Bill Gross: At some point, the Fed is going to have to rethink

요약 보기

채권 투자자 빌 게로스는 현재 국채 금리 하락 국면에서 10년물 금리 1.7% 수준이라도 원금 보존 측면에서 장기채는 상대적으로 안전하다고 본다. 연준이 금리 인상을 이어가기 어렵고, 결국 금리를 되돌리거나 양적완화를 재개할 가능성을 언급한다. 이에 따라 장기 국채 가격은 지지받을 수 있다는 입장이다. 은행권은 순이자마진 압박과 에너지 관련 대출 부실 우려로 타격을 받고 있으며, 수익곡선 평탄화가 은행 수익성을 악화시킨다고 설명한다. 미국 경제는 실질 성장은 유지될 수 있으나 명목성장률이 약 2.9%로 목표치 4%에 못 미쳐, 향후 6~12개월 내 명목성장 침체 가능성이 있다고 본다. 안전자산 선택으로는 5~10년 만기 국채를 가장 평범하고 안전한 선택으로 제시한다. 금은 시장 변동에 좌우되는 자산으로 보아 확신하지 않는다. 달러는 연준이 금리 인하 방향으로 돌아서면 엔화, 유로 대비 약세가 예상되므로 현재 투자 매력이 낮다고 본다. 가장 큰 리스크로 중국 경제 둔화를 지목한다.

다듬은 글

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01. what is the most respected name when it comes to bonds it's bill gross he's now a Janus Capital has been for quite some time so let's get right to it he's joining me now bill I'm glad you're here on a day where the 10-year yield is dropping so precipitously right off the bat I need to ask you is that the play that you would recommend simply to preserve capital versus get any return on capital at this point well certainly even at one point seven percent you know that's a positive return and the question becomes you know do bond prices continue to go up reflecting lower yields or do they go down reflecting higher yields I think the Fed for instance in charge of the Treasury market that basically has to stay where it is or maybe even lower interest rates or have a renewed quantitative easing program at some point so a treasury 10-year yield at one point seven percent on a long-term bond you know basically are relatively safe certainly from the standpoint of principle and I think from the standpoint of market price as well am i hearing you correctly you feel that it is possible the Fed will be put in a position where it has to take back that quarter of a point right I could put it in december yeah i think at some point it's going to be difficult for them to do that because they've been walking up the expectations for several years in terms of raising interest rates that it's obvious that on a global basis in the United States and the Fed you know is the global banker for that for the world it's obvious that an increase in interest rates has dramatic repercussions in terms of risk assets equity prices and in global bond prices and so you know I think at some point they can after we think what they fought for the past several years we've got this massive sell-off in financial so as they go into a tailspin what's at work here is it simply the belief that net interest margins there's so much pressure put on C thanks actually like when interest rates are higher for our viewers who don't know that because then they can get more money on that but doesn't look like that's happening at all yeah I think that's right you know obviously they've extended loans and we don't know how many and how much you know to energy-related commodity producers on a global basis not just here in the United States but you know European banks as well I've heard mentioned that credit suisse and deutsche banker at the relatively significant blows but the net interest margins that you mentioned a bank and an investment bank needs a very positive euchre they need to borrow short and lend long at a decently wide spread in order to make the the margins and the money that they've made historically and when they don't when the yield curve compresses and that margin doesn't exist then banks are having albums and so it grew it's it's a two-front type of war at the moment bill I hate to invoke the R word because I'm an optimistic person but are we going to go into recession here in the United States not not because things are so horrific here but because globally we have a slowdown that seems to be very tied to what we're doing here in the United States recession or not yeah yeah I think in the United States we can stay above the line on a real gross basis in this particular quarter maybe in the next quarter what's important to me and I think what should be important to central bankers is nominal growth they want not only real growth plus inflation and you know it's important in the United States to grow by at least four percent nominally that's real growth plus inflation and we've only been growing by two-point-nine percent so I think it's fair to say that you know we might have a nominal growth recession over the next six to 12 months so bill you said last week in your note you got to stick with plain vanilla if you're going to be safe let me throw these choices out to you the greenback which seems to be doing relatively well Treasuries or quality investment grade quality junk bonds is there anything in there or even gold that you would say okay Park it there that's plain enough vanilla for you know I think treasures are very plain vanilla in the 5 to 10 year maturity area you know gold is subject to the whims of the the marketplace so to speak into a further decline in interest rates you know risk assets and even the dollar I think at this point if if the market believes that the Fed will stop raising interest rates and maybe at some point like I'm suggesting you begin to move in the other direction than the dollar will be weak relative to the yen relative to the euro you got welcome to some of the stronger emerging market countries so I wouldn't be investing in the dollar at the moment okay yeah that would be counterproductive if the Fed has to put the brakes on and slam it which you say it appears they will have to you're saying stay out of the dollar I have to then turn to just the worry overall for you what worries you the most that people aren't watching what should they weld it I think it's China and you and others have talked about China odd odd infinitum for the last six to 12 months but now what is the growth rate in China take the