저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 연준의 회사채·정크본드 ETF 매입은 시장 가격을 왜곡해 비효율 기업을 살리고 불평등을 키우며, 결국 통화 가치 하락으로 이어진다는 주장이다. [연준 채권 매입의 구조] 블룸버그 화면상 연준 뉴욕지점이 JNK 등 정크본드 ETF의 상위 보유자로 나타났다는 점을 언급했다. 연준이 신용도를 따지지 않고 과도한 가격으로 채권을 사들여 기업 자금조달 비용을 시장 수준보다 낮춘다고 주장했다. [주택버블과의 유사성] 2008년 이전 패니메이·프레디맥이 서브프라임 대출 시장을 만들어준 구조와 비슷하다고 비유했다. 대출기관이 연준에 떠넘길 수 있다는 기대로 공급을 늘린다는 논리다. [불평등 확대 메커니즘] 연준 개입은 생산성 저하를 낳고, 본래 저소득층에 돌아갈 성장 과실을 줄인다고 주장했다. 자원을 좀비기업에 배분하면 건전한 중소기업이 시장 점유율을 잃고 파산한다는 설명이다. 버크셔해서웨이 등 현금이 충분한 대기업도 수혜 대상으로 언급됐다. [자금 배분의 규모와 형평성] 연준이 찍어낸 수조 달러가 대기업·채권·사모펀드에 몰린 반면 개인에게는 1,200달러 수준의 지원만 돌아갔다고 비판했다. [정부 개입 일반론] 정부는 자체 자원이 없어 결국 민간에서 빼앗아 쓰는 구조이며, 누구의 필요가 더 중요한지 정부가 정하는 것은 부당하다고 주장했다. 의회 청문회에서 임대료·주택담보대출 어려움을 거론하는 것을 두고, 이는 정부가 해결할 문제가 아니라고 반박했다. [가계 부채와 저축] 저금리와 과도한 신용 확대로 사람들이 저축 대신 차입에 나섰고, 이것이 생활고의 원인이라고 설명했다. [결론] 정부 부채는 약 27조 달러이며 정부가 빌릴 곳이 없어 돈을 찍어내고 있다고 지적했다. 결국 화폐 가치가 파괴될 것이라고 경고했다. [투자 관련 발언] 종목별 가격 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았다. 다만 통화 가치 하락에 대한 우려가 전반적 메시지다.
다듬은 글
Zero Hedge posted yesterday a screenshot of the Bloomberg terminal looking at a couple of the bond ETFs that the Fed is in one of which is jnk which of course stands for junk because it is replete with junk bonds and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is now showing up as like a top five holder on many of these bond ETFs and I noted yesterday that some of these bond backstops are going to companies like Berkshire Hathaway you know - who has 43 billion dollars in cash and is a 465 billion dollar company and Warren Buffett's worth over 60 billion and I wanted to see if you wanted to comment on that and maybe explain to some of my listeners how this type of policy widens the inequality gap you know Paul Krugman rails against inequality constantly without realizing that it's his policies that are widening the inequality gap yeah well anything that the Federal Reserve does that makes the economy less productive is going to you know widen that gap because the economic growth that otherwise would take place absent the Fed intervention would disproportionately benefit you know people at the lower end of the spectrum by providing them with you know a higher living standard with more goods to buy and more and more employment opportunities but you know if you look at what the Fed is doing right the state the same thing was going on during the housing bubble when you had Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that were not allowed to issue junk bonds directly going into the secondary market and buying the junk bonds that other companies were issuing they were really kind of creating a market for junk I mean for subprime mortgages rather so they couldn't issue subprime mortgages because I had certain lending standards which were still 2 lakhs but then they were buying the subprime mortgages that these other lenders were originating and they were kind of creating a market and because they created a market then the the lenders were creating the supply because they knew they can unload it on the Fed and that's what's happening right now on Fannie and Freddie but that's what's happening now you know how bond companies knowing that they can borrow money from the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve is buying these bonds so that basically means that the Federal Reserve is just directly lending this money to these institutions and the Fed is obviously you know indiscriminately buying these things it is not you know basing its decision on the viability of the loans they're not charging a rate of interest commensurate with the risk of the loan so they are overpaying for all these bonds and so they are lowering the cost of credit for all of these companies to a level that's much lower than what the market would price it but at whose expense you have to remember that the government doesn't create anything the Federal Reserve doesn't create anything when it creates money or redirects credit all it can do is kind of you know rearrange the deckchairs right so if money is is or credit is being directed towards certain companies then it must have been directed away from other companies and so but and when the when the government is trying to micromanage in the allocation of credit as opposed to a free market right where the free market is going to allocate credit to its highest and best use it's going to go to where the credit will do the most good but when the government does it it's all based on political considerations none of it is based on what's actually good economics and so just like any centrally planned economy any socialist economy when you have you know the central planner trying to make these decisions they're never gonna be as good as the outcomes that would be derived from a free market and so that's what we have right we're moving away from a free market or further away towards more of a centrally planned economy and so that the people who the Federal Reserve decides are the winners right these corporations and junk bonds they're buying the Fed is basically picking them as a winner but then taking all the losers because they having to direct money away from them and a lot of these are smaller businesses many of these businesses could be minority-owned businesses that are basically getting screwed so that these companies that really should go bankrupt and a lot of these companies that the Federal Reserve is keeping in business if they allowed them to go Bennett to go bankrupt who would benefit well a lot of their other competitors would benefit a lot of the smaller businesses would be able to pick up that market share they might be able to buy up some of their equipment or take over some of their you know space their their real estate or they may be able to take take these resources and more effectively utilize them but they're not being given that opportunity because these zombie companies are being propped up by the Fed and now because they have this advantage they actually have an unfair competitive advantage against these other businesses who don't have the Fed subsidizing their credit in fact now they may have to compete in ways that are unfair and it may be these smaller more viable companies that end up going bankrupt because the government keeps these large or less viable ones afloat if they simply got out of the way and let the free market work then a lot of these bigger companies would fail but now a lot of these smaller companies would succeed and get even bigger and they're better managed and they're more viable and they're actually satisfying the needs of consumers in in in a cost-effective way the companies that are going to go bankrupt but for the feds help are not doing that right they're destroying value they should go out of business and by keeping them in business we are lowering our overall standard of living and people you know they can always see the benefits oh the Federal Reserve saved this company it would have gone bankrupt but for this company okay that company was saved well what companies got destroyed as a result of saving that one right no one's seen no one notices all the unseen negative consequences they just see the company that gets saved they don't see the other companies that are sacrificed in order to save the other one yeah and I think if the public understood this is something I was trying to get to yesterday I mean let's just ignore the fact for a second that printing money doesn't create productivity it doesn't create jobs we know that let's put that aside even for one second if you just look at the sheer amount of money that is being that has just been generated out of thin air right trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars if the average person understood how many trillions of dollars are being allocated towards places like Berkshire Hathaway companies that don't need it the bond market private equity we're talking about trillions and trillions of dollars while the Fed throws everybody their $1200 a bread crumb and not even everybody got that twelve hundred dollar payment because if you were a hard enough worker and you made over whatever a hundred thousand dollars a year the year prior of course you weren't entitled to free money yet the businesses and corporations that generate billions in dollars of cash and billions of dollars in net income they're the ones that receive so even if when you take the the fallacy of the money printing out of the equation still the way that the Fed has divvied the money up is egregiously disproportionate right yeah but I don't even think it matters whether the people who get the money needed or not they shouldn't get it I mean just because you need money doesn't mean the government should give it to you I mean look people need a lot of things right you know that a or and there's also a difference between what you need and what you want to I mean it a lot of that is subjective but look if you need something you can't steal it from somebody else because that's all the government can do right because the government doesn't have any of its own resources the government only has resources that it takes from private citizens right so to the extent that one company is getting money from the government because it needs it well the government has to take money away from somebody else well doesn't the person who they're taking the money away from does don't they need that money I mean why should the government decide that one person's needs are more important than somebody else's needs right they're taking the Hertz we have to get away from this idea that it's up to the government like when you look at these the hearings yesterday that I was watching and the congressmen are saying oh you know people can't pay their rent they can't pay their mortgage they can't pay to pay their utilities yeah those are problems but they're not problems for the government to solve and in fact if these politicians actually understood the role that they played in impoverishing so many Americans that so many Americans live paycheck to paycheck because so much money is taken out of their paychecks when they earn them so they don't have any money to save at another reason they don't have any savings because interest rates are so low and because the government through its policy has encouraged excess consumer credit people have been borrowing money for credit cards and auto loans and student loans and mortgages where they should have been borrowing why they should have been saving money and if people were saving money then they would be able to pay their rent during a few months where they're unemployed or even more or paid or pay their bills but the fact that the government has basically rendered everybody broke now it doesn't mean that the government can actually do anything to help people pay these bills because the government have any money the government itself is broke look at how much debt the government has the national debt is like 27 trillion dollars the government don't have any money either right the government has to borrow and it's of course nobody will lend so they just print and so what everybody wants is the Federal Reserve to print money and give it to people so they can pay their rent give it to people some pay they can pay their mortgage but ultimately what we're going to do is destroy the value of that money
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