal moment right now.
I'm just thrilled that we're launching this. Great partners. And look, this, I mean, you talk about it, this is just the most exciting time to be alive. This is a real innovation boom that is happening now. And if we weren't where we are now in the market, and you weren't the person who grew up in this tech sector and knows what you know, you wouldn't have made this move, you would still be at Wedbush.
No, but the thing is, 5 years ago this wasn't in the plans. There was no idea that you would wear a pink sweatshirt with Einstein and a visa. So no. So I, I just, but I'm saying that it's all part of where we've ended up. We didn't plan this . But no, it's due to the technological boom that's happening.
Surprisingly. You know, ladies and gentlemen, this is the most perfect analysis. I mean , look, my hair might even grow back after this conversation. This is amazing. You may have to watch this two or three times before you understand. All these guys are waiting to see how the two best-dressed men on Wall Street will sort out what's happening in the AI revolution.
The third inning of a nine-inning game that goes into extra innings, right? Where are the Bears? They sit there, eat chips and think they're still in their damn cave. They have no idea what's going on. Waiting for the big day of fall. This will not happen. Yes. You are the best. I love you. OK. Yorkville and Knives, Einstein and Knives, we're going to the moon. Alice. Boom. That's all I can say about it.
댓글 0