The REAL Reason Stocks Like Nvidia Are Crashing (DO THIS NOW)

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기술주 급락은 실적 기대치 미달, 실업률 상승에 따른 Sahm rule 발동 등이 겹친 결과이나, 과거 데이터상 조정·급락은 흔하고 회복에 걸리는 기간도 길지 않다고 주장. 장기 투자자는 변동성을 버텨야 하며, 엔비디아는 과거 여러 차례 큰 폭락 후 회복한 사례가 있음을 강조. 본인은 현금 비중을 늘리고 포트폴리오를 핵심 보유종목(나스닥100, SMH, 빅3 하이퍼스케일러 등)으로 압축 중이며, AI 반도체 생태계에 대한 확신을 유지한다고 밝힘.

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01. tech stocks are collapsing with some of the best companies on earth going down by more than 20% in the last month alone and whenever I see such a sharp decline end of the line for tech stocks or are there so here's everything I'll talk about upfront why tech stocks are crashing right now and how long this crash could last I'll share some solid data that I always look at whenever I get worried about the market and of course what I'm doing now that everyone is moving their money out of tech stocks you've probably heard the saying be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful well for the first time in almost a year CNN's fear and greed index is showing extreme fear but that doesn't mean that we should blindly buy stocks just because they're down since they could have much further to fall and to understand why we need to talk about what causing this big Tech crash in the first place the truth is there's a lot of factors coming together to cause this drop the first and most targeted reason is that recent earnings have underperformed analyst expectations which in my opinion have reached insane levels here check out this headline for Microsoft Microsoft shares dip as Cloud Miss overshadows better than expected revenue and earnings revenues from Microsoft's Cloud business which includes things like Azure Windows server and GitHub grew by 29% year-over-year but analysts expected 31% so the stock dropped even though Microsoft also outperformed analyst expectations for overall revenue and earnings per share here's another one alphabet meets earnings expectations but misses on YouTube ad Revenue which only accounts for about 10% of their total revenue YouTube generated 8.66 billion in Revenue while analysts expected 8.93 billion a of just 3% in Google's fourth biggest business unit while their top three business units all be expectations now to be fair there have been some very real issues causing certain stocks to drop for example Nvidia just delayed their Blackwell b200 chips because they found a design flaw unusually late in the production process that's obviously bad but regular viewers of this channel know that Blackwell got pushed up by a full year as Nvidia sped up their chip architecture cycle from 2 years to one that means Blackwell just went from being 12 months ahead of schedule to 9 months ahead of schedule don't get me wrong a delay is a delay but the pattern I'm trying to show you with Microsoft Google and Nvidia is that analyst expectations have gotten away from the reality of growing a technology business in a tough economic environment so let's talk about that next last week in economic report came out that showed job growth coming in much lower than expected and unemployment Rose to 4 4.3% which is the highest it's been since October of 2021 while no one should wish for higher unemployment one small so lining is that the Federal Reserve looks at that number to help decide when it's finally time to cut interest rates since higher unemployment leads to fewer people spending money which drives down inflation not to mention that they might cut interest rates to score some political points ahead of the US presidential election this November the results of which could have huge implications on the economy as well but the problem is this sudden spike in unemployment triggered something called the Sam rule which states that the economy is in a recession when the 3-month average unemployment level hits half a point higher than the 12-month low and while this Sam rule has predicted every major recession going back to 1960 it's one of those indicators that was created to fit the data not the other way around its creator Claudia Sam a former Economist for the White House and Federal Reserve even came out and said that the rule might not apply here and this time really could be different thanks to Growing household incomes along with resilient consumer spending and business investment but that didn't stop recession fears and headlines from spreading like wildfire but how bad are things really one of my favorite pieces of investing advice is when in doubt zoom out the NASDAQ is down by 12% over the last month alone but it's still up by almost 9% so far this year and Nvidia has collapsed by over 20% in the last month oops except it's still up by 110% this year alone but let's pretend that this isn't a normal healthy correction for tech stocks let's pretend that it really is the start of a big recession and a bad bare Market instead of letting emotions guide our decision-making let's use cold hard data just a quick note a dip or a pullback usually indicates a decline of less than 10% a correction is a drop of more than 10% but usually less than 20% and a crash is a decline of 20% or more so for example the NASDAQ is currently in a correction while Nvidia stock is crashing all right here's a chart of every Bull and Bear Market since 1956 with the recessions Shaded in Gray on this chart a bare Market is where the market crashes by 20% or more from the peak and a bull market begins from the stock market's bottom here's some interesting data points for long-term investors to consider before panicking first bull market maret last much longer than bare markets and they rise much higher than bare markets fall the average bare Market lasts for about one year Peak to bottom and the average depth of a bare Market is 36% a bare Market recovery which is where the stocks make a new all-time high from the bottom takes about 2 and 1/2 years on average that sounds scary but remember it's only 2 and 1/2 years if you bought at the exact top right before a fullon market crash that's why it's so important to be patient and not catch a falling knife waiting even a little bit can massively reduce your downside and even if you do miss the exact bottom there's a huge 2 and 1/2 year recovery window on the other side and Corrections like the one that we're in right now are much softer than crashes the average depth of a correction is just 14% it only takes 5 months on average to reach the bottom and just 4 months on average to recover also Corrections have happened every 1.2 years since 1980 which means they're actually pretty common in fact there were five separate stock market Corrections in 2020 and four in 2022 and that's just for the S&P 500 which is considered one of the safest and most stable indexes to invest in over the longterm you may not realize this but around 2third of professional active large cap fund managers and analysts underperform the S&P 500 every single year 80% of them underperform over 3 years and virtually none of them beat the S&P 500 over any 5-year period all for one simple reason they're people just like you and me they make decisions based on emotions they cut Corners when it comes to research and they consume the same CNBC Bloomberg and Yahoo finance clips that we all do even worse their jobs require them to hit performance Milestones every single quarter to justify their fees so they're forced to think short-term not just long-term and the truth is that it's easy to to say that you're a long-term investor when the market is going up which I just showed you is most of the time but what separates the Champs from the Chumps is how they handle downturns here's a chart I made for a video back in April but it applies even more today and I'll show you why by the way this is before nvidia's 10 for one split so just pretend the price says $825 instead of 824 you've heard the story a thousand times before if you invested $10,000 in Nvidia when it went public in 1999 your money would have grown by a thousandfold to be worth over $10 million in 2024 that's a 32% compound annual growth rate for 25 years straight absolutely crushing the returns of the S&P 500 and remember even though Nvidia stock is down by 20% over the last month it's still trading at over $100 per share so your $10,000 from 1999 would actually be worth around $12 million today if you could have held it that long I've been holding Nvidia stock for over 8 years and it's been one of the most difficult things I've ever done here's another version of nvidia's price chart except this time it shows you the draw Downs the top of this chart is 0% which means Nvidia stock is at a new high or 0% off the peak everything below zero shows how far it's dropped and how long it took to recover before making a new high said another way this chart shows every dip correction and crack that Nvidia has ever had so let's count them up Nvidia stock has corrected by 10% or more 31 separate times that's once every 10 months on average it's crashed by 20% or more 18 separate times not including this one that means Nvidia stock has a full-on crash every 17 months on average it's crashed by over 30% 11 of those times which means it had to recover by almost 50% to reach a new high 11 times five of those times it actually crashed by 50% or more which means it had to double every time just to break even and it straight up collapsed by 80% twice once during the dotom bubble and again during the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 and it gets even worse when you look at how long the deepest crashes took to recover if you invested in Nvidia at the top of the dotcom bubble you saw the stock go down 85% over the next year and 2 years later you were still down by by 80% it took Nvidia over 5 years to recover just in time for the global financial crisis where Nvidia stock fell over 80% again except this time instead of recovering after 5 years it was still down by around 70% it ended up taking 9 years for Nvidia stock to make a new high nine years my point is these two price charts are actually the same chart which means investors can't get the insane returns in the top chart without surviving the volatility in the bottom one and video stock is down by 6% today as I'm recording this video that means it lost more value today than all of Intel is worth as a global company I promise you that most professional money managers and stock market analysts aren't able to hold through this kind of volatility even if they had the stomach for it their bosses wouldn't let them because they have quarterly numbers that they need to hit but don't forget volatility swings both ways just last week on July 31st 2024 Nvidia stock had its single Best Day Ever it added a whopping 3029 billion in value going up 133% in one day as a $3 trillion company all right I've covered several reasons why tech stocks are crashing right now from earnings under performing very high analyst expectations to the unemployment rate triggering the Sam Rule and the Federal Reserve starting to Signal interest rate Cuts in the near future I also gave specific examples of why those things don't bother me and I showed you historical data on the depth and length of Corrections and crashes for the S&P 500 as well as Nvidia stock now that we're on the same page about the context let me tell you what I'm doing now that everyone seems to be moving their money out of tech stoc here's exactly what I'm doing now the first thing I'm doing is building my cash position I actually started building cash back in June when I sold about 13 of my Nvidia position at just over $130 per share I'll leave a link to that video in the description for you that's a good one to watch next because I share some investing rules that I use to get rich without getting lucky second I'm concentrating my portfolio down to just my core Holdings the NASDAQ 100 SMH the big three hyperscalers and a few other companies I cover often on this channel as everything goes on sale I want to be more picky with what I buy and when I buy it not less I still have some of my small cap stocks from a few years back so now might finally be the time that I take my losses depending on what's happening with interest rates what I'm not doing is rotating my money into any other kind of stocks I'm doubling down on AI semiconductors and the ecosystem behind them I strongly believe that this AI boom is real and we'll see stocks like Microsoft Google Nvidia and paler make new highs in the near future so I'm going to keep researching and covering these companies even as prices fall remember the key to finding great stocks is understanding a company's products not just their profits so whether this is a small correction or a full-on crash there's never been a better time