Bill Gross - Smart Investors Know There's Something Wrong

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BOJ는 양적완화를 과도하게 확대해 대차대조표가 약 4조 달러로 늘었고 마이너스 금리와 회사채·주식 매입까지 하고 있다. 일본 대형주 상위 10개 보유자 중 BOJ가 큰 비중을 차지하는 것으로 보여 정책 의도가 강하다는 해석이다. 다만 Gross는 현재로선 이 정책이 성공하고 있다고 보지 않는다. 엔/달러는 최근 BOJ의 추가 완화 시도와 달리 엔화가 강세로 돌아서는 역효과가 나타났고, 방향은 불확실해 하룻밤 사이 단순 매매 근거로 삼기 어렵다고 본다. BOJ와 연준 모두 2% 인플레이션 목표에 집착하고 있으며, BOJ의 실제 관심사는 인구 감소형 디플레이션과 상품 가격 하락에 따른 성장 위험 대응이다. 연준이 성명에서 해외 리스크 문구를 삭제했으나, Gross는 전 세계적으로 자산 가격이 인위적으로 높다고 보며 시스템 리스크는 여전하다고 경고한다. 브라질 디폴트 베팅은 만기가 짧아 대부분 청산됐다고 밝혔다. 특히 중국을 중심으로 GDP 대비 부채가 기하급수적으로 늘고 있어 금융시장 위험의 상징적 신호라고 평가한다. 유럽중앙은행과 일본은행의 회사채·주식 매입이 투자자에게 위험이 없다는 착각을 줄 수 있으나, 똑똑한 투자자는 시스템에 문제가 있음을 알고 있다. 투자자들은 수익을 내야 하므로 뮤지컬 체어 게임처럼 시장에 머물러 있으며, 이 인위적 시스템이 2017~2019년 이후 붕괴할 수 있다고 보지만 정확한 시점은 말하지 않는다. 결론: 시스템 붕괴 위험에 대한 장기적 경고이며, 개별 자산에 대한 명시적 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없다.

다듬은 글

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01. you know the boj really has uh gone off a deep end in terms of um you know quantitative easing they they call it quantity deving Plus+ and we'll see tonight whether or not they extend that uh what has the boj done well they've they've expanded their balance sheet to about $4 trillion dollar over the past year or two they have negative interest rates now they're buying corporate bonds and they're buying stocks um you I I was fascinated by this Mike that uh you know of the the large cap Japanese stocks of the 10 largest holding holders of these the boj is uh a holder of 90% of uh of these large cab stocks one of the 10 largest holders and so that that indicates to me that um you the boj is is really in this to uh to win it I'm not so sure that they're winning it at the moment is there a trade you could put on ahead of the bank of Japan well well mainly uh Yen dollar related you know I would think if Cota you know suggests even more in terms of uh more significant corporate bond purchases and an extension into the the stock market that that uh would would certainly affect the the Yen dollar relationship actually as you know over the past month or two what they've been trying to do in terms of more QE and more uh stock purchases has sort of backfired and uh the end has strengthened as opposed to weekend so you know it's up for grabs I wouldn't uh safely put on a trade overnight uh based upon anything that they do because uh you know the market seems to be going in reverse relative to forward in terms of what the boj wants to do do you think that the boj and the FED are in the same boat in terms of what they're trying to do here I know you don't think the FED is doing the right thing you have written that uh investors can't make money when money yields nothing well that's true I I don't I think the boj is concerned about that they're concerned about 2% inflation they're fixated on that and to a certain extent they've moved above the zero line but U you know whether or not their insurance and and savings institutions are getting a fair deal uh with negative interest rates and uh you know um a an artificial Market in most aspects I don't think that's their concern their concern is is fighting the demographic deflation and the global uh deflation in commodi that you know has placed their um their future growth in Jeopardy and um you know they're they're Allin certainly like drug is suggested but even more so um I I simply think they're they're going to try to get to 2% inflation um whether or not they can safely do that without expanding their balance sheet so significantly um I'm not I'm not sure I doubt it how much risk is in the world right now the FED took their statement about Global overseas risks out of the statement today but um is it still a concern you've made some big bets on say Brazil not defaulting are there are there concerns about systemic problems around the world still well for sure and and those Brazilian bets were very short maturities and most of them have rolled off I uh for one am concerned you know about a a global uh Marketplace in which prices are artificially High I'm concerned about debt levels especially in China that are increasing at a almost geometric Pace um you know relative to GDP um the expansion of debt relative to GDP not just in China but elsewhere uh is really symptomatic of the the risk uh that we have in terms of financial markets to the extent that um you know investors can be um can be assuaged uh you know can be convinced that they're uh relatively riskless as in the ECB buying corporate bonds and the Japanese buying corporate bonds and and stocks as well then U maybe so but uh you know let's put it this way let me put it bluntly um I I think intelligent investors know uh that there's something very wrong with the system but they also know though over the next year or two that they need to you know provide a return for investors or else they're out of business and so the guessing game becomes one of musical chairs in which uh we all Wonder or when um you know this uh system this artificial system might uh might implode and uh for the most part the guessing game is extended to 2017 and 18 and 19 but uh you know at some point uh uh the system could uh could could you know suffer a um an implosion