저자: PaulBarron/LisaFrancois · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 2026년까지 50만 달러 상승 가능성이 있으며, 사이클 이론은 깨졌다는 것이 주된 시각이다. [Cathie Wood 전망] 캐시 우드는 비트코인이 5년 내(2026년) 50만 달러까지 오를 수 있다고 제시했고, 발언 시점 기준 신뢰도가 높아졌다는 평가가 나왔다. 포트폴리오는 비트코인 60%, 이더리움 40% 구성을 언급했다. [단기 가격 흐름] 비트코인은 4만7천 달러를 돌파했으며, 4만8천 달러 부근까지 상승했다. 이더리움은 3,400달러 수준에서 움직였고 3천 달러 이상 상승을 기대하는 분위기였다. [사이클 이론 논쟁] 과거 2013년, 2017년처럼 80% 하락 후 재상승하는 4년 사이클이 2021년에도 반복될지에 대해 진행자들은 회의적이었다. 기관 참여, ETF, NFT 등으로 시장 구조가 바뀌었다는 이유다. 다만 9월은 역사적으로 비트코인 최약세 월이었는데도 강세를 유지했다는 점을 근거로 들었다. [단기 투자자 vs 장기 투자자] 단기 투자자에게는 신중을 권고했고, 장기 투자자에게는 강한 강세 전망을 제시했다. 비트코인 시가총액이 1조 달러를 넘어 80% 폭락을 상상하기 어렵다는 입장이다. [센티먼트 차트 분석] 센티먼트 지표는 8월 초 64.12에서 8월 말 74~75 수준으로 상승했고, 9월 초 52 고점 이후 하락했다가 센티먼트가 유지되면서 반등 중이라고 해석했다. 이를 근거로 9월 말 54, 10월 56 부근 도달을 예상했고, 연말 10만 달러 도달을 여전히 보유한다고 밝혔다. [인도·수요 측면] 인도는 인구와 송금 규모 측면에서 채택 확대 가능성이 큰 국가로 언급됐다. 중국은 규제로 제외되었다. [반대 시각 소개] 비트코인 하락 가능성을 제기한 Johanna Schweifer(블록체인 스타트업 CEO)의 발언도 소개했다. [리스크] 디플레이션 전환 가능성, 규제 이슈, 단기 급락 가능성이 언급되었으나 진행자들은 장기 강세 쪽에 무게를 뒀다. [출연자 전망] Paul Barron과 Lisa Francois 모두 비트코인 장기 강세 입장이며, 단기는 조심스럽게 본다.
다듬은 글
i know you've been waiting for it we have been watching the lull in bitcoin but now there are new lights ahead of the tunnel my name is paul baron welcome back to techpath and i'm lisa francois back at it again let's kill it here we go here we go all right so big deal on bitcoin is the saw conference everybody's chit-chatting about what's happening yep and of course you know who mama wood did she drops the big you gotta love kathy wood i mean listen her uh her her sentiment on bitcoin is like motivating and mobilizing retail investors like okay we see you kathy we hear you loud and clear yeah okay so she's predicting bitcoin will surge to 500 000 yes that was not a typo 500 000 in five years 2026.
and if you look at the confidence level of kathy wood and where i followed her and still am an investor in arc uh etfs her ability mainly through research right is really in-depth so when she speaks she doesn't say this i really listen yeah right i mean and i think even though there are people within the investment community that kind of you know they kind of were were feasting on kathy a little bit when she had that little bit of downturn when tech a lot of tech stocks were taking a beating earlier this summer and i think a lot of people thought she was maybe a one-hit wonder and she said ah nah it's not that you got that yeah exactly but here's the thing um you know for someone like her she's got a long time horizon like a long-term time horizon and i think that if you're looking at the short term you may not see the vision but it's like the difference between a macro perspective versus a micro perspective no doubt so no doubt bitcoin rising tenfold 500 000 that's what she said at the assault conference confidence has gone up dramatically after its 2.0 upgrade she said so that is huge and she'd still do probably 60 bitcoin 40 on ethereum so i thought that was a still i mean even though i'm a little bit i'm kind of about there maybe not i'm not 55 45 right i i mean in terms of those two holdings but i also think that um the confidence in the you know the confidence in bitcoin like it's not waning and in spite of all of the controversy here in the united states for example yes the legislative issues in relation to cryptocurrency you haven't seen a deceleration of the market you know and big yeah like bitcoin is the best performing asset of the past decade yep and so with no marketing with no promotion it's all been organic i mean i'm not a bitcoin maximalist but you have to give props where props are due well and i think the the scenario when you look at just cryptocurrency in general the the whole movement of the crypto space is one that is a marketing engine i mean we read sentiment based on social media and those platforms are probably the best way to really identify price action which is price movement in the space which drives this investment whether you're a ta analysis a fiend or not or you look at more sentiment data which is really driven off of what's happening in the markets from a feeling perception because a lot of these projects and tokens do act and respond that way versus traditional fundamentals but i also think that you know um bitcoin not only remains the leader but it impacts the industry at large and if bitcoin gets a you know cold then the industry can can catch the flu you know so what are your thoughts on this thing where we could see bitcoin slow down with not inflation but deflation because there is some proponents out there that believe deflation is about six months away and if deflation were to occur value in dollar value is going to change which is the shift in which was a lot of investors looking at bitcoin as a safe harbor yep you know during an inflationary period do you think that that would occur if we did see that i i do not and and let me give you my you know investment thesis associated with that the fact is that you've got 21 million units of bitcoin and you know the fact that there can never be any more produced it's already being such exactly right and so i don't see that i don't see that slowing down but also too above and beyond the us dollar you know like again the global footprint associated with bitcoin i think shields it from a lot of the um euro fickle investors digital yuan not in the game uh but you do deal with potential you know aspects in terms of asia still being a major market for that but anyway bitcoin gears up for a 47k assault can bitcoin overcome and make or break this resistance i saw it trading this morning and already broken that 47k mark real quick yeah let's take it to the church right there 47 nine holding tight and that's as of today this thing breaks into 48 in a basically an eyelash she's in there and now we start to see some movement ethereum's still trading in at the 34.
let's do it love to see ethereum above 3k i mean let's see if that yeah 48 there she is 48.1 right here yep just because of you guys the techpath diamond circle because you're out there driving up the show right now you're driving the price come on guys slow it down i mean now ethereum's even moving i mean come on give us a tent a chance to buy at the dip but no you didn't but you know what i also think um uh retail investors you know hodlers right these are not people that are just you know trying to make a quick book these are people that are you know they're believers they've got diamond hands and um there's no intent to seem you know there's no intent to sell that's well true yeah i mean i haven't sold any bitcoin but you know what's so funny though who's who's using bitcoin um you know who's using bitcoin is like tender like nobody wants to sell their bitcoin right yeah that's kind of a weird like like no one is like there's all these you know companies that accept bitcoin as payment like who's who's using bitcoin as payment i have been doing using bitcoin for uh playing with the loan projects mainly for experience because we've been um you know really analyzing some of these loan products that are out there and i think we just had the guys on with you hodler a couple of weeks ago and they're you know they do 90 crypto loans 90 i did not know that that's a ridiculous wow not that we will give you nothing but bitcoin love here i you know as a respectable channel we have to give you the other side of the coin as well and that is this story coming out balance news balance news here uh so the recent fall there people are looking where bitcoin had of course clipped down just 43 crypto investors were a little anxious on the digital token this was basically a analysis or excuse me an analyst that looked at this and said maybe we are seeing a issue on uh retractions based on demand and supply yep those kind of scenarios but i'm looking at india overall i still think india is still a very big proponent of where cryptocurrency and blockchain is going i mean it's one of the most populous nations in the world yeah so you know and also from a remittance standpoint um it's also uh the country in the world that receives the most remittances yeah and i think when you look at if we're going to see mass adoption and you see it in a major country because you won't see it in china now but india would be the next sec second to the u.s being major adoption and or if it were to occur there that would be a very interesting situation back to this story uh johanna schweifer who is the ceo of like leicesterstein base core ledger a blockchain startup said there's always a possibility of a meltdown bitcoin has showed in the past it could be capable of surprises and crashes my question to you is this are and have we accelerated accelerated past the cycle theory the cycle theory as you guys all know bitcoin makes its rise it's bull run and then it drops 80 percent and it corrects that's not correct that's a drop right that's happened in 2013 that happened in 2017 does that happen in 2021 first of all no one can predict the future so there's that come on but i will say that what do you believe i think that for short-term investors um you know be be cautious um i think that you know you're starting to see the fact that it broke through 47k the fact that yeah you're gonna see some moves but i think for long-term investors i'm you know extremely bullish i think that bitcoin has shown its its resilience it's shown its ability to you know remain dominant and um again like you know when you have kathy wood and the like talking about half a million dollars you've got mastercard coming into the um into the space acquiring um an analytics company i mean there's just so many i've said it many times there's so much action happening in the industry now that can it really ever see that historical cycle again and i'm just not sure do you think we'll be talking lisa next year at this time about trading bitcoin i mean because some people may be going in at that point if we do see the 80 drop then the cycle held right and we're buying at the bottom you know i um you when you're talking about over a trillion dollar market cap uh i can't i can't envision the like floor dropping eighty percent yeah i i can't because you're going let's say it goes to 100k that's going down to 20.
right all right that would be a massive and it would also stay in line with what the trade the traditional traders out there in bitcoin have have kind of grown up on in these these market cycles and again i've often said i think this market cycle is broken now right it's alright and i feel like it's already proved it i was going to say that september has proved it september's always been a long month and we are already past the time frame in which this bull run should have happened now there are those that said well wait a minute there was a lot of fud because of china and elon and all that kind of slowed things down but i'm sure okay i would agree with that to a certain extent but i feel like there's just been so much other activity sovereign nations banking that's right you know everything retail investor all this has changed the the game has changed and september historically has been one of the worst performing months for bitcoin so to see it again like you know um um remaining strong in spite i just think that there's too many um there's this it's it's so it's like infiltrating so many different sectors you've got the retail component you've got the institutional component we're looking at like potential etfs like there's just obviously the nfts like there's just so much happening in the space that i can't see it losing um losing steam i would have to agree with you we're going to jump to the chart and show you let's jump to the chart of course all right so we scored bitcoin this was back here in what was early august in the sentiment and range of around 64.12 amp was at 67 and we started to see the lift occur right here in this window right here was august 23rd right there and we saw that move at 74 51 so a higher range at the end of august and amplification also rising yep and sure enough we saw this movement that sideways right there to the high at 52 this recent high and then of course our drop but here's the thing that's impressive to me is this right here look at that sentiment held yeah amplification held wow and what do we have we had the drop and here comes bitcoin roaring back in yep right there exactly right right into the prediction zone of where we think this is moving back from our scoring which was back on the 7th of september and we ran that through the 8th and was able to predict that window right there because this is basically our forecast on sentiment exactly and it's it it's looking like it's going to break through that line of resistance and with that i think you know our 54 high is coming we believe in late september if it hits and uh if this sentiment holds we could see a 56 sometime in october i mean listen it's got a it's got a ways to go to hit that 100k mark so i'm still holding that by end of year yeah i think we get a lot of time a lot of people think that's the window that's only if you are a believer of the cycles if you're if you're in on the cycles that's you know a different thing i know big big ben armstrong over at uh bit boy he he's a lover of the cycle so you know i can't sometimes i can't argue with him because you have to go with those things until they haven't has until they haven't occurred i kind of think maybe it has yeah yeah i'm of the school of thought that like the cycle has been broken um but you know again time will tell yep as i always say all right so you guys are tuned in over on the podcast make sure before anything i want you guys to do one thing for us and that is we're doing these user question uh episodes so drop some user questions in that you want to learn we'll do some research for you we'll get an answer back to you maybe next time when lisa and i are together and we'll pull it together for you but you're listening on the podcast you got to jump in here man oh my gosh and of course uh if you're not watching us on youtube you need to be watching us on youtube you got to see these charts you've got to experience this is about experi this is experiential experiential technical and fundamental analysis uh if you haven't subscribed as i said please do so we want to hear from you in the comments and um keep watching to keep learning to keep earning all right you guys want to hit me up on twitter it's at paul barron we'll catch you next time right here on tech bath
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